scholarly journals A Monte Carlo Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of Automobile Handling, Comfort, and Stability

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Mohamed A. Hassan ◽  
Mohamed AA Abdelkareem ◽  
Gangfeng Tan ◽  
M.M Moheyeldein
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Excitation Frequency ◽  
Sine Wave ◽  
Roll Angle ◽  
Lateral Acceleration ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Lateral Stability ◽  
Suspension Parameters

This paper investigates the bandwidth sensitivity of automobile handling, comfort, and stability based on Monte Carlo sensitivity simulations. Performed bandwidth sensitivity simulations include the effects of vehicle geometry and suspension parameters on lateral acceleration, roll angle, front/rear sideslip angles, and yaw rate angle, including both time- and frequency-domain sensitivity analyses. To replicate actual automobile responses, a full-vehicle roll-oriented suspension seven-degree-of-freedom (7-DOF) model was developed and implemented considering a 2-DOF planar two-track model with a nonlinear Pacejka tire model. During the Monte Carlo simulations, 10 mm and 20 mm amplitude sine-wave excitations were used for the left and right sides, respectively, and the frequency was uniformly sampled over the range of 0–30 Hz. Simultaneously, each investigated vehicle parameter varied by ±25% relative to the reference model parameters. These simulations illustrate the sensitivity of the lateral acceleration, roll angle, yaw angle, and sideslip angles to their parameter variations. The results confirm that the road excitation frequency, tire properties, vehicle geometry, and suspension parameters significantly influence the vehicular lateral and roll stabilities when considering the lower and higher peaks and the frequency bandwidths of the lateral and roll stabilities. Interestingly, the longitudinal location of the center of gravity and the tire properties can achieve more significant peak lateral stability responses, as represented by the front and rear sideslip angles and the frequency bandwidth, compared to the other vehicle parameters at high frequencies. Choosing the correct tire properties and vehicle geometry, as well as suspension characteristics, plays an essential role in increasing the vehicular lateral stability and the rollover threshold. Variations in the studied parameters allow for higher vehicular stability when a vehicle is driven on random road surfaces.

Model-Reference Based Adaptive Control for Enhancing Lateral Stability of Car-Trailer Systems

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Smitha Vempaty ◽  
Eungkil Lee ◽  
Yuping He
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Control ◽  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Model Reference Adaptive Control ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Lateral Stability ◽  
Model Reference ◽  
Control Approach ◽  
Model Reference Adaptive

This paper presents a model reference adaptive control (MRAC) approach to enhance the lateral stability of car-trailer systems. To this end, a 3 degrees of freedom (DOF) linear yaw-plane car-trailer model was developed as a “reference model”. The yaw rate of leading and trailing units of the reference model were used as the target states to control and stabilize a virtual vehicle plant represented by a 5 DOF linear yaw-roll car-trailer model. A Lyapunov-based controller was designed to handle the lateral stability of the car-trailer dynamical system. The model parameters and operating conditions of the system were predefined while designing the controller. The effectiveness of the adaptive controller for improving the lateral stability of car-trailer systems was demonstrated under a simulated multiple cycle sine-wave steering input maneuver. It was observed that the lateral stability of car-trailer system was improved by controlling respective yaw rates of the car and the trailer, using model reference adaptive control approach in conjunction with Lyapunov stability criterion.

Adaptive control of time-varying non-linear plants by speed-gradient algorithms

2019 ◽  
pp. 37-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. P. Tomchina ◽  
D. N. Polyakhov ◽  
O. I. Tokareva ◽  
A. L. Fradkov
Keyword(s):  
Adaptive Control ◽  
Adaptive Systems ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Maximum Deviation ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
System Solution ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Initial Uncertainty ◽  
Speed Gradient

