Physical Mechanisms Linking the Winter Pacific–North American Teleconnection Pattern to Spring North American Snow Depth

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (19) ◽  
pp. 5135-5148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Ge ◽  
Gavin Gong ◽  
Allan Frei

Abstract The wintertime Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern has previously been shown to influence springtime snow conditions over portions of North America. This paper develops a more complete physical understanding of this linkage across the continent, using a recently released long-term, continental-scale gridded North American snow depth dataset and the 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis data. An empirical orthogonal function–based filtering process is used to identify and isolate the interannual snow depth variations associated with PNA. Then linear and partial correlations are employed to investigate the physical mechanisms that link winter PNA with spring snow depth. In the positive phase of PNA, the enhanced PNA pressure centers lead to warmer temperatures over northwestern North America and less precipitation at midlatitudes. The temperature and precipitation pathways act independently and in distinct geographical regions, and together they serve to reduce winter snow depth across much of North America. Winter anomalies in the snow depth field then tend to persist into spring. Dynamic mechanisms responsible for the PNA-influenced North American precipitation and temperature anomalies, involving moisture transport and cold air intrusions, are confirmed in this study and also extended to continental snow depth anomalies.

2011 ◽  
Vol 139 (5) ◽  
pp. 1305-1322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard E. Orville ◽  
Gary R. Huffines ◽  
William R. Burrows ◽  
Kenneth L. Cummins

Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data have been analyzed for the years 2001–09 for North America, which includes Alaska, Canada, and the lower 48 U.S. states. Flashes recorded within the North American Lightning Detection Network (NALDN) are examined. No corrections for detection efficiency variability are made over the 9 yr of the dataset or over the large geographical area comprising North America. There were network changes in the NALDN during the 9 yr, but these changes have not been corrected for nor have the recorded data been altered in any way with the exception that all positive lightning reports with peak currents less than 15 kA have been deleted. Thus, the reader should be aware that secular changes are not just climatological in nature. All data were analyzed with a spatial resolution of 20 km. The analyses presented in this work provide a synoptic view of the interannual variability of lightning observations in North America, including the impacts of physical changes in the network during the 9 yr of study. These data complement and extend previous analyses that evaluate the U.S. NLDN during periods of upgrade. The total (negative and positive) flashes for ground flash density, the percentage of positive lightning, and the positive flash density have been analyzed. Furthermore, the negative and positive first stroke peak currents and the flash multiplicity have been examined. The highest flash densities in Canada are along the U.S.–Canadian border (1–2 flashes per square kilometer) and in the United States along the Gulf of Mexico coast from Texas through Florida (exceeding 14 flashes per square kilometer in Florida). The Gulf Stream is “outlined” by higher flash densities off the east coast of the United States. Maximum annual positive flash densities in Canada range primarily from 0.01 to 0.3 flashes per square kilometer, and in the United States to over 0.5 flashes per square kilometer in the Midwest and in the states of Louisiana and Mississippi. The annual percentage of positive lightning to ground varies from less than 2% over Florida to values exceeding 25% off the West Coast, Alaska, and the Yukon. A localized maximum in the percentage of positive lightning in the NALDN occurs in Manitoba and western Ontario, just north of North Dakota and Minnesota. When averaged over North America, first stroke negative median peak currents range from 19.8 kA in 2001 to 16.0 kA in 2009 and for all years, average 16.1 kA. First stroke positive median peak currents range from a high of 29.0 kA in 2008 and 2009 to a low of 23.3 kA in 2003 with a median of 25.7 kA for all years. There is a relatively sharp transition from low to high median negative peak currents along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the United States. No sharp transitions are observed for the median positive peak currents. Relatively lower positive peak currents occur throughout the southeastern United States. The highest values of mean negative multiplicity exceed 3.0 strokes per flash in the NALDN with some variation over the 9 yr. Lower values of mean negative multiplicity occur in the western United States. Positive flash mean multiplicity is slightly higher than 1.1, with the highest values of 1.7 observed in the southwestern states. As has been noted in prior research, CG lightning has significant variations from storm to storm as well as between geographical regions and/or seasons and, consequently, a single distribution for any lightning parameter, such as multiplicity or peak current, may not be sufficient to represent or describe the parameter.


2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (13) ◽  
pp. 3340-3345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongfang Liu ◽  
Yanlin Tang ◽  
Zhimin Jian ◽  
Christopher J. Poulsen ◽  
Jeffrey M. Welker ◽  
...  

Land and sea surface temperatures, precipitation, and storm tracks in North America and the North Pacific are controlled to a large degree by atmospheric variability associated with the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. The modern instrumental record indicates a trend toward a positive PNA phase in recent decades, which has led to accelerated warming and snowpack decline in northwestern North America. The brevity of the instrumental record, however, limits our understanding of long-term PNA variability and its directional or cyclic patterns. Here we develop a 937-y-long reconstruction of the winter PNA based on a network of annually resolved tree-ring proxy records across North America. The reconstruction is consistent with previous regional records in suggesting that the recent persistent positive PNA pattern is unprecedented over the past millennium, but documents patterns of decadal-scale variability that contrast with previous reconstructions. Our reconstruction shows that PNA has been strongly and consistently correlated with sea surface temperature variation, solar irradiance, and volcanic forcing over the period of record, and played a significant role in translating these forcings into decadal-to-multidecadal hydroclimate variability over North America. Climate model ensembles show limited power to predict multidecadal variation in PNA over the period of our record, raising questions about their potential to project future hydroclimatic change modulated by this circulation pattern.


