The Demographic Transition Theory of War: Why Young Societies Are Conflict Prone and Old Societies Are the Most Peaceful

2019 ◽  
Vol 43 (3) ◽  
pp. 53-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deborah Jordan Brooks ◽  
Stephen G. Brooks ◽  
Brian D. Greenhill ◽  
Mark L. Haas
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Empirical Examination ◽  
Demographic Transitions ◽  
The Road ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The World ◽  
Theory Of War ◽  
First Time

The world is experiencing a period of unprecedented demographic change. For the first time in human history, marked disparities in age structures exist across the globe. Around 40 percent of the world's population lives in countries with significant numbers of elderly citizens. In contrast, the majority of the world's people live in developing countries with very large numbers of young people as a proportion of the total population. Yet, demographically, most of the world's states with young populations are aging, and many are doing so quickly. This first-of-its kind systematic theoretical and empirical examination of how these demographic transitions influence the likelihood of interstate conflict shows that countries with a large number of young people as a proportion of the total population are the most prone to international conflict, whereas states with the oldest populations are the most peaceful. Although societal aging is likely to serve as a force for enhanced stability in most, and perhaps all, regions of the world over the long term, the road to a “demographic peace” is likely to be bumpy in many parts of the world in the short to medium term.

scholarly journals V. Bryusov’s Letters to His Fiancée

Literary Fact ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 8-30
Author(s):  
Monika V. Orlova
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Full Text ◽  
Terminally Ill ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
State Of Mind ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Village ◽  
The Relationship

The publication includes V.Ya. Bryusov’s letters to his fiancée I.M. Runt (1876 –1965) from June 9 to September 9, 1897. 11 correspondences, including the final telegram sent from Kursk, were written and sent from Aachen (Germany), Moscow and several Ukrainian localities. The letter 10 is accompanied by the full text of I.M. Runt’s only surviving letter to Bryusov, sent from Moscow to the village of Bolshye Sorochintsy and received by the poet a few months later at home. The relationship between the young people before the wedding were complicated. While the poet was preparing for the wedding in Moscow, he summed up the past contacts with “mes amantes”, and his state of mind was painful. Shortly before meeting his future wife, Bryusov broke up with the former governess of his family E.I. Pavlovskaya, who was terminally ill. A few days before the wedding he decided to go to say goodbye to Pavlovskaya to her homeland, Ukraine. In his letters to the future wife the poet tried to smooth out the tension of the situation, perhaps anticipating that he would be bounded with I.M. Runt 30 Литературный факт. 2021. № 2 (20) by a long-term relationship, where life and literature are closely interconnected. The letters are published for the first time.

scholarly journals COMPLEXITY-BASED ANALYSIS OF THE ALTERATIONS IN THE STRUCTURE OF CORONAVIRUSES

Fractals ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (02) ◽  
pp. 2150123
Author(s):  
HAMIDREZA NAMAZI ◽  
ALI SELAMAT ◽  
ONDREJ KREJCAR
Keyword(s):  
Hurst Exponent ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
Approximate Entropy ◽  
Sample Entropy ◽  
Long Term Memory ◽  
Complex Structures ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
The World ◽  
First Time

The coronavirus has influenced the lives of many people since its identification in 1960. In general, there are seven types of coronavirus. Although some types of this virus, including 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1, cause mild to moderate illness, SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2 have shown to have severer effects on the human body. Specifically, the recent known type of coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, has affected the lives of many people around the world since late 2019 with the disease named COVID-19. In this paper, for the first time, we investigated the variations among the complex structures of coronaviruses. We employed the fractal dimension, approximate entropy, and sample entropy as the measures of complexity. Based on the obtained results, SARS-CoV-2 has a significantly different complex structure than SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. To study the high mutation rate of SARS-CoV-2, we also analyzed the long-term memory of genome walks for different coronaviruses using the Hurst exponent. The results demonstrated that the SARS-CoV-2 shows the lowest memory in its genome walk, explaining the errors in copying the sequences along the genome that results in the virus mutation.

