scholarly journals Geographic Aspects of Temperature and Concentration Feedbacks in the Carbon Budget

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 775-784 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. J. Boer ◽  
V. Arora
Keyword(s):  
Negative Feedback ◽  
Carbon Concentration ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Temperature Feedback ◽  
Concentration Changes

Abstract The geographical distribution of feedback processes in the carbon budget is investigated in a manner that parallels that for climate feedback/sensitivity in the energy budget. Simulations for a range of emission scenarios, made with the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) earth system model (CanESM1), are the basis of the analysis. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere and provide the forcing for changes to the atmospheric carbon budget. Transports redistribute the emitted CO2 globally where local feedback processes act to enhance (positive feedback) or suppress (negative feedback) local CO2 amounts in response to changes in CO2 concentration and temperature. An increased uptake of CO2 by the land and ocean acts to counteract increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations so that “carbon–concentration” feedbacks are broadly negative over the twenty-first century. Largest values are found over land and particularly in tropical regions where CO2 acts to fertilize plant growth. Extratropical land also takes up CO2 but here the effect is limited by cooler temperatures. Oceans play a lesser negative feedback role with comparatively weak uptake associated with an increase in the atmosphere–ocean CO2 gradient rather than with oceanic biological activity. The effect of CO2-induced temperature increase is, by contrast, to increase atmospheric CO2 on average and so represents an overall positive “carbon–temperature” feedback. Although the average is positive, local regions of both positive and negative carbon–temperature feedback are seen over land as a consequence of the competition between changes in biological productivity and respiration. Positive carbon–temperature feedback is found over most tropical land while mid–high-latitude land exhibits negative feedback. There are also regions of positive and negative oceanic carbon–temperature feedback in the eastern tropical Pacific. The geographical patterns of carbon–concentration and carbon–temperature feedbacks are comparatively robust across the range of emission scenarios used, although their magnitudes are somewhat less robust and scale nonlinearly as a consequence of the large CO2 concentration changes engendered by the scenarios. The feedback patterns deduced nevertheless serve to illustrate the localized carbon feedback processes in the climate system.

scholarly journals Global carbon budget 2014

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 521-610 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Le Quéré ◽  
R. Moriarty ◽  
R. M. Andrew ◽  
G. P. Peters ◽  
P. Ciais ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Cement Production ◽  
Global Carbon Budget ◽  
Global Carbon

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe datasets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent Dynamic Global Vegetation Models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the variability and mean land and ocean fluxes to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.3% above 2012, contining the growth trend in these emissions. ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2013 reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr−1), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of World Gross Domestic Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870–2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living dataset (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014). Italic font highlights significant methodological changes and results compared to the Le Quéré et al. (2014) manuscript that accompanies the previous version of this living data.

scholarly journals Quantifying Carbon Cycle Feedbacks

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (19) ◽  
pp. 5232-5250 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Gregory ◽  
C. D. Jones ◽  
P. Cadule ◽  
P. Friedlingstein
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Carbon Cycle Model ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentration ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract Perturbations to the carbon cycle could constitute large feedbacks on future changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate. This paper demonstrates how carbon cycle feedback can be expressed in formally similar ways to climate feedback, and thus compares their magnitudes. The carbon cycle gives rise to two climate feedback terms: the concentration–carbon feedback, resulting from the uptake of carbon by land and ocean as a biogeochemical response to the atmospheric CO2 concentration, and the climate–carbon feedback, resulting from the effect of climate change on carbon fluxes. In the earth system models of the Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP), climate–carbon feedback on warming is positive and of a similar size to the cloud feedback. The concentration–carbon feedback is negative; it has generally received less attention in the literature, but in magnitude it is 4 times larger than the climate–carbon feedback and more uncertain. The concentration–carbon feedback is the dominant uncertainty in the allowable CO2 emissions that are consistent with a given CO2 concentration scenario. In modeling the climate response to a scenario of CO2 emissions, the net carbon cycle feedback is of comparable size and uncertainty to the noncarbon–climate response. To quantify simulated carbon cycle feedbacks satisfactorily, a radiatively coupled experiment is needed, in addition to the fully coupled and biogeochemically coupled experiments, which are referred to as coupled and uncoupled in C4MIP. The concentration–carbon and climate–carbon feedbacks do not combine linearly, and the concentration–carbon feedback is dependent on scenario and time.

scholarly journals Carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedbacks in CMIP6 models and their comparison to CMIP5 models

