scholarly journals The Forecasting of Electrical Energy Consumption in Morocco with an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Mohammed Jamii ◽  
Mohamed Maaroufi
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Electrical Energy Consumption ◽  
Electricity Grid ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Annual Period

The national demand for primary energy has experienced an average increase of almost 5% in recent years, driven by the growth in electricity consumption, which grew by an average of 6% per year between 2003 and 2017, by virtue of the almost generalization of rural electrification and the dynamism of our economy and especially the policy of major works in infrastructure, industry, agriculture, tourism, and social housing. In fact, forecasting the demand for electrical energy remains a controversial issue in the development of the electricity grid and energy management. The ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is applied to model electrical energy consumption for the annual period from 1971 to 2020. The same data are also used to predicting for 2021–2030 in order to verify the adequacy of the model and to provide information on the state of energy demand in Morocco in the future. The main results indicate an upward trend in electrical energy consumption by the end of 2030, with electricity consumption expected to be in the range of 2039639.09–53589.00 GWh per year.

scholarly journals RELASI KENYAMANAN TERMAL DAN KONSUMSI ENERGI LISTRIK WARD DI WILAYAH TROPIS LEMBAP

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (02) ◽  
pp. 92
Author(s):  
Yuyus Mulia ◽  
Tri Harso Karyono ◽  
Kamal A Arif
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Thermal Comfort ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Hospital Inpatient ◽  
Electrical Energy Consumption ◽  
Tropical Regions

<p>Penelitian kenyamanan termal pada  <em>ward</em>  (bangunan rawat inap rumah sakit) belum banyak dilakukan. Isu pokok penelitian ini  mencakup aspek kenyamanan termal dan aspek konsumsi energi listrik <em>ward</em> di wilayah tropis lembap. Tujuan penelitian ini mengungkap relasi tingkat kenyamanan  termal dan tingkat konsumsi energi listrik <em>ward</em> di wilayah tropis lembap. Metoda penelitian ini bersifat kuantitatif dengan jumlah sampel 11  unit <em>ward</em> (5 unit di dataran rendah/ wilayah Cirebon dan 6  unit di dataran tinggi/ wilayah Bandung – Provinsi Jawa Barat, Indonesia); jumlah responden 1099 orang (500 orang berada di kelompok <em>ward</em> dataran rendah, dan 599 orang di kelompok <em>ward</em> dataran tinggi).  Peralatan yang digunakan untuk mendata kondisi parameter iklim dan pilihan sensasi termal pengguna <em>ward</em> adalah pengukur dan perekam digital <em>Heat Index WBGT Meter-Model WBGT-2010SD ex Lutron</em> dan <em>Anemometer-Model AM-4222 ex Lutron</em>, serta formulir survey. Uji statistik dan analisa regresi linier terhadap data yang diperoleh, menunjukkan hasil: pada <em>ward</em> dataran rendah dengan temperatur udara lingkungan berkisar 23.4 – 37.2°C;  tingkat  kenyamanan termalnya 29.2°C dan  tingkat konsumsi energi listriknya berkisar 62 kWh/m2/th. Sementara pada <em>ward</em> dataran tinggi dengan  temperatur udara lingkungan berkisar 18.4 – 32.2°C;  tingkat kenyamanan termalnya 27.4°C dan tingkat konsumsi energi listriknya berkisar 49 kWh/m2/th.  Kesimpulan; pada <em>ward</em> di wilayah tropis lembap ditemukan adanya fakta relasi sebagai berikut: semakin tinggi temperatur udara lingkungannya,  semakin tinggi tingkat kenyamanan termalnya, dan semakin tinggi pula jumlah konsumsi energi listriknya.</p><p> </p><p>Kata Kunci: Kenyamanan termal, konsumsi energi listrik, ward, tropis lembab</p><p> </p><p align="center"><strong>ABSTRACT</strong></p><p>Research on thermal comfort in the ward (hospital inpatient building) has not been widely carried out. The main issues of this study include aspects of thermal comfort and aspects of ward electrical energy consumption in humid tropical regions. The purpose of this study is to reveal the relation between thermal comfort level and ward electrical energy consumption level in humid tropical regions. This research method is quantitative with a sample of 11 ward units (5 units in the lowland / Cirebon region and 6 units in the highlands / Bandung area - West Java Province, Indonesia); the number of respondents is 1099 people (500 people are in the lowland ward group, and 599 people in the highland ward group). The equipment used to record climate parameter conditions and the choice of thermal sensations for ward users is the WBGT-2010SD Model Heat Index WBGT Meter and digital recorder ex Lutron and Anemometer-Model AM-4222 ex Lutron, as well as survey forms. Statistical tests and linear regression analysis of the data obtained showed results: in the lowland ward with ambient air temperature ranging from 23.4 - 37.2 ° C; the lowest level of comfort is 29.2 ° C and the level of electricity consumption is around 62 kWh / m2 / year. While in the highland ward with environmental air temperatures ranging from 18.4 - 32.2 ° C; the lowest level of comfort is 27.4 ° C and the level of electricity consumption is around 49 kWh / m2 / year. Conclusion; In the ward in the humid tropics, the facts of the relationship are as follows: the higher the air temperature of the environment, the higher the level of thermal comfort, and the higher the amount of electricity consumption.</p><p> </p><p>Keywords: thermal comfort, electrical energy consumption, ward, humid tropical</p>

