Extreme Events and the General Circulation: Observations and Stochastic Model Dynamics

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (9) ◽  
pp. 2785-2804 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Sura ◽  
Maxime Perron
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Model ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Gaussian Potential ◽  
Relative Potential ◽  
Non Gaussian ◽  
Potential Enstrophy

Abstract This study explores the dynamical role of non-Gaussian potential vorticity variability (extreme events) in the zonally averaged circulation of the atmosphere within a stochastic framework. First the zonally averaged skewness and kurtosis patterns of relative and potential vorticity anomalies from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data are presented. In the troposphere, midlatitude regions of near-zero skewness coincide with regions of maximum variability. Equatorward of the Northern Hemisphere storm track positive relative/potential vorticity skewness is observed. Poleward of the same storm track the vorticity skewness is negative. In the Southern Hemisphere the relation is reversed, resulting in negative relative/potential vorticity skewness equatorward, and positive skewness poleward of the storm track. The dynamical role of extreme events in the zonally averaged general circulation is then explored in terms of the potential enstrophy budget by linking eddy enstrophy fluxes to a stochastic representation of non-Gaussian potential vorticity anomalies. The stochastic model assumes that potential vorticity anomalies are advected by a random velocity field. The assumption of stochastic advection allows for a closed expression of the meridional enstrophy flux: the potential enstrophy flux is proportional to the potential vorticity skewness. There is some evidence of this relationship in the observations. That is, potential enstrophy fluxes might be linked to non-Gaussian potential vorticity variability. Thus, extreme events may presumably play an important role in the potential enstrophy budget and the related general circulation of the atmosphere.

scholarly journals Non-Gaussian statistics in global atmospheric dynamics: a study with a 10 240-member ensemble Kalman filter using an intermediate atmospheric general circulation model

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 211-225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keiichi Kondo ◽  
Takemasa Miyoshi
Keyword(s):  
Kalman Filter ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation Model ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Ensemble Size ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Atmospheric General Circulation ◽  
Gaussian Statistics ◽  
Non Gaussian

Abstract. We previously performed local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) experiments with up to 10 240 ensemble members using an intermediate atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). While the previous study focused on the impact of localization on the analysis accuracy, the present study focuses on the probability density functions (PDFs) represented by the 10 240-member ensemble. The 10 240-member ensemble can resolve the detailed structures of the PDFs and indicates that non-Gaussianity is caused in those PDFs by multimodality and outliers. The results show that the spatial patterns of the analysis errors are similar to those of non-Gaussianity. While the outliers appear randomly, large multimodality corresponds well with large analysis error, mainly in the tropical regions and storm track regions where highly nonlinear processes appear frequently. Therefore, we further investigate the life cycle of multimodal PDFs, and show that they are mainly generated by the on–off switch of convective parameterization in the tropical regions and by the instability associated with advection in the storm track regions. Sensitivity to the ensemble size suggests that approximately 1000 ensemble members are necessary in the intermediate AGCM-LETKF system to represent the detailed structures of non-Gaussian PDFs such as skewness and kurtosis; the higher-order non-Gaussian statistics are more vulnerable to the sampling errors due to a smaller ensemble size.

scholarly journals On the Wind Power Input to the Ocean General Circulation

2012 ◽  
Vol 42 (8) ◽  
pp. 1357-1365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoming Zhai ◽  
Helen L. Johnson ◽  
David P. Marshall ◽  
Carl Wunsch
Keyword(s):  
Wind Power ◽  
Gulf Stream ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Kuroshio Extension ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Power Input ◽  
Surface Velocity ◽  
Ocean General Circulation

Abstract The wind power input to the ocean general circulation is usually calculated from the time-averaged wind products. Here, this wind power input is reexamined using available observations, focusing on the role of the synoptically varying wind. Power input to the ocean general circulation is found to increase by over 70% when 6-hourly winds are used instead of monthly winds. Much of the increase occurs in the storm-track regions of the Southern Ocean, Gulf Stream, and Kuroshio Extension. This result holds irrespective of whether the ocean surface velocity is accounted for in the wind stress calculation. Depending on the fate of the high-frequency wind power input, the power input to the ocean general circulation relevant to deep-ocean mixing may be less than previously thought. This study emphasizes the difficulty of choosing appropriate forcing for ocean-only models.