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (16) ◽  
pp. 4173-4222 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivek K. Arora ◽  
Anna Katavouta ◽  
Richard G. Williams ◽  
Chris D. Jones ◽  
Victor Brovkin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Concentration ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Climate Feedbacks ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Results from the fully and biogeochemically coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1 % yr−1 (1pctCO2) from its preindustrial value are analyzed to quantify the magnitude of carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters which measure the response of ocean and terrestrial carbon pools to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and the resulting change in global climate, respectively. The results are based on 11 comprehensive Earth system models from the most recent (sixth) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and compared with eight models from the fifth CMIP (CMIP5). The strength of the carbon–concentration feedback is of comparable magnitudes over land (mean ± standard deviation = 0.97 ± 0.40 PgC ppm−1) and ocean (0.79 ± 0.07 PgC ppm−1), while the carbon–climate feedback over land (−45.1 ± 50.6 PgC ∘C−1) is about 3 times larger than over ocean (−17.2 ± 5.0 PgC ∘C−1). The strength of both feedbacks is an order of magnitude more uncertain over land than over ocean as has been seen in existing studies. These values and their spread from 11 CMIP6 models have not changed significantly compared to CMIP5 models. The absolute values of feedback parameters are lower for land with models that include a representation of nitrogen cycle. The transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the 11 CMIP6 models considered here is 1.77 ± 0.37 ∘C EgC−1 and is similar to that found in CMIP5 models (1.63 ± 0.48 ∘C EgC−1) but with somewhat reduced model spread. The expressions for feedback parameters based on the fully and biogeochemically coupled configurations of the 1pctCO2 simulation are simplified when the small temperature change in the biogeochemically coupled simulation is ignored. Decomposition of the terms of these simplified expressions for the feedback parameters is used to gain insight into the reasons for differing responses among ocean and land carbon cycle models.

scholarly journals The global carbon budget 1959–2011

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Le Quéré ◽  
R. J. Andres ◽  
T. Boden ◽  
T. Conway ◽  
R. A. Houghton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Global Carbon Cycle ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Global Carbon Budget ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentration ◽  
Global Carbon

Abstract. Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002–2011), EFF was 8.3 ± 0.4 PgC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 PgC yr−1. For year 2011 alone, EFF was 9.5 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, approximately constant throughout the decade; GATM was 3.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.7 ± 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr−1. GATM was low in 2011 compared to the 2002–2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 ± 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that EFF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future. All data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_V2013). Global carbon budget 2013

The Effect of Terrestrial Photosynthesis Down Regulation on the Twentieth-Century Carbon Budget Simulated with the CCCma Earth System Model

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (22) ◽  
pp. 6066-6088 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. K. Arora ◽  
G. J. Boer ◽  
J. R. Christian ◽  
C. L. Curry ◽  
K. L. Denman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
System Model ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Down Regulation ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract The simulation of atmospheric–land–ocean CO2 exchange for the 1850–2000 period offers the possibility of testing and calibrating the carbon budget in earth system models by comparing the simulated changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and in land and ocean uptake with observation-based information. In particular, some of the uncertainties associated with the treatment of land use change (LUC) and the role of down regulation in affecting the strength of CO2 fertilization for terrestrial photosynthesis are assessed using the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis Earth System Model (CanESM1). LUC emissions may be specified as an external source of CO2 or calculated interactively based on estimated changes in crop area. The evidence for photosynthetic down regulation is reviewed and an empirically based representation is implemented and tested in the model. Four fully coupled simulations are performed: with and without terrestrial photosynthesis down regulation and with interactively determined or specified LUC emissions. Simulations without terrestrial photosynthesis down regulation yield 15–20 ppm lower atmospheric CO2 by the end of the twentieth century, compared to observations, regardless of the LUC approach used because of higher carbon uptake by land. Implementation of down regulation brings simulated values of atmospheric CO2 and land and ocean carbon uptake closer to observation-based values. The use of specified LUC emissions yields a large source in the tropics during the 1981–2000 period, which is inconsistent with studies suggesting the tropics to be near-neutral or small carbon sinks. The annual cycle of simulated global averaged CO2, dominated by the Northern Hemisphere terrestrial photosynthesis and respiration cycles, is reasonably well reproduced, as is the latitudinal distribution of CO2 and the dependence of interhemispheric CO2 gradient on fossil fuel emissions. The empirical approach used here offers a reasonable method of implementing down regulation in coupled carbon–climate models in the absence of a more explicit biogeochemical representation.

scholarly journals Feedbacks in Emission-Driven and Concentration-Driven Global Carbon Budgets

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 3326-3341 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. J. Boer ◽  
V. K. Arora
Keyword(s):  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Biogeochemical Processes ◽  
Carbon Budgets ◽  
Feedback Analysis ◽  
Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Atmospheric Concentrations

