scholarly journals Integration of Interpretive Structural Modeling with Fuzzy Bayesian Network for Risk Assessment of Tunnel Collapse

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Leping He ◽  
Tao Tang ◽  
Qijun Hu ◽  
Qijie Cai ◽  
Zhijun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Making ◽  
Structural Modeling ◽  
Interpretive Structural Modeling ◽  
Construction Risk ◽  
Tunnel Collapse ◽  
The Relationship

Frequent collapse accidents in tunnels are associated with many construction risk factors, and the interrelationship among these risk factors is complex and ambiguous. This study’s aim is to clarify the relationship among risk factors to reduce the tunnel collapse risk. A multicriteria decision-making method is proposed by combining interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN). ISM is used to determine the hierarchical relationships among risk factors. FBN quantitatively analyzes the strength of the interaction among risk factors and conducts risk analysis. The ISM-FBN method contains three steps: (1) drawing the ISM-directed graph; (2) obtaining the probability of the FBN nodes; and (3) using GeNle to implement risk analysis. The proposed method is also used to assess the collapse risk and detect the critical factors in the Canglongxia Tunnel, China. This method’s tunnel collapse risk model can provide managers with clear risk information and better realize project management.

scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Tunnel Water and Mud Inrush Using Interpretive Structural Modeling and Fault Tree

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Han ◽  
Teng Xia ◽  
Maoxin Su ◽  
Yiguo Xue
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Structural Modeling ◽  
Geological Structure ◽  
Geological Hazard ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Interpretive Structural Modeling ◽  
Water And Mud Inrush

Abstract Water and mud inrush is a common geological hazard in tunnel construction. Risk analysis of tunnel water and mud inrush has always been an important subject. In order to avoid the geological hazard, this paper presents a risk analysis model of tunnel water and mud inrush. The model combines the interpretive structural modeling method (ISM) and fault tree analysis (FTA). Relying on the Qinyu tunnel in the Weiwu expressway project, water and mud inrush risk factors are obtained by using ISM. Fundamental risk factors include formation lithology, attitude of stratum, strata combination, topography and geomorphology, geological structure and weather. ISM core risk factors are used as FTA basic events. Fuzzy importance of FTA basic events is obtained by using fuzzy interval calculation. The results show that geological structure is the primary risk factor causing Qinyu tunnel water and mud inrush. The model achieves qualitative and quantitative analysis of tunnel water and mud inrush. It accurately determines the main factors affecting the tunnel water and mud inrush, which is conducive to accident prevention.

Based on the ISM Model of REITs Endowment Property Financing Risk Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 1030-1032 ◽  
pp. 2523-2526
Author(s):  
Hai Min Wei ◽  
Lian Yue
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Financing Risk ◽  
Financing Pattern ◽  
New Form ◽  
The Relationship

Endowment property is prevalent a new form of social endowment in China in recent years, But financing has become one of the bottleneck for its smooth development. In this paper, the author combing the various risk factors of REITs financing pattern, using ISM model to analysis the factors involved in grading evaluation, rendering risk model diagram to explain the structure, resulting the relationship between the various risk factors, clear the direction of risk management

Scenario based evaluation of a cost risk model through sensitivity analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Önder Ökmen ◽  
Ahmet Öztaş
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Cost Evaluation ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Detailed Evaluation ◽  
Cost Risk

Purpose – Actual costs frequently deviate from the estimated costs in either favorable or adverse direction in construction projects. Conventional cost evaluation methods do not take the uncertainty and correlation effects into account. In this regard, a simulation-based cost risk analysis model, the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model, previously has been proposed to evaluate the uncertainty effect on construction costs in case of correlated costs and correlated risk-factors. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the detailed evaluation of the Cost Risk Analysis Model through scenario and sensitivity analyses. Design/methodology/approach – The evaluation process consists of three scenarios with three sensitivity analyses in each and 28 simulations in total. During applications, the model’s important parameter called the mean proportion coefficient is modified and the user-dependent variables like the risk-factor influence degrees are changed to observe the response of the model to these modifications and to examine the indirect, two-sided and qualitative correlation capturing algorithm of the model. Monte Carlo Simulation is also applied on the same data to compare the results. Findings – The findings have shown that the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model is capable of capturing the correlation between the costs and between the risk-factors, and operates in accordance with the theoretical expectancies. Originality/value – Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model can be preferred as a reliable and practical method by the professionals of the construction sector thanks to its detailed evaluation introduced in this paper.

