Decadal Fluctuations in Planetary Wave Forcing Modulate Global Warming in Late Boreal Winter

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (16) ◽  
pp. 4418-4426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judah Cohen ◽  
Mathew Barlow ◽  
Kazuyuki Saito
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Wave Forcing ◽  
Scale Temperature ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
Seasonal Time Scale ◽  
Global Surface

Abstract The warming trend in global surface temperatures over the last 40 yr is clear and consistent with anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. Over the last 2 decades, this trend appears to have accelerated. In contrast to this general behavior, however, here it is shown that trends during the boreal cold months in the recent period have developed a marked asymmetry between early winter and late winter for the Northern Hemisphere, with vigorous warming in October–December followed by a reversal to a neutral/cold trend in January–March. This observed asymmetry in the cold half of the boreal year is linked to a two-way stratosphere–troposphere interaction, which is strongest in the Northern Hemisphere during late winter and is related to variability in Eurasian land surface conditions during autumn. This link has been demonstrated for year-to-year variability and used to improve seasonal time-scale winter forecasts; here, this coupling is shown to strongly modulate the warming trend, with implications for decadal-scale temperature projections.

Simulated and Observed Preindustrial to Modern Vegetation and Climate Changes*

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 3650-3671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Notaro ◽  
Zhengyu Liu ◽  
Robert Gallimore ◽  
Stephen J. Vavrus ◽  
John E. Kutzbach ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Boreal Forests ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Physiological Effect ◽  
Co2 Fertilization ◽  
Vegetation Growth ◽  
Fully Coupled ◽  
Global Surface ◽  
Vegetation And Climate

Abstract Rising levels of carbon dioxide since the preindustrial era have likely contributed to an observed warming of the global surface, and observations show global greening and an expansion of boreal forests. This study reproduces observed climate and vegetation trends associated with rising CO2 using a fully coupled atmosphere–ocean–land surface GCM with dynamic vegetation and decomposes the effects into physiological and radiative components. The simulated warming trend, strongest at high latitudes, was dominated by the radiative effect, although the physiological effect of CO2 on vegetation (CO2 fertilization) contributed to significant wintertime warming over northern Europe and central and eastern Asia. The net global greening of the model was primarily due to the physiological effect of increasing CO2, while the radiative and physiological effects combined to produce a poleward expansion of the boreal forests. Observed and simulated trends in tree ring width are consistent with the enhancement of vegetation growth by the physiological effect of rising CO2.

scholarly journals The influence of the stratosphere on the tropospheric zonal wind response to CO<sub>2</sub> doubling

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 23895-23925
Author(s):  
Y. B. L. Hinssen ◽  
C. J. Bell ◽  
P. C. Siegmund
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Wave Forcing ◽  
Eddy Heat Flux ◽  
Wind Response ◽  
Hemisphere Winter

Abstract. The influence of a CO2 doubling on the stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) is examined in two climate models. Subsequently, the influence of changes in the stratosphere on the tropospheric zonal wind response is investigated, by inverting the stratospheric PV. Radiative effects dominate the stratospheric response to CO2 doubling in the Southern Hemisphere. These lead to a stratospheric PV increase at the edge of the polar vortex, resulting in an increased westerly influence of the stratosphere on the tropospheric midlatitude winds in late winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, dynamical effects are also important. Both models show a reduced polar PV and an enhanced midlatitude PV in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere. These PV changes are related to an enhanced wave forcing of the winter stratosphere, as measured by an increase in the 100 hPa eddy heat flux, and result in a reduced westerly influence of the stratosphere on the high latitude tropospheric winds. In one model, the high latitude PV decreases are, however, restricted to higher altitudes, and the tropospheric response due to the stratospheric changes is dominated by an increased westerly influence in the midlatitudes, related to the increase in midlatitude PV in the lower stratosphere. The tropospheric response in zonal wind due to the stratospheric PV changes is of the order of 0.5 to 1 m s−1. The total tropospheric response has a somewhat different spatial structure, but is of similar magnitude. This indicates that the stratospheric influence is of importance in modifying the tropospheric zonal wind response to CO2 doubling.

