CIA, Intelligence Estimate, Implications of the Military Balance of Power in Lebanon, December 23, 1983, Secret, CREST.

1972 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 3-16
Author(s):  
George Hishmeh ◽  
Robert J. Pranger ◽  
Alvin J. Cottrell ◽  
Donald C. Griffin

1961 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Osgood

Ever since President Eisenhower broached the “open skies” proposal in 1955, American “disarmament” policy has given prior emphasis—apart from diplomatic and propagandistic purposes—to the objective of stabilizing the military balance of power, as distinguished from the traditional objective of abolishing or reducing the arms that sustain that balance. So Secretary of State Herter on February 18, 1960, described the first goal of America's disarmament policy as creating “a more stable military environment” by reducing the risk of war resulting from a surprise attack launched by miscalculation or from the promiscuous spread of nuclear weapons production. And so on May 25 President Eisenhower took the occasion of the U-2 incident to reiterate the urgent need for an international agreement providing mutual assurance against surprise attack; and on September 22, in an address to the U.N. General Assembly, proposed a United Nations surveillance body to permit nations to prove to each other that they are not preparing to launch a surprise attack.If stability is the objective, then arms control policy is clearly the logical complement rather than the antithesis of defense policy. Yet in the absence of an overall strategy of stability, linking arms control with military strategy, the two may work against each other. Thus in the context of recent developments in missile technology, stabilizing the military environment requires the American government to make a basic decision, not only about arms control, but about the whole strategy of deterrence, lest its concern for providing mutual assurance against surprise attack conflict with its reliance upon a nuclear response to discourage a wide range of aggressions.


2010 ◽  
Vol 109 (731) ◽  
pp. 370-375
Author(s):  
Bruce Riedel

Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapons capability … will be destabilizing and unsettling. But it will not transform the fundamental nature of the military balance of power in the region.


1972 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 3-16
Author(s):  
George Hishmeh ◽  
Robert J. Pranger ◽  
Alvin J. Cottrell ◽  
Donald C. Griffin

2008 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 148-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norrin M. Ripsman ◽  
Jack S. Levy

Scholars typically define appeasement as a policy of satisfying grievances through one-sided concessions to avoid war for the foreseeable future and, therefore, as an alternative to balancing. They traditionally interpret British appeasement of Adolf Hitler in the 1930s as a naïve attempt to maintain peace with Germany by satisfying his grievances. The standard conceptualization of appeasement and the empirical treatment of the 1930s, however, are theoretically limiting and historically incorrect. Appeasement is a strategy of sustained, asymmetrical concessions with the aim of avoiding war, at least in the short term. There are three distinct variations of appeasement: (1) resolving grievances (to avoid war for the foreseeable future); (2) diffusing secondary threats (to focus on a greater threat); and (3) buying time (to rearm and/or secure allies against the current threat). British appeasement was primarily a strategy of buying time for rearmament against Germany. British leaders understood the Nazi menace and did not expect that appeasement would avoid an eventual war with Germany. They believed that by the time of the Rhineland crisis of 1936 the balance of power had already shifted in Germany's favor, but that British rearmament would work to reverse the balance by the end of the decade. Appeasement was a strategy to delay an expected confrontation with Germany until the military balance was more favorable.


Survival ◽  
1979 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 57-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward N. Luttwak

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