scholarly journals Mobile Application for the Monitoring and Control of Electrical Energy Consumption through a Meter Made with Arduino

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 46-54
Author(s):  
Keyla Nalvarte Dionisio ◽  
◽  
Carlos Diaz Nuñez ◽  
Alexi Delgado ◽  
Enrique Lee Huamaní
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Mobile Applications ◽  
Mobile Application ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Electrical Energy Consumption ◽  
Monitoring And Control ◽  
And Control ◽  
Issue Reports

Abstract— This year, citizens were complaining that the power companies were overcharging their bills because of the pandemic, but investigations in previous years also showed claims in Peru and internationally. In this work, the Scrum Methodology was used for the development of the mobile application and the Balsamiq tool was used for the design of the prototype. In addition, the Arduino tool was used for the electricity consumption meter. As for the case study, we developed the prototypes of the application with its functions and the methodology of how it is elaborated, at the same time we described the way in which the meter will be implemented with Arduino. The results obtained from the research are that people can compare the consumption of the bill issued by the electricity company and the consumption shown by the Arduino meter, in addition to the union of the mobile application with the meter will allow them to consult the consumption and also issue reports having a better control of electricity. This work can be implemented not only in the cities, but also in remote places where traditional meters have not been implemented. Keywords— Arduino; Mobile applications; Power consumption; Scrum methodology

scholarly journals 2030 Energy Pathways in Côte d’Ivoire: “A Business as Usual” Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yessoh Gaudens Thecle Edjoukou ◽  
Bangzhu Zhu ◽  
Minxing Jiang ◽  
Akadje Jean Roland Edjoukou
Keyword(s):  
Energy Demand ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Resource Planning ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Energy Structure ◽  
Annual Growth Rate ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Primary Energy Demand ◽  
Business As Usual

Forecasting future energy demand values is of paramount importance for proper resource planning. This paper examines energy outlook for the coming decade in Côte d’Ivoire presented as a business as usual scenario. We, therefore, build a forecasting model using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to estimate primary energy demand and energy demand by fuels. The results indicate that energy demand will increase steadily within the forecasted period (2017-2030). However, the annual growth rate of each fuel,, including the primary energy demand item, will first rise from the year 1990 to the year 2016 and then decrease within the forecasted period except hydropower that will experience a steady increase from 1990 to 2030. Furthermore, it is noticed that the energy structure of the country will still be biofuels (fuelwood and charcoal) intensive with a significant presence of conventional sources of energy. Based on these findings, we propose some policy recommendations.

