scholarly journals Product-Error-Driven Uncertainty Model for Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Estimation with NEXRAD Data

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 1325-1347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grzegorz J. Ciach ◽  
Witold F. Krajewski ◽  
Gabriele Villarini
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Central Element ◽  
Processing System ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Random Errors ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Uncertainty Model ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Although it is broadly acknowledged that the radar-rainfall (RR) estimates based on the U.S. national network of Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) stations contain a high degree of uncertainty, no methods currently exist to inform users about its quantitative characteristics. The most comprehensive characterization of this uncertainty can be achieved by delivering the products in a probabilistic rather than the traditional deterministic form. The authors are developing a methodology for probabilistic quantitative precipitation estimation (PQPE) based on weather radar data. In this study, they present the central element of this methodology: an empirically based error structure model for the RR products. The authors apply a product-error-driven (PED) approach to obtain a realistic uncertainty model. It is based on the analyses of six years of data from the Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, WSR-88D radar (KTLX) processed with the Precipitation Processing System algorithm of the NEXRAD system. The modeled functional-statistical relationship between RR estimates and corresponding true rainfall consists of two components: a systematic distortion function and a stochastic factor quantifying remaining random errors. The two components are identified using a nonparametric functional estimation apparatus. The true rainfall is approximated with rain gauge data from the Oklahoma Mesonet and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Research Service Micronet networks. The RR uncertainty model presented here accounts for different time scales, synoptic regimes, and distances from the radar. In addition, this study marks the first time in which results on RR error correlation in space and time are presented.

scholarly journals Evaluation and Uncertainty Estimation of NOAA/NSSL Next-Generation National Mosaic Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Product (Q2) over the Continental United States

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1308-1322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sheng Chen ◽  
Jonathan J. Gourley ◽  
Yang Hong ◽  
P. E. Kirstetter ◽  
Jian Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Grid Point ◽  
Stage Iv ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Stage Ii ◽  
Random Errors ◽  
Next Generation ◽  
Central Plains ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Precipitation Estimation

Abstract Quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) products from the next-generation National Mosaic and QPE system (Q2) are cross-compared to the operational, radar-only product of the National Weather Service (Stage II) using the gauge-adjusted and manual quality-controlled product (Stage IV) as a reference. The evaluation takes place over the entire conterminous United States (CONUS) from December 2009 to November 2010. The annual comparison of daily Stage II precipitation to the radar-only Q2Rad product indicates that both have small systematic biases (absolute values > 8%), but the random errors with Stage II are much greater, as noted with a root-mean-squared difference of 4.5 mm day−1 compared to 1.1 mm day−1 with Q2Rad and a lower correlation coefficient (0.20 compared to 0.73). The Q2 logic of identifying precipitation types as being convective, stratiform, or tropical at each grid point and applying differential Z–R equations has been successful in removing regional biases (i.e., overestimated rainfall from Stage II east of the Appalachians) and greatly diminishes seasonal bias patterns that were found with Stage II. Biases and radar artifacts along the coastal mountain and intermountain chains were not mitigated with rain gauge adjustment and thus require new approaches by the community. The evaluation identifies a wet bias by Q2Rad in the central plains and the South and then introduces intermediate products to explain it. Finally, this study provides estimates of uncertainty using the radar quality index product for both Q2Rad and the gauge-corrected Q2RadGC daily precipitation products. This error quantification should be useful to the satellite QPE community who use Q2 products as a reference.

scholarly journals Radar-Based Quantitative Precipitation Estimation for the Identification of Debris-Flow Occurrence over Earthquake affected Region in Sichuan, China

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhao Shi ◽  
Fangqiang Wei ◽  
Chandrasekar Venkatachalam
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Frequentist Method

