Partisan Bias, Economic Expectations, and Household Spending

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-46
Author(s):  
Atif Mian ◽  
Amir Sufi ◽  
Nasim Khoshkhou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Political Polarization ◽  
Large Shift ◽  
Partisan Bias ◽  
White House ◽  
Household Spending ◽  
The Past ◽  
Economic Expectations ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Over Time

Abstract The well-documented rise in political polarization among the U.S. electorate over the past 20 years has been accompanied by a substantial increase in the effect of partisan bias on survey-based measures of economic expectations. Individuals have a more optimistic view on future economic conditions when they are more closely affiliated with the party that controls the White House, and this tendency has increased significantly over time. Individuals report a large shift in economic expectations based on partisan affiliation after the 2008 and 2016 elections, but administrative data on spending shows no effect of these shifts on actual household spending.

Can Information Decrease Political Polarization? Evidence From the U.S. Taxpayer Receipt

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 736-745 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erik P. Duhaime ◽  
Evan P. Apfelbaum
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Polarization ◽  
White House ◽  
Contentious Issue ◽  
Baseline Levels ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
High Level ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Do So

Scholars, politicians, and laypeople alike bemoan the high level of political polarization in the United States, but little is known about how to bring the views of liberals and conservatives closer together. Previous research finds that providing people with information regarding a contentious issue is ineffective for reducing polarization because people process such information in a biased manner. Here, we show that information can reduce political polarization below baseline levels and also that its capacity to do so is sensitive to contextual factors that make one’s relevant preferences salient. Specifically, in a nationally representative sample (Study 1) and a preregistered replication (Study 2), we find that providing a taxpayer receipt—an impartial, objective breakdown of how one’s taxes are spent that is published annually by the White House—reduces polarization regarding taxes, but not when participants are also asked to indicate how they would prefer their taxes be spent.

scholarly journals Green Construction: Contractor Motivation and Trends in Austin, Texas

2006 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 118-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrey Tinker ◽  
Urs Kreuter ◽  
Richard Burt ◽  
Sherry Bame
Keyword(s):  
Public Education ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Residential Construction ◽  
Sustainable Communities ◽  
The Past ◽  
Construction Contractor ◽  
Study Population ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Over Time

The purpose of this paper is to describe and assess one of the first comprehensive residential green-builder programs in the U.S. It compares trends of items used in residential construction during the past five years and reports why participating builders chose to incorporate specific items and their level of commitment to the program. This description provides a baseline of strategies to investigate the effect of this program in developing sustainable communities. The builder study population was derived from a database of registered “green” residences built during 1998-2002 in greater Austin, Texas (2,335 homes and 73 listed builders). Almost half the builders constructed just one “green” home, whereas two builders built almost 75% of the green homes during the 5-year study period. Less than 1% of the homes received a perfect 5-star rating, whereas 87% were rated 1 or 2 stars. The frequency of implementing the 122 green features were compared over time and analyzed for correlation with cost and their associated star-value. Cost was the primary factor determining item use frequency. Participating builders generally concurred that the program was successful and beneficial to homeowners but that the additional work required for participation provided little financial reward for builders. While much can be done with low-cost interventions to reduce the negative environmental impacts of residential construction, builder participation may be enhanced by promotion of some of the higher cost features. In addition, public education about the long-term benefits of green homes is needed to increase homeowner participation, and encourage builders to incorporate more environmentally friendly features in the homes they construct.

Analyst Forecast Bundling

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (9) ◽  
pp. 4024-4046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Drake ◽  
Peter Joos ◽  
Joseph Pacelli ◽  
Brady Twedt
Keyword(s):  
Cost Saving ◽  
Earnings Forecasts ◽  
Research Process ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Analyst Forecast ◽  
The Past ◽  
Field Evidence ◽  
Tiered Services ◽  
Saving Measure ◽  
Over Time

Changing economic conditions over the past two decades have created incentives for sell-side analysts to both provide their institutional clients tiered services and to streamline their written research process. One manifestation of these changes is an increased likelihood of analysts’ issuing earnings forecasts for multiple firms on the same day. We identify this bundling property and show that bundling has increased steadily over time. We provide field evidence that the practice is a cost-saving measure, a natural by-product of analysts focusing on thematic research, and a reflection of forecast updating that occurs in advance of important events. Our empirical analyses show that bundled forecasts are less accurate, less bold, and less informative to investors than nonbundled forecasts. We also find that analysts who produce bundled forecasts provide valuable specialized services to their institutional clients. Our findings ultimately demonstrate that forecast bundling has important implications for the properties of analysts’ forecasts. This paper was accepted by Shiva Rajgopal, accounting.