scholarly journals Prediction of the Energy Demand Trend in Middle Africa—A Comparison of MGM, MECM, ARIMA and BP Models

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 2436 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wang ◽  
Zhan ◽  
Li
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Research Level ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Curve Method ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Bp Neural Network Model ◽  
Absolute Percent Error

Africa has abundant energy resources, but African energy research level is relatively low. In response to this gap, this paper takes Middle Africa as an example to systematically predict energy demand to give support. In this paper, we utilize four models, metabolic grey model (MGM), modified exponential curve method (MECM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and BP neural network model (BP), to predict the energy consumption of Middle Africa in the next 14 years. Comparing four completely different types of predictive models can fully depict the characteristics of the predictive data and give an all-round analysis of the predicted results. These proposed models are applied to simulate Middle Africa’s energy consumption between 1994 and 2016 to test their accuracy. Among them, the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of MGM, MECM, ARIMA and BP are 2.41%, 4.80%, 1.91%, and 0.88%. The results show that MGM, MECM, ARIMA, and BP presented in this paper can produce reliable forecasting results. Therefore, the four models are used to forecast energy demand in the next 14 years (2017–2030). Forecasts show that energy demand of Middle Africa will continue to grow at a rate of about 5.37%.

scholarly journals Cost-Benefit Analysis of Hybrid Photovoltaic/Thermal Collectors in a Nearly Zero-Energy Building

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1582 ◽  
Author(s):  
Conti ◽  
Schito ◽  
Testi
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Hot Water ◽  
Solar Thermal ◽  
Primary Energy Consumption ◽  
Solar Thermal Energy ◽  
Zero Energy

This paper analyzes the use of hybrid photovoltaic/thermal (PVT) collectors in nearly zero-energy buildings (NZEBs). We present a design methodology based on the dynamic simulation of the whole energy system, which includes the building energy demand, a reversible heat pump as generator, the thermal storage, the power exchange with the grid, and both thermal and electrical energy production by solar collectors. An exhaustive search of the best equipment sizing and design is performed to minimize both the total costs and the non-renewable primary energy consumption over the system lifetime. The results show that photovoltaic/thermal technology reduces the non-renewable primary energy consumption below the nearly zero-energy threshold value, assumed as 15 kWh/(m2·yr), also reducing the total costs with respect to a non-solar solution (up to 8%). As expected, several possible optimal designs exist, with an opposite trend between energy savings and total costs. In all these optimal configurations, we figure out that photovoltaic/thermal technology favors the production of electrical energy with respect to the thermal one, which mainly occurs during the summer to meet the domestic hot water requirements and lower the temperature of the collectors. Finally, we show that, for a given solar area, photovoltaic/thermal technology leads to a higher reduction of the non-renewable primary energy and to a higher production of solar thermal energy with respect to a traditional separate production employing photovoltaic (PV) modules and solar thermal (ST) collectors.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Faktor Psikologis dan Regulasi Terhadap Perilaku Konsumsi Energi Listrik Sektor Rumah Tangga Berdasarkan Usia

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 49
Author(s):  
Maria Isfus Senjawati ◽  
Lisa Susanti ◽  
Hilma Raimona Zadry ◽  
Gustiarini Rika Putri
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Psychological Factors ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Electrical Energy Consumption ◽  
Regulatory Factors ◽  
The Government

