Climate in the Boardroom: Struggling to Reconcile Business as Usual & the End of the World as We Know It

Abstract: Changes in the global oceanic system have already negatively affected the world&#8217;s marine life and the livelihoods of many coastal communities across the world, including in the Middle East' and Eastern Africa's Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Coastal communities in Somalia and Yemen for instance, have been particularly affected by extreme environmental events (EEEs), with an increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones over the past 20 years. Using expert elicitation as a method to generate data to assess and quantify a specific issue in the absence of sufficient and/or reliable data, the authors interviewed selected specialists in or from Somalia and Yemen, from diverse fields of expertise related to climate change, extreme environmental events, disaster risk reduction, and humanitarian affairs. Ten experts followed the elicitation protocol and answered a specific series of questions in order to better quantify the expectable mid-to-long-term climatic and humanitarian levels of risks, impacts, and consequences that climate change and related issues (e.g., sea-level rise, tropical cyclones, and sea surge) may generate in coastal areas along the Gulf of Aden's coastal cities of Aden and Bossaso, in Yemen and Somalia, respectively.The findings indicate that there is cause for significant concern as climate change is assessed by all interviewees - irrespective of their background -, as very likely to hold a negative to a devastating impact on (fresh) water security, food security, public health, social conflicts, population displacement, and eventually political stability; and to strongly worsen the humanitarian situations in Somalia and Yemen, both in the medium-term (i.e., 2020-2050) and the long-term (i.e., 2020-2100). The authors call on the scientific community to further research the issue of climate change in the understudied coastal areas of the Gulf of Aden, and on the international community to pro-actively and urgently help the local populations and relevant authorities to rapidly and strongly build up their adaptation capacities, especially in the niche of coastal EEEs.

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TO THE ISSUE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTERNATIONAL LEGAL COOPERATION OF STATES IN THE FIELD OF THE RATIONAL USE AND PROTECTION OF RESOURCES OF THE WORLD OCEAN

The rule-of-law state: theory and practice ◽

10.33184/pravgos-2020.1.17 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 16 (1) ◽

pp. 154-161

Author(s):

Михаил Елизаров

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

World Ocean ◽

Future Generations ◽

Global Level ◽

Legal Basis ◽

Rational Use ◽

Global Consensus ◽

The World ◽

Acute Challenge

Over the decades, attempts were made to elaborate a legally binding single document on ocean resource management that would be acceptable to all countries. The culmination of this process was the adoption of the 1982 UN Convention on the law of sea. Since its entry into force, the Convention has become an important legal basis for ensuring the rational use of the world's ocean resources and their long-term conservation on behalf of future generations. At the same time, there remains the very acute challenge associated with finding a balance between reaching a global consensus on issues that are common to all and identifying topics that can be addressed and resolved by leaders at the global level. As humankind continues to postpone the adoption of urgent measures to prevent the effects of climate change, the environment deteriorates, while measures to mitigate these effects get more expensive and complex.

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Introduction

Nature and the Environment in Nineteenth-Century Ireland ◽

10.3828/liverpool/9781789620320.003.0001 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 1-15

Author(s):

Matthew Kelly

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Nineteenth Century ◽

Human Nature ◽

Future Study ◽

Historical Study ◽

The World ◽

Individual Contributions ◽

The Individual ◽

Narrative Thread ◽

The Relationship

This introduction considers the ‘environmental turn’ taken in the humanities, and particularly in historical study, suggesting ways in which these developments might animate the future study of nineteenth-century Ireland. Question of agency and the relationship between human and non-human nature are addressed. Also considered is how current environmental concerns, and climate change in particular, should lead us to think anew about the past, rendering familiar subjects unfamiliar. Particular attention is paid to how Ireland’s past might be located within larger global processes, attracting the interest of scholars from throughout the world. It then introduces the individual contributions in the volume, tracing a narrative thread through them in order to demonstrate how a change in optic can significantly change how we think about Ireland’s recent past.

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From the Punjab to Pattala

In the Path of Conquest ◽

10.1093/oso/9780190076689.003.0015 ◽

2020 ◽

pp. 234-264

Author(s):

Waldemar Heckel

Keyword(s):