Abstract. Both of Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008 and Ms7.0 Lushan earth quake on April 20, 2013 occurred in Sichuan Province of China. In the earthquake affected mountainous area, a large amount of loose material caused a high occurrence of debris flow during the rainy season. In order to evaluate the rainfall Intensity–Duration (I-D) threshold of the debris flow in the earthquake-affected area, and for filling up the observational gaps caused by the relatively scarce and low altitude deployment of rain gauges in this area, raw data from two S-band China New Generation Doppler weather radar (CINRAD) were captured for six rainfall events which triggered 519 debris flows between 2012 and 2014. Due to the challenges of radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) over mountainous area, a series of improving measures are considered including the hybrid scan mode, the vertical reflectivity profile (VPR) correction, the mosaic of reflectivity, a merged rainfall-reflectivity(R-Z) relationship for convective and stratiform rainfall and rainfall bias adjustment with Kalman filter (KF). For validating rainfall accumulation over complex terrains, the study areas are divided into two kinds of regions by the height threshold of 1.5 km from the ground. Three kinds of radar rainfall estimates are compared with rain gauge measurements. It is observed that the normalized mean bias (NMB) is decreased by 39 % and the fitted linear ratio between radar and rain gauge observation reaches at 0.98. Furthermore, the radar-based I-D threshold derived by the Frequentist method is I = 10.1D−0.52, and it's also found that the I-D threshold is underestimated by uncorrected raw radar data. In order to verify the impacts on observations due to spatial variation, I-D thresholds are identified from the nearest rain gauge observations and radar observations at the rain gauge locations. It is found that both kinds of observations have similar I-D threshold and likewise underestimate I-D thresholds owing to under shooting at the core of convective rainfall. It is indicated that improvement of spatial resolution and measuring accuracy of radar observation will lead to the improvement of identifying debris flow occurrence, especially for events triggered by the small-scale strong rainfall process in the study area.

scholarly journals Radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation for the identification of debris flow occurrence over earthquake-affected regions in Sichuan, China

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 765-780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhao Shi ◽  
Fangqiang Wei ◽  
Venkatachalam Chandrasekar
Keyword(s):  
Debris Flow ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Mountainous Area ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Improvement Measures ◽  
Frequentist Method

Abstract. Both Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake on 12 May 2008 and Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake on 20 April 2013 occurred in the province of Sichuan, China. In the earthquake-affected mountainous area, a large amount of loose material caused a high occurrence of debris flow during the rainy season. In order to evaluate the rainfall intensity–duration (I–D) threshold of the debris flow in the earthquake-affected area, and to fill up the observational gaps caused by the relatively scarce and low-altitude deployment of rain gauges in this area, raw data from two S-band China New Generation Doppler Weather Radar (CINRAD) were captured for six rainfall events that triggered 519 debris flows between 2012 and 2014. Due to the challenges of radar quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) over mountainous areas, a series of improvement measures are considered: a hybrid scan mode, a vertical reflectivity profile (VPR) correction, a mosaic of reflectivity, a merged rainfall–reflectivity (R − Z) relationship for convective and stratiform rainfall, and rainfall bias adjustment with Kalman filter (KF). For validating rainfall accumulation over complex terrains, the study areas are divided into two kinds of regions by the height threshold of 1.5 km from the ground. Three kinds of radar rainfall estimates are compared with rain gauge measurements. It is observed that the normalized mean bias (NMB) is decreased by 39 % and the fitted linear ratio between radar and rain gauge observation reaches at 0.98. Furthermore, the radar-based I–D threshold derived by the frequentist method is I = 10.1D−0.52 and is underestimated by uncorrected raw radar data. In order to verify the impacts on observations due to spatial variation, I–D thresholds are identified from the nearest rain gauge observations and radar observations at the rain gauge locations. It is found that both kinds of observations have similar I–D thresholds and likewise underestimate I–D thresholds due to undershooting at the core of convective rainfall. It is indicated that improvement of spatial resolution and measuring accuracy of radar observation will lead to the improvement of identifying debris flow occurrence, especially for events triggered by the strong small-scale rainfall process in the study area.

