scholarly journals Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeno Enders ◽  
Michael Kleemann ◽  
Gernot J. Müller
Keyword(s):  
Output Growth ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
Survey Of Professional Forecasters ◽  
Current State ◽  
Output Fluctuations ◽  
Step Procedure ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Short Run ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Adjustment Dynamics

This paper proposes a two-step procedure in order to identify belief shocks—shocks to expectations about the current state of the economy. First, we use the Survey of Professional Forecasters to measure nowcast errors about contemporaneous output growth. Second, we extract belief shocks from nowcast errors, once by regressing them on existing measures of structural shocks, and once by imposing sign restrictions on a VAR model. Using both approaches, we find that belief shocks trigger similar adjustment dynamics and a high degree of co-movement across macroeconomic variables. Belief shocks account for about one third of short-run output fluctuations.

scholarly journals Cross-section instability in financial markets: impatience, extrapolation, and switching

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roberto Dieci ◽  
Xue-Zhong He
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Cross Section ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Asset Market ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Equilibrium Market ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Fundamental Price

AbstractThis paper presents a stylized model of interaction among boundedly rational heterogeneous agents in a multi-asset financial market to examine how agents’ impatience, extrapolation, and switching behaviors can affect cross-section market stability. Besides extrapolation and performance based switching between fundamental and extrapolative trading documented in single asset market, we show that a high degree of ‘impatience’ of agents who are ready to switch to more profitable trading strategy in the short run provides a further cross-section destabilizing mechanism. Though the ‘fundamental’ steady-state values, which reflect the standard present-value of the dividends, represent an unbiased equilibrium market outcome in the long run (to a certain extent), the price deviation from the fundamental price in one asset can spill-over to other assets, resulting in cross-section instability. Based on a (Neimark–Sacker) bifurcation analysis, we provide explicit conditions on how agents’ impatience, extrapolation, and switching can destabilize the market and result in a variety of short and long-run patterns for the cross-section asset price dynamics.

CARNIVAL POLITICAL TECHNOLOGIES: MASKS OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES IN MODERN RUSSIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 53-68
Author(s):  
A.V. SKIPERSKIKH ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Process ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Current State ◽  
Cultural Specificity ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Government ◽  
Social Organism ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Game Forms ◽  
Positive Effect

The purpose of the research is to present how the carnival element in the regional policy is associated with the legitimating of power. Also made of the current state of the regional political process in some constituent entities of the Russian Federation, characterized by a high degree of carnivalization. As a result, the importance of the practices of the regional elite, resorting to game forms of their own positioning. The legitimacy of the regional power to depend on festive discourse. A routine political process in the constituent entities of the Russia does not evoke public emotions that have a positive effect on the legitimation of power. The demand for the politics of spectacle is also present in municipal political practices in a very dangerous epoch of COVID-19. A social organism that needs emotions, as well as control, does not experience serious transformations. In society penchant for spectacle, as well as the political class in the production of carnival events, there are deep historical roots, as well as the cultural specificity of a particular region. The points out that in the regional political process one can increasingly see accents on festivals. So, the government solves two important problems: the first one is a public request for a show, it is resolved in conditions of a rather unpleasant and unpromising accumulation of negative for the authorities due to the deterioration of the socio-economic situation in general, the second one is the production of the play solves the issues of legitimation regional and municipal authorities.

scholarly journals Affinity chromatography and inhibition of chorismate mutase-prephenate dehydrogenase by derivatives of phenylalanine and tyrosine

1977 ◽  
Vol 165 (1) ◽  
pp. 121-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
G D Smith ◽  
D V Roberts ◽  
A Daday
Keyword(s):  
Affinity Chromatography ◽  
Competitive Inhibitor ◽  
Chorismate Mutase ◽  
Prephenate Dehydrogenase ◽  
Step Procedure ◽  
One Step ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Sepharose 4B ◽  
Derivatives Of

Several derivatives of phenylalanine and tyrosine were prepared and tested for inhibition of chorismate mutase-prephenate dehydrogenase (EC 1.3.1.12) from Escherichia coli K12 (strain JP 232). The best inhibitors were N-toluene-p-sulphonyl-L-phenylalanine, N-benzenesulphonyl-L-phenylalanine and N-benzloxycarbonyl-L-phenylalanine. Consequently two compounds, N-toluene-sulphonyl-L-p-aminophenylalanine and N-p-aminobenzenesulphonyl-L-phenylalanine, were synthesized for coupling to CNBr-activated Sepharose-4B. The N-toluene-p-sulphonyl-L-p-aminophenylalanine-Sepharose-4B conjugate was shown to bind the enzyme very strongly at pH 7.5. The enzyme was not eluted by various eluents, including 1 M-NaCl, but could be quantitatively recovered by washing with buffer of pH9. Elution was more effective in the presence of 10 mM-1-adamantaneacetic acid, a competitive inhibitor of the enzyme. This affinity-chromatography procedure results in a high degree of purification of the enzyme and can be used to prepare the enzyme in a one-step procedure from the bacterial crude extract. Such a procedure may therefore prove useful in studying this enzyme in a state that closely resembles that in vivo.