A Closer Look at the Culture of Infidelity

2020 ◽  
pp. 180-200
Author(s):  
Steven M. Ortiz
Keyword(s):  
Professional Sports ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Road ◽  
Emotional Relationships ◽  
The World ◽  
On The Road ◽  
The One ◽  
Communication Methods

This chapter takes a deeper look at the culture of infidelity that pervades the world of professional sports, why wives share a universal fear that their husbands will be unfaithful, and how they are affected by the possibility or actuality that their husbands will engage in sexual or emotional relationships with other women. Three patterns of infidelity are identified in the context of the sport marriage: the one-time encounter, the short-term affair, and the long-term affair. The concept of suspicion work is introduced to examine how wives try to manage the fear that their husbands may succumb to temptation and to specify how denial can be part of this process. The chapter discusses re-entry routines and communication methods some couples use when husbands return from travel, and the boundaries of fidelity and forgiveness wives establish as they attempt to cope with the realities of their husbands’ lives on the road.

Higher Education at a Crossroads

2016 ◽  
pp. 27-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pamela A. Lemoine ◽  
Thomas Hackett ◽  
Michael D. Richardson
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Research Funding ◽  
Organizational Structures ◽  
University Research ◽  
Public Higher Education ◽  
The Road ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The World ◽  
Quality Learning ◽  
The Impact

The leadership needs to develop new organizational structures and systems that will promote and encourage quality learning and the ability to assess the impact of the teaching. Governments across the world have steadily minimized their support for public higher education, and costs associated with gaining a degree have increased constantly over the last decade. Most universities are forced to adopt a restructuring model for commoditizing education to make a profit from large numbers of students. The road ahead for higher education is filled with challenges, risks and uncertainties that begin with education being valued as more than a simple commodity: education becomes a public good. Higher education is increasingly viewed as a major instrument of economic development. In order to hold universities accountable despite limited governmental budgets, many nations have adopted performance-based university research funding strategies for targeted programs.

Foreign Demand, Investment And Trade Balance: The Case Of Australia

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-Francois Hoarau ◽  
Alain Nurbel ◽  
Nelson Latchimy
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Demand ◽  
J Curve ◽  
The World ◽  
Curve Effect ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

This paper aims at analysing the relation between real trade balance and foreign demand in the case of a small opened economy, which highly depends upon the rest of the world for productive capital. Theoretical analysis allows us to bring forth a kind of “J-curve” effect. Indeed, when foreign demand for domestic goods increases, the country is to import in a first time in order to improve its productive capacities, resulting in worsening trade balance. However, in a second time, once the cumulated capital inventory became sufficient, the trade balance improves under the pressure of domestic exports high growth. The empirical analysis based on Australia from 1982 (1) to 2001 (1) supports this theory. We show there are negative short term and positive long term elasticities.

scholarly journals Temporal clustering of Kawasaki disease cases around the world

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer A. Burney ◽  
Laurel L. DeHaan ◽  
Chisato Shimizu ◽  
Emelia V. Bainto ◽  
Jane W. Newburger ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Kawasaki Disease ◽  
San Diego ◽  
Combine Data ◽  
Disease Etiology ◽  
Temporal Clustering ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Short Time

AbstractIn a single-site study (San Diego, CA, USA), we previously showed that Kawasaki Disease (KD) cases cluster temporally in bursts of approximately 7 days. These clusters occurred more often than would be expected at random even after accounting for long-term trends and seasonality. This finding raised the question of whether other locations around the world experience similar temporal clusters of KD that might offer clues to disease etiology. Here we combine data from San Diego and nine additional sites around the world with hospitals that care for large numbers of KD patients, as well as two multi-hospital catchment regions. We found that across these sites, KD cases clustered at short time scales and there were anomalously long quiet periods with no cases. Both of these phenomena occurred more often than would be expected given local trends and seasonality. Additionally, we found unusually frequent temporal overlaps of KD clusters and quiet periods between pairs of sites. These findings suggest that regional and planetary range environmental influences create periods of higher or lower exposure to KD triggers that may offer clues to the etiology of KD.

scholarly journals Performance Evaluation Of 802.11P Vanets With Different Duty Cycles

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rishabh Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Performance Evaluation ◽  
Duty Cycle ◽  
Multimedia Applications ◽  
The Road ◽  
Duty Cycles ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The World ◽  
On The Road ◽  
Delay Tolerant ◽  
Service Channels

With the improvement in technology, the number of vehicles on the roads has increased tremendously over the last decade. As large numbers of vehicles are on the road it has become almost a necessity to improve the driving conditions, provide all the facilities and to make sure that driving is safe for drivers around the world. To utilize this information the vehicle has to alternately switch between control (CCH) and service channels (SCH) effectively. So, in our work we evaluate the performance of vehicles on control and service channels with different duty cycle such that no critical message is missed and multimedia applications can be used concurrently. For this purpose we developed 802.11p simulator and the experiments proved that CCH should use duty cycle of 0.6 as delay tolerant data has to be transmitted over it and SCH should work on 0.3 which is delay insensitive, but generates revenue for the industry by using different multimedia applications as requested by the user.

