scholarly journals Relation between Large-Scale Circulation and European Winter Temperature: Does It Hold under Warmer Climate?

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (13) ◽  
pp. 3752-3760 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Goubanova ◽  
L. Li ◽  
P. Yiou ◽  
F. Codron
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Winter Temperature ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Weather Regimes ◽  
High Resolution Models ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The idea of using large-scale information to predict local climate variability is widely exploited in climate change impact studies as an alternative to computationally expensive high-resolution models. This approach implies the hypothesis that the statistical relationship between large-scale climate states and local variables defined for the present-day climate remains valid in the altered climate. In this paper, the concept of weather regimes is used to deduce a relationship between large-scale circulation and European winter temperature. The change in temperature with increased greenhouse gases is, however, not homogeneous among the individual regimes. As a result, the impact of the weather regimes on local temperature changes varies in the future, limiting its usefulness for refining temperature changes to the small scale.

scholarly journals Combined measurement of velocity and temperature in liquid metal convection

2019 ◽  
Vol 876 ◽  
pp. 1108-1128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Till Zürner ◽  
Felix Schindler ◽  
Tobias Vogt ◽  
Sven Eckert ◽  
Jörg Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
Reynolds Number ◽  
Liquid Metal ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Convection Cell ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Convection Flow ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Large Scale Flow ◽  
The Impact

Combined measurements of velocity components and temperature in a turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection flow at a low Prandtl number of $Pr=0.029$ and Rayleigh numbers of $10^{6}\leqslant Ra\leqslant 6\times 10^{7}$ are conducted in a series of experiments with durations of more than a thousand free-fall time units. Multiple crossing ultrasound beam lines and an array of thermocouples at mid-height allow for a detailed analysis and characterization of the complex three-dimensional dynamics of the single large-scale circulation roll in a cylindrical convection cell of unit aspect ratio which is filled with the liquid metal alloy GaInSn. We measure the internal temporal correlations of the complex large-scale flow and distinguish between short-term oscillations associated with a sloshing motion in the mid-plane as well as varying orientation angles of the velocity close to the top/bottom plates and the slow azimuthal drift of the mean orientation of the roll as a whole that proceeds on a time scale up to a hundred times slower. The coherent large-scale circulation drives a vigorous turbulence in the whole cell that is quantified by direct Reynolds number measurements at different locations in the cell. The velocity increment statistics in the bulk of the cell displays characteristic properties of intermittent small-scale fluid turbulence. We also show that the impact of the symmetry-breaking large-scale flow persists to small-scale velocity fluctuations thus preventing the establishment of fully isotropic turbulence in the cell centre. Reynolds number amplitudes depend sensitively on beam-line position in the cell such that different definitions have to be compared. The global momentum and heat transfer scalings with Rayleigh number are found to agree with those of direct numerical simulations and other laboratory experiments.

scholarly journals PREDICTION OF DYNAMIC AND QUASI-STATIC IMPACTS ON VERTICAL SEA WALLS CAUSED BY AN OVERTOPPED BORE

2018 ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Maximilian Streicher ◽  
Andreas Kortenhaus ◽  
Vincent Gruwez ◽  
Bas Hofland ◽  
Xuexue Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Impact Force ◽  
Vertical Wall ◽  
Impact Behavior ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Run Up ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Two Peaks ◽  
The Impact

This study comprises a detailed description of the individual overtopped bore impact processes against a vertical wall, situated on top of a dike. A twin peak force impact signal shape was observed with two distinct peaks during every impact. The two peaks were assigned consecutively to the dynamic components (thickness and velocity) or hydrostatic components (run-up of water at the wall) of the impacting bore. The two peaks were termed dynamic F1 and quasi-static F2 impact respectively. Based on available literature semi-empirical equations to describe either the dynamic F1 or quasi-static F2 impact force were investigated and the prediction accuracy evaluated using impact force data from large-scale experiments. The prediction accuracy of the dynamic F1 impacts was very low. The prediction accuracy of the quasi-static impact F2 was increased based on fitting the hydrostatic theory to the maximum run-up measurement at the wall. Based on these findings 80% of the maximum run-up height was effectively contributing to the maximum quasi-static force F2 on the wall. The results coincided well with previous small-scale studies (Chen et al. 2012). After deconstructing the process chain preceding an impact, using the physically most meaningful parameters to predict the impact force, evaluating on a range of existing approaches, and observing the scattered prediction results, it was concluded that the impact behavior is highly stochastic and statistical analysis would be more beneficial.