scholarly journals The influence of the stratosphere on the tropospheric zonal wind response to CO<sub>2</sub> doubling

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 4915-4927 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. B. L. Hinssen ◽  
C. J. Bell ◽  
P. C. Siegmund
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Wave Forcing ◽  
Eddy Heat Flux ◽  
Wind Response ◽  
Hemisphere Winter

Abstract. The influence of a CO2 doubling on the stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) is examined in two climate models. Subsequently, the influence of changes in the stratosphere on the tropospheric zonal wind response is investigated, by inverting the stratospheric PV. Radiative effects seem to dominate the stratospheric response to CO2 doubling in the Southern Hemisphere. These lead to a stratospheric PV increase at the edge of the polar vortex, resulting in an increased westerly influence of the stratosphere on the troposphere, increasing the midlatitude tropospheric westerlies in late winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, dynamical effects are also important. Both models show a reduced polar PV and an enhanced midlatitude PV in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere. These PV changes are likely related to an enhanced wave forcing of the winter stratosphere, as measured by an increase in the 100 hPa eddy heat flux, and result in a reduced westerly influence of the stratosphere on the high latitude tropospheric winds. In one model, the high latitude PV decreases are, however, restricted to higher altitudes, and the tropospheric response due to the stratospheric changes is dominated by an increased westerly influence in the midlatitudes, related to the increase in midlatitude PV in the lower stratosphere. The tropospheric response in zonal wind due to the stratospheric PV changes is of the order of 0.5 to 1 m s−1. The total tropospheric response has a somewhat different spatial structure, but is of similar magnitude. This indicates that the stratospheric influence is of importance in modifying the tropospheric zonal wind response to CO2 doubling.

scholarly journals Cities Exacerbate Climate Warming

Urban Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Lahouari Bounoua ◽  
Kurtis Thome ◽  
Joseph Nigro
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Temperature Changes ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
The Us

Urbanization is a complex land transformation not explicitly resolved within large-scale climate models. Long-term timeseries of high-resolution satellite data are essential to characterize urbanization within land surface models and to assess its contribution to surface temperature changes. The potential for additional surface warming from urbanization-induced land use change is investigated and decoupled from that due to change in climate over the continental US using a decadal timescale. We show that, aggregated over the US, the summer mean urban-induced surface temperature increased by 0.15 °C, with a warming of 0.24 °C in cities built in vegetated areas and a cooling of 0.25 °C in cities built in non-vegetated arid areas. This temperature change is comparable in magnitude to the 0.13 °C/decade global warming trend observed over the last 50 years caused by increased CO2. We also show that the effect of urban-induced change on surface temperature is felt above and beyond that of the CO2 effect. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider urbanization feedback to put a limit on the worldwide mean temperature increase.

A millennium-long perspective on high-elevation pine recruitment in the Spanish central Pyrenees

2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (9) ◽  
pp. 1108-1113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Sangüesa-Barreda ◽  
J. Julio Camarero ◽  
Jan Esper ◽  
J. Diego Galván ◽  
Ulf Büntgen
Keyword(s):  
Ring Width ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Upward Migration ◽  
Scale Temperature ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
History Of ◽  
Climatic Drivers ◽  
Individual Trees ◽  
Central Pyrenees

Long-term fluctuations in forest recruitment, at time scales well beyond the life-span of individual trees, can be related to climate changes. The underlying climatic drivers are, however, often understudied. Here, we present the recruitment history of a high-elevation mountain pine (Pinus uncinata Ram.) forest in the Spanish central Pyrenees throughout the last millennium. A total of 1108 ring-width series translated into a continuous chronology from 924 to 2014 CE, which allowed estimated germination dates of 470 trees to be compared against decadal-scale temperature variability. High recruitment intensity mainly coincided with relatively warm periods in the early 14th, 15th, 19th, and 20th centuries, whereas cold phases during the mid-17th, early 18th, and mid-19th centuries overlapped with generally low recruitment rates. In revealing the importance of prolonged warm conditions for high-elevation pine recruitment in the Pyrenees, this study suggests increased densification and even possible upward migration of tree-line ecotones under predicted global warming.

