scholarly journals Whether Digital Financial Inclusion Can Improve Capital Misallocation or Not: A Study Based on the Moderating Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Guohua He ◽  
Lu Shen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Financial Inclusion ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Positive Effect

This paper discusses the impact of digital financial inclusion on regional capital’s turn from the fictitious to the substantial economy. The continuous decline of the capital efficiency of the real economy is an important reason for the misallocation of financial capital, such as the financialization of real enterprises. Development of the digital financial inclusion helps to relieve small and micro businesses from financing constraints, encourage civilian consumption, and improve services concerning issues of agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. Yet, its financial features also indicate potential systematic risks, manifested as the capital’s departure from its intended purpose of serving the substantial economy, given some beneficiaries’ investment in the fictitious economy. Based on the provincial panel data between 2011 and 2019, this paper constructs an index describing capital’s diversion from the fictitious to the substantial economy. This paper then analyzes the impact of digital financial inclusion on such a diversion of the regional capital, investigating the regulatory effects caused by the uncertainty in economic policies. Empirical study reveals that digital financial inclusion has an evident positive effect on regional capital’s diversion from the fictitious to the substantial economy but without any spatial spillover effect. Among the three subdimensions of digital financial inclusion-scope of coverage, depth of usage, and level of digitalization, the scope of coverage has the strongest positive effect, and digitization level, the weakest. The positive correlation between digital financial inclusion and capital diversion from the fictitious to the substantial economy is under negative regulation due to economic policy uncertainty. In other words, increasing uncertainty in the economic policy would weaken digital financial inclusion’s support of the substantial economy.

Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (8) ◽  
pp. 1344-1357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cem Işık ◽  
Ercan Sirakaya-Turk ◽  
Serdar Ongan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Demand Models ◽  
The Impact

The global economic outlook is more uncertain than ever before and sensitive to uncertainties related to a variety of economic policies decisions of all stakeholders and governments. These perceived uncertainties may be the culprit in shrinking the size of overall economic activity. Under increasing uncertainties, travel and vacation plans of consumers can be canceled or postponed. Therefore, policy-related economic uncertainties are expected to affect tourism demand beyond well-established economic and noneconomic factors. In this study, we explore the efficacy and the impact of the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index in predicting the tourism demand on international tourist arrivals (a measure of tourism demand) to the United States from Mexico and Canada over the period of January 1996–September 2017. The findings of the study reveal that EPU is a significant predictor as increases in the EPU index lead to decreases in tourism demand to the United States. Canadian tourists seem to be more sensitive to EPUs. Increases in the EPU index cause them to reduce Canadians’ vacations to the United States proportionally more than the Mexicans. To enhance the explanatory power of current models, the uncertainty can be a theoretically significant construct thus needs to be included when calibrating demand models.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Risk Spillover Networks and Risk Contagion Driver in Chinese Financial Markets: The Perspective of Economic Policy Uncertainty

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Zongxin Zhang ◽  
Ying Chen ◽  
Weijie Hou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

The global financial market shocks have intensified due to the COVID-19 epidemic and other impacts, and the impacts of economic policy uncertainty on the financial system cannot be ignored. In this paper, we construct asymmetric risk spillover networks of Chinese financial markets based on five sectors: bank, securities, insurance, diversified finance, and real estate. We investigate the complexity of the risk spillover effect of Chinese financial markets and the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the level of network contagion of financial risk. The study yields three findings. First, the cross-sectoral risk spillover effects of Chinese financial markets are asymmetric in intensity. The bank sector is systemically important in the risk spillover network. Second, the level of risk stress in the real estate sector has increased in recent years, and it plays an important role in the path of financial risk contagion. Third, Economic policy uncertainty has a significant positive impact on the level of network contagion of financial risk of Chinese financial markets.

ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND THE REAL ECONOMY OF SINGAPORE

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
KHANDOKAR ISTIAK
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Uncertainty Index ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates (for the first time) the impact of the economic policy uncertainties of Singapore and its major trading partners on Singapore’s industrial production and exports. The study uses monthly data from January 2003 to August 2019, correlation analysis, spillover index analysis and a structural vector autoregression model to perform the investigation. Using the newly invented Singaporean economic policy uncertainty index, the research finds that it is a good predictor of industrial production. It is found that, in general, uncertainty depresses Singapore’s industrial production and exports. The paper suggests that policymakers promote new entrepreneurship and build a skilled labor force to minimize the impact of uncertainty on the economy of Singapore.

Environmental Regulation, Economic Policy Uncertainty, and Green Technology Innovation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoqing Li ◽  
Zongyi Hu ◽  
Qing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Environmental Regulation ◽  
Technology Innovation ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Green Technology ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Green Innovation ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Green technology innovation is imperative to sustainable and environmentally sound economic development and is currently facing increasingly serious environmental threats. However, existing research has overlooked the uncertainties in economic policies. Based on the logical relationship between environmental regulation, economic policy uncertainty, and green technology innovation, this study empirically analyzed the quantitative relationship among these three variables using the fixed-effect panel method and provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017 for 30 administrative regions of China. The results show that environmental regulation is positively correlated with green innovation, whereas economic policy uncertainty has a negative influence on green innovation, thereby regulating the relationship between the remaining two factors. Moreover, considerable regional heterogeneity exists in these causal influences, i.e., environmental regulation promotes green innovation in the eastern and middle regions but not significantly in the west. The uncertainty actively moderates the impact of environmental regulation on green innovation in all regions with an adjustment coefficient of approximately 0.8; however, it inhibits green innovation in different degrees, especially in the eastern and middle regions. Based on empirical results, we conclude that strict and appropriate environmental regulations are necessary and effective in China to encourage green technology innovation, especially in regions with uncertain economic policies.

scholarly journals Do Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk Lead to Environmental Degradation? Evidence from Emerging Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5866
Author(s):  
Muhammad Khalid Anser ◽  
Qasim Raza Syed ◽  
Hooi Hooi Lean ◽  
Andrew Adewale Alola ◽  
Munir Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Ecological Footprint ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

Since the turn of twenty first century, economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR) have escalated across the globe. These two factors have both economic and environmental impacts. However, there exists dearth of literature that expounds the impact of EPU and GPR on environmental degradation. This study, therefore, probes the impact of EPU and GPR on ecological footprint (proxy for environmental degradation) in selected emerging economies. Cross-sectional dependence test, slope heterogeneity test, Westerlund co-integration test, fully modified least ordinary least square estimator, dynamic OLS estimator, and augmented mean group estimator are employed to conduct the robust analyses. The findings reveal that EPU and non-renewable energy consumption escalate ecological footprint, whereas GPR and renewable energy plunge ecological footprint. In addition, findings from the causality test reveal both uni-directional and bi-directional causality between a few variables. Based on the findings, we deduce several policy implications to accomplish the sustainable development goals in emerging economies.

The effect of economic policy uncertainty on US tourism net exports

2021 ◽  
pp. 135481662110253
Author(s):  
Abebe Hailemariam ◽  
Kris Ivanovski
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Structural Vector Autoregression ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Vector Autoregression Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Positive Shock ◽  
Net Export ◽  
Positive Effect

This article models the endogenously interrelated relationship between global economic policy uncertainty (EPU), world industrial production (WIP), and the demand for US tourism net export (TNX) expenditures. To do so, we apply an identified structural vector autoregression model over monthly data spanning from January 1999 to October 2020. Our findings reveal that a positive shock in WIP has a significant positive effect on demand for TNXs. In contrast, unanticipated increases in price and EPU have a statistically significant negative effect on TNXs. Our results show that, in the long run, a one standard deviation shock in global EPU explains about 26.05% of the variations in tourism net service exports.

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