scholarly journals A New Hybrid Model for Hourly Solar Radiation Forecasting Using Daily Classification Technique and Machine Learning Algorithms

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Hamza Ali-Ou-Salah ◽  
Benyounes Oukarfi ◽  
Khalid Bahani ◽  
Mohammed Moujabbir
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Photovoltaic Power ◽  
Classification Technique ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Photovoltaic power generation depends significantly on solar radiation, which is variable and unpredictable in nature. As a result, the production of electricity from photovoltaic power cannot be guaranteed permanently during the operational phase. Forecasting global solar radiation can play a key role in overcoming this drawback of intermittency. This paper proposes a new hybrid method based on machine learning (ML) algorithms and daily classification technique to forecast 1 h ahead of global solar radiation in the city of Évora. Firstly, several comparative studies have been done between random forest (RF), gradient boosting (GB), support vector machines (SVM), and artificial neural network (ANN). These comparisons were made using annual, seasonal, and daily testing sets in order to determine the best ML algorithm under different meteorological conditions. Subsequently, the daily classification technique has been applied to classify the original training set into sunny and cloudy training subsets in order to enhance the forecasting accuracy. The evaluation of the proposed ML algorithms was carried out using the normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) and the normalized absolute mean error (nMAE). The results of the seasonal comparison show that the RF model performs well for spring and autumn seasons with nRMSE equaling 22.53% and 23.42%, respectively. While the SVR model gives good results for winter and summer seasons with nRMSE equaling 24.31% and 8.41%, respectively. In addition, the daily comparison demonstrates that the RF model performs well for cloudy days with nRMSE = 41.40%, while the SVR model yields good results for sunny days with nRMSE = 8.88%. The results show that the daily classification technique enhances the forecasting accuracy of ML models. Furthermore, this study demonstrates that the forecasting accuracy of ML algorithms depends significantly on sky conditions.

scholarly journals Prediction of Healing Performance of Autogenous Healing Concrete Using Machine Learning

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (15) ◽  
pp. 4068
Author(s):  
Xu Huang ◽  
Mirna Wasouf ◽  
Jessada Sresakoolchai ◽  
Sakdirat Kaewunruen
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Prediction Performance ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Self Healing ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann

Cracks typically develop in concrete due to shrinkage, loading actions, and weather conditions; and may occur anytime in its life span. Autogenous healing concrete is a type of self-healing concrete that can automatically heal cracks based on physical or chemical reactions in concrete matrix. It is imperative to investigate the healing performance that autogenous healing concrete possesses, to assess the extent of the cracking and to predict the extent of healing. In the research of self-healing concrete, testing the healing performance of concrete in a laboratory is costly, and a mass of instances may be needed to explore reliable concrete design. This study is thus the world’s first to establish six types of machine learning algorithms, which are capable of predicting the healing performance (HP) of self-healing concrete. These algorithms involve an artificial neural network (ANN), a k-nearest neighbours (kNN), a gradient boosting regression (GBR), a decision tree regression (DTR), a support vector regression (SVR) and a random forest (RF). Parameters of these algorithms are tuned utilising grid search algorithm (GSA) and genetic algorithm (GA). The prediction performance indicated by coefficient of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) measures of these algorithms are evaluated on the basis of 1417 data sets from the open literature. The results show that GSA-GBR performs higher prediction performance (R2GSA-GBR = 0.958) and stronger robustness (RMSEGSA-GBR = 0.202) than the other five types of algorithms employed to predict the healing performance of autogenous healing concrete. Therefore, reliable prediction accuracy of the healing performance and efficient assistance on the design of autogenous healing concrete can be achieved.

scholarly journals Industry Experience of Developing Day-Ahead Photovoltaic Plant Forecasting System Based on Machine Learning

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 3420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra I. Khalyasmaa ◽  
Stanislav A. Eroshenko ◽  
Valeriy A. Tashchilin ◽  
Hariprakash Ramachandran ◽  
Teja Piepur Chakravarthi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Solar Irradiation ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Photovoltaic Power ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Industry Experience

This article highlights the industry experience of the development and practical implementation of a short-term photovoltaic forecasting system based on machine learning methods for a real industry-scale photovoltaic power plant implemented in a Russian power system using remote data acquisition. One of the goals of the study is to improve photovoltaic power plants generation forecasting accuracy based on open-source meteorological data, which is provided in regular weather forecasts. In order to improve the robustness of the system in terms of the forecasting accuracy, we apply newly derived feature introduction, a factor obtained as a result of feature engineering procedure, characterizing the relationship between photovoltaic power plant energy production and solar irradiation on a horizontal surface, thus taking into account the impacts of atmospheric and electrical nature. The article scrutinizes the application of different machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest regressor, Gradient Boosting Regressor, Linear Regression and Decision Trees regression, to the remotely obtained data. As a result of the application of the aforementioned approaches together with hyperparameters, tuning and pipelining of the algorithms, the optimal structure, parameters and the application sphere of different regressors were identified for various testing samples. The mathematical model developed within the framework of the study gave us the opportunity to provide robust photovoltaic energy forecasting results with mean accuracy over 92% for mostly-sunny sample days and over 83% for mostly cloudy days with different types of precipitation.

