Multidecadal Climate Variability in Observed and Modeled Surface Temperatures*

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1104-1121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Kravtsov ◽  
Christopher Spannagle
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Temperature Evolution ◽  
Past Century ◽  
The North ◽  
Surface Temperatures

Abstract This study identifies interdecadal natural climate variability in global surface temperatures by subtracting, from the observed temperature evolution, multimodel ensemble mean based on the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel dataset. The resulting signal resembles the so-called Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and is presumably associated with intrinsic dynamics of the oceanic thermohaline circulation (THC). While certain phases of the oscillation are dominated by the anomalies in the North Atlantic region, other phases are characterized by global teleconnections to the North Pacific Ocean, tropical Atlantic Ocean, as well as the Southern Ocean. In particular, natural variability of sea surface temperature in the Atlantic hurricanes’ main development region has a peak-to-peak amplitude comparable in magnitude to this region’s surface temperature increase over the past century, for all seasons. Evidence suggests that the AMO influence on secular trends in the global-mean surface temperature can arise via direct, regional contribution to the surface temperature evolution, as well as via an indirect route linked to variability of the oceanic uptake of CO2 associated with AMO-related THC changes.

scholarly journals Revisiting the trend in the occurrences of the “warm Arctic–cold Eurasian continent” temperature pattern

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (22) ◽  
pp. 13753-13770
Author(s):  
Lejiang Yu ◽  
Shiyuan Zhong ◽  
Cuijuan Sui ◽  
Bo Sun
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Temperature Pattern ◽  
Self Organizing Map ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
The North ◽  
Eurasian Continent ◽  
Increasing Trend

Abstract. The recent increasing trend of “warm Arctic, cold continents” has attracted much attention, but it remains debatable as to what forces are behind this phenomenon. Here, we revisited surface temperature variability over the Arctic and the Eurasian continent by applying the self-organizing-map (SOM) technique to gridded daily surface temperature data. Nearly 40 % of the surface temperature trends are explained by the nine SOM patterns that depict the switch to the current warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern at the beginning of this century from the reversed pattern that dominated the 1980s and 1990s. Further, no cause–effect relationship is found between the Arctic sea ice loss and the cold spells in the high-latitude to midlatitude Eurasian continent suggested by earlier studies. Instead, the increasing trend in warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern appears to be related to the anomalous atmospheric circulations associated with two Rossby wave trains triggered by rising sea surface temperature (SST) over the central North Pacific and the North Atlantic oceans. On interdecadal timescale, the recent increase in the occurrences of the warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern is a fragment of the interdecadal variability of SST over the Atlantic Ocean as represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and over the central Pacific Ocean.

Recent intensified influence of the winter North Pacific sea surface temperature on the withdrawal date of Meiyu

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-53
Author(s):  
Hua Li ◽  
Shengping He ◽  
Ke Fan ◽  
Yong Liu ◽  
Xing Yuan
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Sst Anomalies

AbstractThe Meiyu withdrawal date (MWD) is a crucial indicator of flood/drought conditions over East Asia. It is characterized by a strong interannual variability, but its underlying mechanism remains unknown. We investigated the possible effects of the winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific Ocean on the MWD on interannual to interdecadal timescales. Both our observations and model results suggest that the winter SST anomalies associated with the MWD are mainly contributed by a combination of the first two leading modes of the winter SST in the North Pacific, which have a horseshoe shape (the NPSST). The statistical results indicate that the intimate linkage between the NPSST and the MWD has intensified since the early 1990s. During the time period 1990–2016, the NPSST-related SST anomalies persisted from winter to the following seasons and affected the SST over the tropical Pacific in July. Subsequently, the SST anomalies throughout the North Pacific strengthened the southward migration of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and the southward and westward replacement of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), leading to an increase in Meiyu rainfall from July 1 to 20. More convincingly, the anomalous EAJS and WPSH induced by the SST anomalies can be reproduced well by numerical simulations. By contrast, the influence of the NPSST on the EASJ and WPSH were not clear between 1961 and 1985. This study further illustrates that the enhanced interannual variability of the NPSST may be attributed to the more persistent SST anomalies during the time period 1990–2016.

Cuban stalagmite suggests relationship between Caribbean precipitation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation during the past 1.3 ka

The Holocene ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 22 (12) ◽  
pp. 1405-1412 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia Fensterer ◽  
Denis Scholz ◽  
Dirk Hoffmann ◽  
Christoph Spötl ◽  
Jesús M Pajón ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
Southward Shift ◽  
The North Atlantic

Here we present the first high-resolution δ18O record of a stalagmite from western Cuba. The record reflects precipitation variability in the northwestern Caribbean during the last 1.3 ka and exhibits a correlation to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This suggests a relationship between Caribbean rainfall intensity and North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies. A potential mechanism for this relationship may be the strength of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC). For a weaker THC, lower SSTs in the North Atlantic possibly lead to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and drier conditions in Cuba. Thus, this Cuban stalagmite records drier conditions during cold phases in the North Atlantic such as the ‘Little Ice Age’. This study contributes to the understanding of teleconnections between North Atlantic SSTs and northern Caribbean climate variability during the past 1.3 ka.

