scholarly journals An Annuitization Problem in the Tax-Deferred Annuity Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Yanan Li
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Programming ◽  
Value Function ◽  
Hjb Equation ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Dynamic Programming Principle ◽  
Value Functions ◽  
Deferred Annuity ◽  
Consumption Strategies ◽  
The Value Function ◽  
Dependent Mortality

This paper examines the optimal annuitization, investment, and consumption strategies of an individual facing a time-dependent mortality rate in the tax-deferred annuity model and considers both the case when the rate of buying annuities is unrestricted and the case when it is restricted. At the beginning, by using the dynamic programming principle, we obtain the corresponding HJB equation. Since the existence of the tax and the time-dependence of the value function make the corresponding HJB equation hard to solve, firstly, we analyze the problem in a simpler case and use some numerical methods to get the solution and some of its useful properties. Then, by using the obtained properties and Kuhn–Tucker conditions, we discuss the problem in general cases and get the value functions and the optimal annuitization strategies, respectively.

scholarly journals Hill Climbing on Value Estimates for Search-control in Dyna

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yangchen Pan ◽  
Hengshuai Yao ◽  
Amir-massoud Farahmand ◽  
Martha White
Keyword(s):  
Value Function ◽  
Gradient Algorithm ◽  
Hill Climbing ◽  
Value Functions ◽  
Current Estimate ◽  
Sampling Distributions ◽  
Current Value ◽  
Empirical Demonstration ◽  
Search Control ◽  
The Value Function

Dyna is an architecture for model based reinforcement learning (RL), where simulated experience from a model is used to update policies or value functions. A key component of Dyna is search control, the mechanism to generate the state and action from which the agent queries the model, which remains largely unexplored. In this work, we propose to generate such states by using the trajectory obtained from Hill Climbing (HC) the current estimate of the value function. This has the effect of propagating value from high value regions and of preemptively updating value estimates of the regions that the agent is likely to visit next. We derive a noisy projected natural gradient algorithm for hill climbing, and highlight a connection to Langevin dynamics. We provide an empirical demonstration on four classical domains that our algorithm, HC Dyna, can obtain significant sample efficiency improvements. We study the properties of different sampling distributions for search control, and find that there appears to be a benefit specifically from using the samples generated by climbing on current value estimates from low value to high value region.

Adaptive Learning of Drug Quality and Optimization of Patient Recruitment for Clinical Trials with Dropouts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhili Tian ◽  
Weidong Han ◽  
Warren B. Powell
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Trial ◽  
Clinical Trials ◽  
Dynamic Programming ◽  
Value Function ◽  
Standard Treatment ◽  
Treatment Effectiveness ◽  
Interim Analyses ◽  
Clinical Trial Program ◽  
Patient Enrollment ◽  
The Value Function

Problem definition: Clinical trials are crucial to new drug development. This study investigates optimal patient enrollment in clinical trials with interim analyses, which are analyses of treatment responses from patients at intermediate points. Our model considers uncertainties in patient enrollment and drug treatment effectiveness. We consider the benefits of completing a trial early and the cost of accelerating a trial by maximizing the net present value of drug cumulative profit. Academic/practical relevance: Clinical trials frequently account for the largest cost in drug development, and patient enrollment is an important problem in trial management. Our study develops a dynamic program, accurately capturing the dynamics of the problem, to optimize patient enrollment while learning the treatment effectiveness of an investigated drug. Methodology: The model explicitly captures both the physical state (enrolled patients) and belief states about the effectiveness of the investigated drug and a standard treatment drug. Using Bayesian updates and dynamic programming, we establish monotonicity of the value function in state variables and characterize an optimal enrollment policy. We also introduce, for the first time, the use of backward approximate dynamic programming (ADP) for this problem class. We illustrate the findings using a clinical trial program from a leading firm. Our study performs sensitivity analyses of the input parameters on the optimal enrollment policy. Results: The value function is monotonic in cumulative patient enrollment and the average responses of treatment for the investigated drug and standard treatment drug. The optimal enrollment policy is nondecreasing in the average response from patients using the investigated drug and is nonincreasing in cumulative patient enrollment in periods between two successive interim analyses. The forward ADP algorithm (or backward ADP algorithm) exploiting the monotonicity of the value function reduced the run time from 1.5 months using the exact method to a day (or 20 minutes) within 4% of the exact method. Through an application to a leading firm’s clinical trial program, the study demonstrates that the firm can have a sizable gain of drug profit following the optimal policy that our model provides. Managerial implications: We developed a new model for improving the management of clinical trials. Our study provides insights of an optimal policy and insights into the sensitivity of value function to the dropout rate and prior probability distribution. A firm can have a sizable gain in the drug’s profit by managing its trials using the optimal policies and the properties of value function. We illustrated that firms can use the ADP algorithms to develop their patient enrollment strategies.

scholarly journals Dynkin game under g-expectation in continuous time

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 459-470
Author(s):  
Helin Wu ◽  
Yong Ren ◽  
Feng Hu
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Stochastic Differential Equation ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Value Function ◽  
Backward Stochastic Differential Equation ◽  
Saddle Points ◽  
Value Functions ◽  
Dynkin Game ◽  
The Value Function