Abstract Emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere affect the carbon budgets of the land and ocean as biogeochemical processes react to increased CO2 concentrations. Biogeochemical processes also react to changes in temperature and other climate parameters. This behavior is characterized in terms of carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters. The results of this study include 1) the extension of the direct carbon feedback formalism of Boer and Arora to include results from radiatively coupled simulations, as well as those from the biogeochemically coupled and fully coupled simulations used in earlier analyses; 2) a brief analysis of the relationship between this formalism and the integrated feedback formalism of Friedlingstein et al.; 3) the feedback analysis of simulations based on each of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5; 4) a comparison of the effects of specifying atmospheric CO2 concentrations or CO2 emissions; and 5) the quantification of the relative importance of the two feedback mechanisms in terms of their cumulative contribution to the change in atmospheric CO2. Feedback results are broadly in agreement with earlier studies in that carbon–concentration feedback is negative for the atmosphere and carbon–climate feedback is positive. However, the magnitude and evolution of feedback behavior depends on the formalism employed, the scenario considered, and the specification of CO2 from emissions or as atmospheric concentrations. Both feedback parameters can differ by factors of two or more, depending on the scenario and on the specification of CO2 emissions or concentrations. While feedback results are qualitatively useful and illustrative of carbon budget behavior, they apply quantitatively to particular scenarios and cases.

scholarly journals Carbon–Concentration and Carbon–Climate Feedbacks in CMIP5 Earth System Models

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (15) ◽  
pp. 5289-5314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vivek K. Arora ◽  
George J. Boer ◽  
Pierre Friedlingstein ◽  
Michael Eby ◽  
Chris D. Jones ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Concentration ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Co2 Flux ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Earth System ◽  
System Models ◽  
Common Framework ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract The magnitude and evolution of parameters that characterize feedbacks in the coupled carbon–climate system are compared across nine Earth system models (ESMs). The analysis is based on results from biogeochemically, radiatively, and fully coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1% yr−1. These simulations are part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The CO2 fluxes between the atmosphere and underlying land and ocean respond to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and to changes in temperature and other climate variables. The carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters characterize the response of the CO2 flux between the atmosphere and the underlying surface to these changes. Feedback parameters are calculated using two different approaches. The two approaches are equivalent and either may be used to calculate the contribution of the feedback terms to diagnosed cumulative emissions. The contribution of carbon–concentration feedback to diagnosed cumulative emissions that are consistent with the 1% increasing CO2 concentration scenario is about 4.5 times larger than the carbon–climate feedback. Differences in the modeled responses of the carbon budget to changes in CO2 and temperature are seen to be 3–4 times larger for the land components compared to the ocean components of participating models. The feedback parameters depend on the state of the system as well the forcing scenario but nevertheless provide insight into the behavior of the coupled carbon–climate system and a useful common framework for comparing models.

scholarly journals Global carbon budget 2013

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 235-263 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Le Quéré ◽  
G. P. Peters ◽  
R. J. Andres ◽  
R. M. Andrew ◽  
T. A. Boden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Land Cover Change ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Global Carbon Budget ◽  
Global Carbon

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and assuming an ELUC of 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1% (1.1–3.1%) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70% from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30% from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_V2.3).

scholarly journals Global Carbon Budget 2017

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corinne Le Quéré ◽  
Robbie M. Andrew ◽  
Pierre Friedlingstein ◽  
Stephen Sitch ◽  
Julia Pongratz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Terrestrial Biosphere ◽  
Global Carbon Budget ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentration ◽  
Global Carbon

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of our imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the higher fossil emissions and smaller SLAND for that year consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 % to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of Gross Domestic Product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. For 2017, initial data indicate an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration of around 5.3 GtC (2.5 ppm), attributed to a combination of increasing emissions and receding El Niño conditions. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016; 2015b; 2015a; 2014; 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017.

Implications of the Globally Increasing Atmospheric CO2 Concentration and Temperature for the Australian Terrestrial Carbon Budget: Integration Using a Simple-Model

1992 ◽  
Vol 40 (5) ◽  
pp. 527 ◽  
Author(s):  
RM Gifford
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Budget ◽  
Co2 Concentration ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
Terrestrial Carbon ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentration ◽  
Fossil Fuel Burning ◽  
Aggregated Model ◽  
Greenhouse Effect Gas ◽  
Business As Usual

A simple continentally aggregated model of the Australian terrestrial carbon budget (CQUESTA) integrates information on CO2 and temperature effects and is applied to evaluating whether vegetation is absorbing anthropogenic CO2. Information from the literature is used to parameterise CQUESTA. A standard set of parameters is adopted for exploratory purposes. Historical information is used to describe the average CO2 concentration and temperature over the southern hemisphere from 1750 AD to the present. From the present to 2050 AD the 'business-as-usual' scenario described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is applied. The standard parameterisation of the model suggests that the changing CO2 concentration and temperature regime since 1750 AD has been causing continuous net sequestration of carbon into Australian live vegetation and soils. The present modelled rate of net sequestration is of a similar magnitude to CO2 emissions from continental fossil fuel burning and land clearing combined. The rate of sequestration is predicted to continue to increase until 2050 AD and beyond if atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature continue to increase. However, there remains considerable experimental uncertainty about the correct parameterisation of the model. The findings have implications for policies on greenhouse effect gas emissions.

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