scholarly journals Linear Contributions of Different Time Scales to Teleconnectivity

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (13) ◽  
pp. 3720-3728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panos J. Athanasiadis ◽  
Maarten H. P. Ambaum
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Low Frequencies ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Different Time Scales

Abstract The contributions of different time scales to extratropical teleconnections are examined. By applying empirical orthogonal functions and correlation analyses to reanalysis data, it is shown that eddies with periods shorter than 10 days have no linear contribution to teleconnectivity. Instead, synoptic variability follows wavelike patterns along the storm tracks, interpreted as propagating baroclinic disturbances. In agreement with preceding studies, it is found that teleconnections such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific–North America (PNA) pattern occur only at low frequencies, typically for periods more than 20 days. Low-frequency potential vorticity variability is shown to follow patterns analogous to known teleconnections but with shapes that differ considerably from them. It is concluded that the role, if any, of synoptic eddies in determining and forcing teleconnections needs to be sought in nonlinear interactions with the slower transients. The present results demonstrate that daily variability of teleconnection indices cannot be interpreted in terms of the teleconnection patterns, only the slow part of the variability.

Accelerated Iterative Method for Solving Steady Problems of Linearized Atmospheric Models

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (12) ◽  
pp. 3366-3382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masahiro Watanabe ◽  
Fei-fei Jin ◽  
Lin Pan
Keyword(s):  
Iterative Method ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
True Solution ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
The North ◽  
Asymmetric Component ◽  
Efficient Scheme ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

A new approach, referred to as the accelerated iterative method (AIM), is developed for obtaining steady atmospheric responses with a zonally varying basic state. The linear dynamical operator is divided into two parts, one associated with the zonally symmetric component and the other with the asymmetric component of the basic state. To ensure an accelerated convergence of the iteration to the true solution, the two parts of the operator are modified by adding and subtracting an identical “accelerating” operator. AIM is shown to be an efficient scheme well suited for computing the higher-resolution, steady atmospheric response of barotropic and more so of baroclinic numerical models linearized about a zonally varying basic state. A preliminary application of AIM to the T42 baroclinic model linearized about the observed winter (December–February) climatology is presented. A series of steady responses forced by the diabatic heating and transient eddy forcing, both estimated from reanalysis data for individual winters during 1960–2002, captures a certain part of the observed interannual variability associated with dominant teleconnection patterns, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Pacific–North American pattern. Thus, AIM should be a useful tool for the diagnostic studies of the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere.

scholarly journals Winter Cyclone Regimes Over The North Atlantic

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veronika N. Maslova ◽  
Elena N. Voskresenskaya ◽  
Alexander V. Yurovsky ◽  
Mikhail Yu. Bardin
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
East Atlantic ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
The Third ◽  
The North ◽  
Function Decomposition ◽  
Spectral Peaks ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract To study regimes of winter cyclones in the North Atlantic, empirical orthogonal function decomposition was applied separately to the frequency, depth and area of cyclones obtained using 6-hourly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data in 1952–2017 and the developed methodology. The first mode represented the opposite changes of cyclone anomalies in the northern and southern/central North Atlantic. The second mode was characterized by the greatest regional anomalies between its phases over Europe, off its coast and over the Mediterranean. The greatest changes of anomalies for the third modes were in temperate latitudes, both over the ocean and Europe. Linear trends were significant only for the first modes of cyclone parameters. The largest part of variability (74–90% of dispersion) of all cyclone modes corresponded to the periods up to 15 years and was used for spectral analysis, which identified significant spectral peaks: 2.5–3, 4.5, 6 and 8.5 years. These periods coincided with spectral peaks of the main interannual climate signals. Regression analysis allowed to identify the sets of teleconnection patterns responsible jointly for 60–85% of dispersion of the first cyclone modes. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation were the main patterns for the first modes of the cyclone parameters. For the second and third frequency modes, the East Atlantic (EA) pattern and a combination of the East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) and Scandinavia patterns played the major role, respectively. As for the third depth and area modes, the association with the EA and EA/WR patterns was shown, respectively.