Annual to decadal-scale variations in northwest Atlantic sector temperatures inferred from Labrador tree rings

1996 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosanne D. D'arrigo ◽  
Edward R. Cook ◽  
Gordon C. Jacoby
Keyword(s):  
Warm Season ◽  
Temperature Sensitive ◽  
Northwest Atlantic ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
Grand Banks ◽  
Maximum Latewood Density ◽  
Latewood Density ◽  
Scale Temperature ◽  
Decadal Scale ◽  
North Atlantic Climate

Temperature-sensitive maximum latewood density chronologies from sites near tree line in Labrador are used to infer past changes in warm-season surface air and sea surface temperatures for the northwest Atlantic. Temperatures are reconstructed for the Grand Banks region based on density records from southern Labrador, while a density series from near Okak Fiord, northern Labrador, is used to infer past temperature variations for north-coastal Labrador and the adjacent Labrador Sea. The Labrador chronologies show good agreement with annual and decadal-scale temperature fluctuations over the recent period of instrumental record, and extend this temperature information into the past by several centuries. The lowest density value at the Okak site occurs in 1816, known as the "year without a summer" in eastern North America. Spectral analyses reveal statistically significant variations with periods of around 8.7, 18–22, and 45–66 years. These fluctuations are in general agreement with those identified in several instrumental and modeling analyses of North Atlantic climate.

Relative contribution of Trend and Interannually-varying SST Anomalies to the 2018 Heat Waves in the Extratropical Northern Hemisphere

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-58
Author(s):  
Chi-Cherng Hong ◽  
Wang-Ling Tseng ◽  
Huang-Hsiung Hsu ◽  
Ming-Ying Lee ◽  
Chi-Chun Chang
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Northeast Asia ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Singular Value Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Symmetric Perturbation ◽  
Prolonged Heat ◽  
Value Decomposition

AbstractThe northern extratropics—including regions in northern Europe, northeast Asia, and North America—experienced extremely prolonged heat waves during May–August 2018. Record-breaking surface temperatures, which caused numerous deaths, were observed in several cities. The 2018 heat waves exhibited a circumglobal characteristic owing to a circumpolar perturbation (CCP) in the middle–upper troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The CCP had two parts: a wave-like perturbation and a hemispheric perturbation that was almost zonally symmetric. Singular value decomposition analysis revealed that the zonally symmetric perturbation was coupled to the SST warming trend, whereas the wave-like perturbation was primarily coupled to the interannually-varying SST anomaly (SSTA), particularly in the tropical North Pacific, which reached an extreme in 2018. Numerical experiments confirmed that the zonally symmetric component was primarily resulted from the SSTA associated with the warming trend, whereas the interannually-varying SSTAs in the NH contributed mostly to the wave-like perturbation. The warming trend component of SSTA, especially that in the tropics, compounded by the unusually large SSTAs in 2018, was hypothesized to have contributed to inducing the circumpolar circulation anomaly that caused the record-breaking heat waves in the extratropical NH in 2018.

scholarly journals Evaluation of air–soil temperature relationships simulated by land surface models during winter across the permafrost region

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1721-1737 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenli Wang ◽  
Annette Rinke ◽  
John C. Moore ◽  
Duoying Ji ◽  
Xuefeng Cui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Soil Depth ◽  
Permafrost Region ◽  
Simple Relationship ◽  
Land Surface Models ◽  
Cross Model ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Models

