scholarly journals Simulation of the Final Size of the Evolution Curve of Coronavirus Epidemic in Morocco using the SIR Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Ousama Ifguis ◽  
Mohamed El Ghozlani ◽  
Fouzia Ammou ◽  
Abdelaziz Moutcine ◽  
Zeroual Abdellah
Keyword(s):  
Sir Model ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Final Size ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
Complex Models ◽  
Evolution Curve

Since the epidemic of COVID-19 was declared in Wuhan, Hubei Province of China, and other parts of the world, several studies have been carried out over several regions to observe the development of the epidemic, to predict its duration, and to estimate its final size, using complex models such as the SEIR model or the simpler ones such as the SIR model. These studies showed that the SIR model is much more efficient than the SEIR model; therefore, we are applying this model in the Kingdom of Morocco since the appearance of the first case on 2 March 2020, with the objective of predicting the final size of the epidemic.

scholarly journals Determination of critical decision points for COVID-19 measures in Japan

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Junu Kim ◽  
Kensaku Matsunami ◽  
Kozue Okamura ◽  
Sara Badr ◽  
Hirokazu Sugiyama
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Seir Model ◽  
Decision Points ◽  
Medical Institutions ◽  
The World

AbstractCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread throughout the world. The prediction of the number of cases has become essential to governments’ ability to define policies and take countermeasures in advance. The numbers of cases have been estimated using compartment models of infectious diseases such as the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model and its derived models. However, the required use of hypothetical future values for parameters, such as the effective reproduction number or infection rate, increases the uncertainty of the prediction results. Here, we describe our model for forecasting future COVID-19 cases based on observed data by considering the time delay (tdelay). We used machine learning to estimate the future infection rate based on real-time mobility, temperature, and relative humidity. We then used this calculation with the susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed (SEIR) model to forecast future cases with less uncertainty. The results suggest that changes in mobility affect observed infection rates with 5–10 days of time delay. This window should be accounted for in the decision-making phase especially during periods with predicted infection surges. Our prediction model helps governments and medical institutions to take targeted early countermeasures at critical decision points regarding mobility to avoid significant levels of infection rise.

scholarly journals The COVID-19 pandemic storm in India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Igor Nesteruk
Keyword(s):  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
Sharp Increase ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Final Size ◽  
The World ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Pandemic Wave

The sharp increase in the number of new COVID-19 patients in India in the second half of April 2021 has caused alarm around the world. A detailed analysis of this pandemic storm is still ahead. We present the results of anterior analysis using a generalized SIR-model (susceptible-infected-removed). The final size of this pandemic wave and its duration are predicted. Obtained results show that the COVID-19 pandemic will be a problem for mankind for a very long time.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 on several industries in context with the telehealth and telemedicine industry

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 01-02
Author(s):  
Ashish Gujrathi
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
World Health Organization ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
World Health ◽  
Growth Opportunities ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
New Challenges ◽  
Health Organization

Coronavirus (COVID-19) was recognized in late December in Hubei province of Wuhan city in China. This highly contagious disease, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is transmitted from humans to humans. After the first case in Wuhan, the disease rapidly spread to other parts of the globe. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) made an assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic. Thus, social-distancing became an important measure to stop the spread of this disease. Various countries across the world adopted nationwide lockdowns. This led to a completely new scenario for the world, where every business in each industry faced new challenges and witnessed new opportunities. Similarly, the telehealth and telemedicine industry has also witnessed newer growth opportunities.

Policy Review: Dubai Health Authority’s COVID-19 Rapid Response

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (Special) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Rapid Response ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
World Health ◽  
Healthcare Sector ◽  
Services Delivery ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World

Dubai Health Authority (DHA) is the entity regulating the healthcare sector in the Emirate of Dubai, ensuring high quality and safe healthcare services delivery to the population. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a pandemic on the 11th of March 2020, indicating to the world that further infection spread is very likely, and alerting countries that they should be ready for possible widespread community transmission. The first case of COVID-19 in the United Arab Emirates was confirmed on 29th of January 2020; since then, the number of cases has continued to grow exponentially. As of 8th of July 2020 (end of the day), 53,045 cases of coronavirus have been confirmed with a death toll of 327 cases. The UAE has conducted over 3,720,000 COVID-19 tests among UAE citizens and residents over the past four months, in line with the government’s plans to strengthen virus screening to contain the spread of COVID-19. There were vital UAE policies, laws, regulations, and decrees that have been announced for immediate implementation to limit the spread of COVID- 19, to prevent panic and to ensure the overall food, nutrition, and well-being are provided. The UAE is amongst the World’s Top 10 for COVID-19 Treatment Efficiency and in the World’s Top 20 for the implementation of COVID-19 Safety measures. The UAE’s mission is to work towards resuming life after COVID-19 and enter into the recovery phases. This policy research paper will discuss the Dubai Health Authority’s rapid response initiatives towards combating the control and spread of COVID-19 and future policy implications and recommendations. The underlying factors and policy options will be discussed in terms of governance, finance, and delivery.