scholarly journals An Empirical Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting Model for the Northeast Region of Brazil

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 1613
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Lins da Rocha Júnior ◽  
David Duarte Cavalcante Pinto ◽  
Fabrício Daniel dos Santos Silva ◽  
Heliofábio Barros Gomes ◽  
Helber Barros Gomes ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Rainfall Forecasting ◽  
Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Northeast Region ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
The North

The Northeast region of Brazil (NEB) is characterized by large climate variability that causes extreme and long unseasonal wet and dry periods. Despite significant model developments to improve seasonal forecasting for the NEB, the achievement of a satisfactory accuracy often remains a challenge, and forecasting methods aimed at reducing uncertainties regarding future climate are needed. In this work, we implement and assess the performance of an empirical model (EmpM) based on a decomposition of historical data into dominant modes of precipitation and seasonal forecast applied to the NEB domain. We analyzed the model’s performance for the February-March-April quarter and compared its results with forecasts based on data from the North American Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) project for the same period. We found that the first three leading precipitation modes obtained by empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) explained most of the rainfall variability for the season of interest. Thereby, this study focuses on them for the forecast evaluations. A teleconnection analysis shows that most of the variability in precipitation comes from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in various areas of the Pacific and the tropical Atlantic. The modes exhibit different spatial patterns across the NEB, with the first being concentrated in the northern half of the region and presenting remarkable associations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), both linked to the latitudinal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). As for the second mode, the correlations with oceanic regions and its loading pattern point to the influence of the incursion of frontal systems in the southern NEB. The time series of the third mode implies the influence of a lower frequency mode of variability, probably related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). The teleconnection patterns found in the analysis allowed for a reliable forecast of the time series of each mode, which, combined, result in the final rainfall prediction outputted by the model. Overall, the EmpM outperformed the post-processed NMME for most of the NEB, except for some areas along the northern region, where the NMME showed superiority.

scholarly journals Observed Low-Frequency Covariabilities between the Tropical Oceans and the North Atlantic Oscillation in the Twentieth Century

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1032-1041 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin P. King ◽  
Fred Kucharski
Keyword(s):  
Twentieth Century ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Maximum Covariance Analysis ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract The low-frequency covariabilities of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during twentieth-century winters are investigated by maximum covariance analysis (MCA) using reanalysis data. It was found that the positive NAO phase is positively correlated to an increase in tropical SST, especially during the recent decades. The western tropical Pacific SST displays high correlation with the NAO throughout the whole of the twentieth century. For this ocean region, the MCA homogeneous map has a SST spatial pattern with meridional gradients. It was also found that a cooling of tropical Atlantic SST is correlated with positive NAO. The influence of the tropical Atlantic SST on the NAO is strongest during the pre-1960s period.

scholarly journals Empirical Mode Reduction in a Model of Extratropical Low-Frequency Variability

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (7) ◽  
pp. 1859-1877 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Kondrashov ◽  
S. Kravtsov ◽  
M. Ghil
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Study ◽  
Singular Spectrum Analysis ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Reduced Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
Intraseasonal Oscillations ◽  
The Arctic Oscillation ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract This paper constructs and analyzes a reduced nonlinear stochastic model of extratropical low-frequency variability. To do so, it applies multilevel quadratic regression to the output of a long simulation of a global baroclinic, quasigeostrophic, three-level (QG3) model with topography; the model's phase space has a dimension of O(104). The reduced model has 45 variables and captures well the non-Gaussian features of the QG3 model's probability density function (PDF). In particular, the reduced model's PDF shares with the QG3 model its four anomalously persistent flow patterns, which correspond to opposite phases of the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, as well as the Markov chain of transitions between these regimes. In addition, multichannel singular spectrum analysis identifies intraseasonal oscillations with a period of 35–37 days and of 20 days in the data generated by both the QG3 model and its low-dimensional analog. An analytical and numerical study of the reduced model starts with the fixed points and oscillatory eigenmodes of the model's deterministic part and uses systematically an increasing noise parameter to connect these with the behavior of the full, stochastically forced model version. The results of this study point to the origin of the QG3 model's multiple regimes and intraseasonal oscillations and identify the connections between the two types of behavior.

