scholarly journals Valvular Calcific Deposits and Mortality in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: A Propensity Score-Matched Cohort Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Aiwen Shen ◽  
Linsen Jiang ◽  
Yunhuan Tian ◽  
Ying Lu ◽  
Zhi Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Disease ◽  
Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
Propensity Score ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Valve Calcification ◽  
Technique Survival ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Calcific Deposits

<b><i>Objective:</i></b> This study aimed to compare mortality between peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients with and without cardiac valve calcification (CVC). <b><i>Methods:</i></b> Patients undergoing PD at the dialysis center of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from January 1, 2009, to June 31, 2016, were included and followed through December 31, 2018. The inclusion criteria were (1) age ≥18 years and (2) PD vintage ≥1 month. The exclusion criteria were (1) a history of hemodialysis or renal transplantation before PD; (2) diagnosed congenital heart disease, rheumatic heart disease, or hyperthyroid heart disease; and (3) loss to follow-up. Differences in mortality rates were compared using a Fine-Gray proportional hazards model. <b><i>Results:</i></b> A total of 310 patient cases were included in this study, including 237 cases without CVC (non-CVC group). The CVC group included 59 cases with aortic valve calcification (AVC), 6 cases with mitral valve calcification (MVC), and 8 cases of AVC associated with MVC. After propensity score matching, 68 pairs were selected. The multivariate competing risk regression analysis revealed that age (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.06, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.03–1.10, <i>p</i> &#x3c; 0.001) and CVC group (HR: 1.83, 95% CI: 1.04–3.20, <i>p</i> &#x3c; 0.05) were independent risk factors associated with mortality. No significant difference was observed in technique survival between the 2 groups. <b><i>Conclusion:</i></b> CVC is an independent risk factor for mortality in PD patients.

Patient and Technique Survival and Factors Affecting Mortality on Peritoneal Dialysis in Turkey: 12 Years’ Experience in a Single Center

2008 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 238-245 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Hayri Sipahioglu ◽  
Aysun Aybal ◽  
Aydin Ünal ◽  
Bulent Tokgoz ◽  
Oktay Oymak ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Peritoneal Dialysis ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Technique Survival ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Kaplan Meier ◽  
Technique Failure

Background We investigated patient and technique survival and factors affecting mortality in Turkish peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. Patients and Methods This was a retrospective study. 423 PD patients were included. The demographic, clinical, and biochemical data were collected from the medical records. Clinical outcomes were mortality and technique failure. Results Mean age at the start of PD was 46.0 ± 14.3 years and mean PD duration was 37.1 ± 28.3 (median: 30, range: 4 – 137) months. Diabetes mellitus was the most common cause of end-stage renal disease (35.2%), followed by hypertension (14.7%). There were 89 (21.0%) deaths. 25 (5.9%) patients received a kidney transplant, 74 (17.4%) patients were transferred to hemodialysis. Estimation of technique survival by Kaplan–Meier was 96.1%, 83.2%, 67.6%, 45.8%, and 33.6% at 1, 3, 5, 8, and 10 years. Technique failure was associated with peritonitis rate [relative risk (RR): 3.22, p < 0.001] and peritoneal Kt/V urea (RR: 0.38, p = 0.001) in the Cox proportional hazards model analysis. Estimation of patient survival by Kaplan–Meier was 96.9%, 83.8%, 68.8%, 50.2%, and 40.7% at 1, 3, 5, 8, and 10 years, respectively. In the Cox proportional hazards model analysis, age (RR: 1.01, p = 0.05), transfer to PD from hemodialysis (RR: 1.84, p = 0.03), comorbid cardiovascular disease (RR: 1.90, p = 0.004), serum creatinine level (RR: 0.75, p < 0.001), total Kt/V urea (RR: 0.34, p < 0.001), peritonitis rate (RR: 1.87, p < 0.001), and dialysate-to-plasma creatinine ratio (RR: 6.49, p = 0.04) predicted mortality. Conclusions Even though we cannot conclude with certainty that survival rates in Turkish patients are better than those in the United States and Europe, our results seem to suggest this and warrant further studies adjusted for more extensive demographic features and comorbidities. The factors affecting mortality in Turkish PD patients are similar to other populations.