2011 ◽  
Vol 137 (655) ◽  
pp. 329-346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Franzke ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein ◽  
Sukyoung Lee

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 4425-4468
Author(s):  
D. Zanchettin ◽  
O. Bothe ◽  
F. Lehner ◽  
P. Ortega ◽  
C. C. Raible ◽  
...  

Abstract. Reconstructions of past climate behavior often describe prominent anomalous periods that are not necessarily captured in climate simulations. Here, we illustrate the contrast between an interdecadal strong positive phase of the winter Pacific/North American pattern (PNA) in the early 19th century that is described by a PNA reconstruction based on tree-rings from northwestern North America, and a slight tendency towards negative winter PNA anomalies during the same period in an ensemble of state-of-the-art coupled climate simulations. Additionally, a pseudo-proxy investigation with the same simulation ensemble allows assessing the robustness of PNA reconstructions using solely geophysical predictors from northwestern North America for the last millennium. The reconstructed early-19th-century positive PNA anomaly emerges as a potentially reliable feature, although it is subject to a number of sources of uncertainty and potential deficiencies. The pseudo-reconstructions demonstrate that the early-19th-century discrepancy between reconstructed and simulated PNA does not stem from the reconstruction process. Instead, reconstructed and simulated features of the early-19th-century PNA can be reconciled by interpreting the reconstructed evolution during this time as an expression of internal climate variability, hence unlikely to be reproduced in its exact temporal occurrence by a small ensemble of climate simulations. However, firm attribution of the reconstructed PNA anomaly is hampered by known limitations and deficiencies of coupled climate models and uncertainties in the early-19th-century external forcing and background climate conditions.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natalie R. Hofmeister ◽  
Scott J. Werner ◽  
Irby J. Lovette

ABSTRACTPopulations of invasive species that colonize and spread in novel environments may differentiate both through demographic processes and local selection. European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) were introduced to New York in 1890 and subsequently spread throughout North America, becoming one of the most widespread and numerous bird species on the continent. Genome-wide comparisons across starling individuals and populations can identify demographic and/or selective factors that facilitated this rapid and successful expansion. We investigated patterns of genomic diversity and differentiation using reduced-representation genome sequencing (ddRADseq) of 17 winter-season starling populations. Consistent with this species’ high dispersal rate and rapid expansion history, we found low geographic differentiation and few FST outliers even at a continental scale. Despite starting from a founding population of approximately 180 individuals, North American starlings show only a moderate genetic bottleneck, and models suggest a dramatic increase in effective population size since introduction. In genotype-environment associations we found that ∼200 single-nucleotide polymorphisms are correlated with temperature and/or precipitation against a background of negligible genome- and range-wide divergence. Local adaptation in North American starlings may have evolved rapidly even in this wide-ranging and evolutionarily young population. This survey of genomic signatures of expansion in North American starlings is the most comprehensive to date and complements ongoing studies of world-wide local adaptation in these highly dispersive and invasive birds.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ebrahim Nabizadeh ◽  
Sandro Lubis ◽  
Pedram Hassanzadeh

Forecast skills of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and intrinsic predictability can be flow-dependent, e.g., different amongweather regimes. Here, we have examined the predictability of distinct Pacific-North American weather regimes in June-September. Fourweather regimes are identified using a self-organizing map analysis of daily 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies, and are shown to havedistinct and coherent links to near-surface temperature and precipitation anomalies over the North American continent. The 4 to 14-dayforecast skills of these 4 regimes are quantified for the ECMWF and the NCEP models (from the TIGGE project) and the Global EnsembleForecast System (GEFS). Based on anomaly correlation coefficient, persistence, and transition frequency, the highest forecast skills areconsistently found for regime 3 (Arctic high). In general, the least skillful forecasts are for regime 1 (Pacific trough). The instantaneous localdimension and persistence of each regime are computed using a dynamical systems-based analysis. The local dimension and persistenceare indicators of intrinsic predictability. This analysis robustly shows that regime 3 has the highest intrinsic predictability. The analysisalso suggests that overall, regime 1 has the lowest intrinsic predictability. These findings are consistent with the high (low) forecast skillsof NWP models for regime 3 (regime 1). Weather regime 1 is associated with above-normal temperature and precipitation anomalies overwestern North America and around the Gulf of Mexico region, indicating potentially important implications for the poor predictability ofthis regime. The dynamical systems analysis suggests that better estimates of initial conditions might improve the forecasts of this regime.


2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (18) ◽  
pp. 7750-7757 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhongfang Liu ◽  
Zhimin Jian ◽  
Kei Yoshimura ◽  
Nikolaus H. Buenning ◽  
Christopher J. Poulsen ◽  
...  

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document