Current updates on COVID-19 - A review

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Ghotekar D S ◽  
Vishal N Kushare ◽  
Sagar V Ghotekar
Keyword(s):  
World Health Organization ◽  
Common Cold ◽  
Respiratory Diseases ◽  
Gastrointestinal Diseases ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
World Health ◽  
The World ◽  
The Common ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that cause illness such as respiratory diseases or gastrointestinal diseases. Respiratory diseases can range from the common cold to more severe diseases. A novel coronavirus outbreak was first documented in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in December 2019. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic. A global coordinated effort is needed to stop the further spread of the virus. A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been identified in humans previously. Once scientists determine exactly what coronavirus it is, they give it a name (as in the case of COVID-19, the virus causing it is SARS-CoV-2).

Impact of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol on COVID-19 case-fatality rate reduction in Algeria. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Youssef Kada
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Therapeutic Protocol ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
At Home

BACKGROUND Covid-19 is an emerging infectious disease like viral zoonosis caused by new coronavirus SARS CoV 2. On December 31, 2019, Wuhan Municipal Health Commission in Hubei province (China) reported cases of pneumonia, the origin of which is a new coronavirus. Rapidly extendable around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) declares it pandemic on March 11, 2020. This pandemic reaches Algeria on February 25, 2020, date on which the Algerian minister of health, announced the first case of Covid-19, a foreign citizen. From March 1, a cluster is formed in Blida and becomes the epicentre of the coronavirus epidemic in Algeria, its total quarantine is established on March 24, 2020, it will be smoothly alleviated on April 24. A therapeutic protocol based on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin was put in place on March 23, for complicated cases, it was extended to all the cases confirmed on April 06. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to demonstrate the effectiveness of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol in Algeria, in particular after its extension to all patients diagnosed COVID-19 positive on RT-PCR test. We were able to illustrate this fact graphically, but not to prove it statistically because the design of our study, indeed in the 7 days which followed generalization of therapeutic protocol, case fatality rate decrease and doubling time increase, thus confirming the impact of wide and early prescription of hydroxychloroquin/azithromycin protocol. METHODS We have analyzed the data collected from press releases and follow-ups published daily by the Ministry of Health, we have studied the possible correlations of these data with certain events or decisions having a possible impact on their development, such as confinement at home and its reduction, the prescription of hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combination for serious patients and its extension to all positive COVID subjects. Results are presented in graphics, the data collection was closed on 31/05/2020. RESULTS Covid-19 pandemic spreads from February 25, 2020, when a foreign citizen is tested positive, on March 1 a cluster is formed in the city of Blida where sixteen members of the same family are infected during a wedding party. Wilaya of Blida becomes the epicentre of coronavirus epidemic in Algeria and lockdown measures taken, while the number of national cases diagnosed begins to increases In any event, the association of early containment measures combined with a generalized initial treatment for all positive cases, whatever their degree of severity, will have contributed to a reduction in the fatality rate of COVID 19 and a slowing down of its doubling time. CONCLUSIONS In Algeria, the rapid combination of rigorous containment measure at home and early generalized treatment with hydroxychloroquin have demonstrated their effectiveness in terms of morbidity and mortality, the classic measures of social distancing and hygiene will make it possible to perpetuate these results by reducing viral transmission, the only unknown, the reopening procedure which can only be started after being surrounded by precautions aimed at ensuring the understanding of the population. CLINICALTRIAL Algeria, Covid-19, pandemic, hydroxychloroquin, azithromycin, case fatality rate

scholarly journals Depression among health care students in the time of COVID-19: the mediating role of resilience in the hopelessness–depression relationship

2021 ◽  
pp. 008124632199445
Author(s):  
Tammy-lee Pretorius
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Traumatic Event ◽  
National Level ◽  
Depression Scale ◽  
Health Care Students ◽  
Mediating Role ◽  
First Case ◽  
Hopelessness Depression ◽  
The World

