Performance of the Surprise Question Compared to Prediction Models in Hemodialysis Patients: A Prospective Study

2017 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 390-396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rakesh Malhotra ◽  
Xia Tao ◽  
Yuedong Wang ◽  
Yuqi Chen ◽  
Rebecca H. Apruzzese ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Clinical Laboratory ◽  
Mortality Prediction ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Dialysis Treatment ◽  
Mortality Probability ◽  
A Prospective Study ◽  
Surprise Question

Background: The surprise question (SQ) (“Would you be surprised if this patient were still alive in 6 or 12 months?”) is used as a mortality prognostication tool in hemodialysis (HD) patients. We compared the performance of the SQ with that of prediction models (PMs) for 6- and 12-month mortality prediction. Methods: Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and dialysis treatment indicators were used to model 6- and 12-month mortality probability in a HD patients training cohort (n = 6,633) using generalized linear models (GLMs). A total of 10 nephrologists from 5 HD clinics responded to the SQ in 215 patients followed prospectively for 12 months. The performance of PM was evaluated in the validation (n = 6,634) and SQ cohorts (n = 215) using the areas under receiver operating characteristics curves. We compared sensitivities and specificities of PM and SQ. Results: The PM and SQ cohorts comprised 13,267 (mean age 61 years, 55% men, 54% whites) and 215 (mean age 62 years, 59% men, 50% whites) patients, respectively. During the 12-month follow-up, 1,313 patients died in the prediction model cohort and 22 in the SQ cohort. For 6-month mortality prediction, the GLM had areas under the curve of 0.77 in the validation cohort and 0.77 in the SQ cohort. As for 12-month mortality, areas under the curve were 0.77 and 0.80 in the validation and SQ cohorts, respectively. The 6- and 12-month PMs had sensitivities of 0.62 (95% CI 0.35–0.88) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.56–0.94), respectively. The 6- and 12-month SQ sensitivities were 0.23 (95% CI 0.002–0.46) and 0.35 (95% CI 0.14–0.56), respectively. Conclusion: PMs exhibit superior sensitivity compared to the SQ for mortality prognostication in HD patients.

scholarly journals Predictive values of multiple serum biomarkers in women with suspected preeclampsia: a prospective study

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Wang ◽  
Honghai Hu ◽  
Xiaowei Liu ◽  
Shenglong Zhao ◽  
Yuanyuan Zheng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Plasminogen Activator Inhibitor ◽  
Serum Levels ◽  
Serum Markers ◽  
Serum Biomarkers ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Serum Samples ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
A Prospective Study ◽  
Activator Inhibitor

Abstract Background: Preeclampsia prediction improves maternal and fetal outcomes in pregnancy. We aimed to evaluate the preeclampsia prediction values of a series of serum biomarkers. Methods: Singleton pregnant women with preeclampsia-related clinical and/or laboratory presentations were recruited and had blood drawn at their first visits. The prospective cohort was further divided into preeclampsia-positive and preeclampsia-negative groups based on the follow-up results. The following markers were tested using the collected serum samples: soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 ( sFlt-1); placental growth factor (PlGF); thrombomodulin (TM); tissue plasminogen activator inhibitor complex (tPAI-C); compliment factors C1q, B, and H; glycosylated fibronectin (GlyFn); pregnancy-associated plasma protein-A2 ( PAPP-A2); blood urea nitrogen (BUN); creatinine (Cre); uric acid (UA); and cystatin C (Cysc). Results: A total of 196 women with suspected preeclampsia were recruited with follow-up medical records. Twenty-five percent (n=49) of the recruited subjects developed preeclampsia before delivery, and 75% remained preeclampsia-negative (n=147). The serum levels of sFlt-1, BUN, Cre, UA, Cysc and PAPP-A2 were significantly elevated, and the PlGF level was significantly decreased in the preeclampsia-positive patients. In the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analyses, the area under the curves were listed in the order of decreasing values: 0.73 (UA), 0.67 (sFlt-1/PlGF), 0.66 (Cysc), 0.65 (GlyFn/PlGF), 0.64 (PAPP-A2/PlGF), 0.63 (BUN), 0.63 (Cre), and 0.60 (PAPP-A2). With the cut-off values obtained from the ROC analyses, the positive predictive values of these serum markers were between 33.1% and 58.5%, and the negative predictive values were between 80.9% and 89.5%. Conclusions: Further studies are warranted to confirm the clinical utilities of the serum markers in preeclampsia prediction

scholarly journals Validation and modification of existing mortality prediction models for lower gastrointestinal bleeding: a retrospective study

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Seok Lee ◽  
Hee Seok Moon ◽  
In Sun Kwon ◽  
Hyun Yong Jeong ◽  
Byung Seok Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Study ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Gastrointestinal Bleeding ◽  
Scoring System ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Medical Intervention ◽  
Mortality Prediction ◽  
Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Related Mortality

