scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change and the End of Deforestation on Land Use in the Brazilian Legal Amazon

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (16) ◽  
pp. 1-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Montenegro Lapola ◽  
Ruediger Schaldach ◽  
Joseph Alcamo ◽  
Alberte Bondeau ◽  
Siwa Msangi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
Livestock Production ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Worst Case

Abstract Climate change scenarios vary considerably over the Amazon region, with an extreme scenario projecting a dangerous (from the human perspective) increase of 3.8°C in temperature and 30% reduction in precipitation by 2050. The impacts of such climate change on Amazonian land-use dynamics, agricultural production, and deforestation rates are still to be determined. In this study, the authors make a first attempt to assess these impacts through a systemic approach, using a spatially explicit modeling framework to project crop yield and land-use/land-cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050. The results show that, without any adaptation, climate change may exert a critical impact on the yields of crops commonly cultivated in the Amazon (e.g., soybean yields are reduced by 44% in the worst-case scenario). Therefore, following baseline projections on crop and livestock production, a scenario of severe regional climate change would cause additional deforestation of 181 000 km2 (+20%) in the Amazon and 240 000 km2 (+273%) in the Cerrado compared to a scenario of moderate climate change. Putting an end to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon forest by 2020 (and of the Cerrado by 2025) would require either a reduction of 26%–40% in livestock production until 2050 or a doubling of average livestock density from 0.74 to 1.46 head per hectare. These results suggest that (i) climate change can affect land use in ways not previously explored, such as the reduction of yields entailing further deforestation, and (ii) there is a need for an integrated/multidisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon.

Variations of disinfection by-product levels in small drinking water utilities according to climate change scenarios: a first assessment

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Delpla ◽  
A. Scheili ◽  
S. Guilherme ◽  
G. Cool ◽  
M. J. Rodriguez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Water Treatment ◽  
Drinking Water Treatment ◽  
Water Utilities ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Small Water ◽  
Water Treatment Process

In Québec, Canada, shifts in climate patterns (i.e., rainfall increase) could have consequences on source water quality due to the intensification of surface/groundwater runoff contamination events, leading to a decline in drinking water treatment efficiency and ultimately disinfection by-products (DBPs) formation following treatment. To assess the impacts of climate change (CC) scenarios on DBP formation, a suite of models linking climate to DBPs was used. This study applies three emissions scenarios (B1, A1B and A2) for three 30-year horizons (2020, 2050 and 2080) in order to produce inputs to test several DBP models (total trihalomethanes (TTHMs), haloacetic acids and haloacetonitriles). An annual increase is estimated for all DBPs for each CC scenario and horizon. The highest seasonal increases were estimated for winter for all DBP groups or species. In the worst-case scenario (A2-2080), TTHMs could be affected more particularly during winter (+34.0%), followed by spring (+16.1%) and fall (+4.4%), whereas summer concentrations would remain stable (−0.3 to +0.4%). Potentially, small water utilities applying only a disinfection step could be more affected by rising TTHMs concentrations associated with CC than those having implemented a complete water treatment process (coagulation–flocculation, filtration and disinfection) with +13.6% and +8.2% increases respectively (A2-2080).

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Forested Watershed That Drains to Lake Erken in Sweden: An Analysis Using SWAT+ and CMIP6 Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1803
Author(s):  
Inmaculada C. Jiménez-Navarro ◽  
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Adrián López-Ballesteros ◽  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez ◽  
Javier Senent-Aparicio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case

Precipitation and temperature around the world are expected to be altered by climate change. This will cause regional alterations to the hydrological cycle. For proper water management, anticipating these changes is necessary. In this study, the basin of Lake Erken (Sweden) was simulated with the recently released software SWAT+ to study such alterations in a short (2026–2050), medium (2051–2075) and long (2076–2100) period, under two different climate change scenarios (SSP2-45 and SSP5-85). Seven global climate models from the latest projections of future climates that are available (CIMP 6) were compared and ensembled. A bias-correction of the models’ data was performed with five different methods to select the most appropriate one. Results showed that the temperature is expected to increase in the future from 2 to 4 °C, and precipitation from 6% to 20%, depending on the scenario. As a result, water discharge would also increase by about 18% in the best-case scenario and by 50% in the worst-case scenario, and the surface runoff would increase between 5% and 30%. The floods and torrential precipitations would also increase in the basin. This trend could lead to soil impoverishment and reduced water availability in the basin, which could damage the watershed’s forests. In addition, rising temperatures would result in a 65% reduction in the snow water equivalent at best and 92% at worst.

scholarly journals Global expansion and redistribution of Aedes-borne virus transmission risk with climate change