ON EVALUATION OF THE ROLE OF THERMAL AND WIND FACTORS FOR A PHYSICAL MODEL OF THE WORLD OCEAN GENERAL CIRCULATION SYSTEM

2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 80-91
Author(s):  
V. G. Neiman
Keyword(s):  
Physical Model ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
Circulation System ◽  
The Public ◽  
The World ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Conceptual Foundations

The main content of the work consists of certain systematization and addition of longexisting, but eventually deformed and partly lost qualitative ideas about the role of thermal and wind factors that determine the physical mechanism of the World Ocean’s General Circulation System (OGCS). It is noted that the conceptual foundations of the theory of the OGCS in one form or another are contained in the works of many well-known hydrophysicists of the last century, but the aggregate, logically coherent description of the key factors determining the physical model of the OGCS in the public literature is not so easy to find. An attempt is made to clarify and concretize some general ideas about the two key blocks that form the basis of an adequate physical model of the system of oceanic water masses motion in a climatic scale. Attention is drawn to the fact that when analyzing the OGCS it is necessary to take into account not only immediate but also indirect effects of thermal and wind factors on the ocean surface. In conclusion, it is noted that, in the end, by the uneven flow of heat to the surface of the ocean can be explained the nature of both external and almost all internal factors, in one way or another contributing to the excitation of the general, or climatic, ocean circulation.

scholarly journals Changes in U.S. East Coast Cyclone Dynamics with Climate Change

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 468-484 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher G. Marciano ◽  
Gary M. Lackmann ◽  
Walter A. Robinson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
East Coast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sea Level Pressure ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Field Amplification ◽  
Lateral Boundary Conditions ◽  
Relative Potential

Abstract Previous studies investigating the impacts of climate change on extratropical cyclones have primarily focused on changes in the frequency, intensity, and distribution of these events. Fewer studies have directly investigated changes in the storm-scale dynamics of individual cyclones. Precipitation associated with these events is projected to increase with warming owing to increased atmospheric water vapor content. This presents the potential for enhancement of cyclone intensity through increased lower-tropospheric diabatic potential vorticity generation. This hypothesis is tested using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to simulate individual wintertime extratropical cyclone events along the United States East Coast in present-day and future thermodynamic environments. Thermodynamic changes derived from an ensemble of GCMs for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) A2 emissions scenario are applied to analyzed initial and lateral boundary conditions of observed strongly developing cyclone events, holding relative humidity constant. The perturbed boundary conditions are then used to drive future simulations of these strongly developing events. Present-to-future changes in the storm-scale dynamics are assessed using Earth-relative and storm-relative compositing. Precipitation increases at a rate slightly less than that dictated by the Clausius–Clapeyron relation with warming. Increases in cyclone intensity are seen in the form of minimum sea level pressure decreases and a strengthened 10-m wind field. Amplification of the low-level jet occurs because of the enhancement of latent heating. Storm-relative potential vorticity diagnostics indicate a strengthening of diabatic potential vorticity near the cyclone center, thus supporting the hypothesis that enhanced latent heat release is responsible for this regional increase in future cyclone intensity.

“Modes of Variability” and Climate Change

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 2639-2658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grant Branstator ◽  
Frank Selten
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Stochastic Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Meridional Wind ◽  
Model Atmosphere ◽  
Linear Pattern ◽  
Modes Of Variability ◽  
Mean State

Abstract A 62-member ensemble of coupled general circulation model (GCM) simulations of the years 1940–2080, including the effects of projected greenhouse gas increases, is examined. The focus is on the interplay between the trend in the Northern Hemisphere December–February (DJF) mean state and the intrinsic modes of variability of the model atmosphere as given by the upper-tropospheric meridional wind. The structure of the leading modes and the trend are similar. Two commonly proposed explanations for this similarity are considered. Several results suggest that this similarity in most respects is consistent with an explanation involving patterns that result from the model dynamics being well approximated by a linear system. Specifically, the leading intrinsic modes are similar to the leading modes of a stochastic model linearized about the mean state of the GCM atmosphere, trends in GCM tropical precipitation appear to excite the leading linear pattern, and the probability density functions (PDFs) of prominent circulation patterns are quasi-Gaussian. There are, on the other hand, some subtle indications that an explanation for the similarity involving preferred states (which necessarily result from nonlinear influences) has some relevance. For example, though unimodal, PDFs of prominent patterns have departures from Gaussianity that are suggestive of a mixture of two Gaussian components. And there is some evidence of a shift in probability between the two components as the climate changes. Interestingly, contrary to the most prominent theory of the influence of nonlinearly produced preferred states on climate change, the centroids of the components also change as the climate changes. This modification of the system’s preferred states corresponds to a change in the structure of its dominant patterns. The change in pattern structure is reproduced by the linear stochastic model when its basic state is modified to correspond to the trend in the general circulation model’s mean atmospheric state. Thus, there is a two-way interaction between the trend and the modes of variability.

scholarly journals Role of the Indo-Pacific Interbasin Coupling in Predicting Asymmetric ENSO Transition and Duration