Abstract In this paper, we investigate some kind of Dynkin game under g-expectation induced by backward stochastic differential equation (short for BSDE). The lower and upper value functions $$\underline{V}_t=ess\sup \nolimits _{\tau \in {\mathcal {T}_t}} ess\inf \nolimits _{\sigma \in {\mathcal {T}_t}}\mathcal {E}^g_t[R(\tau ,\sigma )]$$ V ̲ t = e s s sup τ ∈ T t e s s inf σ ∈ T t E t g [ R ( τ , σ ) ] and $$\overline{V}_t=ess\inf \nolimits _{\sigma \in {\mathcal {T}_t}} ess\sup \nolimits _{\tau \in {\mathcal {T}_t}}\mathcal {E}^g_t[R(\tau ,\sigma )]$$ V ¯ t = e s s inf σ ∈ T t e s s sup τ ∈ T t E t g [ R ( τ , σ ) ] are defined, respectively. Under some suitable assumptions, a pair of saddle points is obtained and the value function of Dynkin game $$V(t)=\underline{V}_t=\overline{V}_t$$ V ( t ) = V ̲ t = V ¯ t follows. Furthermore, we also consider the constrained case of Dynkin game.

Dynamic programming and feedback analysis of the two dimensional tidal dynamics system

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 109
Author(s):  
Manil T. Mohan
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Dynamic Programming ◽  
Jacobi Equation ◽  
Value Function ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Tidal Dynamics ◽  
Infinite Dimensional ◽  
Bellman Principle ◽  
The Value Function ◽  
Hamilton Jacobi Equation

In this work, we consider the controlled two dimensional tidal dynamics equations in bounded domains. A distributed optimal control problem is formulated as the minimization of a suitable cost functional subject to the controlled 2D tidal dynamics equations. The existence of an optimal control is shown and the dynamic programming method for the optimal control of 2D tidal dynamics system is also described. We show that the feedback control can be obtained from the solution of an infinite dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi equation. The non-differentiability and lack of smoothness of the value function forced us to use the method of viscosity solutions to obtain a solution of the infinite dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi equation. The Bellman principle of optimality for the value function is also obtained. We show that a viscosity solution to the Hamilton-Jacobi equation can be used to derive the Pontryagin maximum principle, which give us the first order necessary conditions of optimality. Finally, we characterize the optimal control using the adjoint variable.

Geometric Asymptotic Approximation of Value Functions

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Axel Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Value Function ◽  
Payoff Function ◽  
The State ◽  
Second Derivative ◽  
Value Functions ◽  
State Variable ◽  
Specific Formula ◽  
Geometric Term ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Value Function

This paper characterizes the behavior of value functions in dynamic stochastic discounted programming models near fixed points of the state space. When the second derivative of the flow payoff function is bounded, the value function is proportional to a linear function plus geometric term. A specific formula for the exponent of this geometric term is provided. This exponent continuously falls in the rate of patience.If the state variable is a martingale, the second derivative of the value function is unbounded. If the state variable is instead a strict local submartingale, then the same holds for the first derivative of the value function. Thus, the proposed approximation is more accurate than Taylor series approximation.The approximation result is used to characterize locally optimal policies in several fundamental economic problems.

Bilevel Integer Programs with Stochastic Right-Hand Sides

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junlong Zhang ◽  
Osman Y. Özaltın
Keyword(s):  
Structural Properties ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Value Function ◽  
Integer Program ◽  
Value Functions ◽  
Integer Programs ◽  
Solution Algorithms ◽  
Right Hand ◽  
Solution Methods ◽  
The Value Function

We develop an exact value function-based approach to solve a class of bilevel integer programs with stochastic right-hand sides. We first study structural properties and design two methods to efficiently construct the value function of a bilevel integer program. Most notably, we generalize the integer complementary slackness theorem to bilevel integer programs. We also show that the value function of a bilevel integer program can be characterized by its values on a set of so-called bilevel minimal vectors. We then solve the value function reformulation of the original bilevel integer program with stochastic right-hand sides using a branch-and-bound algorithm. We demonstrate the performance of our solution methods on a set of randomly generated instances. We also apply the proposed approach to a bilevel facility interdiction problem. Our computational experiments show that the proposed solution methods can efficiently optimize large-scale instances. The performance of our value function-based approach is relatively insensitive to the number of scenarios, but it is sensitive to the number of constraints with stochastic right-hand sides. Summary of Contribution: Bilevel integer programs arise in many different application areas of operations research including supply chain, energy, defense, and revenue management. This paper derives structural properties of the value functions of bilevel integer programs. Furthermore, it proposes exact solution algorithms for a class of bilevel integer programs with stochastic right-hand sides. These algorithms extend the applicability of bilevel integer programs to a larger set of decision-making problems under uncertainty.

scholarly journals When Inaccuracies in Value Functions Do Not Propagate on Optima and Equilibria

Mathematics ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 1109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Wiszniewska-Matyszkiel ◽  
Rajani Singh
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Optimization ◽  
Dynamic Games ◽  
Value Function ◽  
Optimization Problems ◽  
A Priori ◽  
Value Functions ◽  
Feedback Controls ◽  
Time Dynamic ◽  
Coupled Equations ◽  
The Value Function

We study general classes of discrete time dynamic optimization problems and dynamic games with feedback controls. In such problems, the solution is usually found by using the Bellman or Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation for the value function in the case of dynamic optimization and a set of such coupled equations for dynamic games, which is not always possible accurately. We derive general rules stating what kind of errors in the calculation or computation of the value function do not result in errors in calculation or computation of an optimal control or a Nash equilibrium along the corresponding trajectory. This general result concerns not only errors resulting from using numerical methods but also errors resulting from some preliminary assumptions related to replacing the actual value functions by some a priori assumed constraints for them on certain subsets. We illustrate the results by a motivating example of the Fish Wars, with singularities in payoffs.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document