Introduction: The motion of many real world systems is described by essentially non-linear and non-stationary models. A number of approaches to the control of such plants are based on constructing an internal model of non-stationarity. However, the non-stationarity model parameters can vary widely, leading to more errors. It is only assumed in this paper that the change rate of the object parameters is limited, while the initial uncertainty can be quite large.Purpose: Analysis of adaptive control algorithms for non-linear and time-varying systems with an explicit reference model, synthesized by the speed gradient method.Results: An estimate was obtained for the maximum deviation of a closed-loop system solution from the reference model solution. It is shown that with sufficiently slow changes in the parameters and a small initial uncertainty, the limit error in the system can be made arbitrarily small. Systems designed by the direct approach and systems based on the identification approach are both considered. The procedures for the synthesis of an adaptive regulator and analysis of the synthesized system are illustrated by an example.Practical relevance: The obtained results allow us to build and analyze a broad class of adaptive systems with reference models under non-stationary conditions.

scholarly journals Research on Model Predictive Control for Automobile Active Tilt Based on Active Suspension

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 671
Author(s):  
Jialing Yao ◽  
Meng Wang ◽  
Zhihong Li ◽  
Yunyi Jia
Keyword(s):  
Load Transfer ◽  
Ride Comfort ◽  
Active Suspension ◽  
Path Tracking ◽  
Roll Angle ◽  
Lateral Acceleration ◽  
Vehicle Speed ◽  
Model Predictive Controller ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Predictive Controller

To improve the handling stability of automobiles and reduce the odds of rollover, active or semi-active suspension systems are usually used to control the roll of a vehicle. However, these kinds of control systems often take a zero-roll-angle as the control target and have a limited effect on improving the performance of the vehicle when turning. Tilt control, which actively controls the vehicle to tilt inward during a curve, greatly benefits the comprehensive performance of a vehicle when it is cornering. After analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of the tilt control strategies for narrow commuter vehicles by combining the structure and dynamic characteristics of automobiles, a direct tilt control (DTC) strategy was determined to be more suitable for automobiles. A model predictive controller for the DTC strategy was designed based on an active suspension. This allowed the reverse tilt to cause the moment generated by gravity to offset that generated by the centrifugal force, thereby significantly improving the handling stability, ride comfort, vehicle speed, and rollover prevention. The model predictive controller simultaneously tracked the desired tilt angle and yaw rate, achieving path tracking while improving the anti-rollover capability of the vehicle. Simulations of step-steering input and double-lane change maneuvers were performed. The results showed that, compared with traditional zero-roll-angle control, the proposed tilt control greatly reduced the occupant’s perceived lateral acceleration and the lateral load transfer ratio when the vehicle turned and exhibited a good path-tracking performance.

scholarly journals Optimal Investment and Proportional Reinsurance in a Regime-Switching Market Model under Forward Preferences

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (14) ◽  
pp. 1610
Author(s):  
Katia Colaneri ◽  
Alessandra Cretarola ◽  
Benedetta Salterini
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Common Factor ◽  
Optimal Investment ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Optimal Investment Strategy

In this paper, we study the optimal investment and reinsurance problem of an insurance company whose investment preferences are described via a forward dynamic exponential utility in a regime-switching market model. Financial and actuarial frameworks are dependent since stock prices and insurance claims vary according to a common factor given by a continuous time finite state Markov chain. We construct the value function and we prove that it is a forward dynamic utility. Then, we characterize the optimal investment strategy and the optimal proportional level of reinsurance. We also perform numerical experiments and provide sensitivity analyses with respect to some model parameters.

scholarly journals Statistical Analysis of Tritium Breeding Ratio Deviations in the DEMO Due to Nuclear Data Uncertainties

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 5234
Author(s):  
Jin Hun Park ◽  
Pavel Pereslavtsev ◽  
Alexandre Konobeev ◽  
Christian Wegmann
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Fusion Reactor ◽  
Nuclear Data ◽  
Data File ◽  
Nuclear Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Tritium Breeding ◽  
Tritium Breeding Ratio ◽  
Nuclear Data Library ◽  
Breeding Ratio