Tropical Pacific and Atlantic Climate Variability in CCSM3

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (11) ◽  
pp. 2451-2481 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Deser ◽  
Antonietta Capotondi ◽  
R. Saravanan ◽  
Adam S. Phillips
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Tropical Atlantic

Abstract Simulations of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and tropical Atlantic climate variability in the newest version of the Community Climate System Model [version 3 (CCSM3)] are examined in comparison with observations and previous versions of the model. The analyses are based upon multicentury control integrations of CCSM3 at two different horizontal resolutions (T42 and T85) under present-day CO2 concentrations. Complementary uncoupled integrations with the atmosphere and ocean component models forced by observed time-varying boundary conditions allow an assessment of the impact of air–sea coupling upon the simulated characteristics of ENSO and tropical Atlantic variability. The amplitude and zonal extent of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature variability associated with ENSO is well simulated in CCSM3 at both resolutions and represents an improvement relative to previous versions of the model. However, the period of ENSO remains too short (2–2.5 yr in CCSM3 compared to 2.5–8 yr in observations), and the sea surface temperature, wind stress, precipitation, and thermocline depth responses are too narrowly confined about the equator. The latter shortcoming is partially overcome in the atmosphere-only and ocean-only simulations, indicating that coupling between the two model components is a contributing cause. The relationships among sea surface temperature, thermocline depth, and zonal wind stress anomalies are consistent with the delayed/recharge oscillator paradigms for ENSO. We speculate that the overly narrow meridional scale of CCSM3's ENSO simulation may contribute to its excessively high frequency. The amplitude and spatial pattern of the extratropical atmospheric circulation response to ENSO is generally well simulated in the T85 version of CCSM3, with realistic impacts upon surface air temperature and precipitation; the simulation is not as good at T42. CCSM3's simulation of interannual climate variability in the tropical Atlantic sector, including variability intrinsic to the basin and that associated with the remote influence of ENSO, exhibits similarities and differences with observations. Specifically, the observed counterpart of El Niño in the equatorial Atlantic is absent from the coupled model at both horizontal resolutions (as it was in earlier versions of the coupled model), but there are realistic (although weaker than observed) SST anomalies in the northern and southern tropical Atlantic that affect the position of the local intertropical convergence zone, and the remote influence of ENSO is similar in strength to observations, although the spatial pattern is somewhat different.

scholarly journals Climate feedbacks induced by the North Atlantic freshwater forcing in a coupled model of intermediate complexity

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flávio Barbosa Justino ◽  
Jeferson Prietsch Machado
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Poleward Heat Transport ◽  
Freshwater Forcing ◽  
Oceanic Response ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Tropics

Based on coupled model simulations (ECBilt-Clio), we investigate the atmospheric and oceanic response to sustained freshwater input into the North Atlantic under the glacial maximum background state. The results demonstrate that a weakening of the thermohaline circulation triggered by weaker density flux leads to rapid changes in global sea-ice volume and reduced poleward heat transport in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), however, the oceanic heat transport increases substantially. This in turn leads to strong cooling over the North Atlantic whereas the SH extratropical region warms up. The suppression of the NADW also drastically changes the atmospheric circulation. The associated northward wind anomalies over the North Atlantic increase the warm air advection from the tropics and induce the transport of tropical saltier water to mid-latitudes. This negative atmospheric-oceanic feedback should play an important role to resume the NADW, after the freshwater forcing ends up.

scholarly journals A Hemispheric Mechanism for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (11) ◽  
pp. 2706-2719 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mihai Dima ◽  
Gerrit Lohmann
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
The North ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The North Pacific

Abstract The physical processes associated with the ∼70-yr period climate mode, known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), are examined. Based on analyses of observational data, a deterministic mechanism relying on atmosphere–ocean–sea ice interactions is proposed for the AMO. Variations in the thermohaline circulation are reflected as uniform sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic. These anomalies are associated with a hemispheric wavenumber-1 sea level pressure (SLP) structure in the atmosphere that is amplified through atmosphere–ocean interactions in the North Pacific. The SLP pattern and its associated wind field affect the sea ice export through Fram Strait, the freshwater balance in the northern North Atlantic, and consequently the strength of the large-scale ocean circulation. It generates sea surface temperature anomalies with opposite signs in the North Atlantic and completes a negative feedback. The authors find that the time scale of the cycle is associated with the thermohaline circulation adjustment to freshwater forcing, the SST response to it, the oceanic adjustment in the North Pacific, and the sea ice response to the wind forcing. Finally, it is argued that the Great Salinity Anomaly in the late 1960s and 1970s is part of AMO.

scholarly journals Ethiopian Highlands Crop-Climate Prediction: 1979–2009

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (5) ◽  
pp. 1116-1126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark R Jury
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Zonal Wind ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Time Correlation ◽  
Air Pressure ◽  
Ethiopian Highlands ◽  
The North

AbstractThis study compares different methods of predicting crop-related climate in the Ethiopian highlands for the period 1979–2009. A target index (ETH4) is developed as an average of four variables in the June–September season—rainfall, rainfall minus evaporation, estimated latent heat flux, and vegetation, following correlation with crop yields at Melkassa, Ethiopia (8.4°N, 39.3°E, 1550 m elevation). Predictors are drawn from gridded near-global fields of surface temperature, surface air pressure, and 200-hPa zonal wind in the preceding December–March season. Prediction algorithms are formulated by stepwise multivariate regression. The first set of predictors derive from objective principal component (PC) time scores with tropical loading patterns, and the second set is based on key areas determined from correlation with the target index. The second PC of upper zonal wind reveals a tropical–subtropical dipole that is correlated with ETH4 at two-season lead time (correlation coefficient r = −0.53). Point-to-field regression maps show high-latitude signals in surface temperature (positive in North America and negative in Eurasia) and air pressure (negative in the North Pacific Ocean and positive in the South Pacific). Upper zonal winds are most strongly related with ETH4 over the tropical Pacific and Africa at two-season lead time. The multivariate algorithm that is based on PC predictors has an adjusted r2 fit of 0.23, and the algorithm using key-area predictors achieves r2 = 0.37. In comparison, numerical model forecasts reach r2 = 0.33 for ECMWF simulations but are low for other models. The statistical results are specific to the ETH4 index, which is a climate proxy for crop yields in the Ethiopian highlands.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document