The Convective Instability Pathway to Warm Season Drought in Texas. Part II: Free-Tropospheric Modulation of Convective Inhibition

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (17) ◽  
pp. 4474-4488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boksoon Myoung ◽  
John W. Nielsen-Gammon
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Convective Instability ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Air Transport ◽  
Southern United States ◽  
Back Trajectory ◽  
Convective Inhibition ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract This study is concerned with the modulation by convective instability of summertime precipitation in Texas as a mechanism for maintaining or enhancing drought. The important role of convective inhibition (CIN), its dependence on the temperature at 700 hPa and the surface dewpoint, and the mechanism by which soil moisture modulates precipitation through CIN were described in Part I of this two-part series study. This study, Part II, examines the dynamic and physical processes controlling the temperature at 700 hPa and elucidates the large-scale influences on convective instability and precipitation integrating the principal processes found in both Parts I and II. Back-trajectory analysis indicates that a significant contributor to warming at 700 hPa is the inversion caused by warm air transport from the Rocky Mountains and the Mexican Plateau where the surface potential temperature is greater than 307.5 K, rather than by subsidence. It was found that downward motion and warm air transport are enhanced in Texas when an upper-level anticyclonic circulation develops in the southern United States. Upper-level anticyclonic circulations in the southern United States, one of the distinctive features of central U.S. droughts, strongly affect Texas summertime precipitation by modulating the thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere and thus convective instability. Stationary anticyclonic anomalies increase CIN not only by enhancing warm air transport from the high terrain but also by suppressing the occurrence of traveling disturbances. The resulting reduced precipitation and dry soil significantly modulate surface conditions, which elevates CIN and decreases precipitation. The aforementioned chain reaction of upper-level anticyclone influences that is expected to play an important role in initiating and maintaining Texas summer droughts can be understood within the context of CIN.

scholarly journals The Convective Instability Pathway to Warm Season Drought in Texas. Part I: The Role of Convective Inhibition and Its Modulation by Soil Moisture

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (17) ◽  
pp. 4461-4473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Boksoon Myoung ◽  
John W. Nielsen-Gammon
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Convective Instability ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Back Trajectory ◽  
Atmospheric Processes ◽  
Dewpoint Temperature ◽  
Convective Inhibition

Abstract This research is designed to investigate how convective instability influences monthly mean precipitation in Texas in the summertime and to examine the modulation of convective instability and precipitation by local and regional forcings. Since drought results from the accumulated effects of deficient precipitation over time, this study is expected to shed light on the physical and dynamical mechanisms of the initiation and maintenance of serious droughts as well. The focus in Part I of this two-part study is on identification of the controlling convective parameters and, in turn, the surface-based processes that cause variations in these parameters. NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data and observed precipitation data, correlation analysis, multiple linear regression analysis, and back-trajectory analysis are used to reveal the underlying dynamics of their linkage and causality. Monthly mean precipitation is modified mainly by convective inhibition (CIN) rather than by convective available potential energy (CAPE) or by precipitable water. Excessive CIN is caused by surface dryness and warming at 700 hPa, leading to precipitation deficits on a monthly time scale. While the dewpoint temperature and thermodynamics at the surface are greatly affected by the soil moisture, the temperature at 700 hPa was found to be statistically independent of the surface dewpoint temperature since the 700-hPa temperature represents free-atmospheric processes. (These free-atmospheric processes are the focus of the companion paper.) Finally, the strong correlations among precipitation, soil moisture, and CIN, as well as their underlying physical processes, suggest that the tight linkage between precipitation and soil moisture is not only due to the impacts of precipitation on soil moisture but also to the feedbacks of soil moisture on precipitation by controlling CIN.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Cloud-Resolving Simulations of Warm-Season Convection to Cloud Microphysics Parameterizations

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (8) ◽  
pp. 2854-2868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changhai Liu ◽  
Mitchell W. Moncrieff
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Mixed Phase ◽  
Fine Grid ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Heating Profiles ◽  
Microphysical Parameterization