For the stable and self-sufficient functioning of the DEMO fusion reactor, one of the most important parameters that must be demonstrated is the Tritium Breeding Ratio (TBR). The reliable assessment of the TBR with safety margins is a matter of fusion reactor viability. The uncertainty of the TBR in the neutronic simulations includes many different aspects such as the uncertainty due to the simplification of the geometry models used, the uncertainty of the reactor layout and the uncertainty introduced due to neutronic calculations. The last one can be reduced by applying high fidelity Monte Carlo simulations for TBR estimations. Nevertheless, these calculations have inherent statistical errors controlled by the number of neutron histories, straightforward for a quantity such as that of TBR underlying errors due to nuclear data uncertainties. In fact, every evaluated nuclear data file involved in the MCNP calculations can be replaced with the set of the random data files representing the particular deviation of the nuclear model parameters, each of them being correct and valid for applications. To account for the uncertainty of the nuclear model parameters introduced in the evaluated data file, a total Monte Carlo (TMC) method can be used to analyze the uncertainty of TBR owing to the nuclear data used for calculations. To this end, two 3D fully heterogeneous geometry models of the helium cooled pebble bed (HCPB) and water cooled lithium lead (WCLL) European DEMOs were utilized for the calculations of the TBR. The TMC calculations were performed, making use of the TENDL-2017 nuclear data library random files with high enough statistics providing a well-resolved Gaussian distribution of the TBR value. The assessment was done for the estimation of the TBR uncertainty due to the nuclear data for entire material compositions and for separate materials: structural, breeder and neutron multipliers. The overall TBR uncertainty for the nuclear data was estimated to be 3~4% for the HCPB and WCLL DEMOs, respectively.

scholarly journals Parameter stability and consistency in an alongshore-current model determined with Markov chain Monte Carlo

2008 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. G. Ruessink
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Markov Chain Monte Carlo ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Parameter Stability ◽  
Small Uncertainty ◽  
Best Fit ◽  
Stability And Consistency

When a numerical model is to be used as a practical tool, its parameters should preferably be stable and consistent, that is, possess a small uncertainty and be time-invariant. Using data and predictions of alongshore mean currents flowing on a beach as a case study, this paper illustrates how parameter stability and consistency can be assessed using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Within a single calibration run, Markov chain Monte Carlo estimates the parameter posterior probability density function, its mode being the best-fit parameter set. Parameter stability is investigated by stepwise adding new data to a calibration run, while consistency is examined by calibrating the model on different datasets of equal length. The results for the present case study indicate that various tidal cycles with strong (say, >0.5 m/s) currents are required to obtain stable parameter estimates, and that the best-fit model parameters and the underlying posterior distribution are strongly time-varying. This inconsistent parameter behavior may reflect unresolved variability of the processes represented by the parameters, or may represent compensational behavior for temporal violations in specific model assumptions.

Probabilistic Assessment of Wind Farm Active Power Based on Monte-Carlo Simulation

2013 ◽  
Vol 291-294 ◽  
pp. 536-540 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Wei Wang ◽  
Jian Hua Zhang ◽  
Cheng Jiang ◽  
Lei Yu
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Power Output ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Active Power ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Probability Assessment ◽  
Reliability Models ◽  
Reliability Parameters

The conventional deterministic methods have been unable to accurately assess the active power output of the wind farm being the random and intermittent of wind power, and the probabilistic methods commonly used to solve this problem. In this paper the multi-state fault model is built considering run, outage and derating state of wind turbine, and then the reliability model of the wind farm is established considering the randomness of the wind speed, the wind farm wake effects and turbine failure. The active wind farm output probability assessment methods and processes based on the Monte Carlo method. The related programs are written in MATLAB, and the probability assessment for active power output of a wind farm in carried out, the effectiveness and adaptability of built reliability models and assessment methods are illustrated by analysis of the effects of reliability parameters and model parameters on assessment results.

scholarly journals Modelling the spread of American foulbrood in honeybees

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (88) ◽  
pp. 20130650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samik Datta ◽  
James C. Bull ◽  
Giles E. Budge ◽  
Matt J. Keeling
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Markov Chain ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
American Foulbrood ◽  
Inspection Period ◽  
Stochastic Sir ◽  
Stochastic Sir Model ◽  
The Impact

