scholarly journals A Multistage Dynamic Emergency Decision-Making Method considering the Satisfaction under Uncertainty Information

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Yong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Intuitionistic Fuzzy Numbers ◽  
Information Updating ◽  
Decision Making Problem ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision

Emergency decision-making (EDM) is of paramount importance, especially when the emergency occurs. The evolution nature of the emergency, such as multistage, uncertainty, dynamic, and information updating, has been playing a key role in the dynamic emergency decision-making process. However, most existing studies ignored the aforementioned nature. Our approach accounts for the dynamics inherent to a real emergency decision-making process and presents a multistage dynamic emergency decision-making (MSDEDM) procedure of a dynamic programming model based on decision-makers’ psychological reference satisfactory degree. Firstly, interval-valued trapezoidal intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IVTrIFNs) are used to depict the relevant fuzziness and uncertainty of information. Secondly, by considering the dynamic evolution process of emergency and the decision-makers’ psychological reference expectation effect, the principle of MSDEDM approach is presented. Based on the analysis, the dynamic model on the new psychological reference satisfactory parameter formula is presented to obtain the optimal satisfaction and weight of each stage. Then, the value utility function based on the DMs’ risk attitude is proposed to obtain the comprehensive value of each emergency alternative for each stage and achieve the ranking results of each stage. Furthermore, a case study involving the transportation emergency decision-making problem demonstrates that the proposed method can achieve selection of the optimal alternatives for each stage, as well as adjustment of the alternatives for neighbouring stages. Finally, the comparative analysis and sensitivity analysis for the results are used to further verify the feasibility and practicability of the proposed method.

scholarly journals A New Methodology for Hesitant Fuzzy Emergency Decision Making with Unknown Weight Information

Complexity ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaodi Liu ◽  
Zengwen Wang ◽  
Shitao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Programming Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Attribute Weights ◽  
Perceived Utility ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Emergency Event ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Ranking Order ◽  
Emergency Decision

Once an emergency event occurs, effective emergency measures should be taken. It is known that the emergency event possesses characteristics of limited time and information, harmfulness, and uncertainty, and the decision makers are often bounded rational under uncertainty and risk. This paper presents a novel approach to emergency decision making with hesitant fuzzy information, which takes regret aversion of the decision makers into account. Firstly, based on the idea of the water-filling theory in the field of wireless communications, a mathematical programming model that can convert the attribute values into a compatible scale and eliminate the influence of different physical dimensions is constructed to determine the attribute weights. Then, a group satisfaction degree function is introduced into the regret theory to depict the psychological behaviors of the decision makers, based on which the perceived utility value function of alternative is constructed. The total perceived utility values of alternatives can be computed, and the ranking order of alternatives is obtained. Finally, a case study on a fire and explosion accident is given to illustrate the application of the proposed method. Besides that, the comparisons show the feasibility and superiority of the proposed method.

scholarly journals Exploring Factors Affecting the Emergency Specialists’ Decision-Making in Case of Emergencies in Patients

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abbasali Ebrahimian ◽  
Seyed-Hossein Hashemi-Amrei ◽  
Mohammadreza Monesan
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Department ◽  
Qualitative Content Analysis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Emergency Situations ◽  
The Core ◽  
Semistructured Interviews ◽  
Emergency Decision

Introduction. Appropriate decision-making is essential in emergency situations; however, little information is available on how emergency decision-makers decide on the emergency status of the patients shifted to the emergency department of the hospital. This study aimed at explaining the factors that influence the emergency specialists’ decision-making in case of emergency conditions in patients. Methods. This study was carried out with a qualitative content analysis approach. The participants were selected based on purposive sampling by the emergency specialists. The data were collected through semistructured interviews and were analyzed using the method proposed by Graneheim and Lundman. Results. The core theme of the study was “efforts to perceive the acute health threats of the patient.” This theme was derived from the main classes, including “the identification of the acute threats based on the patient’s condition” and “the identification of the acute threats based on peripheral conditions.” Conclusions. The conditions governing the decision-making process about patients in the emergency department differ from the conditions in other health-care departments at hospitals. Emergency specialists may have several approaches to decide about the patients’ emergency conditions. Therefore, notably, the emergency specialists’ working conditions and the others’ expectations from these specialists should be considered.

scholarly journals A Novel Linguistic Z-Number QUALIFLEX Method and Its Application to Large Group Emergency Decision Making

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xue-Feng Ding ◽  
Li-Xia Zhu ◽  
Mei-Shun Lu ◽  
Qi Wang ◽  
Yi-Qi Feng
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Matrix ◽  
Large Group ◽  
Emergency Event ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
Alternative Solutions

After an unconventional emergency event occurs, a reasonable and effective emergency decision should be made within a short time period. In the emergency decision making process, decision makers’ opinions are often uncertain and imprecise, and determining the optimal solution to respond to an emergency event is a complex group decision making problem. In this study, a novel large group emergency decision making method, called the linguistic Z-QUALIFLEX method, is developed by extending the QUALIFLEX method using linguistic Z-numbers. The evaluations of decision makers on the alternative solutions are first expressed as linguistic Z-numbers, and the group decision matrix is then constructed by aggregating the evaluations of all subgroups. The QUALIFLEX method is used to rank the alternative solutions for the unconventional emergency event. Besides, a real-life example of emergency decision making is presented, and a comparison with existing methods is performed to validate the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed linguistic Z-QUALIFLEX can accurately express the evaluations of the decision makers and obtain a more reasonable ranking result of solutions for emergency decision making.