COVID-19 spread rapidly across the world, and by March 2020, the first case of COVID-19 was identified in South Africa. Lockdown-related measures such as restricted movement and isolation were implemented to contain the virus. Combined with these measures, factors such as economic decline, job losses, and food shortages can cause numerous mental health sequelae such as depression. Feelings of hopelessness and helplessness as well as cases of suicide have been reported around the world due to the pandemic and the associated feelings of anxiety and depression. The aims of this study were to investigate levels of hopelessness and depression in a sample of health care students. A random sample of students ( N = 174) enrolled in a health sciences programme at the University of the Western Cape completed the Beck Hopelessness Scale, the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale, and a three-item Resilience Scale. The results revealed high levels of hopelessness and depression compared to previously reported normative data for these scales. In addition, the indirect effects of hopelessness on depression were significant, demonstrating the mediating role of resilience in the hopelessness–depression relationship. These results highlight a call for universities to take proactive measures in providing students with free and easily accessible resources to help them cope and manage stress during a traumatic event. More importantly, at a national level, preventive measures should be implemented to strengthen resilience in young adults.

scholarly journals Progression and Trends in Virus from Influenza A to COVID-19: An Overview of Recent Studies

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1145
Author(s):  
Hakimeh Baghaei Daemi ◽  
Muhammad Fakhar-e-Alam Kulyar ◽  
Xinlin He ◽  
Chengfei Li ◽  
Morteza Karimpour ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Influenza A ◽  
H1n1 Virus ◽  
World Health ◽  
H1n1 Pandemic ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
First Case ◽  
Influenza A H1n1 ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization

Influenza is a highly known contagious viral infection that has been responsible for the death of many people in history with pandemics. These pandemics have been occurring every 10 to 30 years in the last century. The most recent global pandemic prior to COVID-19 was the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic. A decade ago, the H1N1 virus caused 12,500 deaths in just 19 months globally. Now, again, the world has been challenged with another pandemic. Since December 2019, the first case of a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection was detected in Wuhan. This infection has risen rapidly throughout the world; even the World Health Organization (WHO) announced COVID-19 as a worldwide emergency to ensure human health and public safety. This review article aims to discuss important issues relating to COVID-19, including clinical, epidemiological, and pathological features of COVID-19 and recent progress in diagnosis and treatment approaches for the COVID-19 infection. We also highlight key similarities and differences between COVID-19 and influenza A to ensure the theoretical and practical details of COVID-19.

Impact OF Covid-19 on Several Industries in Context with the Dialysis Industry

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 01-03
Author(s):  
Ashish Gujrathi
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
World Health Organization ◽  
World Health ◽  
Healthcare Sector ◽  
Growth Opportunities ◽  
Wuhan City ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World ◽  
New Challenges ◽  
Health Organization

Coronavirus (COVID-19) was recognized in late December in Hubei province of Wuhan city in China. This highly contagious disease, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is transmitted from humans to humans. After the first case in Wuhan, the disease rapidly spread to other parts of the globe. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) made an assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic. Thus, social-distancing became an important measure to stop the spread of this disease. Various countries across the world adopted nationwide lockdowns. This led to a completely new scenario for the world, where every business in each industry faced new challenges and witnessed new opportunities. Similarly, the medical personal protective industry, a vital part of the healthcare sector, also witnessed new growth opportunities.

scholarly journals Key-Gaskell syndrome in Brazil: first case report

2014 ◽  
Vol 66 (4) ◽  
pp. 1046-1050
Author(s):  
B.B.J. Torres ◽  
G.C. Martins ◽  
P.E. Ferian ◽  
B.C. Martins ◽  
M.A. Rachid ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Case Report ◽  
Poor Prognosis ◽  
Neuronal Degeneration ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
Definitive Treatment ◽  
Autonomic Ganglia ◽  
Nervous Systems ◽  
First Case ◽  
The World

Feline dysautonomia is a devastating disease characterized by neuronal degeneration in autonomic ganglia that results in clinical signs related to dysfunction of the sympathetic and parasympathetic nervous systems. The cause is unknown and this disease has a poor prognosis and no definitive treatment. Most reports have been described in few countries around the world, but the prevalence may be underestimated in countries like Brazil. This study describes the progression and clinicopathological changes of dysautonomia in a 17-month-old female Brazilian shorthair cat.

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