scholarly journals Defined aspects of the development of Ukrainian pop song within the postcolonial period of the late XX – early XXI century

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anatoliy Oronovsky ◽  
Ganna Tsap ◽  
Larysa Oronovska
Keyword(s):  
World Music ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Social Changes ◽  
Music Culture ◽  
Musical Culture ◽  
The World ◽  
Flexible Mechanism ◽  
First Time ◽  
Ukrainian Society

The purpose of the article. To consider and analyze some aspects of the development of modern Ukrainian pop songs in the postcolonial period of the late XX - early XXI century. The methodology involves the use of a systematic approach to research, as well as the use of methods of analysis, synthesis, historical and comparative, which allowed analyzing the development of Ukrainian pop songs in the Soviet system and after independence when it was in the field of Russian influence. which is the glow of long-term colonial status. The scientific novelty is that for the first time the development of Ukrainian pop songs was considered not only in the context of art analysis but also the research of postcolonialism, which generally affected the development of Ukrainian culture of XX - early XXI century. Conclusions. Changes in music culture are evidence of the adaptation of the flexible mechanism of music creation to new operating conditions. And although it is difficult to predict further social changes and their impact on the formation of musical culture not only in Ukrainian society but also in the world, the main trends have already been outlined. They consist of a certain unification of musical and stylistic standards, which will eliminate the differences between performers of popular musical compositions around the world. Accordingly, globalization dictates fashion in the field of music culture. In general, at the beginning of the third millennium, Ukrainian pop song culture entered the context of European and world cultural processes and became the property of world music culture, and its brightest representatives occupy a worthy place among world masters. Keywords: pop, pop song, postcolonial influences, national self-identification.

Long-term scarring effect of neither working nor studying

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 190-204
Author(s):  
Fredrik W. Andersson ◽  
Susanne Gullberg Brännstrom ◽  
Roger Mörtvik
Keyword(s):  
Young People ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Term Effect ◽  
Market Outcomes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Term Effect ◽  
Employment Education ◽  
First Time ◽  
Unobservable Heterogeneity

Purpose It is increasingly important to study labour market outcomes for people who are not in employment, education, or training (NEET). Where most studies focus solely on young people, the purpose of this paper is to include both younger and older NEETs to find out if there is any long-term scarring effect, and if the effect is different between these two groups. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a twin-based estimation method for the first time to measure the long-term effect of economic inactivity on income. The analysis is based on biological twins, in order to control for individuals’ unobservable heterogeneity. It is assumed that twins are similar to each other and the only unobservable heterogeneity is at the family level. Register-based data from Statistics Sweden is used. Findings The result indicates a significant negative income effect for those who have been in NEET, and is larger for those who have been in NEET for several consecutive periods of time. Individuals who were in NEET during 2001-2003 had on average 62 per cent lower income compared with their twin in 2011. The corresponding number for individuals who were in NEET for just one period was 33 per cent. Hence, time in NEET reduces income. The results show that the long-term scarring effect is not affected by age. Originality/value This study utilises for the first time a twin-based estimation method to measure the long-term effect of inactivity. Most studies focus solely on young people, but the authors also include an older group of people.

scholarly journals AN EVALUATION ON FINANCIAL PROBLEMS OF SMALL AND MEDIUM SIZED ENTERPRISES (SMSEs) IN TURKEY

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
pp. 51-60
Keyword(s):  
Capital Market ◽  
Financial Management ◽  
Financial Problems ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Globalizing World ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
The World ◽  
Management Problems ◽  
Increase Efficiency

Turkey also consists of a majority of businesses are small and medium-sized organizations that we define as Kobi. But despite their large numbers, their contribution to the country's economy is not so much. The main reasons are financial problems, financial management problems, productivity problems. The fact that they are not able to follow the developments in the world of finance, the lack of auto financing facilities, the collateral problems they encounter in credit purchases, the low credit volumes, and the high credit costs, the inability to enter the capital market, and other similar problems prevent SMEs from having strong financial structures and reduce their competitiveness. Based on the fact that SMEs that cannot overcome their financial problems in the globalizing world will not survive in the national/international intensive competition environment, the financial conditions of our country's SMEs should be analyzed well, constructive, long-term, and solutions to increase efficiency should be produced.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document