Monsoon Season ◽

River System ◽

Indus River ◽

The World ◽

End Of The World ◽

The Ganges ◽

Direct Attack

The campaign in the Punjab saw Alexander, supported by his Indian ally Taxiles, attack Porus, who lived beyond the Hydaspes River. The battle, at the beginning of the monsoon season, involved a division of the Macedonian forces. One part faced Porus at the river crossing, where the current and the elephants in the Indian army made a direct attack virtually impossible. Alexander took a portion of his army and marched upstream. Once across the river, he drew Porus away from his defensive position and defeated the Indian ruler in a battle fought primarily by cavalry, although the Macedonian pikemen inflicted injuries on the elephants, which became a danger to their own troops. After the Hydaspes victory, Alexander advanced to the Hyphasis (Beas), where the army refused to cross in order to march to the Ganges. The whole episode was contrived, since Alexander clearly had no intention of going farther east. His failure to reach the eastern end of the world was thus attributed to the timidity and war-weariness of his soldiers. During the descent of the Indus river system, Alexander received a near-fatal wound at the hands of the Mallians. Once he recovered, Alexander conducted a series of bloody massacres as he sailed to the mouth of the Indus and accomplished his goal of sailing out into the ocean. Although the Indian campaign was by far the bloodiest of the expedition, there was little long-term gain from the conquest.

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Internal consistency of the Regional Brewer Calibration Centre for Europe triad during the period 2005–2016

Atmospheric Measurement Techniques ◽

10.5194/amt-11-4059-2018 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 11 (7) ◽

pp. 4059-4072 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Sergio Fabián León-Luis ◽

Alberto Redondas ◽

Virgilio Carreño ◽

Javier López-Solano ◽

Alberto Berjón ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Standard Deviation ◽

Relative Standard Deviation ◽

Data Sets ◽

Individual Values ◽

Relative Standard ◽

The World ◽

The Mean ◽

The Individual ◽

Ozone Column

Abstract. Total ozone column measurements can be made using Brewer spectrophotometers, which are calibrated periodically in intercomparison campaigns with respect to a reference instrument. In 2003, the Regional Brewer Calibration Centre for Europe (RBCC-E) was established at the Izaña Atmospheric Research Center (Canary Islands, Spain), and since 2011 the RBCC-E has transferred its calibration based on the Langley method using travelling standard(s) that are wholly and independently calibrated at Izaña. This work is focused on reporting the consistency of the measurements of the RBCC-E triad (Brewer instruments #157, #183 and #185) made at the Izaña Atmospheric Observatory during the period 2005–2016. In order to study the long-term precision of the RBCC-E triad, it must be taken into account that each Brewer takes a large number of measurements every day and, hence, it becomes necessary to calculate a representative value of all of them. This value was calculated from two different methods previously used to study the long-term behaviour of the world reference triad (Toronto triad) and Arosa triad. Applying their procedures to the data from the RBCC-E triad allows the comparison of the three instruments. In daily averages, applying the procedure used for the world reference triad, the RBCC-E triad presents a relative standard deviation equal to σ = 0.41 %, which is calculated as the mean of the individual values for each Brewer (σ157 = 0.362 %, σ183 = 0.453 % and σ185 = 0.428 %). Alternatively, using the procedure used to analyse the Arosa triad, the RBCC-E presents a relative standard deviation of about σ = 0.5 %. In monthly averages, the method used for the data from the world reference triad gives a relative standard deviation mean equal to σ = 0.3 % (σ157 = 0.33 %, σ183 = 0.34 % and σ185 = 0.23 %). However, the procedure of the Arosa triad gives monthly values of σ = 0.5 %. In this work, two ozone data sets are analysed: the first includes all the ozone measurements available, while the second only includes the simultaneous measurements of all three instruments. Furthermore, this paper also describes the Langley method used to determine the extraterrestrial constant (ETC) for the RBCC-E triad, the necessary first step toward accurate ozone calculation. Finally, the short-term or intraday consistency is also studied to identify the effect of the solar zenith angle on the precision of the RBCC-E triad.

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It’s the End of the World as We Know It: The Advance of Climate Change from a Criminological Perspective

Climate Change from a Criminological Perspective ◽

10.1007/978-1-4614-3640-9_2 ◽

2012 ◽

pp. 13-25 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Robert Agnew

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

The World ◽

Criminological Perspective ◽

End Of The World

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Non-linear, long-term evolution of sea surface temperature across the World Ocean

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-22546 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Benjamin Martinez-Lopez

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Surface Temperature ◽

Sea Surface Temperature ◽

World Ocean ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Second Derivative ◽