scholarly journals Troll and Divide: The Language of Online Polarization

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Almog Simchon ◽  
William J. Brady ◽  
Jay Joseph Van Bavel
Keyword(s):  
Political Polarization ◽  
Intergroup Conflict ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Partisan Bias ◽  
Online Networks ◽  
Control Dataset ◽  
Simple Tool ◽  
Political Left ◽  
Left And Right ◽  
Over Time

Political polarization, or the ideological distance between the political left and right, has grown steadily in recent decades. There is a rising concern over the role that ‘bad actors’ or trolls may play in polarization in online networks. In this research, we examine the processes by which trolls may sow intergroup conflict through polarizing rhetoric. We developed a dictionary to gauge online polarization by measuring language associated with communications that display partisan bias in their diffusion. We validated the polarized language dictionary in three different contexts and across multiple time periods. We found the polarization dictionary made out-of-set predictions, generalized to new political contexts (#BlackLivesMatter), and predicted partisan differences in public polls about COVID-19. Then we analyzed 383,510 tweets from a known Russian troll source (the Internet Research Agency) and found that their use of polarized language has increased over time. We also compared troll tweets from 3 different countries (N = 798,33) and found that they all utilize more polarized language on average than a control dataset of tweets from regular Americans (N = 1,507,300) and trolls have dramatically increased their use of polarized rhetoric over time. These results illustrate how trolls leverage polarized language. We also provide an open-source, simple tool for exploration of polarized communications on social media.

Mortgage Foreclosures and Older Americans

2020 ◽  
pp. 106-115
Author(s):  
Lori A. Trawinski
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Mortgage Market ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Mortgage Loans ◽  
Older Americans ◽  
Mortgage Debt ◽  
Home Prices ◽  
The Past ◽  
Mortgage Foreclosures ◽  
Over Time

Economic conditions improved since the 2008–09 mortgage market crisis, and home prices recovered in many areas. Nevertheless, over time, growing numbers of older households have taken on greater mortgage debt than in the past. These families are also carrying mortgage loans into retirement, far more than they did in the past. Foreclosure rates for all loans have decreased to pre-recession levels for borrowers under age 50, while for borrowers age 50+, foreclosure rates in 2017 were higher than in 2007. This means that many older homeowners may face the loss of their homes, despite the fact that the economy improved after the financial crisis.

Tracking Ignorance: Examining Changes in Immigrant Population Innumeracy in the United States from 2005 to 2013

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 329-339
Author(s):  
Daniel Herda
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
The United States ◽  
Immigrant Population ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Past ◽  
Immigrant Populations ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Over Time

Citizens’ tendency to overestimate the size of immigrant populations has been the subject of several studies over the past three decades. While we have learned a great deal about the extent, causes, and potential consequences of this population innumeracy, our understanding remains static. The current letter offers the first longitudinal consideration of immigrant population size misperceptions with an analysis across a nine-year span in the U.S. This study considers: 1) whether misperceptions have changed over time; 2) how these changes compare to the growth of the actual foreign-born population size; and 3) whether these changes are related to demographic and ideological factors. Results indicate that misperceptions have grown rapidly in the U.S, far outpacing the modest, actual increases across the period. Pooled cross-sectional analyses indicate that demographic factors do not explain the growth in misperceptions. However, the overestimates of politically conservative Americans have grown increasingly extreme over time.

scholarly journals Tales of tricks and greed and big surprises: Laymen's views of the law in Dutch oral narrative

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Theo Meder
Keyword(s):  
Middle Ages ◽  
News Media ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Oral Narrative ◽  
Remarkable Difference ◽  
Vast Number ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Common ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Over Time

AbstractNeither in Dutch nor in European narrative folklore does the lawyer have a positive reputation. It does not matter whether we look at the past or the present: in folktales the practice of lawyers is associated with greed, trickery and heartlessness. In the Middle Ages, when the profession was literally for sale, judges were accused of corruption and incompetence, but their reputation improved over time when they became well-educated and impartial professionals. In present and past, the common man looks upon justice as incomprehensible and unpredictable. European and American folktales (especially jokes) about law and lawyers basically share the same themes, but there is a remarkable difference in quantity nowadays. Whereas lawyer jokes are hype in the U.S., they are not in the Netherlands or Western Europe. The main reason seems to be the American “vulture culture” of suing, claiming, and cashing, as exposed in the news media. If Dutch and European lawyers take over the mores of their American colleagues, it will just be a matter of time before a vast number of lawyer jokes are transferred and translated.