scholarly journals Characteristics of Large-Scale Circulation Affecting the Inter-Annual Precipitation Variability in Northern Sumatra Island during Boreal Summer

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 136
Author(s):  
Yahya Darmawan ◽  
Huang-Hsiung Hsu ◽  
Jia-Yuh Yu
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Moisture Budget ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Budget Analysis ◽  
Sumatra Island ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to explore the contrasting characteristics of large-scale circulation that led to the precipitation anomalies over the northern parts of Sumatra Island. Further, the impact of varying the Asian–Australian Monsoon (AAM) was investigated for triggering the precipitation variability over the study area. The moisture budget analysis was applied to quantify the most dominant component that induces precipitation variability during the JJA (June, July, and August) period. Then, the composite analysis and statistical approach were applied to confirm the result of the moisture budget. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Anaysis Interim (ERA-Interim) from 1981 to 2016, we identified 9 (nine) dry and 6 (six) wet years based on precipitation anomalies, respectively. The dry years (wet years) anomalies over the study area were mostly supported by downward (upward) vertical velocity anomaly instead of other variables such as specific humidity, horizontal velocity, and evaporation. In the dry years (wet years), there is a strengthening (weakening) of the descent motion, which triggers a reduction (increase) of convection over the study area. The overall downward (upward) motion of westerly (easterly) winds appears to suppress (support) the convection and lead to negative (positive) precipitation anomaly in the whole region but with the largest anomaly over northern parts of Sumatra. The AAM variability proven has a significant role in the precipitation variability over the study area. A teleconnection between the AAM and other global circulations implies the precipitation variability over the northern part of Sumatra Island as a regional phenomenon. The large-scale tropical circulation is possibly related to the PWC modulation (Pacific Walker Circulation).

scholarly journals Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in the EC-Earth global climate model

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1383-1402 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Davini ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Susanna Corti ◽  
Hannah M. Christensen ◽  
Stephan Juricke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stochastic Physics

Abstract. The Climate SPHINX (Stochastic Physics HIgh resolutioN eXperiments) project is a comprehensive set of ensemble simulations aimed at evaluating the sensitivity of present and future climate to model resolution and stochastic parameterisation. The EC-Earth Earth system model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in a large ensemble of 30-year climate integrations at five different atmospheric horizontal resolutions (from 125 up to 16 km). The project includes more than 120 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979–2008) and a climate change projection (2039–2068), together with coupled transient runs (1850–2100). A total of 20.4 million core hours have been used, made available from a single year grant from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe), and close to 1.5 PB of output data have been produced on SuperMUC IBM Petascale System at the Leibniz Supercomputing Centre (LRZ) in Garching, Germany. About 140 TB of post-processed data are stored on the CINECA supercomputing centre archives and are freely accessible to the community thanks to an EUDAT data pilot project. This paper presents the technical and scientific set-up of the experiments, including the details on the forcing used for the simulations performed, defining the SPHINX v1.0 protocol. In addition, an overview of preliminary results is given. An improvement in the simulation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking following resolution increase is observed. It is also shown that including stochastic parameterisation in the low-resolution runs helps to improve some aspects of the tropical climate – specifically the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the tropical rainfall variability. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small-scale processes on the large-scale climate variability either explicitly (with high-resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low-resolution simulations).

scholarly journals Impacts of Large-Scale Circulation on Urban Ambient Concentrations of Gaseous Elemental Mercury in New York, USA

