scholarly journals Predicting Heavy Oil Production by Hybrid Data-Driven Intelligent Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Songhai Qin ◽  
Jianyi Liu ◽  
Xinping Yang ◽  
Yiyang Li ◽  
Lifeng Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Heavy Oil ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Control Factors ◽  
Geological Conditions ◽  
Intelligent Simulation ◽  
Recovery Methods

It is difficult to determine the main control factors owing to the complex geological conditions of heavy oil reservoirs, including high viscosity, a wide range of variation of crude oil, and the great difference in production between different recovery methods. In this context, main control factors of heavy oil production in different recovery methods are analyzed and obtained based on the Apriori algorithm. The prediction of heavy oil production is faced with problems such as low prediction precision and insufficient data usage. Therefore, a novel intelligent simulation and prediction model of data-driven heavy oil production with time-varying characteristics is established based on differential simulation, machine learning, and intelligent optimization theory, which overcomes the defects of nonlinear, multifactor, and low fitting precision of dynamic data of heavy oil development. The parameters of the heavy oil production time-varying simulation model are identified by the least square support vector machine (LSSVM) to realize the intelligent prediction of the production. Numerical experiments show that the prediction result of the novel intelligent simulation and prediction model is better than the BP neural network model and the GM (1, N) model. This study provides a novel feasible method for data-driven heavy oil production prediction, and it can be helpful in further study of data-driven heavy oil production.

scholarly journals Field data–driven online prediction model for icing load on power transmission lines

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 126-140
Author(s):  
Yong Chen ◽  
Peng Li ◽  
Wenping Ren ◽  
Xin Shen ◽  
Min Cao
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Transmission Lines ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Field Data ◽  
Power Transmission ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Online Prediction

Methods for the accurate prediction of icing loads in overhead transmission lines have become an important research topic for electrical power systems as they are necessary for ensuring the safety and stability of power-grid operations. Current machine learning models for the prediction of icing loads on transmission lines are afflicted by the following issues: insufficient prediction accuracy, high randomity in the selection of kernel functions and model parameters, and a lack of generalizability. To address these issues, we propose a field data–driven online prediction model for icing loads on transmission lines. First, the effects of the type of kernel function used in the support vector regression algorithm on the prediction accuracy of the model were analyzed using micrometeorological data and icing data collected by on-site monitoring systems. The particle swarm optimization algorithm was then used to optimize and determine the model parameters such as penalty coefficients. An offline support vector regression prediction model was thus constructed. Using the accurate online support vector regression algorithm, the weighting coefficients of the samples were dynamically adjusted to satisfy the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker conditions, which allowed online updates to be made to the regression function and prediction model. Finally, a simulation analysis was performed using actual icing incidents that occurred in a transmission line of the Yunnan Power Grid, which demonstrated that our model can make online predictions for the icing load on transmission lines in actual applications. Our model proved to be superior to conventional icing-load prediction models with regard to the single-step and multi-step prediction accuracies and generalizability. Hence, our prediction model will improve the decision-making processes regarding the deicing and maintenance of power transmission and transformation systems.

Study of heavy oil production ceasing options using laboratory research and mathematical modeling

2019 ◽  
pp. 32-35
Author(s):  
A.T. Zaripov ◽  
◽  
D.K. Shaikhutdinov ◽  
Ya.V. Zakharov ◽  
A.A. Bisenova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Heavy Oil ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Laboratory Research

scholarly journals Predicting Ink Transfer Rate of 3D Additive Printing Using EGBO Optimized Least Squares Support Vector Machine Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Shengpu Li ◽  
Yize Sun
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Transfer Rate ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Experimental Sample ◽  
Machine Model ◽  
Ink Transfer

Ink transfer rate (ITR) is a reference index to measure the quality of 3D additive printing. In this study, an ink transfer rate prediction model is proposed by applying the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM). In addition, enhanced garden balsam optimization (EGBO) is used for selection and optimization of hyperparameters that are embedded in the LSSVM model. 102 sets of experimental sample data have been collected from the production line to train and test the hybrid prediction model. Experimental results show that the coefficient of determination (R2) for the introduced model is equal to 0.8476, the root-mean-square error (RMSE) is 6.6 × 10 (−3), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is 1.6502 × 10 (−3) for the ink transfer rate of 3D additive printing.

scholarly journals Study on Quality Prediction of 2219 Aluminum Alloy Friction Stir Welding Based on Real-Time Temperature Signal