scholarly journals Efficacy of treatment with corticosteroids for fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis: a propensity score-matched cohort analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Masaru Ejima ◽  
Tsukasa Okamoto ◽  
Takafumi Suzuki ◽  
Tatsuhiko Anzai ◽  
Kunihiko Takahashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Propensity Score ◽  
Hypersensitivity Pneumonitis ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Corticosteroid Treatment ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Matched Cohort ◽  
Propensity Score Method

Abstract Background Fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (HP) is a chronic interstitial lung disease caused by allergic responses to repeated exposures to a causative antigen. Therapeutic evidence of the use of corticosteroids to treat fibrotic HP remains lacking, although corticosteroids are recognized as a major treatment option. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of corticosteroid treatment in patients with fibrotic HP in a propensity score-matched cohort. Methods A retrospective review of the medical records from 2005 to 2019 in a single center was conducted, and 144 patients with fibrotic HP were identified. Semiquantitative scores for lung abnormalities on HRCT were evaluated. Patients who received (PDN group) and did not receive (non-PDN group) corticosteroid treatment were matched using a propensity score method. Survival rates, serial changes in pulmonary function and annual changes in HRCT scores were compared in the matched cohort. Results In the matched analysis, 30 individuals in the PDN group were matched with 30 individuals in the non-PDN group, the majority of whom had ILD without extensive fibrosis. The survival rate was significantly better in the PDN group (P = 0.032 for the stratified Cox proportional hazards model; HR, 0.250). The absolute changes in FVC at 6, 12, and 24 months from baseline were significantly better in the PDN group. Fewer patients in the PDN group experienced annual deterioration, as reflected in the HRCT score, due to ground-glass attenuation, consolidation, reticulation, traction bronchiectasis and honeycombing. Conclusion We demonstrated that corticosteroids improved survival and slowed fibrotic progression in a matched cohort, the majority of whom had ILD without extensive fibrosis. Fibrotic HP with less severe fibrosis may benefit from corticosteroid treatment. We propose that the early initiation of corticosteroids should be considered for fibrotic HP when worsening fibrosis is observed.

scholarly journals A foci cohort analysis to monitor successful and persistent foci under Thailand’s Malaria Elimination Strategy

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Prayuth Sudathip ◽  
Suravadee Kitchakarn ◽  
Jui A. Shah ◽  
Donal Bisanzio ◽  
Felicity Young ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Malaria Elimination ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Forest Disturbance ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Malaria Burden ◽  
Hazards Model ◽  
Autochthonous Transmission

Abstract Background Thailand’s success in reducing malaria burden is built on the efficient “1-3-7” strategy applied to the surveillance system. The strategy is based on rapid case notification within 1 day, case investigation within 3 days, and targeted foci response to reduce the spread of Plasmodium spp. within 7 days. Autochthonous transmission is still occurring in the country, threatening the goal of reaching malaria-free status by 2024. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of the 1-3-7 strategy and identify factors associated with presence of active foci. Methods Data from the national malaria information system were extracted from fiscal years 2013 to 2019; after data cleaning, the final dataset included 81,012 foci. A Cox’s proportional hazards model was built to investigate factors linked with the probability of becoming an active focus from 2015 to 2019 among foci that changed status from non-active to active focus during the study period. We performed a model selection technique based on the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). Results The number of yearly active foci decreased from 2227 to 2013 to 700 in 2019 (68.5 %), and the number of autochthonous cases declined from 17,553 to 3,787 (78.4 %). The best Cox’s hazard model showed that foci in which vector control interventions were required were 18 % more likely to become an active focus. Increasing compliance with the 1-3-7 strategy had a protective effect, with a 22 % risk reduction among foci with over 80 % adherence to 1-3-7 timeliness protocols. Other factors associated with likelihood to become or remain an active focus include previous classification as an active focus, presence of Plasmodium falciparum infections, level of forest disturbance, and location in border provinces. Conclusions These results identified factors that favored regression of non-active foci to active foci during the study period. The model and relative risk map align with the national malaria program’s district stratification and shows strong spatial heterogeneity, with high probability to record active foci in border provinces. The results of the study may be useful for honing Thailand’s program to eliminate malaria and for other countries aiming to accelerate malaria elimination.

