Exchange Rate Reconnect

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-28
Author(s):  
Andrew Lilley ◽  
Matteo Maggiori ◽  
Brent Neiman ◽  
Jesse Schreger
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Foreign Bonds ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

It is surprisingly difficult to find economic variables that strongly co-move with exchange rates, a phenomenon codified in a large literature on “exchange rate disconnect.” We demonstrate that a variety of common proxies for global risk appetite, which did not co-move with exchange rates prior to 2007, have provided significant in-sample explanatory power for currencies since then. Furthermore, during 2007-2012, U.S. purchases of foreign bonds were highly correlated with these risk measures and with exchange rates. Our results support the narrative that the US dollar's role as an international and safe-haven currency has surged since the global financial crisis.

scholarly journals The Impact of Russia’s Oil-Dominated Energy Economic Changes on the Exchange Rate of Russian Ruble – Chinese Renminbi

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 173
Author(s):  
Maoguo Wu ◽  
Yue Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Close Relation ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Pillar Industry ◽  
The Impact

Russia’s economic development has a close relation with China, due to geographical and historical reasons. This paper investigates whether the ruble – renminbi exchange rate changes accordingly when the pillar industry of Russia is drastically changing, and how the exchange rate changes and how it affects Russia’s economic development. In this paper, data of 7 variables spanning 122 months are selected based on related literature and availability of data. Regression analysis and empirical tests are carried out consequently. The results show that the energy price index represented by oil prices is negatively correlated with the exchange rate, and the explanatory power is as high as 41.1%. Following basic arbitrage methods and strategies, this paper verifies the feasibility of using arbitrage by comparing actual exchange rates with forecasted exchange rates. According to empirical results, problems witnessed in the process of ruble internationalization provides policy implications for China. China’s economy is utilized as an example to discuss the shortcomings of Russia’s economy. Related solutions are proposed.

scholarly journals Cointegration of Stock Market and Exchange Rate in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 125 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pribawa E Pantas ◽  
Muhamad Nafik Hadi Ryandono ◽  
Misbahul Munir ◽  
Rofiul Wahyudi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This study aims to determine the long-term relationship between stock market and exchange rate in Indonesia. The research method used is Johansen cointegration test. The results of this study found no cointegration between the variables tested. Thus the exchange rate, JII, and IHSG have no relationship in the long term. The fluctuation of the rupiah exchange rate in recent years did not generally affect the performance of stock indices especially after the global financial crisis of 2008. This shows the capital market in Indonesia has a good performance so that it is not so sensitive to the sentiment of the decline in the rupiah against the US dollar. This finding is in line with the findings of Syahrer (2010) which states the exchange rate has no effect on the stock market.

ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES ON THE TRADE BALANCE: DOES GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS MATTER?

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (04) ◽  
pp. 1850015 ◽  
Author(s):  
BISHARAT HUSSAIN CHANG ◽  
SURESH KUMAR OAD RAJPUT ◽  
NIAZ HUSSAIN GHUMRO
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Recent studies have been mainly focusing on whether exchange rate changes have a symmetric or asymmetric effect on the trade balance. We revisit this question in the context of US and further extend previous studies by determining whether the relationship between these underlying variables change as a result of the global financial crisis. We use both linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and non-linear ARDL models for the whole sample period as well as in the pre- and post-crisis periods. Findings suggest that exchange rate changes have an asymmetric effect on the trade balance; however, the asymmetric behavior of the underlying variables change as a result of the financial crisis. In the short run, exchange rate asymmetrically affects trade balance in the post-crisis period only. In the long run, there is an asymmetric effect for all sample periods, where only the devaluation of currency significantly affects the trade balance when the whole sample period is selected. On the other hand, in pre- and post-crisis periods, only appreciation of currency significantly affects the trade balance. This study indicates that determining the asymmetric relationship without considering the global financial crisis may lead to spurious results.

scholarly journals Splitting Credit Risk into Systemic, Sectorial and Idiosyncratic Components

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Alfonso Novales ◽  
Alvaro Chamizo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Credit Default Swap ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
The North ◽  
Credit Default ◽  
Highly Correlated