Abstract This paper investigates the effects of cloud microphysics parameterizations on simulations of warm-season precipitation at convection-permitting grid spacing. The objective is to assess the sensitivity of summertime convection predictions to the bulk microphysics parameterizations (BMPs) at fine-grid spacings applicable to the next generation of operational numerical weather prediction models. Four microphysical parameterization schemes are compared: simple ice (Dudhia), four-class mixed phase (Reisner et al.), Goddard five-class mixed phase (Tao and Simpson), and five-class mixed phase with graupel (Reisner et al.). The experimentation involves a 7-day episode (3–9 July 2003) of U.S. midsummer convection under moderate large-scale forcing. Overall, the precipitation coherency manifested as eastward-moving organized convection in the lee of the Rockies is insensitive to the choice of the microphysics schemes, and the latent heating profiles are also largely comparable among the BMPs. The upper-level condensate and cloudiness, upper-level radiative cooling/heating, and rainfall spectrum are the most sensitive, whereas the domain-mean rainfall rate and areal coverage display moderate sensitivity. Overall, the three mixed-phase schemes outperform the simple ice scheme, but a general conclusion about the degree of sophistication in the microphysics treatment and the performance is not achievable.

scholarly journals A Dynamical and Statistical Characterization of U.S. Extreme Precipitation Events and Their Associated Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 1307-1326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siyu Zhao ◽  
Yi Deng ◽  
Robert X. Black
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Base Function ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Statistical Characterization ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract Regional patterns of extreme precipitation events occurring over the continental United States are identified via hierarchical cluster analysis of observed daily precipitation for the period 1950–2005. Six canonical extreme precipitation patterns (EPPs) are isolated for the boreal warm season and five for the cool season. The large-scale meteorological pattern (LMP) inducing each EPP is identified and used to create a “base function” for evaluating a climate model’s potential for accurately representing the different patterns of precipitation extremes. A parallel analysis of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), reveals that the CCSM4 successfully captures the main U.S. EPPs for both the warm and cool seasons, albeit with varying degrees of accuracy. The model’s skill in simulating each EPP tends to be positively correlated with its capability in representing the associated LMP. Model bias in the occurrence frequency of a governing LMP is directly related to the frequency bias in the corresponding EPP. In addition, however, discrepancies are found between the CCSM4’s representation of LMPs and EPPs over regions such as the western United States and Midwest, where topographic precipitation influences and organized convection are prominent, respectively. In these cases, the model representation of finer-scale physical processes appears to be at least equally important compared to the LMPs in driving the occurrence of extreme precipitation.

Increasing Frequency of Flood Events across the Central United States: A Weather-Type Perspective

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Villarini ◽  
Wei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Weather Type ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Weather Types ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Increasing Trends

<p>The frequency of flood events has been increasing across large areas of the central United States since the second half of the 20<sup>th</sup> century; these increasing trends have been largely related to changes in precipitation. The aim of this presentation is to provide insights into the possible reasons responsible for these changes, providing basic information that may enhance our capability of predicting and projecting these changes.</p><p>This study highlights the role of weather types in explaining the observed changes in precipitation and, consequently, in the frequency of flood events. More specifically, we identify five weather types from daily 500-hPa geopotential height using the k-means cluster analysis. Consistent with their distinct large-scale atmospheric patterns, these weather types exert different effects on precipitation in the central United States. Because of the strong moisture transport, strengthened low-level jet stream and wavy upper-level polar jet stream located in the western United States, among the five weather types weather-type 1 exerts the strongest impacts on precipitation, accounting for up to 40% of the total precipitation over the study region. Moreover, we detect a significant upward trend in the number and persistency of these two weather types for 1948–2019, suggesting a rising risk of heavy and long-lasting precipitation across the central United States.</p>

scholarly journals Synoptic-Scale Flow and Valley Cold Pool Evolution in the Western United States

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1625-1643 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather Dawn Reeves ◽  
David J. Stensrud
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Cold Pool ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Cold Pools ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Forecast Problem

Abstract Valley cold pools (VCPs), which are trapped, cold layers of air at the bottoms of basins or valleys, pose a significant problem for forecasters because they can lead to several forms of difficult-to-forecast and hazardous weather such as fog, freezing rain, or poor air quality. Numerical models have historically failed to routinely provide accurate guidance on the formation and demise of VCPs, making the forecast problem more challenging. In some case studies of persistent wintertime VCPs, there is a connection between the movement of upper-level waves and the timing of VCP formation and decay. Herein, a 3-yr climatology of persistent wintertime VCPs for five valleys and basins in the western United States is performed to see how often VCP formation and decay coincides with synoptic-scale (∼200–2000 km) wave motions. Valley cold pools are found to form most frequently as an upper-level ridge approaches the western United States and in response to strong midlevel warming. The VCPs usually last as long as the ridge is over the area and usually only end when a trough, and its associated midlevel cooling, move over the western United States. In fact, VCP strength appears to be almost entirely dictated by midlevel temperature changes, which suggests large-scale forcing is dominant for this type of VCP most of the time.