Effect of chest-compression-only bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation on the likelihood of initial shockable rhythm after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a propensity matching analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Funada ◽  
Y Goto ◽  
T Maeda ◽  
H Okada ◽  
M Takamura
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Arrest ◽  
Chest Compression ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Shockable Rhythm ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Bystander Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation ◽  
Bystander Cpr

Abstract Background/Introduction Shockable rhythm after cardiac arrest is highly expected after early initiation of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) owing to increased coronary perfusion. However, the relationship between bystander CPR and initial shockable rhythm in patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) remains unclear. We hypothesized that chest-compression-only CPR (CC-CPR) before emergency medical service (EMS) arrival has an equivalent effect on the likelihood of initial shockable rhythm to the standard CPR (chest compression plus rescue breathing [S-CPR]). Purpose We aimed to examine the rate of initial shockable rhythm and 1-month outcomes in patients who received bystander CPR after OHCA. Methods The study included 59,688 patients (age, ≥18 years) who received bystander CPR after an OHCA with a presumed cardiac origin witnessed by a layperson in a prospectively recorded Japanese nationwide Utstein-style database from 2013 to 2017. Patients who received public-access defibrillation before arrival of the EMS personnel were excluded. The patients were divided into CC-CPR (n=51,520) and S-CPR (n=8168) groups according to the type of bystander CPR received. The primary end point was initial shockable rhythm recorded by the EMS personnel just after arrival at the site. The secondary end point was the 1-month outcomes (survival and neurologically intact survival) after OHCA. In the statistical analyses, a Cox proportional hazards model was applied to reflect the different bystander CPR durations before/after propensity score (PS) matching. Results The crude rate of the initial shockable rhythm in the CC-CPR group (21.3%, 10,946/51,520) was significantly higher than that in the S-CPR group (17.6%, 1441/8168, p&lt;0.0001) before PS matching. However, no significant difference in the rate of initial shockable rhythm was found between the 2 groups after PS matching (18.3% [1493/8168] vs 17.6% [1441/8168], p=0.30). In the Cox proportional hazards model, CC-CPR was more negatively associated with the initial shockable rhythm before PS matching (unadjusted hazards ratio [HR], 0.97; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94–0.99; p=0.012; adjusted HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.89–0.94; p&lt;0.0001) than S-CPR. After PS matching, however, no significant difference was found between the 2 groups (adjusted HR of CC-CPR compared with S-CPR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.94–1.00; p=0.09). No significant differences were found between C-CPR and S-CPR in the 1-month outcomes after PS matching as follows, respectively: survival, 8.5% and 10.1%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.79–1.00; p=0.07; cerebral performance category 1 or 2, 5.5% and 6.9%; adjusted odds, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.74–1.00; p=0.052. Conclusions Compared with S-CPR, the CC-CPR before EMS arrival had an equivalent multivariable-adjusted association with the likelihood of initial shockable rhythm in the patients with OHCA due to presumed cardiac causes that was witnessed by a layperson. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None

scholarly journals Ampicillin-Ceftriaxone vs Ampicillin-Gentamicin for Definitive Therapy of Enterococcus faecalis Infective Endocarditis: A Propensity Score–Matched, Retrospective Cohort Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Niyati H Shah ◽  
Kathleen A Shutt ◽  
Yohei Doi
Keyword(s):  
Infective Endocarditis ◽  
Propensity Score ◽  
Adverse Events ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Hospital Readmissions ◽  
Length Of Hospital Stay ◽  
The United States ◽  
Aminoglycoside Resistance ◽  
Definitive Therapy ◽  
Significant Difference