Study on Emergency Decision-Making of Natural Disaster Based on Collaboration of Multi-Agent

2013 ◽  
Vol 411-414 ◽  
pp. 2684-2693
Author(s):  
Yue E ◽  
Ye Ping Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Collaborative Decision Making ◽  
Agent Theory ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Multi Agent ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
Decision Making Model ◽  
Collaborative Decision

Based on the occurrence and evolution of the natural disaster is characteristic of uncertainty and complexity, in this article, Agent theory and technology is applied to emergency decision-making of natural disaster in China, built the disaster emergency collaborative decision-making framework based on multi-agent, design the collaborative decision-making model, discuss the emergency decision-making mechanism based on scenario-response, through effective collaboration based on multi-agent, achieve natural disaster dynamic emergency decision-making process.

Multi-attribute Group Decision-making (MAGDM) using Fuzzy Linguistic Modeling Integrated with the VIKOR Method for Car Purchasing Model

2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 0-0
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Vikor Method ◽  
Decision Making Problem ◽  
Purchasing Model ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Fuzzy Linguistic

The change in the trend of transportation, increasing per capita income, expectation of better lifestyle, easy finance, and reduced cost of the automobile are some of the main factors that enable a commoner to have his/her own car. Therefore, it is essential to comprise such features in cars that offer qualities enabling the ease of consumer’s decision-making and comfort to purchase a car individually. Purchasing a car is a complicated multi-criteria decision-making problem as an individual may have different preferences for different criteria attributes. The attributes may be conflicting in nature depending on the need of the individual customer. Generally, it becomes quite difficult to assign ratings to these attributes based on numeric values. Therefore, the decision-making process relies on an idiosyncratic finding of the decision-makers which is in practice fuzzy with uncertainities. Hence, this article is a case study that deals with a hierarchy MCDM approach in accordance with the fuzzy logic and VIKOR method to solve a car purchasing problem.

scholarly journals Risk mitigation in electric power systems: Where to start?

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Alshawish ◽  
Hermann de Meer
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Power Systems ◽  
Electric Power ◽  
Reactive Power ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Risk Attitude ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
Decision Making Process

Abstract Power grids are becoming increasingly intelligent. In this regard, they benefit considerably from the information technology (IT) networks coupled with their underlying operational technology (OT) networks. While IT networks provide sufficient controllability and observability of power grid assets such as voltage and reactive power controllers, distributed energy resources, among others, they make those critical assets vulnerable to cyber threats and risks. In such systems, however, several technical and economic factors can significantly affect the patching and upgrading decisions of their components including, but not limited to, limited time and budget as well as legal constraints. Thus, resolving all vulnerabilities at once could seem like an insuperable hurdle. To figure out where to start, an involved decision maker (e.g. a security team) has to prudently prioritize the possible vulnerability remediation actions. The key objective of prioritization is to efficiently reduce the inherent security risk to which the system in question is exposed. Due to the critical role of power systems, their decision makers tend to enhance the system resilience against extreme events. Thus, they seek to avoid decision options associated with likely severe risks. Practically, this risk attitude guides the decision-making process in such critical organizations and hence the sought-after prioritization as well.Therefore, the contribution of this work is to provide an integrated risk-based decision-support methodology for prioritizing possible remediation activities. It leverages the Time-To-Compromise security metric to quantitatively assess the risk of compromise. The developed risk estimator considers several factors including: i) the inherent assessment uncertainty, ii) interdependencies between the network components, iii) different adversary skill levels, and iv) public vulnerability and exploit information. Additionally, our methodology employs game theory principles to support the strategic decision-making process by constructing a chain of security games. Technically, the remediation actions are prioritized through successively playing a set of dependent zero-sum games. The underlying game-theoretical model considers carefully the stochastic nature of risk assessments and the specific risk attitude of the decision makers involved in the patch management process across electric power organizations.

scholarly journals Multi-stage emergency decision-making method based on cumulative prospect theory and intuitionistic fuzzy number

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junxiang Xu ◽  
Jingni Guo ◽  
Jin Zhang ◽  
Weihua Liu ◽  
Hui Ma
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Prospect Theory ◽  
Cumulative Prospect Theory ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Dynamic Adjustment ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
The Impact

Aiming at the problem where the dynamic adjustment of reference points under the impact of decision makers’ emotions may lead to different decision-making results, this research proposes a multi-stage emergency decision-making method with the emotion updating mechanism of decision makers. The method of setting dynamic reference points under the influence of decision-makers' emotions is given in this study, and the scenario value of each stage of emergency is calculated by using cumulative prospect theory, so as to describe the emotion renewal mechanism of decision-makers. The scenario weights of each stage are calculated, and the prospect values of alternatives at each stage are calculated according to the prospect value, input costs and start-up time values of the alternatives. Furthermore, by giving a calculation method of the weight of each stage, the overall values of the alternatives are calculated and the ranking of the alternatives is given. Taking Sichuan Tibet emergency rescue in China as an case analysis, the scientific rationality of the theory proposed in this paper is verified.

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