A Systematic Snapshot of Small Packaged Software Vendors' Enterprises

2021 ◽  
pp. 1262-1285
Author(s):  
Moutasm Tamimi ◽  
Issam Jebreen
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Research Methods ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Software Life Cycle ◽  
Software Environment ◽  
Packaged Software ◽  
Research Areas ◽  
Current State ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Evidence Based Decision Making

This article describes how small packaged software vendors' enterprises (SPSVEs) have played a massive role in a software environment and contributed dramatically to economies. The purpose of this article is to investigate and categorize the most recent of literature addressing small packaged software vendors' enterprises through a systematic snapshot research in order to identify current research topics and highlight some areas needing more consideration. The pattern of the authors' systematic approach is based on developing a classification scheme which targets a collection of papers published within the period of 2007-2017. The authors analysed one hundred and one papers from peer-reviewed conferences, journals, and workshops to examine the current state of SPSVE's research in order to provide systematic snapshot mapping (SSM) that includes the small packaged software life cycle, research methods used, and country of study. The systematic snapshot of 101 papers reveals that the majority of the literature has focused on the planning and implementation phases of SPSVEs. Figuring out a new model of packaged software life-cycle in SMEs will occur by applying the model of categorizations with regard to the life cycle with its factors and sub factors. Moreover, it will contribute to finding research methods, regions, top ten citation, articles type classifications, and other kinds of classifications. This research is targeted to small packaged software vendors' enterprises (SPSVEs). The authors' finding is intended for software research areas more than economic research areas. This article has presented a high degree of benefits in order to assist researchers in evidence-based decision making in terms of investigating hot research areas in line with the small packaged software vendors' enterprises (SPSVEs).

Prospects for the UK economy

2008 ◽  
Vol 205 ◽  
pp. 39-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Kirby
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Volume Growth ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Sales Volume ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Retail Sales ◽  
Sales Data ◽  
Rate Of Growth ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
The Uk

The economy is slowing as expected. NIESR's estimate of monthly GDP suggests that the rate of economic growth slowed from 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of this year to 0.2 per cent in the second quarter of this year (figure 1), the weakest rate of growth since the second quarter of 2001. Recent data on the state of the economy is mixed. Retail sales volume growth surged to 1.8 per cent per quarter in the three months to May 2008, up from a rate of growth of 1.2 per cent in the preceding three months. The index of production, however, recorded a fall of 0.5 per cent in the three months to May 2008. The index of services suggests services output growth has continued to be relatively subdued. The quarterly rate of growth in the three months to April was 0.3 per cent, half the rate of growth in the final quarter of 2007. While the retail sales data are not yet consistent with a consumer led slowdown, the decline of hotel and restaurant output in the three months to April suggests that other components of consumer spending are slowing.

scholarly journals Trade and economic development: global causality and development- and openness-related heterogeneity

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 923-944
Author(s):  
T. Gries ◽  
M. Redlin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Method Of Moments Estimation ◽  
General Method Of Moments ◽  
High Degree

Abstract This paper reconsiders the classic relationship between trade and economic development. We examine the short-term and long-run dynamics between trade and income for 167 countries over the period 1970–2011 and assume that the effect is not homogenous for all countries but rather varies according to the development stage and the degree of trade openness. We apply panel cointegration, Granger causality and panel error correction in combination with Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares and General Method of Moments estimation to explore the causal relationship between these two variables. The results suggest a statistically significant positive short-run and long-run global relationship between trade and income. However, when splitting the panel into different income and trade openness groups, a long-run relationship is observed only for high-income countries and countries with a relatively high degree of trade openness.