Abstract Background Ampicillin-ceftriaxone (AC) has emerged as an alternative antibiotic regimen for enterococcal infective endocarditis (EIE) with reduced toxicity compared with ampicillin-gentamicin (AG), but evidence regarding its success in reducing EIE-associated death in the United States is limited. Methods We conducted a retrospective, propensity score–matched cohort analysis of EIE patients treated with AC or AG between 2010 and 2017 at 3 hospitals in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. We assessed all-cause 90-day mortality as the primary outcome and in-hospital mortality, length of hospital stay, hospital readmissions, adverse events, and relapse of bacteremia as the secondary outcomes. Results A total of 190 patients with EIE (100 treated with AC and 90 with AG) were included. Ninety-day mortality was significantly higher with AC than AG (21% vs 8%; P = .02). After propensity score matching, 56 patients in each group remained for the outcomes analysis. Documented aminoglycoside resistance, presence of annular or aortic abscess, and complete pacemaker removal were the significantly different variables between the 2 matched cohorts. We observed no statistically significant difference in 90-day mortality between the 2 treatment groups (11% vs 7%; P = .55). Adverse events were more common in patients treated with AG (25 vs 39; P = .0091), and more patients in the propensity score–matched AG cohort switched antibiotic regimens than in the AC group (10% vs 49%; P &lt; .0001). Conclusions Patients treated with AC demonstrate no significant differences in mortality, treatment failure, or bacteremia relapse compared with AG in a propensity score–matched EIE cohort.

scholarly journals Association of Health Insurance Status with Outcomes of Sepsis in Adult Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 5777
Author(s):  
Gaon-Sorae Wang ◽  
Kyoung-Min You ◽  
You-Hwan Jo ◽  
Hui-Jai Lee ◽  
Jong-Hwan Shin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Insurance ◽  
Propensity Score ◽  
Hospital Mortality ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Adult Patients ◽  
Multivariate Logistic Regression Model ◽  
Insurance Status ◽  
Matched Cohort ◽  
Health Insurance Status ◽  
Significant Difference

(1) Background: Sepsis is a life-threatening disease, and various demographic and socioeconomic factors affect outcomes in sepsis. However, little is known regarding the potential association between health insurance status and outcomes of sepsis in Korea. We evaluated the association of health insurance and clinical outcomes in patients with sepsis. (2) Methods: Prospective cohort data of adult patients with sepsis and septic shock from March 2016 to December 2018 in three hospitals were retrospectively analyzed. We categorized patients into two groups according to their health insurance status: National Health Insurance (NHI) and Medical Aid (MA). The primary end point was in-hospital mortality. The multivariate logistic regression model and propensity score matching were used. (3) Results: Of a total of 2526 eligible patients, 2329 (92.2%) were covered by NHI, and 197 (7.8%) were covered by MA. The MA group had fewer males, more chronic kidney disease, more multiple sources of infection, and more patients with initial lactate > 2 mmol/L. In-hospital, 28-day, and 90-day mortality were not significantly different between the two groups and in-hospital mortality was not different in the subgroup analysis. Furthermore, health insurance status was not independently associated with in-hospital mortality in multivariate analysis and was not associated with survival outcomes in the propensity score-matched cohort. (4) Conclusion: Our propensity score-matched cohort analysis demonstrated that there was no significant difference in in-hospital mortality by health insurance status in patients with sepsis.

