scholarly journals Forecasting Daily and Monthly Reference Evapotranspiration in the Aidoghmoush Basin Using Multilayer Perceptron Coupled with Water Wave Optimization

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Sayyahi ◽  
Saeed Farzin ◽  
Hojat Karami
Keyword(s):  
Multilayer Perceptron ◽  
Water Wave ◽  
Reference Evapotranspiration ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Better Than ◽  
Computing Models

The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of soft computing models including multilayer perceptron- (MLP-) water wave optimization (MLP-WWO), MLP-particle swarm optimization (MLP-PSO), and MLP-genetic algorithm (MLP-GA), to simulate the daily and monthly reference evapotranspiration (ET) at the Aidoghmoush basin (Iran). Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to find the best input combination including the lagged ETs. According to the results, the ET values with 1, 2, and 3 (days) lags as well as those with 1, 2, and 3 (months) lags were the most effective variables in the formation of the PCs. The total variance proportion of inputs and eigenvalues was used to identify the most important variables. The accuracy of the models was assessed based on multiple statistical indices such as the mean absolute error (MAE), Nash–Sutcliff efficiency (NSE), and percent bias (PBIAS). The results showed that the performance of hybrid MLP models was better than that of the standalone MLP. The findings confirmed that the MLP-WWO could precisely predict ET.

scholarly journals Statistical Models in Estimating Air Temperature in a Mountainous Region of Greece

2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 544-549 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stelios Maniatis ◽  
Kostas Chronopoulos ◽  
Aristidis Matsoukis ◽  
Athanasios Kamoutsis
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Multi Layer Perceptron ◽  
Simple Linear Regression ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Of Greece ◽  
Better Than

The current work focuses on the estimation of air temperature (T) conditions in two high altitude (alt) sites (1580 m), each one at different orientation (southeast and northwest) in the mountain (Mt) Aenos in the island of Cephalonia, Greece, by using two well-known statistical models, simple linear regression (SLR) and multi-layer perceptron ( MLP), one of the most commonly used artificial neural networks. More specifically, the estimation of mean, maximum and minimum T in high alt sites was based on the respective T data of two lower alt sites (1100 m), the first at southeast and the second at northwest orientations, and was carried out separately for each orientation. The performance of both SLR and MLP models was evaluated by the coefficient of determination (R2) and the Mean Absolute Error (MAE). Results showed that the examined models (SLR and MLP) provided very satisfactory results with regard to the estimation of mean, maximum and minimum T, regarding southeast orientation (R2 ranging from 0.96 to 0.98), with mean T estimation being relatively better, as confirmed by the lowest MAE (0.83). Regarding northwest orientation, T estimation was less accurate (lower R2 and higher MAE), compared to the respective estimation of southeast orientation, but, the results were considered adequate (R2 and MAE ranging from 0.88 to 0.92 and 1.00 to 1.40, respectively). In general, the estimations of the mean T were better than those of the extreme ones (minimum and maximum T). In addition, better results (higher R2 and lower, in general, MAE) were obtained when T estimations were based on T data derived from sites located at areas with similar surroundings, as in the case of dense and tall vegetation of the sites at southeast orientation, irrespective of applied method.

SVR Model for Prediction of Incidence Influenza Based on Automated Method

2014 ◽  
Vol 926-930 ◽  
pp. 1159-1163
Author(s):  
Jia Song
Keyword(s):  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Automated Method ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Single Support Vector Machine ◽  
Absolute Percent Error ◽  
Better Than

As is a significant public health issue to predict the incidence of influenza, this paper present a supported vector regression (SVR) model based on an automated method which worked as the following steps: firstly, the automated method is used to select the texts which highly related to the influenza, and then the SVR algorithm will find out the nonlinear between each context. According to the result, when assessing by the root mean squared predict error, the mean absolute error and the mean absolute percent error of the whole system, the SVR performed much better than single support vector machine regression prediction. Also, the validity of this method is verified.

Explanation Plus Prediction—The Logical Focus of Project Management Research

2021 ◽  
pp. 875697282199994
Author(s):  
Joseph F. Hair ◽  
Marko Sarstedt
Keyword(s):  
Project Management ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Management Research ◽  
The Mean

Most project management research focuses almost exclusively on explanatory analyses. Evaluation of the explanatory power of statistical models is generally based on F-type statistics and the R 2 metric, followed by an assessment of the model parameters (e.g., beta coefficients) in terms of their significance, size, and direction. However, these measures are not indicative of a model’s predictive power, which is central for deriving managerial recommendations. We recommend that project management researchers routinely use additional metrics, such as the mean absolute error or the root mean square error, to accurately quantify their statistical models’ predictive power.