Abstract Background Lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB) often subsides without medical intervention; however, in some cases, the bleeding does not stop and the patient’s condition worsens. Therefore, predicting severe LGIB in advance can aid treatment. This study aimed to evaluate variables related to mortality from LGIB and propose a scoring system. Methods In this retrospective study, we reviewed the medical records of patients who visited the emergency room with hematochezia between January 2016 and December 2020. Through regression analysis of comorbidities, medications, vital signs, laboratory investigations, and duration of hospital stay, variables related to LGIB-related mortality were evaluated. A scoring system was developed and the appropriateness with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) was evaluated and compared with other existing models. Results A total of 932 patients were hospitalized for LGIB. Variables associated with LGIB-related mortality were the presence of cancer, heart rate > 100 beats/min, blood urea nitrogen level ≥ 30 mg/dL, an international normalized ratio > 1.50, and albumin level ≤ 3.0 g/dL. The AUROCs of the models CNUH-4 and CNUH-5 were 0.890 (p < 0.001; cutoff, 2.5; 95% confidence interval, 0.0851–0.929) and 0.901 (p < 0.001; cutoff, 3.5; 95% confidence interval, 0.869–0.933), respectively. Conclusions The model developed for predicting the risk of LGIB-related mortality is simple and easy to apply clinically. The AUROC of the model was better than that of the existing models.

scholarly journals Predicting mortality in intensive care patients with acute renal failure treated with dialysis.

1997 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-117
Author(s):  
C E Douma ◽  
W K Redekop ◽  
J H van der Meulen ◽  
R W van Olden ◽  
J Haeck ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Renal Failure ◽  
Acute Renal Failure ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Mortality Prediction ◽  
Dialysis Treatment ◽  
Apache Iii ◽  
Mortality Prediction Models

Existing prognostic methods were compared in their ability to predict mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients on dialysis for acute renal failure (ARF). The clinical goal of this study was to determine whether these models could identify a group of patients where dialysis would provide no benefit because of a near 100% certainty of death even with dialysis treatment. This retrospective cohort study included 238 adult patients who received a first dialysis treatment for ARF in the ICU. This study examined the performance of seven general ICU mortality prediction models and four mortality prediction models developed for patients with ARF. These models were assessed for their ability to discriminate mortality form survival and for their ability to calibrate the observed mortality rate with the expected mortality rate. The observed in hospital mortality was 76% for our patient group. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.50 to 0.78. With the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III and the Liano models, the observed mortality in the highest quintiles of risk were 97% and 98%. In conclusion, although none of the models examined in this study showed excellent discrimination between those patients who died in hospital and those who did not, some models (APACHE III, Liano) were able to identify a group of patients with a near 100% chance of mortality. This indicates that these models may have some use in supporting the decision not to initiate dialysis in a subgroup of patients.

Intraoperative Cholangiography Can Be Safely Omitted during Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy: A Prospective Study of 413 Consecutive Patients

2005 ◽  
Vol 94 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-200 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. Lepner ◽  
V. Grünthal
Keyword(s):  
Laparoscopic Cholecystectomy ◽  
Prospective Study ◽  
Clinical Laboratory ◽  
Open Cholecystectomy ◽  
Gallstone Disease ◽  
Intraoperative Cholangiography ◽  
Biliary Duct ◽  
Cbd Stones ◽  
A Prospective Study

Background and Aims: The aim of the study was to show that laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) can be performed safely without intraoperative cholangiography (IOC). Material and Methods: We conducted a prospective study of 413 consecutive patients with symptomatic gallstone disease, who underwent LC. According to the preoperative clinical, laboratory and ultrasound criteria, 38 patients (9.2 %) were selected for preoperative endoscopic retrograde cholangiography (ERC). All patients were followed postoperatively for symptoms and signs of common bile duct (CBD) stones. Results: Preoperative ERC allowed to make a diagnosis of choledocholithiasis in 22 (58 %) of the 38 selected patients. Stone clearance was achieved with endoscopic sphincterotomy (ES) in all cases. Three patients (7.9 %) had an episode of mild self-limited pancreatitis after the procedure. Eight patients (1.9 %) of 413 required conversion from LC to open cholecystectomy. There were no CBD injuries and no death cases. Of the postoperative complications, 1.5 % were recorded during hospital stay. During the follow-up period, for at least 2 years after surgery, retained CBD stones were verified in 6 patients (1.5 %); however, the supposed rate of residual stones was 2.4 %. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that performance of selective preoperative ERC with ES when necessary, followed by LC, is an appropriate and safe approach to the treatment of patients with cholecystolithiasis and unsuspected choledocholithiasis. This approach allows to omit IOC and to perform LC safely without biliary duct injuries, ensuring low rate of retained CBD stones in the late follow-up period.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Clinical and Follow-up Results of Patients with Congenital Nephrotic Syndrome