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 3321-3335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masamichi Ohba ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Enso Asymmetry ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Warm and cold phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibit a significant asymmetry in their transition/duration such that El Niño tends to shift rapidly to La Niña after the mature phase, whereas La Niña tends to persist for up to 2 yr. The possible role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian Ocean (IO) in this ENSO asymmetry is investigated using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Decoupled-IO experiments are conducted to assess asymmetric IO feedbacks to the ongoing ENSO evolution in the Pacific. Identical-twin forecast experiments show that a coupling of the IO extends the skillful prediction of the ENSO warm phase by about one year, which was about 8 months in the absence of the IO coupling, in which a significant drop of the prediction skill around the boreal spring (known as the spring prediction barrier) is found. The effect of IO coupling on the predictability of the Pacific SST is significantly weaker in the decay phase of La Niña. Warm IO SST anomalies associated with El Niño enhance surface easterlies over the equatorial western Pacific and hence facilitate the El Niño decay. However, this mechanism cannot be applied to cold IO SST anomalies during La Niña. The result of these CGCM experiments estimates that approximately one-half of the ENSO asymmetry arises from the phase-dependent nature of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling.

scholarly journals Resonance in Optimal Perturbation Evolution. Part II: Effects of a Nonzero Mean PV Gradient

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 695-710 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. de Vries ◽  
J. D. Opsteegh
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Propagation Speed ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Joint Effect ◽  
Optimal Perturbation ◽  
Orr Mechanism ◽  
Nonzero Mean ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Pv Gradient

Abstract Optimal perturbations are constructed for a two-layer β-plane extension of the Eady model. The surface and interior dynamics is interpreted using the concept of potential vorticity building blocks (PVBs), which are zonally wavelike, vertically confined sheets of quasigeostrophic potential vorticity. The results are compared with the Charney model and with the two-layer Eady model without β. The authors focus particularly on the role of the different growth mechanisms in the optimal perturbation evolution. The optimal perturbations are constructed allowing only one PVB, three PVBs, and finally a discrete equivalent of a continuum of PVBs to be present initially. On the f plane only the PVB at the surface and at the tropopause can be amplified. In the presence of β, however, PVBs influence each other’s growth and propagation at all levels. Compared to the two-layer f-plane model, the inclusion of β slightly reduces the surface growth and propagation speed of all optimal perturbations. Responsible for the reduction are the interior PVBs, which are excited by the initial PVB after initialization. Their joint effect is almost as strong as the effect from the excited tropopause PVB, which is also negative at the surface. If the optimal perturbation is composed of more than one PVB, the Orr mechanism dominates the initial amplification in the entire troposphere. At low levels, the interaction between the surface PVB and the interior tropospheric PVBs (in particular those near the critical level) takes over after about half a day, whereas the interaction between the tropopause PVB and the interior PVBs is responsible for the main amplification in the upper troposphere. In all cases in which more than one PVB is used, the growing normal mode configuration is not reached at optimization time.

scholarly journals The Annular Response to Tropical Pacific SST Forcing

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 1802-1819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuanglin Li ◽  
Martin P. Hoerling ◽  
Shiling Peng ◽  
Klaus M. Weickmann
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Storm Track ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Transient Eddy ◽  
West Pacific ◽  
Core Energy ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Sst Forcing ◽  
Sst Anomaly

Abstract The leading pattern of Northern Hemisphere winter height variability exhibits an annular structure, one related to tropical west Pacific heating. To explore whether this pattern can be excited by tropical Pacific SST variations, an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab mixed layer ocean is employed. Ensemble experiments with an idealized SST anomaly centered at different longitudes on the equator are conducted. The results reveal two different response patterns—a hemispheric pattern projecting on the annular mode and a meridionally arched pattern confined to the Pacific–North American sector, induced by the SST anomaly in the west and the east Pacific, respectively. Extratropical air–sea coupling enhances the annular component of response to the tropical west Pacific SST anomalies. A diagnosis based on linear dynamical models suggests that the two responses are primarily maintained by transient eddy forcing. In both cases, the model transient eddy forcing response has a maximum near the exit of the Pacific jet, but with a different meridional position relative to the upper-level jet. The emergence of an annular response is found to be very sensitive to whether transient eddy forcing anomalies occur within the axis of the jet core. For forcing within the jet core, energy propagates poleward and downstream, inducing an annular response. For forcing away from the jet core, energy propagates equatorward and downstream, inducing a trapped regional response. The selection of an annular versus a regionally confined tropospheric response is thus postulated to depend on how the storm tracks respond. Tropical west Pacific SST forcing is particularly effective in exciting the required storm-track response from which a hemisphere-wide teleconnection structure emerges.

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