scholarly journals On the Nonlinearity of Winter Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Variability

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 333-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Hannachi ◽  
W. Iqbal
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Local Flow ◽  
The North

Abstract Nonlinearity in the Northern Hemisphere’s wintertime atmospheric flow is investigated from both an intermediate-complexity model of the extratropics and reanalyses. A long simulation is obtained using a three-level quasigeostrophic model on the sphere. Kernel empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), which help delineate complex structures, are used along with the local flow tendencies. Two fixed points are obtained, which are associated with strong bimodality in two-dimensional kernel principal component (PC) space, consistent with conceptual low-order dynamics. The regimes reflect zonal and blocked flows. The analysis is then extended to ERA-40 and JRA-55 using daily sea level pressure (SLP) and geopotential heights in the stratosphere (20 hPa) and troposphere (500 hPa). In the stratosphere, trimodality is obtained, representing disturbed, displaced, and undisturbed states of the winter polar vortex. In the troposphere, the probability density functions (PDFs), for both fields, within the two-dimensional (2D) kernel EOF space are strongly bimodal. The modes correspond broadly to opposite phases of the Arctic Oscillation with a signature of the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Over the North Atlantic–European sector, a trimodal PDF is also obtained with two strong and one weak modes. The strong modes are associated, respectively, with the north (or +NAO) and south (or −NAO) positions of the eddy-driven jet stream. The third weak mode is interpreted as a transition path between the two positions. A climate change signal is also observed in the troposphere of the winter hemisphere, resulting in an increase (a decrease) in the frequency of the polar high (low), consistent with an increase of zonal flow frequency.

scholarly journals Multidecadal to millennial marine climate oscillations across the Denmark Strait (~ 66° N) over the last 2000 cal yr BP

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 325-343 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. T. Andrews ◽  
A. E. Jennings
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
The North ◽  
Denmark Strait ◽  
Water Stratification ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Frequency Variations ◽  
Marine Climate

Abstract. In the area of Denmark Strait (~66° N), the two modes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) are expressed in changes of the northward flux of Atlantic water and the southward advection of polar water in the East Iceland current. Proxies from marine cores along an environmental gradient from extensive to little or no drift ice, capture low frequency variations over the last 2000 cal yr BP. Key proxies are the weight% of calcite, a measure of surface water stratification and nutrient supply, the weight% of quartz, a measure of drift ice transport, and grain size. Records from Nansen and Kangerlussuaq fjords show variable ice-rafted debris (IRD) records but have distinct mineralogy associated with differences in the fjord catchment bedrock. A comparison between cores on either side of the Denmark Strait (MD99-2322 and MD99-2269) show a remarkable millennial-scale similarity in the trends of the weight% of calcite with a trough reached during the Little Ice Age. However, the quartz records from these two sites are quite different. The calcite records from the Denmark Strait parallel the 2000 yr Arctic summer-temperature reconstructions; analysis of the detrended calcite and quartz data reveal significant multi-decadal–century periodicities superimposed on a major environmental shift occurring ca. 1450 AD.

scholarly journals Dynamics of Eddy-Driven Low-Frequency Dipole Modes. Part I: A Simple Model of North Atlantic Oscillations