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huiting Mao ◽  
Dolly Hall ◽  
Zhuyun Ye ◽  
Ying Zhou ◽  
Dirk Felton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
North American ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Measurement Data ◽  
Elemental Mercury ◽  
Urban Site ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Gaseous Elemental Mercury ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of large-scale circulation on urban gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) was investigated through analysis of 2008–2015 measurement data from an urban site in New York City (NYC), New York, USA. Distinct annual cycles were observed in 2009–2010 with mixing ratios in warm seasons (i.e. spring–summer) 10–20 ppqv (~ 10 %–25 %) higher than in cool seasons (i.e. fall–winter). This annual cycle was disrupted in 2011 by an anomalously strong influence of the North American trough in that warm season and was reproduced in 2014 with annual amplitude enhanced up to ~ 70 ppqv associated with a particularly strong Bermuda High. North American trough axis index (TAI) and intensity index (TII) were used to characterize the effect of the North American trough on NYC GEM especially in winter and summer. The intensity and position of the Bermuda High had a significant impact on GEM in warm seasons supported by a strong correlation (r reaching 0.96, p 

scholarly journals Marine Rapid Environmental Assessment in the Gulf of Taranto: a multiscale approach

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (12) ◽  
pp. 2623-2639 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadia Pinardi ◽  
Vladyslav Lyubartsev ◽  
Nicola Cardellicchio ◽  
Claudio Caporale ◽  
Stefania Ciliberti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Waters ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Multiscale Approach ◽  
Mesoscale Variability ◽  
Large Scale Circulation ◽  
Eddy Field ◽  
Multiscale Sampling ◽  
Circulation Structure

Abstract. A multiscale sampling experiment was carried out in the Gulf of Taranto (eastern Mediterranean) providing the first synoptic evidence of the large-scale circulation structure and associated mesoscale variability. The mapping of the mesoscale and large-scale geostrophic circulation showed the presence of an anticyclonic large-scale gyre occupying the central open ocean area of the Gulf of Taranto. On the periphery of the gyre upwelling is evident where surface waters are colder and saltier than at the center of the gyre. Over a 1-week period, the rim current of the gyre undergoes large changes which are interpreted as baroclinic–barotropic instabilities, generating small-scale cyclonic eddies in the periphery of the anticyclone. The eddies are generally small, one of which can be classified as a submesoscale eddy due to its size. This eddy field modulates the upwelling regime in the gyre periphery.

scholarly journals Geographical and logistical factors of sustainable development of rural tourism in the context of regional economy

2016 ◽  
pp. 9-14
Author(s):  
I. Smyrnov
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Economy ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Rural Tourism ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Resource Base ◽  
Tourist Flows ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Impact

Rural tourism is now seen as an important direction of development of the regional economy. From the perspective of sustainable development rural tourism affects the economic, social and environmental aspects of the regional and local economy. Rural tourism is closely linked with agrotourism, eco-tourism, natural tourism and so on. Sustainable rural tourism can be realized by applying logistic, geographic and marketing approaches as components of sustainable development strategies. Logistics approach is determined by logistic potential of resource base of rural tourism and appropriate tourist flows regulation. In this context in the article the concept of tourism capacity or capacity of the resource base of rural tourism is used. The problem of the definition of tourism pressure on the resource base of rural tourism, particularly in natural landscapes is disclosed. Unlike environmental and recrealogical sciences, which stop at the capacity definition of the resource base of tourism, tourism logistics compares this figure with the existing tourist flows and accordingly determines the safe way of tourism management to ensure its sustainable nature. It was shown that these strategies boil down to two basic types – the further development of tourism in a particular area or limit such activities to conserve the resource base of tourism. Recreational (travel) load is the indicator that reflects the impact of tourism on the resource base of tourism (especially landscape complex), expressed by the number of tourists or tourists-days per area unit or per tourist site for the certain period of time (day, month, season year). There are actual, allowable (the maximum) and destructive (dangerous) types of travel load. The latter can lead recreational area or resource base of rural tourism to destruction. Thus, depending on the intensity of tourism resource base using in rural tourism it may change – according to tourist consumption. Large number of tourists affects the entire range of recreational destinations and their individual components. The most vulnerable part of the environment in this sense is vegetation, except that significant changes may occur with soil, water bodies, air and so on. The geographic dimension of the problem of rural tourism sustainable development includes the concept of zoning, ie the division of the territory, offering to develop rural tourism in several zones with different modes of travel usage – from a total ban (in protected areas) for complete freedom with transitional stages, involving various limit degrees in the development of rural tourism. Marketing approach reflects the application of the curve R. Butler to the stages of development of rural tourism destinations with the release of such steps as: research, involvement, development, consolidation, stagnation (also called “saturation”), revival or decline. Shown the models that link the stage of resource base tourist development (under “Curve Butler”), strength of tourism consumption the magnitude of such effects (eg weak (disperse) impact in large scale, strong (concentrated) impact in large scale, strong (concentrated) impact in small scale, weak (disperse) impact in small scale), dynamics of tourism development at the territory.

