scholarly journals On the Relationship between North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and U.S. Hurricane Landfall Risk

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter S. Dailey ◽  
Gerhard Zuba ◽  
Greta Ljung ◽  
Ioana M. Dima ◽  
Jayanta Guin
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Gulf Coast ◽  
Ocean Basin ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Physical Analysis ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Complete Life Cycle ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
The U.S

Abstract In the recent literature, considerable attention has been paid to the relationship between climate signals and tropical cyclone activity. Much of the research has focused on Atlantic Ocean basin activity while less attention has been given to landfall frequency and the geographic distribution of risk to life and property. However, recent active seasons like 2004 and 2005 and the resulting damage and economic loss have generated significant interest in the relationship between climate and landfall risk. This study focuses on sea surface temperatures (SST) and examines modulation of landfall activity occurring in anomalously warm-SST seasons. The objective of the study is to evaluate the effect of warmer ocean conditions on U.S. landfall risk. The study is broken into two parts–—statistical and physical. The statistical analysis categorizes historical hurricane seasons as either warm or cool and then estimates shifts in landfall frequency under these two climate modes. The analysis is carried out for overall U.S. landfall risk and then for logical subregions along the U.S. coastline. The climatological behavior for warm-SST conditions is developed across the intensity spectrum, from weak tropical storms to major hurricanes, using wind speed as an intensity measure. The analysis suggests that landfall risk is sensitive to SST conditions but that sensitivity varies by region and intensity. The uncertainty associated with these estimates is discussed. The physical analysis is carried out to understand better why landfall risk is not affected uniformly along the U.S. coastline and to reinforce the reasonability of the statistical results. The study involves a detailed examination of the complete life cycle of historical storms. Results indicate that storms making landfall along the East Coast have different genesis and intensification characteristics relative to storms making landfall along the Gulf Coast. As SSTs warm, the genesis pattern shifts, greatly influencing regional landfall risk. Further, hurricane landfalls may react not only to warm-SST conditions, but also to the effect of ocean temperature anomalies on the atmosphere’s general circulation. There are implications that complex feedback mechanisms play a role in modulating the probability of landfall, especially from certain parts of the Atlantic basin. Such physical theories provide added confidence in statistical estimates of elevated risk for certain breeds of tropical cyclones.

scholarly journals A spatiotemporal reconstruction of sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic during Dansgaard–Oeschger events 5–8

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 901-922 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mari F. Jensen ◽  
Aleksi Nummelin ◽  
Søren B. Nielsen ◽  
Henrik Sadatzki ◽  
Evangeline Sessford ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Reconstruction Method ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Temperature Reconstructions

Abstract. Here, we establish a spatiotemporal evolution of the sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic over Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) events 5–8 (approximately 30–40 kyr) using the proxy surrogate reconstruction method. Proxy data suggest a large variability in North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures during the DO events of the last glacial period. However, proxy data availability is limited and cannot provide a full spatial picture of the oceanic changes. Therefore, we combine fully coupled, general circulation model simulations with planktic foraminifera based sea-surface temperature reconstructions to obtain a broader spatial picture of the ocean state during DO events 5–8. The resulting spatial sea-surface temperature patterns agree over a number of different general circulation models and simulations. We find that sea-surface temperature variability over the DO events is characterized by colder conditions in the subpolar North Atlantic during stadials than during interstadials, and the variability is linked to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation and in the sea-ice cover. Forced simulations are needed to capture the strength of the temperature variability and to reconstruct the variability in other climatic records not directly linked to the sea-surface temperature reconstructions. This is the first time the proxy surrogate reconstruction method has been applied to oceanic variability during MIS3. Our results remain robust, even when age uncertainties of proxy data, the number of available temperature reconstructions, and different climate models are considered. However, we also highlight shortcomings of the methodology that should be addressed in future implementations.

scholarly journals GCM Systematic Error Correction and Specification of the Seasonal Mean Pacific–North America Region Atmosphere from Global SSTs

