Epidemic Shocks and Civil Violence: Evidence from Malaria Outbreaks in Africa

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-46
Author(s):  
Matteo Cervellati ◽  
Elena Esposito ◽  
Uwe Sunde
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Acute Phase ◽  
Systematic Investigation ◽  
Civil Violence

Abstract This paper presents the first systematic investigation of the effect of epidemic shocks on civil violence. The identification exploits exogenous within cell×year variation in conditions that are suitable for malaria transmission using a panel database with month-by-month variation at a resolution of 1° × 1° latitude/longitude for Africa. Suitable conditions increase civil violence in areas with populations susceptible to epidemic outbreaks. The effect is immediate, related to the acute phase of the epidemic, and largest during short harvesting seasons of subsistence crops. Genetic immunities and anti-malaria policies attenuate the effect. The results deliver new insights for prevention and attenuation policies and for potential consequences of climate change.

scholarly journals Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alizée Chemison ◽  
Gilles Ramstein ◽  
Adrian M. Tompkins ◽  
Dimitri Defrance ◽  
Guigone Camus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Transmission Risk ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Change Risk ◽  
System A ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
The Impact

AbstractStudies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments.

scholarly journals Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1s) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Leedale ◽  
Adrian M. Tompkins ◽  
Cyril Caminade ◽  
Anne E. Jones ◽  
Grigory Nikulin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Model Ensemble ◽  
East African Community ◽  
Recent Climate

The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach.

Climate Change

2017 ◽  
pp. 162-187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaikh Mohammad Kais
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Systems ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Systematic Investigation ◽  
Shrimp Farming ◽  
Farming Communities ◽  
The World ◽  
Climate Vulnerability ◽  
Key Features

Global aquaculture is one of the key features of present global agro-food systems. Though aquaculture is one of the fastest growing industries in the world, its growth trajectory is confronted with various challenges including climate disruptions. Since both aquaculture and climate change have regional variations, their interconnections are very complex and require systematic investigation. In various regions of the world, especially in the Global South, aquaculture countries are assessing those interconnections and devising resilience-enhancing programs for the development of the sector. Thorough investigations are required for a comprehensive understanding of the complex interconnections between climate vulnerability and resilience of global aquaculture. Drawing on primary and secondary data from the Bangladesh shrimp sector, and using conceptual lenses of global climate change and resilience, this chapter critically examines how the industrial shrimp aquaculture in Bangladesh is affected by climate disruptions and how the shrimp farming communities address these challenges.

Climate Change

2019 ◽  
pp. 152-177
Author(s):  
Shaikh Mohammad Kais
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Systems ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Systematic Investigation ◽  
Shrimp Farming ◽  
Farming Communities ◽  
The World ◽  
Climate Vulnerability ◽  
Key Features

Global aquaculture is one of the key features of present global agro-food systems. Though aquaculture is one of the fastest growing industries in the world, its growth trajectory is confronted with various challenges including climate disruptions. Since both aquaculture and climate change have regional variations, their interconnections are very complex and require systematic investigation. In various regions of the world, especially in the Global South, aquaculture countries are assessing those interconnections and devising resilience-enhancing programs for the development of the sector. Thorough investigations are required for a comprehensive understanding of the complex interconnections between climate vulnerability and resilience of global aquaculture. Drawing on primary and secondary data from the Bangladesh shrimp sector, and using conceptual lenses of global climate change and resilience, this chapter critically examines how the industrial shrimp aquaculture in Bangladesh is affected by climate disruptions and how the shrimp farming communities address these challenges.

Potential effect of climate change on malaria transmission in Africa

The Lancet ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 362 (9398) ◽  
pp. 1792-1798 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank C Tanser ◽  
Brian Sharp ◽  
David le Sueur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Malaria Transmission ◽  
Potential Effect

Climate change and malaria transmission

1996 ◽  
Vol 90 (5) ◽  
pp. 573-588 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. W. Lindsay ◽  
M. H. Birley
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Malaria Transmission
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