scholarly journals Climate SPHINX: evaluating the impact of resolution and stochastic physics parameterisations in climate simulations

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paolo Davini ◽  
Jost von Hardenberg ◽  
Susanna Corti ◽  
Hannah M. Christensen ◽  
Stephan Juricke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Pilot Project ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Low Resolution ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Advanced Computing ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stochastic Physics

Abstract. The Climate SPHINX (Stochastic Physics HIgh resolutioN eXperiments) project is a comprehensive set of ensemble simulations aimed at evaluating the sensitivity of present and future climate to model resolution and stochastic parameterisation. The EC-Earth Earth-System Model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in a large ensemble of 30-year climate integrations at five different atmospheric horizontal resolutions (from 125 km up to 16 km). The project includes more than 120 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979–2008) and a climate change projection (2039–2068), together with coupled transient runs (1850–2100). A total of 20.4 million core hours have been used, made available from a single year grant from PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe), and close to 1.5 PBytes of output data have been produced on SuperMUC IBM Petascale System at the Leibniz Supercomputing Center (LRZ) in Garching, Germany. About 140 TBytes of post-processed data are stored on the CINECA supercomputing center archives and are freely accessible to the community thanks to an EUDAT Data Pilot project. This paper presents the technical and scientific setup of the experiments, including the details on the forcing used for the simulations performed, defining the SPHINX v1.0 protocol. In addition, an overview of preliminary results is given: an improvement in the simulation of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric blocking following resolution increases is observed. It is also shown that including stochastic parameterisation in the low resolution runs helps to improve some aspects of the tropical climate – specifically the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the tropical rainfall variability. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small scale processes on the large scale climate variability either explicitly (with high resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low resolution simulations).

Enhancement of seasonal hydrological forecasting with “pattern-based” large-scale climatology 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Yang ◽  
Kean Foster ◽  
Ilias G. Pechlivanidis
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Fuzzy Rule ◽  
River System ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Streamflow Prediction ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Weather Regimes ◽  
Hydrological Forecasting ◽  
Teleconnection Indices

<p>The hydrological forecasting on seasonal (up to 7 months ahead) timescales is needed for decision-making in the hydropower sector. Being one of the vital influencing factors on hydro-production, a lot of development in dynamical forecasting at seasonal timescales has been done recently. However, the forecast bias still remains in different variables and consequently the skill of corresponding streamflow forecasts varies from month to month.</p><p>This study aims to explore the potential for “pattern-based” seasonal hydrological forecasts that make use of hydrological weather regimes and teleconnection indices to improve forecast skill. The work is built on the hypothesis that hydrological weather regimes and teleconnection indices can be used to select analogue years (setting an ensemble) from a record of historical precipitation and temperature data with which to force a hydrological model to generate tailored seasonal forecasts of reservoir inflows. The hydrological weather regimes have been classified based on the concept of fuzzy sets using the anomalies of daily mean sea level pressure from reanalysis data (i.e., ERA-Interim). Precipitation records, measured in the Umeälven river basin during 1981-2016 are used as local observations to optimize each fuzzy rule that describes a type of “average” variability of local climate in terms of the frequency and magnitude of precipitation events. The teleconnection indices are compiled from the Climate Prediction Center, which describe global atmospheric variability. The methodology has been applied to 84 sub-catchments across seven of the most important hydropower producing river systems in Northern Sweden. However, the performance for the Umeälven river system is of particular interest here.</p><p>Comparing to the traditional Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method, the “pattern-based” seasonal hydrological forecasting shows a marked improvement, which is likely due to the weighted analogue-ESP approach as well as the selected analogues using the large-scale climate information described by hydrological weather regimes and teleconnection indices. The general performance of the two different approaches for selecting the analogues are similar; however, occasionally there are large differences in both the best analysis lead times and the spread of skill across the sub-catchments suggesting that those results are achieved using analogues based on different physical processes.</p>

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