1999 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 273-288 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas M. Smith ◽  
Robert E. Livezey
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Systematic Errors ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Average Output ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Model Variability ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Specifications of 1- and 3-month mean Pacific–North America region 700-hPa heights and U.S. surface temperatures and precipitation, from global sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the ensemble average output of multiple runs of a general circulation model with the same SSTs prescribed, were explored with canonical correlation analysis. In addition to considerable specification skill, the authors found that 1) systematic errors in SST-forced model variability had substantial linear parts, 2) use of both predictor fields usually enhanced specification performance for the U.S. fields over that for just one of the predictor fields, and 3) skillful specification and model correction of the heights and temperatures were also possible for nonactive or transitional El Niño–Southern Oscillation situations.

The Transient Circulation Response to Radiative Forcings and Sea Surface Warming*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (24) ◽  
pp. 9323-9336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul W. Staten ◽  
Thomas Reichler ◽  
Jian Lu
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Indirect Response ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Impact Surface ◽  
Surface Temperatures

Abstract Tropospheric circulation shifts have strong potential to impact surface climate. However, the magnitude of these shifts in a changing climate and the attending regional hydrological changes are difficult to project. Part of this difficulty arises from the lack of understanding of the physical mechanisms behind the circulation shifts themselves. To better delineate circulation shifts and their respective causes the circulation response is decomposed into 1) the “direct” response to radiative forcings themselves and 2) the “indirect” response to changing sea surface temperatures. Using ensembles of 90-day climate model simulations with immediate switch-on forcings, including perturbed greenhouse gas concentrations, stratospheric ozone concentrations, and sea surface temperatures, this paper documents the direct and indirect transient responses of the zonal-mean general circulation, and investigates the roles of previously proposed mechanisms in shifting the midlatitude jet. It is found that both the direct and indirect wind responses often begin in the lower stratosphere. Changes in midlatitude eddies are ubiquitous and synchronous with the midlatitude zonal wind response. Shifts in the critical latitude of wave absorption on either flank of the jet are not indicted as primary factors for the poleward-shifting jet, although some evidence for increasing equatorward wave reflection over the Southern Hemisphere in response to sea surface warming is seen. Mechanisms for the Northern Hemisphere jet shift are less clear.

scholarly journals The effect of global climate change on the future distribution of economically important macroalgae (seaweeds) in the northwest Atlantic

FACETS ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 275-286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amina H. Khan ◽  
Elisabeth Levac ◽  
Lou Van Guelphen ◽  
Gerhard Pohle ◽  
Gail L. Chmura
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Marine Macroalgae ◽  
Saccharina Latissima ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Surface Temperatures

An increase in greenhouse gas emissions has led to a rise in average global air and ocean temperatures. Increased sea surface temperatures can cause changes in species’ distributions, particularly those species close to their thermal tolerance limits. We use a bioclimate envelope approach to assess potential shifts in the range of marine macroalgae harvested in North American waters: rockweed ( Fucus vesiculosus Linnaeus, 1753), serrated wrack ( Fucus serratus Linnaeus, 1753), knotted wrack ( Ascophyllum nodosum (Linnaeus) Le Jolis, 1863), carrageen moss ( Chondrus crispus Stackhouse, 1797), and three kelp species ( Laminaria digitata (Hudson) J.V. Lamouroux, 1813; Saccharina latissima (Linnaeus) C.E. Lane, C. Mayes, Druehl et G.W. Saunders, 2006; and Saccharina longicruris (Bachelot de la Pylaie) Kuntze, 1891). We determined species’ thermal limits from the current sea surface temperatures associated with their geographical distributions. Future distributions were based on sea surface temperatures projected for the year ∼2100 by four atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and earth system models for regional concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. Future distributions based on RCP 8.5 indicate that the presence of all but rockweed ( F. vesiculosus) is likely to be threatened by warming waters in the Gulf of St. Lawrence and along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia. Range retractions of macroalgae will have significant ecological and economic effects including impacts on commercial fisheries and harvest rates and losses of floral and faunal biodiversity and production, and should be considered in the designation of marine protected areas.

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