Abstract. A realistic simulation of snow cover and its thermal properties are important for accurate modelling of permafrost. We analyse simulated relationships between air and near-surface (20 cm) soil temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region during winter, with a particular focus on snow insulation effects in nine land surface models, and compare them with observations from 268 Russian stations. There are large cross-model differences in the simulated differences between near-surface soil and air temperatures (ΔT; 3 to 14 °C), in the sensitivity of soil-to-air temperature (0.13 to 0.96 °C °C−1), and in the relationship between ΔT and snow depth. The observed relationship between ΔT and snow depth can be used as a metric to evaluate the effects of each model's representation of snow insulation, hence guide improvements to the model's conceptual structure and process parameterisations. Models with better performance apply multilayer snow schemes and consider complex snow processes. Some models show poor performance in representing snow insulation due to underestimation of snow depth and/or overestimation of snow conductivity. Generally, models identified as most acceptable with respect to snow insulation simulate reasonable areas of near-surface permafrost (13.19 to 15.77 million km2). However, there is not a simple relationship between the sophistication of the snow insulation in the acceptable models and the simulated area of Northern Hemisphere near-surface permafrost, because several other factors, such as soil depth used in the models, the treatment of soil organic matter content, hydrology and vegetation cover, also affect the simulated permafrost distribution.

scholarly journals Satellite observations of changes in snow-covered land surface albedo during spring in the Northern Hemisphere

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1879-1893 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Atlaskina ◽  
F. Berninger ◽  
G. de Leeuw
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Snow Cover Fraction ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

Abstract. Thirteen years of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) surface albedo data for the Northern Hemisphere during the spring months (March–May) were analyzed to determine temporal and spatial changes over snow-covered land surfaces. Tendencies in land surface albedo change north of 50° N were analyzed using data on snow cover fraction, air temperature, vegetation index and precipitation. To this end, the study domain was divided into six smaller areas, based on their geographical position and climate similarity. Strong differences were observed between these areas. As expected, snow cover fraction (SCF) has a strong influence on the albedo in the study area and can explain 56 % of variation of albedo in March, 76 % in April and 92 % in May. Therefore the effects of other parameters were investigated only for areas with 100 % SCF. The second largest driver for snow-covered land surface albedo changes is the air temperature when it exceeds a value between −15 and −10 °C, depending on the region. At monthly mean air temperatures below this value no albedo changes are observed. The Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and precipitation amount and frequency were independently examined as possible candidates to explain observed changes in albedo for areas with 100 % SCF. Amount and frequency of precipitation were identified to influence the albedo over some areas in Eurasia and North America, but no clear effects were observed in other areas. EVI is positively correlated with albedo in Chukotka Peninsula and negatively in eastern Siberia. For other regions the spatial variability of the correlation fields is too high to reach any conclusions.

scholarly journals A Slight Temperature Warming Trend Occurred over Lake Ontario from 2001 to 2018

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 1315
Author(s):  
Xiaoying Ouyang ◽  
Dongmei Chen ◽  
Shugui Zhou ◽  
Rui Zhang ◽  
Jinxin Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Lake Ontario ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Ground Measurement ◽  
Moderate Resolution ◽  
Resolution Imaging ◽  
Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ◽  
Mean Square Difference

Satellite-derived lake surface water temperature (LSWT) measurements can be used for monitoring purposes. However, analyses based on the LSWT of Lake Ontario and the surrounding land surface temperature (LST) are scarce in the current literature. First, we provide an evaluation of the commonly used Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived LSWT/LST (MOD11A1 and MYD11A1) using in situ measurements near the area of where Lake Ontario, the St. Lawrence River and the Rideau Canal meet. The MODIS datasets agreed well with ground sites measurements from 2015–2017, with an R2 consistently over 0.90. Among the different ground measurement sites, the best results were achieved for Hill Island, with a correlation of 0.99 and centered root mean square difference (RMSD) of 0.73 K for Aqua/MYD nighttime. The validated MODIS datasets were used to analyze the temperature trend over the study area from 2001 to 2018, through a linear regression method with a Mann–Kendall test. A slight warming trend was found, with 95% confidence over the ground sites from 2003 to 2012 for the MYD11A1-Night datasets. The warming trend for the whole region, including both the lake and the land, was about 0.17 K year−1 for the MYD11A1 datasets during 2003–2012, whereas it was about 0.06 K year−1 during 2003–2018. There was also a spatial pattern of warming, but the trend for the lake region was not obviously different from that of the land region. For the monthly trends, the warming trends for September and October from 2013 to 2018 are much more apparent than those of other months.

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