Abstract 15567: Residual Cholesterol and Cardiovascular Events in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease Under Different Glucose Metabolism Status

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 142 (Suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian-jun Li ◽  
Yexuan Cao ◽  
Hui-Wen Zhang ◽  
Jing-Lu Jin ◽  
Yan Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Artery Disease ◽  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Glucose Metabolism ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Artery Disease

Introduction: The atherogenicity of residual cholesterol (RC) has been underlined by recent guidelines, which was linked to coronary artery disease (CAD), especially for patients with diabetes mellitus (DM). Hypothesis: This study aimed to examine the prognostic value of plasma RC, clinically presented as triglyceride-rich lipoprotein-cholesterol (TRL-C) or remnant-like lipoprotein particles-cholesterol (RLP-C), in CAD patients with different glucose metabolism status. Methods: Fasting plasma TRL-C and RLP-C levels were directly calculated or measured in 4331 patients with CAD. Patients were followed for incident MACEs for up to 8.6 years and categorized according to both glucose metabolism status [DM, pre-DM, normal glycaemia regulation (NGR)] and RC levels. Cox proportional hazards model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals. Results: During a mean follow-up of 5.1 years, 541 (12.5%) MACEs occurred. The risk for MACEs was significantly higher in patients with elevated RC levels after adjustment for potential confounders. No significant difference in MACEs was observed between pre-DM and NGR groups (p>0.05). When stratified by status of glucose metabolism and RC levels, highest levels of RLP-C, calculated and measured TRL-C were significant and independent predictors of developing MACEs in pre-DM (HR: 2.10, 1.98, 1.92, respectively; all p<0.05) and DM (HR: 2.25, 2.00, 2.16, respectively; all p<0.05). Conclusions: In this large cohort study with long-term follow-up, data firstly demonstrated that higher RC levels were significantly associated with the worse prognosis in DM and pre-DM patients with CAD, suggesting RC might be a target for patients with impaired glucose metabolism.

scholarly journals Para-Aortic Nodal Radiation in the Definitive Management of Node-Positive Cervical Cancer

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason C. Sanders ◽  
Donald A. Muller ◽  
Sunil W. Dutta ◽  
Taylor J. Corriher ◽  
Kari L. Ring ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cervical Cancer ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Node Positive ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Grade 3 ◽  
Severe Grade

ObjectivesTo investigate the safety and outcomes of elective para-aortic (PA) nodal irradiation utilizing modern treatment techniques for patients with node positive cervical cancer.MethodsPatients with pelvic lymph node positive cervical cancer who received radiation were included. All patients received radiation therapy (RT) to either a traditional pelvic field or an extended field to electively cover the PA nodes. Factors associated with survival were identified using a Cox proportional hazards model, and toxicities between groups were compared with a chi-square test.Results96 patients were identified with a mean follow up of 40 months. The incidence of acute grade ≥ 2 toxicity was 31% in the elective PA nodal RT group and 15% in the pelvic field group (Chi-square p = 0.067. There was no significant difference in rates of grade ≥ 3 acute or late toxicities between the two groups (p&gt;0.05). The KM estimated 5-year OS was not statistically different for those receiving elective PA nodal irradiation compared to a pelvic only field, 54% vs. 73% respectively (log-rank p = 0.11).ConclusionsElective PA nodal RT can safely be delivered utilizing modern planning techniques without a significant increase in severe (grade ≥ 3) acute or late toxicities, at the cost of a possible small increase in non-severe (grade 2) acute toxicities. In this series there was no survival benefit observed with the receipt of elective PA nodal RT, however, this benefit may have been obscured by the higher risk features of this population. While prospective randomized trials utilizing a risk adapted approach to elective PA nodal coverage are the only way to fully evaluate the benefit of elective PA nodal coverage, these trials are unlikely to be performed and instead we must rely on interpretation of results of risk adapted approaches like those used in ongoing clinical trials and retrospective data.

scholarly journals Cancer cells invasion to the gastric bare area adipose tissue: a poor prognostic predictor for gastric cancer

