scholarly journals Predictions of Indian Ocean SST Indices with a Simple Statistical Model: A Null Hypothesis

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (18) ◽  
pp. 4930-4938 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dietmar Dommenget ◽  
Malte Jansen
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Model Studies ◽  
Sst Variability ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract Several recent general circulation model studies discuss the predictability of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) mode, suggesting that it is predictable because of coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions in the Indian Ocean. However, it is not clear from these studies how much of the predictability is due to the response to El Niño. It is shown in this note that a simple statistical model that treats the Indian Ocean as a red noise process forced by tropical Pacific SST shows forecast skills comparable to those of recent general circulation model studies. The results also indicate that some of the eastern tropical Indian Ocean SST predictability in recent studies may indeed be beyond the skill of the simple model proposed in this note, indicating that dynamics in the Indian Ocean may have caused this improved predictability in this region. The model further indicates that the IOD index may be the least predictable index of Indian Ocean SST variability. The model is proposed as a null hypothesis for Indian Ocean SST predictions.

scholarly journals Decadal SST Variability in the Southeast Indian Ocean and Its Impact on Regional Climate

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (19) ◽  
pp. 6299-6318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanlong Li ◽  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Fan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Heat Flux ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Turbulent Heat ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Offshore Area ◽  
Sst Variability

Abstract The southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) exhibits decadal variability in sea surface temperature (SST) with amplitudes of ~0.2–0.3 K and covaries with the central Pacific (r = −0.63 with Niño-4 index for 1975–2010). In this study, the generation mechanisms of decadal SST variability are explored using an ocean general circulation model (OGCM), and its impact on atmosphere is evaluated using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). OGCM experiments reveal that Pacific forcing through the Indonesian Throughflow explains <20% of the total SST variability, and the contribution of local wind stress is also small. These wind-forced anomalies mainly occur near the Western Australian coast. The majority of SST variability is attributed to surface heat fluxes. The reduced upward turbulent heat flux (QT; latent plus sensible heat flux), owing to decreased wind speed and anomalous warm, moist air advection, is essential for the growth of warm SST anomalies (SSTAs). The warming causes reduction of low cloud cover that increases surface shortwave radiation (SWR) and further promotes the warming. However, the resultant high SST, along with the increased wind speed in the offshore area, enhances the upward QT and begins to cool the ocean. Warm SSTAs co-occur with cyclonic low-level wind anomalies in the SEIO and enhanced rainfall over Indonesia and northwest Australia. AGCM experiments suggest that although the tropical Pacific SST has strong effects on the SEIO region through atmospheric teleconnection, the cyclonic winds and increased rainfall are mainly caused by the SEIO warming through local air–sea interactions.

scholarly journals North Atlantic Oscillation Response to Anomalous Indian Ocean SST in a Coupled GCM

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (24) ◽  
pp. 5382-5389 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jürgen Bader ◽  
Mojib Latif
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Atlantic Sector ◽  
The North ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The North Atlantic

Abstract The dominant pattern of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic sector is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Since the 1970s the NAO has been well characterized by a trend toward its positive phase. Recent atmospheric general circulation model studies have linked this trend to a progressive warming of the Indian Ocean. Unfortunately, a clear mechanism responsible for the change of the NAO could not be given. This study provides further details of the NAO response to Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This is done by conducting experiments with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM). The authors develop a hypothesis of how the Indian Ocean impacts the NAO.

A General Circulation Model of the Indian Ocean at 9000 Years B.P.

1992 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. R. Bigg ◽  
D. Jiang ◽  
J. F. B. Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
General Circulation Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
The Indian Ocean
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