Materials ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (13) ◽  
pp. 3496
Author(s):  
Haijun Wang ◽  
Diqiu He ◽  
Mingjian Liao ◽  
Peng Liu ◽  
Ruilin Lai
Keyword(s):  
Aluminum Alloy ◽  
Friction Stir Welding ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Weld Quality ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Friction Stir ◽  
Temperature Signal ◽  
2219 Aluminum Alloy

The online prediction of friction stir welding quality is an important part of intelligent welding. In this paper, a new method for the online evaluation of weld quality is proposed, which takes the real-time temperature signal as the main research variable. We conducted a welding experiment with 2219 aluminum alloy of 6 mm thickness. The temperature signal is decomposed into components of different frequency bands by wavelet packet method and the energy of component signals is used as the characteristic parameter to evaluate the weld quality. A prediction model of weld performance based on least squares support vector machine and genetic algorithm was established. The experimental results showed that, when welding defects are caused by a sudden perturbation during welding, the amplitude of the temperature signal near the tool rotation frequency will change significantly. When improper process parameters are used, the frequency band component of the temperature signal in the range of 0~11 Hz increases significantly, and the statistical mean value of the temperature signal will also be different. The accuracy of the prediction model reached 90.6%, and the AUC value was 0.939, which reflects the good prediction ability of the model.

scholarly journals An Improved Whale Algorithm for Support Vector Machine Prediction of Photovoltaic Power Generation

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 212
Author(s):  
Yu-Wei Liu ◽  
Huan Feng ◽  
Heng-Yi Li ◽  
Ling-Ling Li
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Output Power ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Support Vector Machine Model ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Machine Model ◽  
Photovoltaic Power

Accurate prediction of photovoltaic power is conducive to the application of clean energy and sustainable development. An improved whale algorithm is proposed to optimize the Support Vector Machine model. The characteristic of the model is that it needs less training data to symmetrically adapt to the prediction conditions of different weather, and has high prediction accuracy in different weather conditions. This study aims to (1) select light intensity, ambient temperature and relative humidity, which are strictly related to photovoltaic output power as the input data; (2) apply wavelet soft threshold denoising to preprocess input data to reduce the noise contained in input data to symmetrically enhance the adaptability of the prediction model in different weather conditions; (3) improve the whale algorithm by using tent chaotic mapping, nonlinear disturbance and differential evolution algorithm; (4) apply the improved whale algorithm to optimize the Support Vector Machine model in order to improve the prediction accuracy of the prediction model. The experiment proves that the short-term prediction model of photovoltaic power based on symmetry concept achieves ideal accuracy in different weather. The systematic method for output power prediction of renewable energy is conductive to reducing the workload of predicting the output power and to promoting the application of clean energy and sustainable development.

scholarly journals Geomechanical modelling of cold heavy oil production with sand

Petroleum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Assef Mohamad-Hussein ◽  
Pablo Enrique Vargas Mendoza ◽  
Paolo Francesco Delbosco ◽  
Claudia Sorgi ◽  
Vincenzo De Gennaro ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heavy Oil ◽  
Oil Production

scholarly journals Research on a novel data-driven aging estimation method for battery systems in real-world electric vehicles

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 168781402110277
Author(s):  
Yankai Hou ◽  
Zhaosheng Zhang ◽  
Peng Liu ◽  
Chunbao Song ◽  
Zhenpo Wang
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Real World ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Recursive Least Squares ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Battery Degradation ◽  
Operational Data

Accurate estimation of the degree of battery aging is essential to ensure safe operation of electric vehicles. In this paper, using real-world vehicles and their operational data, a battery aging estimation method is proposed based on a dual-polarization equivalent circuit (DPEC) model and multiple data-driven models. The DPEC model and the forgetting factor recursive least-squares method are used to determine the battery system’s ohmic internal resistance, with outliers being filtered using boxplots. Furthermore, eight common data-driven models are used to describe the relationship between battery degradation and the factors influencing this degradation, and these models are analyzed and compared in terms of both estimation accuracy and computational requirements. The results show that the gradient descent tree regression, XGBoost regression, and light GBM regression models are more accurate than the other methods, with root mean square errors of less than 6.9 mΩ. The AdaBoost and random forest regression models are regarded as alternative groups because of their relative instability. The linear regression, support vector machine regression, and k-nearest neighbor regression models are not recommended because of poor accuracy or excessively high computational requirements. This work can serve as a reference for subsequent battery degradation studies based on real-time operational data.

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