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongming Chen ◽  
Shuhang Xu ◽  
Chunyu Huang ◽  
Yihong Ling ◽  
Chengcai Liang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Radical Surgery ◽  
Hematogenous Metastasis ◽  
Rank Test ◽  
Cancer Center ◽  
Distal Stomach ◽  
Bare Area ◽  
Significant Difference

Abstract Background: The relationship between gastric bare area adipose tissues invasion (GBAI) confirmed pathologically and the prognosis of gastric cancer (GC) patients is undefined. Till present, there hasn’t been literature investigating this phenomenon. Here, we aimed at analyzing the implication of GBAI in GC. Methods: The data of 1822 patients who underwent radical surgery between January 2000 and December 2013 at the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center were retrieved. Pathologically, tumor deposits (TDs) located >5mm from the leading edge of the primary tumor and the lymph nodes (LNs) station number 1, 2, 7, and 9 were considered as GBAI. Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test and Cox’s proportional hazards model were employed to analyze. Results: 205 (11.3%) patients were pathologically diagnosed with GBAI, which was more commonly found in proximal or linitis lastica than distal GC (P<0.001). There was significant difference in 5-year survival between patients with and without GBAI for stages IIB, IIIA, IIIB, IIIC, respectively (P<0.009 for IIB, IIIA and IIIB, P=0.021 for IIIC). Among the 205 GBAI patients, 61 had detailed radiological follow-up data in which 26 (34.7%) were found to have retroperitoneal infiltration, 27 (36.0%) had peritoneal metastasis, 10 (13.3%) had hematogenous metastasis, 16 (21.3%) had lymphatic metastasis, and 16 (21.3%) had others. Conclusions: GBAI was identified as a predictor of unfavourable prognosis for GC and was more commonly found in the proximal or linitis plastica of the stomach than in distal stomach. Retroperitoneal infiltration was one of the most commonly identified metastatic route for GC associated with GBAI after radical surgery.

scholarly journals Associations between SARS-CoV-2 variants and risk of COVID-19 hospitalization among confirmed cases in Washington State: a retrospective cohort study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel I. Paredes ◽  
Stephanie Lunn ◽  
Michael Famulare ◽  
Lauren A. Frisbie ◽  
Ian Painter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Retrospective Cohort Study ◽  
Retrospective Cohort ◽  
Proportional Hazards ◽  
Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards ◽  
Sentinel Surveillance ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Ancestral Lineage ◽  
Significant Difference

Background: The COVID–19 pandemic is now dominated by variant lineages; the resulting impact on disease severity remains unclear. Using a retrospective cohort study, we assessed the risk of hospitalization following infection with nine variants of concern or interest (VOC/VOI). Methods: Our study includes individuals with positive SARS–CoV–2 RT PCR in the Washington Disease Reporting System and with available viral genome data, from December 1, 2020 to July 30, 2021. The main analysis was restricted to cases with specimens collected through sentinel surveillance. Using a Cox proportional hazards model with mixed effects, we estimated hazard ratios (HR) for the risk of hospitalization following infection with a VOC/VOI, adjusting for age, sex, and vaccination status. Findings: Of the 27,814 cases, 23,170 (83.3%) were sequenced through sentinel surveillance, of which 726 (3.1%) were hospitalized due to COVID–19. Higher hospitalization risk was found for infections with Gamma (HR 3.17, 95% CI 2.15–4.67), Beta (HR: 2.97, 95% CI 1.65–5.35), Delta (HR: 2.30, 95% CI 1.69–3.15), and Alpha (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.26–1.99) compared to infections with an ancestral lineage. Following VOC infection, unvaccinated patients show a similar higher hospitalization risk, while vaccinated patients show no significant difference in risk, both when compared to unvaccinated, ancestral lineage cases. Interpretation: Infection with a VOC results in a higher hospitalization risk, with an active vaccination attenuating that risk. Our findings support promoting hospital preparedness, vaccination, and robust genomic surveillance.

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