Expert elicitation of model parameters for the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment: Summary of workshop, methodology and outcomes.

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Griffin ◽  
M. Gerstenberger ◽  
T. Allen ◽  
D. Clark ◽  
R. Cuthbertson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Model Parameters

scholarly journals Planar Seismic Source Characterization Models Developed for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Istanbul

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeynep Gülerce ◽  
Kadir Buğra Soyman ◽  
Barış Güner ◽  
Nuretdin Kaymakci
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Source Characterization ◽  
Seismicity Rates

Abstract. This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, Central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g. b-value, maximum magnitude, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully-documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

scholarly journals Planar seismic source characterization models developed for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Istanbul

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (12) ◽  
pp. 2365-2381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeynep Gülerce ◽  
Kadir Buğra Soyman ◽  
Barış Güner ◽  
Nuretdin Kaymakci
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Source ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Maximum Magnitude ◽  
Source Characterization ◽  
Seismicity Rates

Abstract. This contribution provides an updated planar seismic source characterization (SSC) model to be used in the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for Istanbul. It defines planar rupture systems for the four main segments of the North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) that are critical for the PSHA of Istanbul: segments covering the rupture zones of the 1999 Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes, central Marmara, and Ganos/Saros segments. In each rupture system, the source geometry is defined in terms of fault length, fault width, fault plane attitude, and segmentation points. Activity rates and the magnitude recurrence models for each rupture system are established by considering geological and geodetic constraints and are tested based on the observed seismicity that is associated with the rupture system. Uncertainty in the SSC model parameters (e.g., b value, maximum magnitude, slip rate, weights of the rupture scenarios) is considered, whereas the uncertainty in the fault geometry is not included in the logic tree. To acknowledge the effect of earthquakes that are not associated with the defined rupture systems on the hazard, a background zone is introduced and the seismicity rates in the background zone are calculated using smoothed-seismicity approach. The state-of-the-art SSC model presented here is the first fully documented and ready-to-use fault-based SSC model developed for the PSHA of Istanbul.

Seismic Hazard Assessment in Australia: Can Structured Expert Elicitation Achieve Consensus in the “Land of the Fair Go”?

2020 ◽  
Vol 91 (2A) ◽  
pp. 859-873 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan D. Griffin ◽  
Trevor I. Allen ◽  
Matthew C. Gerstenberger
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Building Design ◽  
Expert Elicitation ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Logic Tree ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
Seismic Source Models

Abstract The 2018 National Seismic Hazard Assessment of Australia incorporated 19 alternative seismic-source models developed by members of the Australian seismological community. The diversity of these models demonstrates the deep epistemic uncertainty that exists with regards to how best to characterize seismicity in stable continental regions. In the face of similarly high uncertainty, a diverse range of ground-motion models was proposed for use. A complex logic tree was developed to incorporate the alternative component models into a single hazard model. Expert opinion was drawn upon to weight the alternative logic-tree branches through a structured expert elicitation process. Expert elicitation aims to transparently and reproducibly characterize the community distribution of expert estimates for uncertain quantities and thereby quantify the epistemic uncertainty around estimates of seismic hazard in Australia. We achieve a multimodel rational consensus in which each model, and each expert, is, in accordance with the Australian cultural myth of egalitarianism, given a “fair go”—that is, judged on their merits rather than their status. Yet despite this process, we find that the results are not universally accepted. A key issue is a contested boundary between what is scientifically reducible and what remains epistemologically uncertain, with a particular focus on the earthquake catalog. Furthermore, a reduction, on average, of 72% for the 10% in 50 yr probability of exceedance peak ground acceleration levels compared with those underpinning existing building design standards, challenges the choice of metrics upon which design codes are based. Both quantification of the bounds of epistemic uncertainties through expert elicitation and reduction of epistemic uncertainties through scientific advances have changed our understanding of how the hazard behaves. Dialog between scientists, engineers, and policy makers is required to ensure that as our understanding of the hazard evolves, the hazard metrics used to underpin risk management decisions are re-evaluated to ensure societal aims are achieved.

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the main cities along the continental section of the Cameroon volcanic line

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Etoundi Delair Dieudonné Ndibi ◽  
Eddy Ferdinand Mbossi ◽  
Nguet Pauline Wokwenmendam ◽  
Bekoa Ateba ◽  
Théophile Ndougsa-Mbarga
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Cameroon Volcanic Line

Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Assessment in Quito, Estimates and Uncertainties

2014 ◽  
Vol 85 (6) ◽  
pp. 1316-1327 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Beauval ◽  
H. Yepes ◽  
L. Audin ◽  
A. Alvarado ◽  
J.-M. Nocquet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Seismic hazard assessment using intensity point data

1994 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 219-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Monachesi ◽  
L. Peruzza ◽  
D. Slejko ◽  
M. Stucchi
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Point Data

scholarly journals Preliminary Seismic Hazard Assessment of the Oral and Dental Hospital of Jenderal Soedirman University Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 171 ◽  
pp. 1025-1034 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanuar Haryanto ◽  
Gathot Heri Sudibyo ◽  
Fransisca Cynthia Angelina Effendi
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Assessment ◽  
Seismic Hazard Assessment ◽  
Dental Hospital
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document