We investigate the spread of American foulbrood (AFB), a disease caused by the bacterium Paenibacillus larvae , that affects bees and can be extremely damaging to beehives. Our dataset comes from an inspection period carried out during an AFB epidemic of honeybee colonies on the island of Jersey during the summer of 2010. The data include the number of hives of honeybees, location and owner of honeybee apiaries across the island. We use a spatial SIR model with an underlying owner network to simulate the epidemic and characterize the epidemic using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme to determine model parameters and infection times (including undetected ‘occult’ infections). Likely methods of infection spread can be inferred from the analysis, with both distance- and owner-based transmissions being found to contribute to the spread of AFB. The results of the MCMC are corroborated by simulating the epidemic using a stochastic SIR model, resulting in aggregate levels of infection that are comparable to the data. We use this stochastic SIR model to simulate the impact of different control strategies on controlling the epidemic. It is found that earlier inspections result in smaller epidemics and a higher likelihood of AFB extinction.

scholarly journals Cost Effectiveness of a Home-Based Intervention That Helps Functionally Vulnerable Older Adults Age in Place at Home

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Jutkowitz ◽  
Laura N. Gitlin ◽  
Laura T. Pizzi ◽  
Edward Lee ◽  
Marie P. Dennis
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Community Dwelling ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Potential Cost ◽  
Functional Difficulties ◽  
Age In Place ◽  
Home Based ◽  
Occupational And Physical Therapy ◽  
Home Based Intervention

Evaluating cost effectiveness of interventions for aging in place is essential for adoption in service settings. We present the cost effectiveness of Advancing Better Living for Elders (ABLE), previously shown in a randomized trial to reduce functional difficulties and mortality in 319 community-dwelling elders. ABLE involved occupational and physical therapy sessions and home modifications to address client-identified functional difficulties, performance goals, and home safety. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), expressed as additional cost to bring about one additional year of life, was calculated. Two models were then developed to account for potential cost differences in implementing ABLE. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to account for variations in model parameters. By two years, there were 30 deaths (9: ABLE; 21: control). Additional costs for 1 additional year of life was $13,179 for Model 1 and $14,800 for Model 2. Investment in ABLE may be worthwhile depending on society's willingness to pay.

Coupled Thermo-Hydro-Geochemical Models of Engineered Barrier Systems: The Febex Project

2000 ◽  
Vol 663 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Samper ◽  
R. Juncosa ◽  
V. Navarro ◽  
J. Delgado ◽  
L. Montenegro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
In Situ Test ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Engineered Barrier

ABSTRACTFEBEX (Full-scale Engineered Barrier EXperiment) is a demonstration and research project dealing with the bentonite engineered barrier designed for sealing and containment of waste in a high level radioactive waste repository (HLWR). It includes two main experiments: an situ full-scale test performed at Grimsel (GTS) and a mock-up test operating since February 1997 at CIEMAT facilities in Madrid (Spain) [1,2,3]. One of the objectives of FEBEX is the development and testing of conceptual and numerical models for the thermal, hydrodynamic, and geochemical (THG) processes expected to take place in engineered clay barriers. A significant improvement in coupled THG modeling of the clay barrier has been achieved both in terms of a better understanding of THG processes and more sophisticated THG computer codes. The ability of these models to reproduce the observed THG patterns in a wide range of THG conditions enhances the confidence in their prediction capabilities. Numerical THG models of heating and hydration experiments performed on small-scale lab cells provide excellent results for temperatures, water inflow and final water content in the cells [3]. Calculated concentrations at the end of the experiments reproduce most of the patterns of measured data. In general, the fit of concentrations of dissolved species is better than that of exchanged cations. These models were later used to simulate the evolution of the large-scale experiments (in situ and mock-up). Some thermo-hydrodynamic hypotheses and bentonite parameters were slightly revised during TH calibration of the mock-up test. The results of the reference model reproduce simultaneously the observed water inflows and bentonite temperatures and relative humidities. Although the model is highly sensitive to one-at-a-time variations in model parameters, the possibility of parameter combinations leading to similar fits cannot be precluded. The TH model of the “in situ” test is based on the same bentonite TH parameters and assumptions as for the “mock-up” test. Granite parameters were slightly modified during the calibration process in order to reproduce the observed thermal and hydrodynamic evolution. The reference model captures properly relative humidities and temperatures in the bentonite [3]. It also reproduces the observed spatial distribution of water pressures and temperatures in the granite. Once calibrated the TH aspects of the model, predictions of the THG evolution of both tests were performed. Data from the dismantling of the in situ test, which is planned for the summer of 2001, will provide a unique opportunity to test and validate current THG models of the EBS.

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