2007 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 3-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dehai Luo ◽  
Anthony R. Lupo ◽  
Han Wan
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Theoretical Model ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
Negative Phase ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Planetary Scale ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract A simple theoretical model is proposed to clarify how synoptic-scale waves drive the life cycle of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with a period of nearly two weeks. This model is able to elucidate what determines the phase of the NAO and an analytical solution is presented to indicate a high similarity between the dynamical processes of the NAO and zonal index, which is not derived analytically in previous theoretical studies. It is suggested theoretically that the NAO is indeed a nonlinear initial-value problem, which is forced by both preexisting planetary-scale and synoptic-scale waves. The eddy forcing arising from the preexisting synoptic-scale waves is shown to be crucial for the growth and decay of the NAO, but the preexisting low-over-high (high-over-low) dipole planetary-scale wave must be required to match the preexisting positive-over-negative (negative-over-positive) dipole eddy forcing so as to excite a positive (negative) phase NAO event. The positive and negative feedbacks of the preexisting dipole eddy forcing depending upon the background westerly wind seem to dominate the life cycle of the NAO and its life period. An important finding in the theoretical model is that negative-phase NAO events could be excited repeatedly after the first event has decayed, but for the positive phase downstream isolated dipole blocks could be produced after the first event has decayed. This is supported by observed cases of the NAO events presented in this paper. In addition, a statistical study of the relationship between the phase of the NAO and blocking activity over Europe in terms of the seasonal mean NAO index shows that blocking events over Europe are more frequent and long-lived for strong positive-phase NAO years, indicating that the positive-phase NAO favors the occurrence of European blocking events.

scholarly journals Multilevel Regression Modeling of Nonlinear Processes: Derivation and Applications to Climatic Variability

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 4404-4424 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Kravtsov ◽  
D. Kondrashov ◽  
M. Ghil
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Dynamics ◽  
Polynomial Regression ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Inverse Model ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Multilevel Regression ◽  
Coherent Noise ◽  
Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Constant Matrix

Abstract Predictive models are constructed to best describe an observed field’s statistics within a given class of nonlinear dynamics driven by a spatially coherent noise that is white in time. For linear dynamics, such inverse stochastic models are obtained by multiple linear regression (MLR). Nonlinear dynamics, when more appropriate, is accommodated by applying multiple polynomial regression (MPR) instead; the resulting model uses polynomial predictors, but the dependence on the regression parameters is linear in both MPR and MLR. The basic concepts are illustrated using the Lorenz convection model, the classical double-well problem, and a three-well problem in two space dimensions. Given a data sample that is long enough, MPR successfully reconstructs the model coefficients in the former two cases, while the resulting inverse model captures the three-regime structure of the system’s probability density function (PDF) in the latter case. A novel multilevel generalization of the classic regression procedure is introduced next. In this generalization, the residual stochastic forcing at a given level is subsequently modeled as a function of variables at this level and all the preceding ones. The number of levels is determined so that the lag-0 covariance of the residual forcing converges to a constant matrix, while its lag-1 covariance vanishes. This method has been applied to the output of a three-layer, quasigeostrophic model and to the analysis of Northern Hemisphere wintertime geopotential height anomalies. In both cases, the inverse model simulations reproduce well the multiregime structure of the PDF constructed in the subspace spanned by the dataset’s leading empirical orthogonal functions, as well as the detailed spectrum of the dataset’s temporal evolution. These encouraging results are interpreted in terms of the modeled low-frequency flow’s feedback on the statistics of the subgrid-scale processes.

scholarly journals Exploring Combined Influences of Seasonal East Atlantic (EA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (Nao) on the Temperature-Precipitation Relationship in the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando S. Rodrigo
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
East Atlantic ◽  
Teleconnection Patterns ◽  
The North ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

The combined influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the East Atlantic (EA) patterns on the covariability of temperatures and precipitation in 35 stations of the Iberian Peninsula during the period 1950-2019 is analysed in this work. Four EA-NAO composites were defined from teleconnection patterns positive and negative phases: EA+NAO+, EA+NAO-, EA-NAO+, and EA-NAO-. Daily data of maximum and minimum temperature were used to obtain seasonal means (TX, and TN, respectively), and the covariability of these variables with accumulated seasonal rainfall (R) was studied comparing results obtained for different NAO and EA composites. Main results indicate slight differences in the spatial coverage of correlation coefficients between R and temperature variables, except in spring when the generalized negative relationship between R and TX under EA+NAO+ and EA-NAO- disappears under EA-NAO+ and EA+NAO- composites. This result may be useful to interpret and discuss historical reconstructions of Iberian climate.

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