scholarly journals Velody 2—Resilient High-Capacity MIDI Steganography for Organ and Harpsichord Music

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 39
Author(s):  
Eric Järpe ◽  
Mattias Weckstén
Keyword(s):  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Signal To Noise Ratio ◽  
High Capacity ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Music Technology ◽  
Alternative Methods ◽  
File Size ◽  
User Friendly ◽  
Different Levels ◽  
Better Than

A new method for musical steganography for the MIDI format is presented. The MIDI standard is a user-friendly music technology protocol that is frequently deployed by composers of different levels of ambition. There is to the author’s knowledge no fully implemented and rigorously specified, publicly available method for MIDI steganography. The goal of this study, however, is to investigate how a novel MIDI steganography algorithm can be implemented by manipulation of the velocity attribute subject to restrictions of capacity and security. Many of today’s MIDI steganography methods—less rigorously described in the literature—fail to be resilient to steganalysis. Traces (such as artefacts in the MIDI code which would not occur by the mere generation of MIDI music: MIDI file size inflation, radical changes in mean absolute error or peak signal-to-noise ratio of certain kinds of MIDI events or even audible effects in the stego MIDI file) that could catch the eye of a scrutinizing steganalyst are side-effects of many current methods described in the literature. This steganalysis resilience is an imperative property of the steganography method. However, by restricting the carrier MIDI files to classical organ and harpsichord pieces, the problem of velocities following the mood of the music can be avoided. The proposed method, called Velody 2, is found to be on par with or better than the cutting edge alternative methods regarding capacity and inflation while still possessing a better resilience against steganalysis. An audibility test was conducted to check that there are no signs of audible traces in the stego MIDI files.

Visualizing the Variance of a Random Variable

2011 ◽  
Vol 18 (01) ◽  
pp. 71-85
Author(s):  
Fabrizio Cacciafesta
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Dominance ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Second Order ◽  
Taylor Formula ◽  
Order Stochastic Dominance ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Second Order Stochastic Dominance ◽  
Options Theory

We provide a simple way to visualize the variance and the mean absolute error of a random variable with finite mean. Some application to options theory and to second order stochastic dominance is given: we show, among other, that the "call-put parity" may be seen as a Taylor formula.

scholarly journals Day-Ahead Forecasting of Hourly Photovoltaic Power Based on Robust Multilayer Perception

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4863 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Huang ◽  
Longpeng Cao ◽  
Nanxin Peng ◽  
Sijia Li ◽  
Jing Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Power Plants ◽  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Multilayer Perception ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Effectiveness And Efficiency ◽  
Mlp Network ◽  
Grid Operation ◽  
Better Than

Photovoltaic (PV) modules convert renewable and sustainable solar energy into electricity. However, the uncertainty of PV power production brings challenges for the grid operation. To facilitate the management and scheduling of PV power plants, forecasting is an essential technique. In this paper, a robust multilayer perception (MLP) neural network was developed for day-ahead forecasting of hourly PV power. A generic MLP is usually trained by minimizing the mean squared loss. The mean squared error is sensitive to a few particularly large errors that can lead to a poor estimator. To tackle the problem, the pseudo-Huber loss function, which combines the best properties of squared loss and absolute loss, was adopted in this paper. The effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method was verified by benchmarking against a generic MLP network with real PV data. Numerical experiments illustrated that the proposed method performed better than the generic MLP network in terms of root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE).

scholarly journals Direct Calculation of Thermodynamic Wet-Bulb Temperature as a Function of Pressure and Elevation

2013 ◽  
Vol 30 (8) ◽  
pp. 1757-1765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sayed-Hossein Sadeghi ◽  
Troy R. Peters ◽  
Douglas R. Cobos ◽  
Henry W. Loescher ◽  
Colin S. Campbell
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Direct Calculation ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Order Polynomial ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Very High

Abstract A simple analytical method was developed for directly calculating the thermodynamic wet-bulb temperature from air temperature and the vapor pressure (or relative humidity) at elevations up to 4500 m above MSL was developed. This methodology was based on the fact that the wet-bulb temperature can be closely approximated by a second-order polynomial in both the positive and negative ranges in ambient air temperature. The method in this study builds upon this understanding and provides results for the negative range of air temperatures (−17° to 0°C), so that the maximum observed error in this area is equal to or smaller than −0.17°C. For temperatures ≥0°C, wet-bulb temperature accuracy was ±0.65°C, and larger errors corresponded to very high temperatures (Ta ≥ 39°C) and/or very high or low relative humidities (5% < RH < 10% or RH > 98%). The mean absolute error and the root-mean-square error were 0.15° and 0.2°C, respectively.