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sadie J. Ryan ◽  
Colin J. Carlson ◽  
Erin A. Mordecai ◽  
Leah R. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Viral Transmission ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractForecasting the impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—is a key component of public health preparedness. We apply an empirically parameterized model of viral transmission by the vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus, as a function of temperature, to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare them with projected risk in 2050 and 2080 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that if mosquito range shifts track optimal temperature ranges for transmission (21.3 – 34.0°C for Ae. aegypti; 19.9 – 29.4°C for Ae. albopictus), we can expect poleward shifts in Aedes-borne virus distributions. However, the differing thermal niches of the two vectors produce different patterns of shifts under climate change. More severe climate change scenarios produce larger population exposures to transmission by Ae. aegypti, but not by Ae. albopictus in the most extreme cases. Climate-driven risk of transmission from both mosquitoes will increase substantially, even in the short term, for most of Europe. In contrast, significant reductions in climate suitability are expected for Ae. albopictus, most noticeably in southeast Asia and west Africa. Within the next century, nearly a billion people are threatened with new exposure to virus transmission by both Aedes spp. in the worst-case scenario. As major net losses in year-round transmission risk are predicted for Ae. albopictus, we project a global shift towards more seasonal risk across regions. Many other complicating factors (like mosquito range limits and viral evolution) exist, but overall our results indicate that while climate change will lead to increased net and new exposures to Aedes-borne viruses, the most extreme increases in Ae. albopictus transmission are predicted to occur at intermediate climate change scenarios.Author SummaryThe established scientific consensus indicates that climate change will severely exacerbate the risk and burden of Aedes-transmitted viruses, including dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and other significant threats to global health security. Here, we show more subtle impacts of climate change on transmission, caused primarily by differences between the more heat-tolerant Aedes aegypti and the more heat-limited Ae. albopictus. Within the next century, nearly a billion people could face their first exposure to viral transmission from either mosquito in the worst-case scenario, mainly in Europe and high-elevation tropical and subtropical regions. However, while year-round transmission potential from Ae. aegypti is likely to expand (particularly in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa), Ae. albopictus transmission potential is likely to decline substantially in the tropics, marking a global shift towards seasonal risk as the tropics eventually become too hot for transmission by Ae. albopictus. Complete mitigation of climate change to a pre-industrial baseline may protect almost a billion people from arbovirus range expansions; however, middle-of-the-road mitigation could produce the greatest expansion in the potential for viral transmission by Ae. albopictus. In any scenario, mitigating climate change would shift the projected burden of both dengue and chikungunya (and potentially other Aedes transmitted viruses) from higher-income regions back onto the tropics, where transmission might otherwise begin to decline due to rising temperatures.

scholarly journals Winter Wheat Adaptation to Climate Change in Turkey

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 689
Author(s):  
Yuksel Kaya
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Grain Yield ◽  
Spring Wheat ◽  
Control Treatment ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Combined Effects ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Wheat Genotypes ◽  
Plant Characteristics

Climate change scenarios reveal that Turkey’s wheat production area is under the combined effects of heat and drought stresses. The adverse effects of climate change have just begun to be experienced in Turkey’s spring and the winter wheat zones. However, climate change is likely to affect the winter wheat zone more severely. Fortunately, there is a fast, repeatable, reliable and relatively affordable way to predict climate change effects on winter wheat (e.g., testing winter wheat in the spring wheat zone). For this purpose, 36 wheat genotypes in total, consisting of 14 spring and 22 winter types, were tested under the field conditions of the Southeastern Anatolia Region, a representative of the spring wheat zone of Turkey, during the two cropping seasons (2017–2018 and 2019–2020). Simultaneous heat (>30 °C) and drought (<40 mm) stresses occurring in May and June during both growing seasons caused drastic losses in winter wheat grain yield and its components. Declines in plant characteristics of winter wheat genotypes, compared to those of spring wheat genotypes using as a control treatment, were determined as follows: 46.3% in grain yield, 23.7% in harvest index, 30.5% in grains per spike and 19.4% in thousand kernel weight, whereas an increase of 282.2% in spike sterility occurred. On the other hand, no substantial changes were observed in plant height (10 cm longer than that of spring wheat) and on days to heading (25 days more than that of spring wheat) of winter wheat genotypes. In general, taller winter wheat genotypes tended to lodge. Meanwhile, it became impossible to avoid the combined effects of heat and drought stresses during anthesis and grain filling periods because the time to heading of winter wheat genotypes could not be shortened significantly. In conclusion, our research findings showed that many winter wheat genotypes would not successfully adapt to climate change. It was determined that specific plant characteristics such as vernalization requirement, photoperiod sensitivity, long phenological duration (lack of earliness per se) and vulnerability to diseases prevailing in the spring wheat zone, made winter wheat difficult to adapt to climate change. The most important strategic step that can be taken to overcome these challenges is that Turkey’s wheat breeding program objectives should be harmonized with the climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Investigating Future Urbanization’s Impact on Local Climate under Different Climate Change Scenarios in MEGA-urban Regions: A Case Study of the Pearl River Delta, China

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 771
Author(s):  
Pak Shing Yeung ◽  
Jimmy Chi-Hung Fung ◽  
Chao Ren ◽  
Yong Xu ◽  
Kangning Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Pearl River Delta ◽  
Pearl River ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
The Pearl River Delta ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Pearl River

