Trade Linkages and Crisis Spillovers

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kornkarun Cheewatrakoolpong ◽  
Somprawin Manprasert
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Production Networks ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
Transmission Channels ◽  
International Production ◽  
Direct Trade ◽  
The U.S

Many empirical studies find little evidence to support trade linkages as a channel for crisis spillovers during the 2008–09 global financial crisis, although trade linkages were one of the most important crisis transmission channels during 1971–97. A reason that may explain why trade linkages play a less important role in recent years is the changing composition of trade. In particular, the increasing formation of international production networks implies that trade increasingly involves indirect trade linkages. As a result, direct trade statistics may fail to accurately to capture the total trade exposure. In our study, we estimate total trade linkages by including indirect trade linkages obtained from the construction of a trade matrix. When we account for indirect trade linkages, we find that export dependency on the U.S. market still helps to explain crisis severity for developed countries.

Global Financial Crisis and Its Impact on Russia

2009 ◽  
pp. 9-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kudrin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Russian Government ◽  
The Real

The article examines the causes of origin and manifestation of the current global financial crisis and the policies adopted in developed countries in 2007—2008 to deal with it. It considers the effects of the financial crisis on Russia’s economy and monetary policy of the Central Bank in the current conditions as well as the main guidelines for the fiscal policy under different energy prices. The measures for fighting the crisis that the Russian government and the Central Bank use to support the real economy are described.

scholarly journals The structural characteristics of world trade and the merchandise exports of Serbia

2009 ◽  
Vol 54 (181) ◽  
pp. 55-91
Author(s):  
Radovan Kovacevic
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
World Trade ◽  
New Technologies ◽  
Structural Characteristics ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Production Networks ◽  
International Production ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Merchandise Trade

This paper analyses the world merchandise trade structure and the structure of Serbian merchandise exports. The analysis shows that the prominent characteristic of post-World War II world trade is more dynamic growth in the volume of manufactured goods as compared to agricultural goods. Due to the lessening share of agricultural products world merchandise trade has decreased and rapid industrialization has been fostered in developing countries. An increased share for developing countries followed the developed countries' decreasing share in world manufacturing trade. The developing countries' increased share was strongest in telecom and office equipment exports. These sectors are characterized by production fragmentation, which is being realized by transnational companies. Serbia, like the other South East European countries, has not yet managed to significantly integrate into international production networks. Serbia's most important exports are manufactured products with a low level of added value . In addition, Serbia still has a high share of primary products in its exports. A higher share of exports of goods and services in the gross domestic products (GDP) cannot be achieved without increasing imports of new technologies and equipment, i.e. without a higher investment share of the GDP. The main conclusion of this article is that the creation of a favorable investment climate and an increase in Serbia's international credit rating are the preconditions for stronger foreign direct investment (FDI), which would be the main channel for restructuring in the real sector. Creation of new small and medium enterprises (SMEs) through greenfield investment and their integration into the international production networks is the starting point for the restructuring of Serbian industrial production and merchandise export, i.e. the way of increasing the share of merchandise exports in the GDP.

Dating Banking and Currency Crises in Turkey, 1990-2014

2016 ◽  
pp. 240-273
Author(s):  
Ali Ari ◽  
Raif Cergibozan ◽  
Sedat Demir
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Banking Crisis ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

The last two decades characterized by financial crisis episodes have seen a proliferation of empirical studies. These early warning system models allowed researchers to distinguish certain key determinants of financial crises, and helped predicting and preventing the occurrence of some crises. However, crises continue to arise as recently illustrated by the onset of the global financial crisis. This clarifies that there are still a lot to learn about financial crises. In this sense, this paper aimed to compare the performance of several currency and banking crisis indicators within the Turkish economy which underwent severe financial crises in the last twenty years. Different currency crisis indicators performed well by detecting the 1994, 2001 and 2008 currency crises, while banking crisis indicators had significant inconsistencies. However, two banking crisis indicators we developed stand for valuable efforts in dating banking crises by constructing aggregate indexes, and contribute significantly to the empirical crisis literature.

scholarly journals Age, period, and cohort effects on infectious disease mortality in Korea, 1983-2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
H-S Kim ◽  
S J Eun
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Cohort Effects ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Disease Mortality

