Contractionary Devaluation Risk: Evidence from the Free Silver Movement, 1878–1900

2020 ◽  
Vol 102 (4) ◽  
pp. 705-720
Author(s):  
Colin Weiss
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Gold Standard ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Significant Fall ◽  
Contractionary Devaluation

I identify significant effects of devaluation risk on interest rates and output using US silver coinage policy news between 1878 and 1900 as clean shocks to exchange rate expectations. The Free Silver movement heightened fears the United States would abandon the gold standard and depreciate the dollar. Because Congress, rather than a central bank, set silver coinage policy, silver policy news was likely uncorrelated with economic shocks. Corporate bonds exposed to dollar devaluation returned an additional 1 percent relative to safer bonds when silver risk decreased. Additionally, increased silver coinage risk is associated with an economically significant fall in industrial production.

The Self-Inflicted Wounds

Money ◽  
2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Kenneth Galbraith ◽  
James K. Galbraith
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Gold Standard ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Self ◽  
Gold Content ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Stock Market Crash

This chapter examines the negative consequences of Britain's return to the gold standard in 1925 and the stock market speculation in the United States in the late 1920s. In Britain, as elsewhere, prices fell in 1920 and 1921 as the wartime shortages were overcome, the budget was brought back under control, and the boom came to an end. Unemployment, which had been negligible in the preceding years, rose to 12.6 percent of the labor force in 1921. The chapter considers Winston Churchill's justification of Britain's decision to restore the pound to its prewar gold content of 123.27 grains of fine gold, its old exchange rate of $4.87, John Maynard Keynes's case against Churchill, and the stock market crash of October 1929 in the United States after the Federal Reserve Board had issued a warning against banks's use of Federal Reserve funds to finance speculation.

Chapter III. The World Economy

1980 ◽  
Vol 93 ◽  
pp. 36-48
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
The United States ◽  
Similar Magnitude ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Significant Fall ◽  
The World

The growth of output in OECD member countries has been abruptly checked. Helped perhaps by relatively favourable weather, industrial production appears to have increased by 1-1½ per cent in the first quarter. In the second, however, there seems to have been quite a significant fall in Western Europe as well as in the United States, and a marked slowing down of growth in Japan (table 1). We no longer expect the aggregate rise for the year in member countries to be any more than ½ per cent (implying a drop of similar magnitude from the first quarter's rate), and the OECD secretariat has been forecasting a marginal fall. In terms of GDP the change of trend has been less pronounced but may well have been equally general. Though both we and OECD are expecting a rise of a little more than 1 per cent for the whole of 1980, some fall seems likely in the second half of the year.

scholarly journals THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT MACROECONOMIC POLICY ON INDONESIA'S FISHERIES EXPORT TO THE UNITED STATES IN 1989-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 267
Author(s):  
Akhmad Jayadi ◽  
Tanto Firmansyah
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Effect

Indonesia is a maritime country that has huge potential in fisheries sector. The average of indonesian fisheries production and export volumes always increase every year. This study aims to analyze the effect of exchange rates, government spending, inflation, interest rates, and sanitation policies to Indonesia fishery export to the United States in 1989-2019. Data were obtained from the Indonesian Ministry of Finance, the World Bank, UN COMTRADE, and the Indonesian Ministry of Maritime Affairs and Fisheries. This study uses the Error Coerrection Model (ECM) method to examine the effect of the independent variables on the dependent variable in the long term and short term. This study explains that in the long-term, government spending and exchange rate have positive effect, and interest rates have negative effect on export. In short-term, government spending and exchange rate have positive effect on export. Inflation and sanitation policy do not affect export in the long-term or short-term, while interest rates in the short-term do not affect Indonesian fishery exports. Keywords: Exports, Government Spending, Exchange Rates, Non-Tariff Barriers, Error Correction Model.JEL: F10, F13, C32

scholarly journals A Theory of Foreign Exchange Interventions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastián Fanelli ◽  
Ludwig Straub
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Pecuniary Externality ◽  
Optimal Intervention ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Intervention Policy

Abstract We study a real small open economy with two key ingredients (1) partial segmentation of home and foreign bond markets and (2) a pecuniary externality that makes the real exchange rate excessively volatile in response to capital flows. Partial segmentation implies that, by intervening in the bond markets, the central bank can affect the exchange rate and the spread between home- and foreign-bond yields. Such interventions allow the central bank to address the pecuniary externality, but they are also costly, as foreigners make carry trade profits. We analytically characterize the optimal intervention policy that solves this trade-off: (1) the optimal policy leans against the wind, stabilizing the exchange rate; (2) it involves smooth spreads but allows exchange rates to jump; (3) it partly relies on “forward guidance,” with non-zero interventions even after the shock has subsided; (4) it requires credibility, in that central banks do not intervene without commitment. Finally, we shed light on the global consequences of widespread interventions, using a multi-country extension of our model. We find that, left to themselves, countries over-accumulate reserves, reducing welfare and leading to inefficiently low world interest rates.

MRI Research Proposals Involving Child Subjects: Concerns Hindering Research Ethics Boards from Approving Them and a Checklist to Help Evaluate Them

2011 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. DEBORAH SHILOFF ◽  
BRYAN MAGWOOD ◽  
KRISZTINA L. MALISZA
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Research Ethics ◽  
Gold Standard ◽  
The United States ◽  
Institutional Review Boards ◽  
Scientific Review ◽  
Initial Development ◽  
Institutional Review ◽  
Research Ethics Boards ◽  
A Current

The process of research is often lengthy and can be extremely arduous. It may take many years to proceed from the initial development of an idea through to the comparison of the new modalities against a current gold-standard practice. Each step along the way involves rigorous scientific review, where protocols are scrutinized by multiple scientists not only in the specific field at hand but related fields as well. In addition to scientific review, most countries require a further review by a panel that will specifically address the ethics of the proposed research. In Canada, those panels are referred to as Research Ethics Boards (REB), with the United States counterparts known as Institutional Review Boards (IRB).

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