scholarly journals Observed Response of the Raindrop Size Distribution to Changes in the Melting Layer

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Gatlin ◽  
Walter Petersen ◽  
Kevin Knupp ◽  
Lawrence Carey
Keyword(s):  
Size Distribution ◽  
Basic Assumption ◽  
Weighted Mean ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Melting Layer ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Raindrop Size Distribution ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Raindrop Size ◽  
Stratiform Rainfall

Vertical variability in the raindrop size distribution (RSD) can disrupt the basic assumption of a constant rain profile that is customarily parameterized in radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) techniques. This study investigates the utility of melting layer (ML) characteristics to help prescribe the RSD, in particular the mass-weighted mean diameter (Dm), of stratiform rainfall. We utilize ground-based polarimetric radar to map the ML and compare it with Dm observations from the ground upwards to the bottom of the ML. The results show definitive proof that a thickening, and to a lesser extent a lowering, of the ML causes an increase in raindrop diameter below the ML that extends to the surface. The connection between rainfall at the ground and the overlying microphysics in the column provide a means for improving radar QPE at far distances from a ground-based radar or close to the ground where satellite-based radar rainfall retrievals can be ill-defined.

scholarly journals Improved Attenuation-Based Radar Precipitation Estimation Considering the Azimuthal Variabilities of Microphysical Properties

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 1605-1620
Author(s):  
Hao Huang ◽  
Kun Zhao ◽  
Haonan Chen ◽  
Dongming Hu ◽  
Peiling Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Variational Approach ◽  
Optimization Approach ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Microphysical Properties ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Hourly Rainfall ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Raindrop Size ◽  
Differential Reflectivity ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe attenuation-based rainfall estimator is less sensitive to the variability of raindrop size distributions (DSDs) than conventional radar rainfall estimators. For the attenuation-based quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE), the key is to accurately estimate the horizontal specific attenuation AH, which requires a good estimate of the ray-averaged ratio between AH and specific differential phase KDP, also known as the coefficient α. In this study, a variational approach is proposed to optimize the coefficient α for better estimates of AH and rainfall. The performance of the variational approach is illustrated using observations from an S-band operational weather radar with rigorous quality control in south China, by comparing against the α optimization approach using a slope of differential reflectivity ZDR dependence on horizontal reflectivity factor ZH. Similar to the ZDR-slope approach, the variational approach can obtain the optimized α consistent with the DSD properties of precipitation on a sweep-to-sweep basis. The attenuation-based hourly rainfall estimates using the sweep-averaged α values from these two approaches show comparable accuracy when verified against the gauge measurements. One advantage of the variational approach is its feasibility to optimize α for each radar ray, which mitigates the impact of the azimuthal DSD variabilities on rainfall estimation. It is found that, based on the optimized α for radar rays, the hourly rainfall amounts derived from the variational approach are consistent with gauge measurements, showing lower bias (1.0%), higher correlation coefficient (0.92), and lower root-mean-square error (2.35 mm) than the results based on the sweep-averaged α.

scholarly journals Quantitative Precipitation Estimation by Combining Rain gauge and Meteorological Radar Network in Viet Nam

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 36-50
Author(s):  
Chiho Kimpara ◽  
Michihiko Tonouchi ◽  
Bui Thi Khanh Hoa ◽  
Nguyen Viet Hung ◽  
Nguyen Minh Cuong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Viet Nam ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Radar Network ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Meteorological Radar

scholarly journals Impact of the Altitudinal Gradients of Precipitation on the Radar QPE Bias in the French Alps

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominique Faure ◽  
Guy Delrieu ◽  
Nicolas Gaussiat
Keyword(s):  
Ground Level ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Altitudinal Gradients ◽  
French Alps ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Radar Data Processing