scholarly journals An Interpretable Machine Learning Model for Daily Global Solar Radiation Prediction

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (21) ◽  
pp. 7367
Author(s):  
Mohamed Chaibi ◽  
EL Mahjoub Benghoulam ◽  
Lhoussaine Tarik ◽  
Mohamed Berrada ◽  
Abdellah El Hmaidi
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Global Solar Radiation ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Light Gradient ◽  
Testing Stage

Machine learning (ML) models are commonly used in solar modeling due to their high predictive accuracy. However, the predictions of these models are difficult to explain and trust. This paper aims to demonstrate the utility of two interpretation techniques to explain and improve the predictions of ML models. We compared first the predictive performance of Light Gradient Boosting (LightGBM) with three benchmark models, including multilayer perceptron (MLP), multiple linear regression (MLR), and support-vector regression (SVR), for estimating the global solar radiation (H) in the city of Fez, Morocco. Then, the predictions of the most accurate model were explained by two model-agnostic explanation techniques: permutation feature importance (PFI) and Shapley additive explanations (SHAP). The results indicated that LightGBM (R2 = 0.9377, RMSE = 0.4827 kWh/m2, MAE = 0.3614 kWh/m2) provides similar predictive accuracy as SVR, and outperformed MLP and MLR in the testing stage. Both PFI and SHAP methods showed that extraterrestrial solar radiation (H0) and sunshine duration fraction (SF) are the two most important parameters that affect H estimation. Moreover, the SHAP method established how each feature influences the LightGBM estimations. The predictive accuracy of the LightGBM model was further improved slightly after re-examination of features, where the model combining H0, SF, and RH was better than the model with all features.

scholarly journals Comparison of Ensemble Machine Learning Methods for Soil Erosion Pin Measurements

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Kieu Anh Nguyen ◽  
Walter Chen ◽  
Bor-Shiun Lin ◽  
Uma Seeboonruang
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Soil Erosion ◽  
Ensemble Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Ensemble Machine Learning ◽  
Boosting Method ◽  
Bagging Method

Although machine learning has been extensively used in various fields, it has only recently been applied to soil erosion pin modeling. To improve upon previous methods of quantifying soil erosion based on erosion pin measurements, this study explored the possible application of ensemble machine learning algorithms to the Shihmen Reservoir watershed in northern Taiwan. Three categories of ensemble methods were considered in this study: (a) Bagging, (b) boosting, and (c) stacking. The bagging method in this study refers to bagged multivariate adaptive regression splines (bagged MARS) and random forest (RF), and the boosting method includes Cubist and gradient boosting machine (GBM). Finally, the stacking method is an ensemble method that uses a meta-model to combine the predictions of base models. This study used RF and GBM as the meta-models, decision tree, linear regression, artificial neural network, and support vector machine as the base models. The dataset used in this study was sampled using stratified random sampling to achieve a 70/30 split for the training and test data, and the process was repeated three times. The performance of six ensemble methods in three categories was analyzed based on the average of three attempts. It was found that GBM performed the best among the ensemble models with the lowest root-mean-square error (RMSE = 1.72 mm/year), the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE = 0.54), and the highest index of agreement (d = 0.81). This result was confirmed by the spatial comparison of the absolute differences (errors) between model predictions and observations using GBM and RF in the study area. In summary, the results show that as a group, the bagging method and the boosting method performed equally well, and the stacking method was third for the erosion pin dataset considered in this study.

Prediction and Analysis of Gold Prices using Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithms

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (VI) ◽  
pp. 4367-4374
Author(s):  
Gudipally Chandrashakar
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Ensemble Machine Learning

In this article, we used historical time series data up to the current day gold price. In this study of predicting gold price, we consider few correlating factors like silver price, copper price, standard, and poor’s 500 value, dollar-rupee exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average Value. Considering the prices of every correlating factor and gold price data where dates ranging from 2008 January to 2021 February. Few algorithms of machine learning are used to analyze the time-series data are Random Forest Regression, Support Vector Regressor, Linear Regressor, ExtraTrees Regressor and Gradient boosting Regression. While seeing the results the Extra Tree Regressor algorithm gives the predicted value of gold prices more accurately.

scholarly journals MODIS-FIRMS and ground-truthing based wildfire likelihood mapping of Sikkim Himalaya using machine learning algorithms.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Polash Banerjee
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Tree Cover ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Sikkim Himalaya ◽  
Environmental Features ◽  
Machine Learning Methods