Objective Categorization of Heavy-Rain-Producing MCS Synoptic Types by Rotated Principal Component Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (5) ◽  
pp. 1716-1737 ◽  
Author(s):  
John M. Peters ◽  
Russ S. Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
Principal Component Analysis ◽  
Temperature Gradient ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Component Analysis ◽  
Synoptic Type ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract In this research, rotated principal component analysis was applied to the atmospheric fields associated with a large sample of heavy-rain-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Cluster analysis in the subspace defined by the leading two resulting principal components revealed two subtypes with distinct synoptic and mesoscale characteristics, which are referred to as warm-season-type and synoptic-type events, respectively. Subsequent composite analysis showed that both subtypes typically occurred on the cool side of a quasi-stationary, low-level frontal boundary, within a region of locally maximized low-level convergence and warm advection. Synoptic-type events, which tended to exhibit greater horizontal extent than warm-season-type events, typically occurred downstream of a progressive upper-level trough, along a low-level potential temperature gradient with the warmest air to the south and southeast. Warm-season-type events, on the other hand, occurred within the right-entrance region of a minimally to anticyclonically curved upper-level jet streak, along a low-level potential temperature gradient with the warmest low-level air to the southwest. Synoptic-scale forcing for ascent was stronger in synoptic-type events, while low-level moisture was greater in warm-season-type events. Warm-season-type events were frequently preceded by the passage of a trailing-stratiform- (TS) type MCS, whereas synoptic-type events often occurred prior to the passage of a TS-type system. Analysis of the composite vertical wind profiles at the event location suggests that quasi-stationary behavior in warm-season events predominantly resulted from upstream propagation that nearly canceled advection by the mean steering flow, whereas in the case of synoptic-type events training predominantly resulted from system motion that paralleled a front.

scholarly journals Multiscale Variability of the Flow during the North American Monsoon Experiment

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (9) ◽  
pp. 1628-1648 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard H. Johnson ◽  
Paul E. Ciesielski ◽  
Brian D. McNoldy ◽  
Peter J. Rogers ◽  
Richard K. Taft
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North American ◽  
Gulf Of California ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
North American Monsoon ◽  
Return Flow ◽  
Southwestern United States ◽  
The North ◽  
Upper Level

Abstract The 2004 North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) provided an unprecedented observing network for studying the structure and evolution of the North American monsoon. This paper focuses on multiscale characteristics of the flow during NAME from the large scale to the mesoscale using atmospheric sounding data from the enhanced observing network. The onset of the 2004 summer monsoon over the NAME region accompanied the typical northward shift of the upper-level anticyclone or monsoon high over northern Mexico into the southwestern United States, but in 2004 this shift occurred slightly later than normal and the monsoon high did not extend as far north as usual. Consequently, precipitation over the southwestern United States was slightly below normal, although increased troughiness over the Great Plains contributed to increased rainfall over eastern New Mexico and western Texas. The first major pulse of moisture into the Southwest occurred around 13 July in association with a strong Gulf of California surge. This surge was linked to the westward passages of Tropical Storm Blas to the south and an upper-level inverted trough over northern Texas. The development of Blas appeared to be favored as an easterly wave moved into the eastern Pacific during the active phase of a Madden–Julian oscillation. On the regional scale, sounding data reveal a prominent sea breeze along the east shore of the Gulf of California, with a deep return flow as a consequence of the elevated Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) immediately to the east. Subsidence produced a dry layer over the gulf, whereas a deep moist layer existed over the west slopes of the SMO. A prominent nocturnal low-level jet was present on most days over the northern gulf. The diurnal cycle of heating and moistening (Q1 and Q2) over the SMO was characterized by deep convective profiles in the mid- to upper troposphere at 1800 LT, followed by stratiform-like profiles at midnight, consistent with the observed diurnal evolution of precipitation over this coastal mountainous region. The analyses in the core NAME domain are based on a gridded dataset derived from atmospheric soundings only and, therefore, should prove useful in validating reanalyses and regional models.