Term Evolution ◽

The World ◽

Non Linear

Sea surface temperature (SST) is the only oceanic parameter on which depend heat fluxes between ocean and atmosphere and, therefore, SST is one of the key factors that influence climate and its variability. Over the twentieth century, SSTs have significantly increased around the global ocean, warming that has been attributed to anthropogenic climate change, although it is not yet clear how much of it is related to natural causes and how much is due to human activities. A considerable part of available literature regarding climate change has been built based on the global or hemispheric analysis of surface temperature trends. There are, however, some key open questions that need to be answered and for this task estimates of long-term SST trend patterns represent a source of valuable information. Unfortunately, long-term SST trend patterns have large uncertainties and although SST constitutes one of the most-measured ocean variables of our historic records, their poor spatial and temporal sampling, as well as inhomogeneous measurements technics, hinder an accurate determination of long-term SST trends, which increases their uncertainty and, therefore, limit their physical interpretation as well as their use in the verification of climate simulations. Most of the long-term SST trend patterns have been built using linear techniques, which are very usefull when they are used to extract information of measurements satisfying two key assumptions: linearity and stationarity. The global warming resulting of our economic activities, however, affect the state of the World Ocean and the atmosphere inducing changes in the climate that may result in oscillatory modes of variability of different frequencies, which may undergo non-stationary and non-linear evolutions. In this work, we construct long-term SST trend patterns by using non-linear techniques to extract non-linear, long-term trends in each grid-point of two available global SST datasets: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST) and from the Hadley Centre sea ice and SST (HadISST). The used non-linear technique makes a good job even if the SST data are non-linear and non-stationary. Additionally, the nonlinearity of the extracted trends allows the use of the first and second derivative to get more information about the global, long-term evolution of the SST fields, favoring thus a deeper understanding and interpretation of the observed changes in SST. Particularly, our results clearly show, in both ERSST and HadISST datasets, the non-uniform warming observed in the tropical Pacific, which seems to be related to the enhanced vertical heat flux in the eastern equatorial Pacific and the strengthening of the warm pool in the western Pacific. By using the second derivative of the nonlinear SST trends, emerges an interesting pattern delimiting several zones in the Pacific Ocean which have been responded in a different way to the impose warming of the last century.

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Threats to the running water ecosystems of the world

Environmental Conservation ◽

10.1017/s0376892902000097 ◽

2002 ◽

Vol 29 (2) ◽

pp. 134-153 ◽

Cited By ~ 547

Author(s):

Björn Malmqvist ◽

Simon Rundle

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Developed Countries ◽

Running Waters ◽

Running Water ◽

Lotic Systems ◽

The World ◽

Long Term Trends ◽

Water Ecosystems

Running waters are perhaps the most impacted ecosystem on the planet as they have been the focus for human settlement and are heavily exploited for water supplies, irrigation, electricity generation, and waste disposal. Lotic systems also have an intimate contact with their catchments and so land-use alterations affect them directly. Here long-term trends in the factors that currently impact running waters are reviewed with the aim of predicting what the main threats to rivers will be in the year 2025. The main ultimate factors forcing change in running waters (ecosystem destruction, physical habitat and water chemistry alteration, and the direct addition or removal of species) stem from proximate influences from urbanization, industry, land-use change and water-course alterations. Any one river is likely to be subjected to several types of impact, and the management of impacts on lotic systems is complicated by numerous links between different forms of anthropogenic effect. Long-term trends for different impacts vary. Concentrations of chemical pollutants such as toxins and nutrients have increased in rivers in developed countries over the past century, with recent reductions for some pollutants (e.g. metals, organic toxicants, acidification), and continued increases in others (e.g. nutrients); there are no long-term chemical data for developing countries. Dam construction increased rapidly during the twentieth century, peaking in the 1970s, and the number of reservoirs has stabilized since this time, whereas the transfer of exotic species between lotic systems continues to increase. Hence, there have been some success stories in the attempts to reduce the impacts from anthropogenic impacts in developed nations. Improvements in the pH status of running waters should continue with lower sulphurous emissions, although emissions of nitrous oxides are set to continue under current legislation and will continue to contribute to acidification and nutrient loadings. Climate change also will impact running waters through alterations in hydrology and thermal regimes, although precise predictions are problematic; effects are likely to vary between regions and to operate alongside rather than override those from other impacts. Effects from climate change may be more extreme over longer time scales (>50 years). The overriding pressure on running water ecosystems up to 2025 will stem from the predicted increase in the human population, with concomitant increases in urban development, industry, agricultural activities and water abstraction, diversion and damming. Future degradation could be substantial and rapid (c. 10 years) and will be concentrated in those areas of the world where resources for conservation are most limited and knowledge of lotic ecosystems most incomplete; damage will centre on lowland rivers, which are also relatively poorly studied. Changes in management practices and public awareness do appear to be benefiting running water ecosystems in developed countries, and could underpin conservation strategies in developing countries if they were implemented in a relevant way.