Abstract Wildfires in limited extent and intensity can be a boon for the forest ecosystem. However, recent episodes of wildfires of 2019 in Australia and Brazil are sad reminders of their heavy ecological and economical costs. Understanding the role of environmental factors in the likelihood of wildfires in a spatial context would be instrumental in mitigating it. In this study, 14 environmental features encompassing meteorological, topographical, ecological, in situ and anthropogenic factors have been considered for preparing the wildfire likelihood map of Sikkim Himalaya. A comparative study on the efficiency of machine learning methods like Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting Model (GBM) has been performed to identify the best performing algorithm in wildfire prediction. The study indicates that all the machine learning methods are good at predicting wildfires. However, RF has outperformed, followed by GBM in the prediction. Also, environmental features like average temperature, average wind speed, proximity to roadways and tree cover percentage are the most important determinants of wildfires in Sikkim Himalaya. This study can be considered as a decision support tool for preparedness, efficient resource allocation and sensitization of people towards mitigation of wildfires in Sikkim.

scholarly journals Techniques for Detecting Malware Traffic: A Comprehensive Approach to Feature Selection and Classification

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Harsha A K
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Random Forest ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Malware Detection ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Abstract: Since the advent of encryption, there has been a steady increase in malware being transmitted over encrypted networks. Traditional approaches to detect malware like packet content analysis are inefficient in dealing with encrypted data. In the absence of actual packet contents, we can make use of other features like packet size, arrival time, source and destination addresses and other such metadata to detect malware. Such information can be used to train machine learning classifiers in order to classify malicious and benign packets. In this paper, we offer an efficient malware detection approach using classification algorithms in machine learning such as support vector machine, random forest and extreme gradient boosting. We employ an extensive feature selection process to reduce the dimensionality of the chosen dataset. The dataset is then split into training and testing sets. Machine learning algorithms are trained using the training set. These models are then evaluated against the testing set in order to assess their respective performances. We further attempt to tune the hyper parameters of the algorithms, in order to achieve better results. Random forest and extreme gradient boosting algorithms performed exceptionally well in our experiments, resulting in area under the curve values of 0.9928 and 0.9998 respectively. Our work demonstrates that malware traffic can be effectively classified using conventional machine learning algorithms and also shows the importance of dimensionality reduction in such classification problems. Keywords: Malware Detection, Extreme Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, Feature Selection.

scholarly journals Evaluating Variable Selection and Machine Learning Algorithms for Estimating Forest Heights by Combining Lidar and Hyperspectral Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 507
Author(s):  
Sanjiwana Arjasakusuma ◽  
Sandiaga Swahyu Kusuma ◽  
Stuart Phinn
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Feature Selection ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Hyperspectral Data ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forest Height ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Machine learning has been employed for various mapping and modeling tasks using input variables from different sources of remote sensing data. For feature selection involving high- spatial and spectral dimensionality data, various methods have been developed and incorporated into the machine learning framework to ensure an efficient and optimal computational process. This research aims to assess the accuracy of various feature selection and machine learning methods for estimating forest height using AISA (airborne imaging spectrometer for applications) hyperspectral bands (479 bands) and airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) height metrics (36 metrics), alone and combined. Feature selection and dimensionality reduction using Boruta (BO), principal component analysis (PCA), simulated annealing (SA), and genetic algorithm (GA) in combination with machine learning algorithms such as multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), extra trees (ET), support vector regression (SVR) with radial basis function, and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) with trees (XGbtree and XGBdart) and linear (XGBlin) classifiers were evaluated. The results demonstrated that the combinations of BO-XGBdart and BO-SVR delivered the best model performance for estimating tropical forest height by combining lidar and hyperspectral data, with R2 = 0.53 and RMSE = 1.7 m (18.4% of nRMSE and 0.046 m of bias) for BO-XGBdart and R2 = 0.51 and RMSE = 1.8 m (15.8% of nRMSE and −0.244 m of bias) for BO-SVR. Our study also demonstrated the effectiveness of BO for variables selection; it could reduce 95% of the data to select the 29 most important variables from the initial 516 variables from lidar metrics and hyperspectral data.

MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS FOR IDENTIFICATION OF ABNORMAL GLOW CURVES AND ASSOCIATED ABNORMALITY IN CaSO4:DY-BASED PERSONNEL MONITORING DOSIMETERS

2020 ◽  
Vol 190 (3) ◽  
pp. 342-351
Author(s):  
Munir S Pathan ◽  
S M Pradhan ◽  
T Palani Selvam
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Glow Curve ◽  
Good Accuracy ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Computationally Efficient ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
First Time

Abstract In the present study, machine learning (ML) methods for the identification of abnormal glow curves (GC) of CaSO4:Dy-based thermoluminescence dosimeters in individual monitoring are presented. The classifier algorithms, random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM) are employed for identifying not only the abnormal glow curve but also the type of abnormality. For the first time, the simplest and computationally efficient algorithm based on RF is presented for GC classifications. About 4000 GCs are used for the training and validation of ML algorithms. The performance of all algorithms is compared by using various parameters. Results show a fairly good accuracy of 99.05% for the classification of GCs by RF algorithm. Whereas 96.7% and 96.1% accuracy is achieved using ANN and SVM, respectively. The RF-based classifier is recommended for GC classification as well as in assisting the fault determination of the TLD reader system.

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