A Monthly Indicator of GDP

1997 ◽  
Vol 161 ◽  
pp. 84-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Salazar ◽  
Richard Smith ◽  
Martin Weale ◽  
Stephen Wright
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Current State ◽  
State Of The Economy

Cyclical indicators have hitherto been used as a means of describing the state of the economy on a month by month basis. However, they have proved unsatisfactory for a number of reasons and are now no longer published. This paper summarises a means of producing monthly estimates of GDP from existing monthly data. The technique can be used to extrapolate as well as to interpolate monthly data and therefore provides an indicator of the current state of the economy.

scholarly journals Risk Management in Product Design: Current State, Conceptual Model and Future Research

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josef Oehmen ◽  
Mohammad Ben-Daya ◽  
Warren Seering ◽  
Muhammad Al-Salamah
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Product Design ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Current State ◽  
Iso 31000 ◽  
Risk Treatment ◽  
Process Elements ◽  
High Degree

Risk management is an important element of product design. It helps to minimize the project- and product-related risks such as project budget and schedule overrun, or missing product cost and quality targets. Risk management is especially important for complex, international product design projects that involve a high degree of novel technology. This paper reviews the literature on risk management in product design. It examines the newly released international standard ISO 31000 “Risk management — Principles and guidelines” and explores its applicability to product design. The new standard consists of the seven process steps communication and consultation; establishing the context; risk identification; risk analysis; risk evaluation; risk treatment; and monitoring and review. A literature review reveals, among other findings, that the general ISO 31000 process model seems applicable to risk management in product design; the literature addresses different process elements to varying degrees, but none fully according to ISO recommendations; and that the integration of product design risk management with risk management of other disciplines, or between project and portfolio level in product design, is not well developed.

scholarly journals Modeling Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics of Foreign Direct Investment on the Manufacturing Sector Growth in Nigeria: The ARDL Bound Testing Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 128
Author(s):  
Nseabasi Imoh Etukafia ◽  
Ntiedo Bassey Ekpo ◽  
Ikenna Elias Asogwa
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Multinational Corporations ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Bound Test

This paper econometrically examines the long run and the short run dynamics of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the manufacturing sector growth in Nigeria between the period 1981 and 2015. Data used in this study were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin published in 2016. The econometric methodology adopted was the bound test and auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach to estimate cointegrating relationship as well as short run and long run dynamics of the FDI and other explanatory variables on output growth in the manufacturing sector. Results of the long run behaviour and short run dynamics (error correction model) indicate that economic liberalization is significant in influencing changes in manufacturing output growth. However, FDI has no significant effect in both the short run and the long run episode. Therefore, it is recommended that policies aimed at encouraging increased participation of private domestic investors in collaboration with multinational corporations in the manufacturing sector be crafted.

scholarly journals Justification of the using of the method of air reconnaissance of area of intensive application of mine weapons

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-68
Author(s):  
Volodymyr Kotsyuruba ◽  
Sergei Tsybulia ◽  
Viktor Rybalko
Keyword(s):  
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles ◽  
Time Management ◽  
Continuous Monitoring ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Military Equipment ◽  
Full Coverage ◽  
Current State ◽  
Object Based ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Management Cycle

The article is devoted to the analysis of the current state of mine protection that concerns troops, it is a set of measures carried out by all types and branches of troops, and it is aimed at protecting personnel and military equipment from mine weapons. One of the ways to increase mine protection of troops is to enlarge the efficiency of informing the troops about the mine situation directly in the area of combat operations. Therefore, the timeliness of carrying out activities for the search, identification, fixation of explosive objects in the ground, as well as the timely collection and communication to relevant officials and departments of this information is the main goal of engineering intelligence in areas of intensive mine warfare. One of the ways to improve the effectiveness of engineering intelligence is to introduce the practice of identifying mine-explosive barriers and countering the enemy sabotage, reconnaissance forces and illegal armed groups that install them in order to establish new ways of conducting intelligence. The methods are based on the using of modern means of obtaining, processing and promptly bringing intelligence data about the mine situation. So a significant increasing of the intelligence capabilities of engineering units is possible through the using of unmanned aerial vehicles. When units are equipped with such devices, it becomes possible to move from an object-based method of conducting reconnaissance to a more efficient one — a zonal one, the essence of which lies in certain subunits of intelligence in areas of responsibility. This will allow the intelligence units to introduce continuous monitoring of the terrain with its full coverage, carrying out maneuvers, if necessary, largely by means, not forces. It will lead to increase effectiveness of the using of engineering reconnaissance units, their full coverage of the operation band, a reduction in the time management cycle of exploration and the achievement of a high degree of efficiency in providing information to the commanders on the mine situation.

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