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Merged SAGE II, Ozone_cci and OMPS ozone profile dataset and evaluation of ozone trends in the stratosphere

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics ◽

10.5194/acp-17-12533-2017 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 17 (20) ◽

pp. 12533-12552 ◽

Cited By ~ 25

Author(s):

Viktoria F. Sofieva ◽

Erkki Kyrölä ◽

Marko Laine ◽

Johanna Tamminen ◽

Doug Degenstein ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Stratospheric Ozone ◽

European Space Agency ◽

Space Agency ◽

Ozone Profile ◽

Ozone Trends ◽

Stratospheric Cooling ◽

The Individual ◽

Good Agreement

Abstract. In this paper, we present a merged dataset of ozone profiles from several satellite instruments: SAGE II on ERBS, GOMOS, SCIAMACHY and MIPAS on Envisat, OSIRIS on Odin, ACE-FTS on SCISAT, and OMPS on Suomi-NPP. The merged dataset is created in the framework of the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (Ozone_cci) with the aim of analyzing stratospheric ozone trends. For the merged dataset, we used the latest versions of the original ozone datasets. The datasets from the individual instruments have been extensively validated and intercompared; only those datasets which are in good agreement, and do not exhibit significant drifts with respect to collocated ground-based observations and with respect to each other, are used for merging. The long-term SAGE–CCI–OMPS dataset is created by computation and merging of deseasonalized anomalies from individual instruments. The merged SAGE–CCI–OMPS dataset consists of deseasonalized anomalies of ozone in 10° latitude bands from 90° S to 90° N and from 10 to 50 km in steps of 1 km covering the period from October 1984 to July 2016. This newly created dataset is used for evaluating ozone trends in the stratosphere through multiple linear regression. Negative ozone trends in the upper stratosphere are observed before 1997 and positive trends are found after 1997. The upper stratospheric trends are statistically significant at midlatitudes and indicate ozone recovery, as expected from the decrease of stratospheric halogens that started in the middle of the 1990s and stratospheric cooling.

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Using Ecological Niche Modelling to Predict Climate Change Responses of Ten Key Fishery Species in Aotearoa New Zealand

10.26686/wgtn.17142788 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

◽

Amber Brooks

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Marine Species ◽

Range Shifts ◽

Climate Scenarios ◽

Niche Modelling ◽

Aotearoa New Zealand ◽

Business As Usual ◽

Fishery Species

The long-term sustainability and security of food sources for an increasing human population will become more challenging as climate change alters growing and harvesting conditions. Significant infrastructure changes could be required to continue to supply food from traditional sources. Fisheries remain the only major protein supply directly harvested from the wild. This likely makes it the most sensitive primary sector to climate change. Overfishing is an additional concern for harvested species. There is a need to anticipate how marine species may respond to climate change to help inform how management might best be prepared for shifting distributions and productivity levels. The most common response of mobile marine species to changes in climate is an alteration of their geographic distributions and/or range shifts. Predicting changes to a species’ range could promote timely development of more sustainable harvest strategies. Additionally, these predictions could reduce potential conflict when different management areas experience increasing or decreasing catches. Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) is a helpful approach for predicting the response of key fishery species to climate change scenarios. The overall aim of this research was to use the maximum entropy method, Maxent, to perform ENM on 10 commercially important fishery species, managed under the Quota management system in Aotearoa (New Zealand). Occurrence data from trawl surveys were used along with climate layers from Bio-ORACLE to estimate the species niche and then predict distributions in four different future climate scenarios, called Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios (RCPS), in both 2050 and 2100. With little consensus over the best settings and way to apply the Maxent method, hundreds of variations were tried for each species, and the best model chosen from trial experimentation. In general, Maxent performed well, with evaluation metrics for best models showing little omission error and good discriminatory ability. There was, however, considerable variation between the different species responses to the future climate scenarios. Consistent with other studies, species able to tolerate sub-tropical or temperate conditions tended to expand southward, while subantarctic species generally contracted within their preferred environment. The increasing emissions or ‘business as usual’ climate change scenario consistently presented the most extreme difference from modern predictions. Northern regions of prediction, where sub-tropical or temperate species increased in probability of presence, were often highly uncertain due to novel conditions in future environments. Southern regions were usually less uncertain. Surface temperature consistently influenced base models more so than any other covariates considered, with the exception of bathymetry. Some predictions showed common areas of relative stability, such as hoki and ling on the southern Chatham Rise, potentially indicating future refugia. The preservation of habitats in the putative refugia may be important for long-term fisheries resilience. Furthermore, most species that showed large predicted declines are currently heavily harvested and managed. Overfishing could compound the effects of climate change and put these fisheries at serious risk of collapse. Identification of potential refugial areas could aid strategy adjustments to fishing practice to help preserve stock viability. Additionally, when some species shift, there are areas where new fisheries may emerge. This study offers a perspective of what future distributions could be like under different climate scenarios. The ENM predicts that the ‘business as usual’ scenario, where ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions continue to rise throughout the century, will have a negative impact on multiple aspects of distribution. However, in a reduced emissions scenario, less extreme range shifts are predicted. This study has provided a predictive approach to how fisheries in Aotearoa might change. The next step is to determine whether there is any evidence for the beginning of these changes and to consider how fisheries might best adapt.

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