Factors affecting strategic plan implementation using interpretive structural modeling (ISM)

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 406-414 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammadkarim Bahadori ◽  
Ehsan Teymourzadeh ◽  
Hamidreza Tajik ◽  
Ramin Ravangard ◽  
Mehdi Raadabadi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Strategic Planning ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Strategic Plan ◽  
Structural Modeling ◽  
Interpretive Structural Modeling ◽  
Plan Implementation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Strategic Planning Process ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeStrategic planning is the best tool for managers seeking an informed presence and participation in the market without surrendering to changes. Strategic planning enables managers to achieve their organizational goals and objectives. Hospital goals, such as improving service quality and increasing patient satisfaction cannot be achieved if agreed strategies are not implemented. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors affecting strategic plan implementation in one teaching hospital using interpretive structural modeling (ISM).Design/methodology/approachThe authors used a descriptive study involving experts and senior managers; 16 were selected as the study sample using a purposive sampling method. Data were collected using a questionnaire designed and prepared based on previous studies. Data were analyzed using ISM.FindingsFive main factors affected strategic plan implementation. Although all five variables and factors are top level, “senior manager awareness and participation in the strategic planning process” and “creating and maintaining team participation in the strategic planning process” had maximum drive power. “Organizational structure effects on the strategic planning process” and “Organizational culture effects on the strategic planning process” had maximum dependence power.Practical implicationsIdentifying factors affecting strategic plan implementation is a basis for healthcare quality improvement by analyzing the relationship among factors and overcoming the barriers.Originality/valueThe authors used ISM to analyze the relationship between factors affecting strategic plan implementation.

Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and its application in analyzing factors inhibiting implementation of Total Productive Maintenance (TPM)

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 308-331 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prasanth S. Poduval ◽  
V. R. Pramod ◽  
Jagathy Raj V. P.
Keyword(s):  
Action Plan ◽  
Structural Modeling ◽  
Total Productive Maintenance ◽  
Interpretive Structural Modeling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Organization Management ◽  
Inhibiting Factors ◽  
Quality Of Products ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to highlight the application of Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) to analyze the barriers in implementation of Total Productive Maintenance (TPM). TPM is explained in brief with emphasis on maintenance programs to improve quality of products, reliability of processes and reduction in cost. Barriers in implementation of TPM are also discussed. Concept of ISM and steps in developing ISM are described in detail. The authors then illustrate the research methodology which involves applying ISM to analyze barriers in TPM. Design/methodology/approach – The paper starts off by describing the concepts of TPM and ISM. Barriers in implementation of TPM are discussed. It explains ISM as a methodology to understand the underlying interrelationship among the inhibiting factors. The authors draw up an action plan to carry out research on the usage of ISM to study the TPM inhibitors, to develop an integrated model to establish the relationship among the different TPM inhibiting factors and to suggest action plan to mitigate these factors. Findings – Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) can be used to analyze the driving and dependence power of the variables inhibiting implementation of TPM. The barriers to implement TPM are described with detailed explanation. The complexity of the problem and the degree of interconnection among the variables can be found out. This will help Managers take action on mitigating the barriers. Practical implications – By analyzing the interrelationships among the barriers and their strengths, management can chalk out the strategy to implement TPM in an organization. Management will become aware of the barriers which have the maximum influence and then can act accordingly to mitigate these barriers. This will help in implementing TPM faster and in an organized manner. Originality/value – Many authors have used ISM to study various issues. A couple of authors have used ISM to determine barriers in implementation of TPM. The authors feel that most of the papers describe ISM in brief making it slightly difficult for readers to understand. This paper aims to explain elaborately step-by-step on how to develop an ISM making it easier for researchers to understand the ISM concept. Even though there are papers on TPM and difficulties in implementation of TPM, this paper explains the barriers in implementing TPM based on the experience of the corresponding author having worked in the refinery industry.

scholarly journals Risk Quantification and Analysis of Coupled Factors Based on the DEMATEL Model and a Bayesian Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Jiao ◽  
Mengwei Wei ◽  
Yuan Yuan ◽  
Tingdi Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Relationship Matrix ◽  
Industrial Systems ◽  
Large Scale Systems ◽  
Indirect Coupling ◽  
Coupling Characteristic ◽  
The Relationship

With the developing of high integrations in large scale systems, such as aircraft and other industrial systems, there are new challenges in safety analysis due to the complexity of the mission process and the more complicated coupling characteristic of multi-factors. Aiming at the evaluation of coupled factors as well as the risk of the mission, this paper proposes a combined technology based on the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) model and the Bayesian network (BN). After identifying and classifying the risk factors from the perspectives of humans, machines, the environment, and management, the DEMATEL technique is adopted to assess their direct and/or indirect coupling relationships to determine the importance and causality of each factor; moreover, the relationship matrix in the DEMATEL model is used to generate the BN model, including its parameterization. The inverse reasoning theory is then implemented to derive the probability, and the risk of the coupled factors is evaluated by an assessment model integrating the probability and severity. Furthermore, the key risk factors are identified based on the risk radar diagram and the Pareto rule to support the preventive measurements. Finally, an application of the take-off process of aircraft is provided to demonstrate the proposed method.

scholarly journals Presenting a model for evaluating the performance of financial accelerators of companies accepted on the Iranian Stock

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (SPE1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mojtaba Moradpour ◽  
Abbasali Poraghajan ◽  
Mohammadmehdi Abbasian Feredoni
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Method ◽  
Structural Modeling ◽  
Interpretive Structural Modeling ◽  
The Relationship

This study was conducted using a mixed method (qualitative-quantitative) in which 21 variables of the model were extracted in the qualitative section and interviews were conducted with 19 experts and determining the relationship between variables to achieve the model in the quantitative part based on interpretive structural modeling (ISM).

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