Urbanization is one of the most significant contributing factors to anthropogenic climate change. However, a lack of projected city land use data has posed significant challenges to factoring urbanization into climate change modeling. Thus, the results from current models may contain considerable errors in estimating future climate scenarios. The Pearl River Delta region was selected as a case study to provide insight into how large-scale urbanization and different climate change scenarios impact the local climate. This study adopts projected land use data from freely available satellite imagery and applies dynamic simulation land use results to the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The simulation periods cover the summer periods in 2010 and 2029–2031, the latter of which is averaged to represent the year 2030. The WRF simulation used the observed local climate conditions in 2010 to represent the current scenario and the projected local climate changes for 2030 as the future scenario. Under all three future climate change scenarios, the warming trend is prominent (around 1–2 °C increase), with a widespread reduction in wind speed in inland areas (1–2 ms−1). The vulnerability of human health to thermal stress was evaluated by adopting the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT). The results from the future scenarios suggest a high public health risk due to rising temperatures in the future. This study provides a methodology for a more comprehensive understanding of future urbanization and its impact on regional climate by using freely available satellite images and WRF simulation tools. The simulated temperature and WBGT results can serve local governments and stakeholders in city planning and the creation of action plans that will reduce the potential vulnerability of human health to excessive heat.

scholarly journals Chironomidae from Eastern Amazon: Understanding the differences of land-use on functional feeding groups

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathia C. Sonoda ◽  
Josinete S. Monteles ◽  
Anderson Ferreira ◽  
Pedro Gerhard
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Development ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
Human Action ◽  
Taxonomic Resolution ◽  
Functional Feeding Groups ◽  
Amazon Forest ◽  
Group Data ◽  
Forest Streams

Deforestation for agricultural purposes is the most dangerous human action against the conservation of the Brazilian Amazon Forest; its rates reached almost 20% of the original forested area. Many studies have been conducted on Chironomidae systematics and ecology over the Amazon biome, but most concerned the Central Amazon, while little is known about Chironomidae diversity and the effects of land development and agriculture intensification on the aquatic biota from Eastern Brazilian Amazon. The present study analyzed the effects of different land-use and land-cover on Chironomidae assemblages. Land-Use and Land-Cover (LULC) at the riparian zone were assessed from satellite imagery and three categories were defined: Forest, Secondary (Capoeira) and Agriculture. Ten catchments were selected: two for Forest, five for Agriculture and three for Secondary. For each catchment we characterized habitat and sampled insects. We hypothesized that i) the assemblage taxonomic richness will change across different land uses on riparian zones and ii) feeding functionality is a better information than taxonomic resolution to show the importance of LULC upon stream. A total of 20,884 individuals were sampled from the streams, abundance was higher in Agriculture streams. Corynoneura (18.4%), Pentaneura (14.6%) and Rheotanytarus (14.0%) were the most abundant genera in Agriculture streams; Corynoneura (17.8%), Caladomyia (13.6%), Paratanytarsus (13.1%) and Beardius (10.9%) dominated Forest streams; Goeldichironomus (25.9%), Rheotanytarus (17.6%) and Polypedilum (13.2%) dominated Capoeira streams. Regarding FFG, gatherers were the most numeric abundant in Forest (50.3%), followed by filterers (38.7%), predators (6.6%) and shredders (4.2%). In Capoeira, filterers were the main FFG (61.1%), gatherers (27.9%), predators (7.7%) and shredders (3.3%). In Agriculture streams, predators, filterers and gatherers had close numeric participation, 34.9%, 32.4% and 32.2%, respectively. Shredders performed a smaller fraction (0.4%). In Forest and Agriculture, scrapers participation was under 0.2%, while it was absent at Capoeira. Permutation tests showed significant differences among assemblages, based on numerical abundance of genera and on functional feeding group data. Even though, shredders showed a discrete participation in all three LULC, it was statistically significant higher at Forest streams when compared to Agriculture ones. Our study was able to demonstrate taxonomic differences of all LULC analyzed and it also showed the importance in considering the feeding behavior to understand the effects of land-use and land-covers changes.

scholarly journals Quantification of climate change and land cover/use transition impacts on runoff variations in the upper Hailar Basin, NE China

2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 976-993
Author(s):  
Yuhui Yan ◽  
Baolin Xue ◽  
Yinglan A ◽  
Wenchao Sun ◽  
Hanwen Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Ne China ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Hailar Basin ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Quantification of runoff change is vital for water resources management, especially in arid or semiarid areas. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) distributed hydrological model to simulate runoff in the upper reaches of the Hailar Basin (NE China) and to analyze quantitatively the impacts of climate change and land-use change on runoff by setting different scenarios. Two periods, i.e., the reference period (before 1988) and the interference period (after 1988), were identified based on long-term runoff datasets. In comparison with the reference period, the contribution rates of both climate change and land-use change to runoff change in the Hailar Basin during the interference period were 83.58% and 16.42%, respectively. The simulation analysis of climate change scenarios with differential precipitation and temperature changes suggested that runoff changes are correlated positively with precipitation change and that the impact of precipitation change on runoff is stronger than that of temperature. Under different economic development scenarios adopted, land use was predicted to have a considerable impact on runoff. The expansion of forests within the basin might induce decreased runoff owing to enhanced evapotranspiration.

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