The increase in household electrical energy causes shrinkage of energy so that efforts are needed to conserve energy, especially electrical energy. One attempt to reducing the scarcity of electrical energy is by changing behavior. Changes in the behavior of electricity consumption can be influenced by psychological factors (norms, awareness, etc.), demographic factors (age, gender, income, etc.), and other factors such as regulations or policies from the government to conserve energy. This study seeks to determine the effect of psychological and regulatory factors on the behavior of household electricity consumption based on age. The method used was to conduct a survey by distributing questionnaires, the respondents obtained were 808 respondents. The results of the questionnaire were processed using the Structural Equation Model Partial Least Square (SEM-PLS) using the Smart-PLS software. The results of this study indicate that psychological and regulatory factors can explain their effect on the behavior of electrical energy consumption for ages <30 years of 50.9%. For 30-50 years old it is 49.5% while those> 50 years old are 59.3% and the rest is explained by other factors / variables outside those that have been studied so that it can be concluded that psychological factors and regulatory factors have a significant and significant influence. positive behavior towards household electrical energy consumption at all ages. it is expected that the results of this study can become the basis for making stronger regulations or policies in the field of energy conservation.

scholarly journals Electrical energy demand management in Russia

2018 ◽  
pp. 72-79
Author(s):  
A. P. Dzyuba ◽  
L. A. Soloveva
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Demand Management ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Energy System ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
Management Model ◽  
Electrical Energy Consumption ◽  
Energy Efficiency Improvement

One of the modern and effective tools for energy efficiency improvement at the level of national economies is management of the demand for electrical energy consumption. The mechanism of management of the demand for electrical energy consumption has a significant potential for energy efficiency improvement for the Russian economy, but due to structural features of the Unified Energy System of Russia, the Electrical Energy Demand Management Program is at the stage of concept development. A model of management of the demand for electrical energy consumption for Unified Energy System of Russia has been developed taking into account structural features of the electric power system. Peculiarities of the economic structure of Russia, which influence the formation of the structure of the country’s electric power complex, have been revealed. They were taken into account when developing requirements for the electrical energy demand management system in the Unified Energy System of Russia. The basic features are the multilevel form and hierarchy of the structure; they have been investigated in the process of developing the demand management model. The classification of electric power industry entities, related to processes of electric energy circulation and the influence on the management of the demand for electrical energy consumption, has been developed with economic interests of each entity within the framework of the demand management model. The electrical energy demand management model, which is based on the hierarchical structure of demand management, has been developed and covers the whole complex of management functions and takes into account features of demand management at each management level. The model allows to significantly improve the efficiency of management of the demand for electrical energy consumption, to ensure the quality of management.

scholarly journals Electricity consumption forecast for Tarkwa using autoregressive integrated moving average and adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-94
Author(s):  
Robert Ofosu ◽  
Benjamin Odoi ◽  
Mercy Asamoah
Keyword(s):  
Fuzzy Inference System ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Testing Dataset ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy

Electricity has become one of the inelastic goods in our world today. The proper functioning of most equipment today relies on electricity. Taking Tarkwa which is a mining community into consideration, the various mines, schools, shops, banks and other companies in the municipality massively rely on electricity for their day to day running. Therefore, knowing the exact amount of electricity to produce and distribute for the smooth running of businesses and basic living is of great necessity. This study compared and formulated a model to forecast and predict the daily electrical energy consumption in Tarkwa for the year 2019. The data used was a monthly dataset for the year 2018 and it comprised of the temperature, wind speed, population and electricity consumption for Tarkwa. The methods used were Artificial Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). The ANFIS was used as a predictor to predict the electricity consumption based on the training and testing of the dependent and independent variables. The ARIMA was used to forecast the dependent and independent variables for 2019. These simulations were done using MATLand Minitab. The results of the analysis revealed that the training and testing dataset allowed ANFIS to learn and understand the system but the ANFIS could only forecast the 2019 electricity consumption after the input data to the system was changed to the ARIMA forecasted 2019 independent variables. It was observed that the amount of electricity consumed in 2019 increased by 14%.

A persuasive multi-agent simulator to improve electrical energy consumption

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Fernanda P. Mota ◽  
Cristiano R. Steffens ◽  
Diana F. Adamatti ◽  
Silvia S. Da C Botelho ◽  
Vagner Rosa
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Electrical Energy ◽  
Electrical Energy Consumption ◽  
Multi Agent
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