Introduction

2019 ◽  
pp. 7-30
Author(s):  
Lisa Blee ◽  
Jean M. O’Brien
Keyword(s):  
Public Art ◽  
Historical Memory ◽  
Native Peoples ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Past ◽  
The World ◽  
History Of ◽  
Popular Interest ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Over Time

This chapter explains the connection between monuments and the stories about the past they convey to viewers over time. While monuments are considered static and place-bound, this statue of the Massasoit became mobile in numerous ways: in stories that travel with the viewer; as small replicas carried away as souvenirs or purchased as art across the country and the world; and in full-sized casts installed in diverse public settings in the Midwest and West. This chapter argues that the fact that the statue represents a Native leader with a connection to the story of the first Thanksgiving makes its mobility uniquely revealing of the fraught historical memory of colonialism in the U.S. This chapter introduces the argument that Wampanoag and other Native peoples have long resisted, challenged, and refigured the popular celebratory story of peaceful colonization often attached to the figure of the Massasoit. This chapter also introduces the history of the Thanksgiving myth, recounts Wampanoag and English settler relations, explains the popular interest in Indian statuary, and provides background on the public art movement that lead to the commission of the Massasoit statue.

scholarly journals How Empathic Concern Fuels Political Polarization

2019 ◽  
Vol 114 (1) ◽  
pp. 258-269 ◽  
Author(s):  
ELIZABETH N. SIMAS ◽  
SCOTT CLIFFORD ◽  
JUSTIN H. KIRKLAND
Keyword(s):  
National Sample ◽  
Empathic Concern ◽  
Political Polarization ◽  
Partisan Bias ◽  
Partisan Polarization ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Events ◽  
Social Polarization ◽  
Partisan Conflict ◽  
Dispositional Empathy

Over the past two decades, there has been a marked increase in partisan social polarization, leaving scholars in search of solutions to partisan conflict. The psychology of intergroup relations identifies empathy as one of the key mechanisms that reduces intergroup conflict, and some have suggested that a lack of empathy has contributed to partisan polarization. Yet, empathy may not always live up to this promise. We argue that, in practice, the experience of empathy is biased toward one’s ingroup and can actually exacerbate political polarization. First, using a large, national sample, we demonstrate that higher levels of dispositional empathic concern are associated with higher levels of affective polarization. Second, using an experimental design, we show that individuals high in empathic concern show greater partisan bias in evaluating contentious political events. Taken together, our results suggest that, contrary to popular views, higher levels of dispositional empathy actually facilitate partisan polarization.

scholarly journals The Widening Gender Gap in Opposition to Pornography, 1975-2012

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucia C. Lykke ◽  
Philip N. Cohen
Keyword(s):  
Gender Gap ◽  
General Social Survey ◽  
Legal Issues ◽  
Cultural Shift ◽  
Social Survey ◽  
The Past ◽  
Pornography Consumption ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Over Time

In the last several decades pornography in the U.S. has become more mainstream, more accessible, more phallocentric and more degrading to women. Further, consumption of pornography remains a major difference in the sexual experiences of men and women. Yet research has not addressed how opposition to pornography has changed over the this period, despite shifts in the accessibility and visibility of pornography as well as new cultural and legal issues presented by the advent of Internet pornography. We examine gender differences in opposition to pornography from 1975 to 2012, measured by support for legal censorship of pornography in the General Social Survey. Results show that both men’s and women’s opposition to pornography have decreased significantly over the past 40 years, suggesting a cultural shift toward “pornographication” affecting attitudes. However, women remain more opposed to pornography than men, and men’s opposition has declined faster, so the gender gap in opposition to pornography has widened, indicating further divergence of men’s and women’s sexualattitudes over time. This is consistent with the increasingly normative nature of pornography consumption for men, increases over time in men’s actual consumption of pornography, and its increasingly degrading depictionof women.

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