scholarly journals Critical Slowing Down as a Personalized Early Warning Signal for Depression

2016 ◽  
Vol 85 (2) ◽  
pp. 114-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marieke Wichers ◽  
Peter C. Groot ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Critical Slowing Down ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Early Warning Signal

scholarly journals Data from ‘Critical Slowing Down as a Personalized Early Warning Signal for Depression’

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jolanda J. Kossakowski ◽  
Peter C. Groot ◽  
Jonas M. B. Haslbeck ◽  
Denny Borsboom ◽  
Marieke Wichers
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Critical Slowing Down ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Early Warning Signal

scholarly journals Slowing down as an early warning signal for abrupt climate change

2008 ◽  
Vol 105 (38) ◽  
pp. 14308-14312 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Dakos ◽  
M. Scheffer ◽  
E. H. van Nes ◽  
V. Brovkin ◽  
V. Petoukhov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Abrupt Climate Change ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Early Warning Signal

scholarly journals Impression Offsetting as an Early Warning Signal of Low CEO Confidence in Acquisitions

2019 ◽  
Vol 62 (5) ◽  
pp. 1307-1332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel L. Gamache ◽  
Gerry McNamara ◽  
Scott D. Graffin ◽  
Jason Kiley ◽  
Jerayr Haleblian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Early Warning Signal

Disturbance cues in freshwater prey fishes: do juvenile convict cichlids and rainbow trout respond to ammonium as an ‘early warning’ signal?

Chemoecology ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 255-261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meaghan A. Vavrek ◽  
Chris K. Elvidge ◽  
Robert DeCaire ◽  
Brenna Belland ◽  
Christopher D. Jackson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rainbow Trout ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Early Warning Signal ◽  
Convict Cichlids ◽  
Disturbance Cues

scholarly journals Early warning signals of malaria resurgence in Kericho, Kenya

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 20190713 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mallory J. Harris ◽  
Simon I. Hay ◽  
John M. Drake
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Disease Incidence ◽  
Critical Slowing Down ◽  
Summary Statistics ◽  
Warning Signals ◽  
Early Warning Signals ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Imported Case

Campaigns to eliminate infectious diseases could be greatly aided by methods for providing early warning signals of resurgence. Theory predicts that as a disease transmission system undergoes a transition from stability at the disease-free equilibrium to sustained transmission, it will exhibit characteristic behaviours known as critical slowing down, referring to the speed at which fluctuations in the number of cases are dampened, for instance the extinction of a local transmission chain after infection from an imported case. These phenomena include increases in several summary statistics, including lag-1 autocorrelation, variance and the first difference of variance. Here, we report the first empirical test of this prediction during the resurgence of malaria in Kericho, Kenya. For 10 summary statistics, we measured the approach to criticality in a rolling window to quantify the size of effect and directions. Nine of the statistics increased as predicted and variance, the first difference of variance, autocovariance, lag-1 autocorrelation and decay time returned early warning signals of critical slowing down based on permutation tests. These results show that time series of disease incidence collected through ordinary surveillance activities may exhibit characteristic signatures prior to an outbreak, a phenomenon that may be quite general among infectious disease systems.

scholarly journals Resilience indicators: prospects and limitations for early warnings of regime shifts

2015 ◽  
Vol 370 (1659) ◽  
pp. 20130263 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasilis Dakos ◽  
Stephen R. Carpenter ◽  
Egbert H. van Nes ◽  
Marten Scheffer
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Temporal Correlation ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Small Perturbations ◽  
Slowing Down ◽  
Critical Transitions ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Resilience Indicators

In the vicinity of tipping points—or more precisely bifurcation points—ecosystems recover slowly from small perturbations. Such slowness may be interpreted as a sign of low resilience in the sense that the ecosystem could easily be tipped through a critical transition into a contrasting state. Indicators of this phenomenon of ‘critical slowing down (CSD)’ include a rise in temporal correlation and variance. Such indicators of CSD can provide an early warning signal of a nearby tipping point. Or, they may offer a possibility to rank reefs, lakes or other ecosystems according to their resilience. The fact that CSD may happen across a wide range of complex ecosystems close to tipping points implies a powerful generality. However, indicators of CSD are not manifested in all cases where regime shifts occur. This is because not all regime shifts are associated with tipping points. Here, we review the exploding literature about this issue to provide guidance on what to expect and what not to expect when it comes to the CSD-based early warning signals for critical transitions.

scholarly journals Flickering as an early warning signal

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vasilis Dakos ◽  
Egbert H. van Nes ◽  
Marten Scheffer
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning Signal ◽  
Early Warning Signal
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