Abstract Background Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death worldwide, and constitute a significant burden of disease, even in developed countries including Korea. Although different ages, periods, and cohorts may affect mortality, few studies analyzed the epidemiologic pattern of infectious disease mortality considering these effects. This study aimed to estimate the age-period-cohort effects on infectious disease mortality in Korea. Methods The national death certificate and census mid-year population estimates data from 1983 to 2017 were categorized into 5-year age groups and 5-year periods. Infant deaths were excluded due to incomplete data. Intrinsic estimator regression models were fitted to estimate age-period-cohort effects on infectious disease mortality. Results A J-shaped age effect declined from age 1-4 years (intrinsic estimator coefficient [IEC] 0.68; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.52, 0.85), the lowest at age 20-24 years (IEC -1.68; 95% CI -1.85, -1.51), and then increased with age. The declining trend of period effects was slowed down in 1998-2002 (after the 1997-1998 Asian economic crisis), and turned to an upward trend from 2008-2012 (after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis). The cohort effect increased from the earliest cohort born before 1905 (IEC -1.17, 95% CI -1.35, -0.98), peaked in the 1941-1945 cohort (IEC 1.20, 95% CI 1.10, 1.29), then plateaued out (IEC ranged from 0.93 to 1.10), and has continued to decline since the 1966-1970 cohort in which rapid economic growth began. Conclusions There were clear age, period, and cohort effects on infectious disease mortality in Korea. Through the period and cohort effects, the economic downturn and upturn might have increased or reduced infectious disease mortality, respectively. Recent upward trend in infectious disease mortality after the 2008-2009 financial crisis suggests a need to strengthen prevention and control of infectious diseases. Key messages It is important to consider age-period-cohort effects in identifying the epidemiologic pattern of infectious disease mortality trend and finding its underlying drivers. Economic cycle might have influenced infectious disease mortality through period and cohort effects.

scholarly journals Economic crises and suicides between 1970 and 2011: time trend study in 21 developed countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 73 (4) ◽  
pp. 311-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanna Huikari ◽  
Jouko Miettunen ◽  
Marko Korhonen
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Suicide Mortality ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Market Crashes ◽  
Economic Recessions

BackgroundExisting research on the relationship between economic recessions and suicides has almost completely concentrated on the most recent global financial crisis (2008). We provide the most comprehensive explanation to date of how different types of economic/financial crises since 1970 have affected suicides in developed countries.MethodsNegative binomial regressions were used to estimate what the suicide rates would have been during and 1 year after each crisis began in 21 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries from 1970 to 2011 if the suicide rates had followed the pre-crisis trends.ResultsWe found that every economic/financial crisis since 1970, except the European Exchange Rate Mechanism crisis in 1992, led to excess suicides in developed countries. Among males, the excess suicide rate (per 100 000 persons) varied from 1.1 (95% CI 0.7 to 1.5) to 9.5 (7.6 to 11.2) and, among females, from 0 to 2.4 (1.9 to 2.9). For both sexes, suicides increased mostly due to stock market crashes and banking crises. In terms of actual numbers, the post-1969 economic/financial crises caused >60 000 excess suicides in the 21 developed countries. The Asian financial crisis in 1997 was the most damaging crisis when assessed based on excess suicides.ConclusionsEvidence indicates that, when considered in terms of effects on suicide mortality, the most recent global financial crisis is not particularly severe compared with previous global economic/financial crises. The distinct types of crises (ie, banking, currency and inflation crises, and stock market crashes) have different effects on suicide.

scholarly journals Production Networks and Trade Patterns in East Asia: Regionalization or Globalization?

2011 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prema-chandra Athukorala
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Trade Flows ◽  
Production Networks ◽  
Trade Patterns ◽  
Republic Of China ◽  
Final Assembly ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

This paper examines the implications of global production sharing for economic integration in East Asia with emphasis on the behavior of trade flows in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis. Although trade in parts and components and final assembly within production networks (“network trade”) has generally grown faster than total world trade in manufacturing, the degree of dependence of East Asia on this new form of international specialization is proportionately larger than elsewhere in the world. Network trade has certainly strengthened economic interdependence among countries in the region with the People's Republic of China playing a pivotal role as the premier center of final assembly. However, contrary to popular belief, this has not lessened the dependence of the export dynamism of these countries on the global economy. This inference is basically consistent with the behavior of trade flows following the onset of the global financial crisis.

Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (126) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Laseen ◽  
Marzie Taheri Sanjani ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
The U.S
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