We provide a methodology to estimate a global credit risk factor from credit default swap (CDS) spreads that can be very useful for risk management. The global risk factor (GRF) reproduces quite well the different episodes that have affected the credit market over the sample period. It is highly correlated with standard credit indices, but it contains much higher explanatory power for fluctuations in CDS spreads across sectors than the credit indices themselves. The additional information content over iTraxx seems to be related to some financial interest rates. We first use the estimated GRF to analyze the extent to which the eleven sectors we consider are systemic. After that, we use it to split the credit risk of individual firms into systemic, sectorial, and idiosyncratic components, and we perform some analyses to test that the estimated idiosyncratic components are actually firm-specific. The systemic and sectorial components explain around 65% of credit risk in the European industrial and financial sectors and 50% in the North American sectors, while 35% and 50% of risk, respectively, is of an idiosyncratic nature. Thus, there is a significant margin for portfolio diversification. We also show that our decomposition allows us to identify those firms whose credit would be harder to hedge. We end up analyzing the relationship between the estimated components of risk and some synthetic risk factors, in order to learn about the different nature of the credit risk components.

The Determinants of Corporate CDS Spreads: Do Equity Liquidity and Jump Matter?

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 565-595
Author(s):  
Yuen Jung Park ◽  
Jungmu Kim
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Market Variables ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This paper investigates whether equity liquidity and stock return jump are important determinants for the Korean corporate CDS spreads. The previous studies mainly have examined the determinants of CDS spread time series levels, whereas this study focuses on the determinants of changes or differences of CDS spread time series as well as the effecting factors of cross-sectional variations. Using monthly averaged CDS quotes for 29 firms from Jan. 2005 to Nov. 2012, we first demonstrate that the explanatory power for CDS spread changes is improved to about 39% by adding both credit risk-related market variables and firm-level jump variables, contrary to the low explanatory power (approximately 21%) reported by the previous study. However, since the principle component analysis for residuals from the regression shows that a common risk factor exists, it is possible that additional important factor remains. In addition, we demonstrate that stock return volatility is a robust variable to explain the cross-sectional differences in CDS spreads. We also find that the equity liquidity is a robust and significant factor for the cross-sectional differences in CDS spreads after the global financial crisis period. The result implies that, after the recent crisis, investors more actively considered equity illiquidity costs when they hedged their CDS exposures by stocks.

The main determinants effecting international visitor arrivals in New Zealand

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 921-940 ◽  
Author(s):  
Azmat Gani ◽  
Michael D. Clemes
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Main Determinants ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This study examines the main determinants of international visitor arrivals in New Zealand in light of New Zealand’s major earthquakes in 2010 and 2011 as well as the global financial crisis of 2007. Our results provide strong evidence that visitor origin country per capita incomes, relative prices, real exchange rates, the distance between New Zealand and its main visitor origin countries and New Zealand’s record of good governance are statistically significant determinants of visitor arrivals to New Zealand. Our findings also reveal a negative but statistically insignificant effect of the earthquakes of 2010 and 2011on visitor arrivals to New Zealand. Our findings do not provide any significant regressive effect of the global financial crisis on visitor arrivals to New Zealand.

Generational Precarity, Education, and the Crisis of Capitalism: Conventional, Neo-Keynesian, and Marxian Perspectives

2015 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 339-354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander J. Means
Keyword(s):  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Sociology Of Education ◽  
Class Relations ◽  
Critical Sociology ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Marxian Analysis ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

In the wake of the global financial crisis, societies across the world are attempting to manage potentially destabilizing levels of youth unemployment and underemployment. New terms have entered the popular lexicon such as ‘generation jobless’, ‘the new underclass’, and ‘the precariat’ in order to describe a generation of young people struggling to acquire secure livelihoods in the most dismal labor market since the Great Depression. This article draws on analytical resources from critical sociology of education and heterodox political economy in order to critique orthodox economic diagnoses of generational precarity as a human capital problem. It argues that while neo-Keynesian accounts provide an important corrective to certain aspects of conventional (neoclassical/neoliberal) viewpoints, they ultimately fall short of the explanatory power of Marxian analysis, particularly concerning the primacy of class relations and the contradictory role of employment within an increasingly crisis-ridden global capitalism.

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