scholarly journals A Novel Neural Network Model for Blood Pressure Estimation Using Photoplethesmography without Electrocardiogram

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ludi Wang ◽  
Wei Zhou ◽  
Ying Xing ◽  
Xiaoguang Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Wearable Sensors ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Noninvasive Estimation ◽  
Treatment Of Hypertension ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Blood Pressure Estimation

The prevention, evaluation, and treatment of hypertension have attracted increasing attention in recent years. As photoplethysmography (PPG) technology has been widely applied to wearable sensors, the noninvasive estimation of blood pressure (BP) using the PPG method has received considerable interest. In this paper, a method for estimating systolic and diastolic BP based only on a PPG signal is developed. The multitaper method (MTM) is used for feature extraction, and an artificial neural network (ANN) is used for estimation. Compared with previous approaches, the proposed method obtains better accuracy; the mean absolute error is 4.02 ± 2.79 mmHg for systolic BP and 2.27 ± 1.82 mmHg for diastolic BP.

Validating the usefulness of sectorwise regression of visual field in the central 10°

2021 ◽  
pp. bjophthalmol-2020-317391
Author(s):  
Takashi Omoto ◽  
Hiroshi Murata ◽  
Yuri Fujino ◽  
Masato Matsuura ◽  
Takehiro Yamashita ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Visual Field ◽  
Mean Absolute Error ◽  
Open Angle Glaucoma ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Open Angle ◽  
Clustering Method ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Test Points

AimTo evaluate the usefulness of the application of the clustering method to the trend analysis (sectorwise regression) in comparison with the pointwise linear regression (PLR).MethodsThis study included 153 eyes of 101 patients with open-angle glaucoma. With PLR, the total deviation (TD) values of the 10th visual field (VF) were predicted using the shorter VF sequences (from first 3 to 9) by extrapolating TD values against time in a pointwise manner. Then, 68 test points were stratified into 29 sectors. In each sector, the mean of TD values was calculated and allocated to all test points belonging to the sector. Subsequently, the TD values of the 10th VF were predicted by extrapolating the allocated TD value against time in a pointwise manner. Similar analyses were conducted to predict the 11th–16th VFs using the first 10 VFs.ResultsWhen predicting the 10th VF using the shorter sequences, the mean absolute error (MAE) values were significantly smaller in the sectorwise regression than in PLR. When predicting from the 11th and 16th VFs using the first 10 VFs, the MAE values were significantly larger in the sectorwise regression than in PLR when predicting the 11th VF; however, no significant difference was observed with other VF predictions.ConclusionAccurate prediction was achieved using the sectorwise regression, in particular when a small number of VFs were used in the prediction. The accuracy of the sectorwise regression was not hampered in longer follow-up compared with PLR.

The Met Office operational global ocean forecast system FOAM-ORCA12

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana Barbosa Aguiar ◽  
Jennifer Waters ◽  
Martin Price ◽  
Gordon Inverarity ◽  
Christine Pequignet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Computational Cost ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Background Error ◽  
Verification Methods ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Lower Continuous ◽  
Better Than

<div> <p>The importance of oceans for atmospheric forecasts as well as climate simulations is being increasingly recognised with the advent of coupled ocean / atmosphere forecast models. Having comparable resolutions in both domains maximises the benefits for a given computational cost. The Met Office has recently upgraded its operational global ocean-only model from an eddy permitting 1/4 degree tripolar grid (ORCA025) to the eddy resolving 1/12 degree ORCA12 configuration while retaining 1/4 degree data assimilation. </p> </div><div> <p>We will present a description of the ocean-only ORCA12 system, FOAM-ORCA12, alongside some initial results. Qualitatively, FOAM-ORCA12 seems to represent better (than FOAM-ORCA025) the details of mesoscale features in SST and surface currents. Overall, traditional statistical results suggest that the new FOAM-ORCA12 system performs similarly or slightly worse than the pre-existing FOAM-ORCA025. However, it is known that comparisons of models running at different resolutions suffer from a double penalty effect, whereby higher-resolution models are penalised more than lower-resolution models for features that are offset in time and space. Neighbourhood verification methods seek to make a fairer comparison using a common spatial scale for both models and it can be seen that, as neighbourhood sizes increase, ORCA12 consistently has lower continuous ranked probability scores (CRPS) than ORCA025. CRPS measures the accuracy of the pseudo-ensemble created by the neighbourhood method and generalises the mean absolute error measure for deterministic forecasts. </p> </div><div> <p>The focus over the next year will be on diagnosing the performance of both the model and assimilation. A planned development that is expected to enhance the system is the update of the background-error covariances used for data assimilation. </p> </div>

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