Cool- and Warm-Season Precipitation Reconstructions over Western New Mexico

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (13) ◽  
pp. 3729-3750 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. W. Stahle ◽  
M. K. Cleaveland ◽  
H. D. Grissino-Mayer ◽  
R. D. Griffin ◽  
F. K. Fye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
New Mexico ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Annual Ring ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Atmospheric Dynamics ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Cool Season ◽  
The North ◽  
Average Precipitation

Abstract Precipitation over the southwestern United States exhibits distinctive seasonality, and contrasting ocean–atmospheric dynamics are involved in the interannual variability of cool- and warm-season totals. Tree-ring chronologies based on annual-ring widths of conifers in the southwestern United States are well correlated with accumulated precipitation and have previously been used to reconstruct cool-season and annual precipitation totals. However, annual-ring-width chronologies cannot typically be used to derive a specific record of summer monsoon-season precipitation. Some southwestern conifers exhibit a clear anatomical transition from the earlywood and latewood components of the annual ring, and these exactly dated subannual ring components can be measured separately and used as unique proxies of cool- and warm-season precipitation and their associated large-scale ocean–atmospheric dynamics. Two 2139-yr-long reconstructions of cool- (November–May) and early-warm season (July) precipitation have been developed from ancient conifers and relict wood at El Malpais National Monument, New Mexico. Both reconstructions have been verified on independent precipitation data and reproduce the spatial correlation patterns detected in the large-scale SST and 500-mb height fields using instrumental precipitation data from New Mexico. Above-average precipitation in the cool-season reconstruction is related to El Niño conditions and to the positive phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation. Above-average precipitation in July is related to the onset of the North American monsoon over New Mexico and with anomalies in the 500-mb height field favoring moisture advection into the Southwest from the North Pacific, the Gulf of California, and the Gulf of Mexico. Cool- and warm-season precipitation totals are not correlated on an interannual basis in the 74-yr instrumental or 2139-yr reconstructed records, but wet winter–spring extremes tend to be followed by dry conditions in July and very dry winters tend to be followed by wet Julys in the reconstructions. This antiphasing of extremes could arise from the hypothesized cool- to early-warm-season change in the sign of large-scale ocean–atmospheric forcing of southwestern precipitation, from the negative land surface feedback hypothesis in which winter–spring precipitation and snow cover reduce surface warming and delay the onset of the monsoon, or perhaps from an interaction of both large-scale and regional forcing. Episodes of simultaneous interseasonal drought (“perfect” interseasonal drought) persisted for a decade or more during the 1950s drought of the instrumental era and during the eighth- and sixteenth-century droughts, which appear to have been two of the most profound droughts over the Southwest in the past 1400 yr. Simultaneous interseasonal drought is doubly detrimental to dry-land crop yields and is estimated to have occurred during the mid-seventeenth-century famines of colonial New Mexico but was less frequent during the late-thirteenth-century Great Drought among the Anasazi, which was most severe during the cool season.

scholarly journals Diurnal Cycle of Convective Instability around the Central Mountains in Japan during the Warm Season

2005 ◽  
Vol 62 (5) ◽  
pp. 1626-1636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomonori Sato ◽  
Fujio Kimura
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Convective Instability ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Precipitable Water ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
High Temporal Resolution ◽  
Mountainous Areas ◽  
Diurnal Cycles

Abstract Convective rainfall often shows a clear diurnal cycle. The nighttime peak of convective activity prevails in various regions near the world's mountains. The influence of the water vapor and convective instability upon nocturnal precipitation is investigated using a numerical model and observed data. Recent developments in GPS meteorology allow the estimation of precipitable water vapor (PWV) with a high temporal resolution. A dense network has been established in Japan. The GPS analysis in August 2000 provides the following results: In the early evening, a high-GPS-PWV region forms over mountainous areas because of the convergence of low-level moisture, which gradually propagates toward the adjacent plain before midnight. A region of convection propagates simultaneously eastward into the plain. The precipitating frequency correlates fairly well with the GPS-PWV and attains a maximum value at night over the plain. The model also provides similar characteristics in the diurnal cycles of rainfall and high PWV. Abundant moisture accumulates over the mountainous areas in the afternoon and then advects continuously toward the plain by the ambient wind. The specific humidity greatly increases at about the 800-hPa level over the plain at night, and the PWV reaches its nocturnal maximum. The increase in the specific humidity causes an increase of equivalent potential temperature at about the 800-hPa level; as a result, the convective instability index becomes more unstable over the plain at night. These findings are consistent with the diurnal cycle of the observed precipitating frequency.

Warm-Season Soil-Moisture Deficits in the Southern United States

2008 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer K. Doublin ◽  
Andrew J. Grundstein
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Southern United States
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