In the French Alps the quality of the radar Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) is limited by the topography and the vertical structure of precipitation. A previous study realized in all the French Alps, has shown a general bias between values of the national radar QPE composite and the rain gauge measurements: a radar QPE over-estimation at low altitude (+20% at 200 m a.s.l.), and an increasing underestimation at high altitudes (until −40% at 2100 m a.s.l.). This trend has been linked to altitudinal gradients of precipitation observed at ground level. This paper analyzes relative altitudinal gradients of precipitation estimated with rain gauges measurements in 2016 for three massifs around Grenoble, and for different temporal accumulations (yearly, seasonal, monthly, daily). Comparisons of radar and rain gauge accumulations confirm the bias previously observed. The parts of the current radar data processing affecting the bias value are pointed out. The analysis shows a coherency between the relative gradient values estimated at the different temporal accumulations. Vertical profiles of precipitation detected by a research radar installed at the bottom of the valley also show how the wide horizontal variability of precipitation inside the valley can affect the gradient estimation.

scholarly journals Error Analysis of Satellite Precipitation Products in Mountainous Basins

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 1778-1793 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiwen Mei ◽  
Emmanouil N. Anagnostou ◽  
Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos ◽  
Marco Borga
Keyword(s):  
Error Analysis ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Satellite Precipitation ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Precipitation Regimes ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
High Precipitation

Abstract Accurate quantitative precipitation estimation over mountainous basins is of great importance because of their susceptibility to hazards such as flash floods, shallow landslides, and debris flows, triggered by heavy precipitation events (HPEs). In situ observations over mountainous areas are limited, but currently available satellite precipitation products can potentially provide the precipitation estimation needed for hydrological applications. In this study, four widely used satellite-based precipitation products [Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) 3B42, version 7 (3B42-V7), and in near–real time (3B42-RT); Climate Prediction Center (CPC) morphing technique (CMORPH); and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Imagery Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN)] are evaluated with respect to their performance in capturing the properties of HPEs over different basin scales. Evaluation is carried out over the upper Adige River basin (eastern Italian Alps) for an 8-yr period (2003–10). Basin-averaged rainfall derived from a dense rain gauge network in the region is used as a reference. Satellite precipitation error analysis is performed for warm (May–August) and cold (September–December) season months as well as for different quantile ranges of basin-averaged precipitation accumulations. Three error metrics and a score system are introduced to quantify the performances of the various satellite products. Overall, no single precipitation product can be considered ideal for detecting and quantifying HPE. Results show better consistency between gauges and the two 3B42 products, particularly during warm season months that are associated with high-intensity convective events. All satellite products are shown to have a magnitude-dependent error ranging from overestimation at low precipitation regimes to underestimation at high precipitation accumulations; this effect is more pronounced in the CMORPH and PERSIANN products.

scholarly journals An Improved Dual-Polarization Radar Rainfall Algorithm (DROPS2.0): Application in NASA IFloodS Field Campaign

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 917-937 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haonan Chen ◽  
V. Chandrasekar ◽  
Renzo Bechini
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Coherence ◽  
Dual Polarization ◽  
Radar Rainfall ◽  
Field Campaign ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Precipitation Estimation ◽  
Ground Validation ◽  
Single Polarization ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Self Aggregation

Abstract Compared to traditional single-polarization radar, dual-polarization radar has a number of advantages for quantitative precipitation estimation because more information about the drop size distribution and hydrometeor type can be gleaned. In this paper, an improved dual-polarization rainfall methodology is proposed, which is driven by a region-based hydrometeor classification mechanism. The objective of this study is to incorporate the spatial coherence and self-aggregation of dual-polarization observables in hydrometeor classification and to produce robust rainfall estimates for operational applications. The S-band dual-polarization data collected from the NASA Polarimetric (NPOL) radar during the GPM Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS) ground validation field campaign are used to demonstrate and evaluate the proposed rainfall algorithm. Results show that the improved rainfall method provides better performance than a few single- and dual-polarization algorithms in previous studies. This paper also investigates the impact of radar beam broadening on various rainfall algorithms. It is found that the radar-based rainfall products are less correlated with ground disdrometer measurements as the distance from the radar increases.

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