2021 ◽  
pp. 97-100
Author(s):  
Hülya Nalçacıoğlu ◽  
Demet Tekcan ◽  
Hülya Gözde Önal ◽  
Özlem Aydoğ
Keyword(s):  
Nephrotic Syndrome ◽  
Clinical Laboratory ◽  
Congenital Nephrotic Syndrome ◽  
Homozygous Mutation ◽  
Dialysis Treatment ◽  
Filtration Barrier ◽  
Management Of Complications ◽  
Genes Encoding ◽  
History Of

Congenital nephrotic syndrome (CNS) is characterized by severe proteinuria, hypoalbuminemia, and edema within the first three months of life. Congenital nephrotic syndrome can occur due to perinatal infections or mutation of genes encoding structural or regulatory proteins of the glomerular filtration barrier. Treatment includes albumin infusions, nephrectomy, dialysis, and transplantation. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the demographic, clinical, and follow-up results of patients with CNS followed up in our center between 2010 and 2020. Demographic, clinical, laboratory values of 8 patients diagnosed with CNS between 2010 and 2020, kidney biopsy results, genetic examinations, and follow-up results were retrospectively evaluated. A total of 8 patients (4 girls) were included in this study. The median age at diagnosis was 36 days (3 days-8 months) and the follow-up period was 34 months (7-114 months). There was a history of prematurity and consanguinity in 5 patients. Edema was detected at the admission of all patients. Albumin infusion and captopril therapy were started from the diagnosis. No pathology was seen in the tests for perinatal infection, and ultrasonographic examinations were normal. In the genetic analysis, NPHS1 (Nephrin) homozygous mutation was detected in six patients, and coenzyme Q2 mutation was detected in one patient. Peritoneal dialysis treatment was performed in four patients during the follow-up, and unilateral nephrectomy was completed in one patient. During the follow-up, four of eight patients (three due to sepsis while on dialysis, one on the postoperative after the first day of transplantation) died. Three patients are followed up with kidney transplantation and one with supportive treatment. According to our results, most CNS cases are genetic, and nephrin mutation is the most common cause. Management of complications in CNS is crucial for patient surviva

scholarly journals Anticoagulation after VA-ECMO decannulation, providing new insights

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Maestro-Benedicto ◽  
A Duran-Cambra ◽  
M Vila-Perales ◽  
J Sans-Rosello ◽  
J Carreras-Mora ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation ◽  
Cardiogenic Shock ◽  
Anticoagulation Therapy ◽  
Thromboembolic Events ◽  
Bleeding Events ◽  
Membrane Oxygenation ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Va Ecmo ◽  
A Prospective Study

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. INTRODUCTION Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) is an essential tool for the management of refractory cardiogenic shock. Little is known about the incidence of thromboembolic events after V-A ECMO decannulation, although some studies report a high incidence of cannula-related venous thrombosis after venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO). Due to this fact, in our institution anticoagulation therapy is systematically prescribed for at least 3 months after VA-ECMO per protocol.  AIM The main objective of this study was to explore the feasibility of 3-month anticoagulation therapy after VA-ECMO decannulation. METHODS We performed a prospective study that included 27 consecutive patients who were successfully treated with VA-ECMO in a medical ICU between 2016 and 2019 and were prescribed 3-month anticoagulation therapy per protocol after decannulation. Exclusion criteria was dying on ECMO or while on the ICU. Data analysis included demographics, mean days on ECMO, 3-month survival, and thromboembolic and bleeding events (excluding immediate post-decannulation bleeding, since anticoagulation was prescribed 24h after). RESULTS Our cohort consisted mainly of men (N = 21, 78%), with a mean age of 60 ± 11 years and a mean time on VA-ECMO of 8 ± 3 days, who primarily suffered from post-cardiotomy cardiogenic shock (N = 9, 34%) or acute myocardial infarction (N = 6, 23%). 5 patients (18%) received a heart transplant. Regarding anticoagulation, 15 patients (60%) had other indications apart from the protocol, like incidental thrombus diagnosis (N = 7, 26%) or valve surgery (N = 5, 18%). Anticoagulation therapy was not feasible in 1 patient (4%) with severe thrombopenia. No patients had severe or life-threatening bleeding events in the follow-up, although 8 patients (30%) had bleeding events, mainly gastrointestinal bleeding (N = 4, 15%), requiring withdrawal of anticoagulation in 1 patient. The incidence of thromboembolic events was 7%; two patients with low-risk pulmonary embolisms. During the 3-month follow-up survival rate was 95%. CONCLUSIONS This is the only study to date addressing the strategy of 3-month anticoagulation therapy after VAECMO, showing it is feasible and safe and may be helpful in reducing or ameliorate thromboembolic complications in the follow-up, although it is not exempt of complications. Abstract Figure. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis

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