scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Pedestrian Evacuation under the Influence of Fire Products

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Chenghao Ye ◽  
Yuechan Liu ◽  
Chao Sun
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Traditional Methods ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Pedestrian Evacuation ◽  
Fire Evacuation ◽  
Evacuation Risk ◽  
Fire Scene ◽  
The Impact

Traditional methods are using FDS and Pathfinder for numerical simulation of fire evacuation and do not consider the impact of fire products on pedestrians, which will lead to erroneous evacuation results. In order to explore the impact of fire products on pedestrian evacuation when a fire occurs in a building, the pedestrian evacuation risk assessment results are closer to the actual situation. By establishing a full-scale model based on the pedestrian evacuation speed coefficient, a numerical simulation of the evacuation of pedestrians under the influence of fire products is carried out, and the influence of spray intensity and smoke exhaust rate on pedestrian evacuation is analysed at the same time. The results show that, compared with traditional methods, the fire evacuation model based on the evacuation speed coefficient can better reflect the evacuation effect of the real fire scene. At the same time, adding spray and smoke exhaust devices can give pedestrians more time to escape.

Material Modeling of Concrete for the Numerical Simulation of Steel Plate Reinforced Concrete Panels Subjected to Impacting Loading

2017 ◽  
Vol 139 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huiyun Li ◽  
Guangyu Shi
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Reinforced Concrete ◽  
Steel Plate ◽  
Material Model ◽  
Tensile Failure ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Flow Rule ◽  
Plastic Damage ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Concrete Model

The steel plate reinforced concrete (SC) walls and roofs are effective protective structures in nuclear power plants against aircraft attacks. The mechanical behavior of the concrete in SC panels is very complicated when SC panels are under the action of impacting loading. This paper presents a dynamic material model for concrete subjected to high-velocity impact, in which pressure hardening, strain rate effect, plastic damage, and tensile failure are taken into account. The loading surface of the concrete undergoing plastic deformation is defined based on the extended Drucker–Prager strength criterion and the Johnson–Cook material model. The associated plastic flow rule is utilized to evaluate plastic strains. Two damage parameters are introduced to characterize, respectively, the plastic damage and tensile failure of concrete. The proposed concrete model is implemented into the transient nonlinear dynamic analysis code ls-dyna. The reliability and accuracy of the present concrete material model are verified by the numerical simulations of standard compression and tension tests with different confining pressures and strain rates. The numerical simulation of the impact test of a 1/7.5-scale model of an aircraft penetrating into a half steel plate reinforced concrete (HSC) panel is carried out by using ls-dyna with the present concrete model. The resulting damage pattern of concrete slab and the predicted deformation of steel plate in the HSC panel are in good agreement with the experimental results. The numerical results illustrate that the proposed concrete model is capable of properly charactering the tensile damage and failure of concrete.

scholarly journals Pedestrian Evacuation Risk Assessment of Subway Station under Large-Scale Sport Activity

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (11) ◽  
pp. 3844 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zeyang Cheng ◽  
Jian Lu ◽  
Yi Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Sport Activity ◽  
Pedestrian Safety ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Subway Station ◽  
Force Model ◽  
Pedestrian Evacuation ◽  
Subway Stations ◽  
Evacuation Risk

Pedestrian evacuation risk of subway stations is an important concern in city management, as it not only endangers public safety but also affects the efficiency of urban subway transportation. Determination of how to effectively evaluate the pedestrian evacuation risk of subway stations is of great significance to improve pedestrian safety. Previous studies about the pedestrian evacuation of subway station were primarily focused on pedestrian moving behaviors and the evacuation modeling, and the evacuation scenario is the regular subway operation. There is a dearth of studies to quantify the pedestrian evacuation risk in the evacuation process, especially the pedestrian evacuation risk quantitative characterization of subway station in large-scale sport activity. The current study develops a quantitative pedestrian evacuation risk assessment model that integrates pedestrian stampede probability and pedestrian casualty. Then several different simulation scenarios based on the social force model (SFM) are simulated to evaluate the pedestrian evacuation risk of the “Olympic Park Station” in Beijing, China. The results demonstrate that the pedestrian evacuation method, pedestrian stampede location, and distance from the stampede location to the ticket gate have a large impact on pedestrian evacuation risk. Then, the pedestrian evacuation scenarios with the lowest and highest risk for the “Olympic Park Station” in large-scale sport activity are determined. The findings have potential applications in pedestrian safety protection of subway station during large-scale sports activity.

Designing Risk Qualitative Assessment on Fiber Optic Instalation Project in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Devi Pratami
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Fiber Optic ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Quality And Safety ◽  
Project Implementation ◽  
Cost Impact ◽  
Implementation Assessment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impact Cost

A project always has risks that can lead to project failure. In the project, a risk analysis is required to provide an evaluation for the project to proceed as planned. In the event of inadequate planning and ineffective control, it will result in irregularities identified as a risk to the project. This study aims to analyze the qualitative risk on Fiber Optic Installaion project in Sukabumi, West Java, Indonesia. In addition, risk assessment is undertaken on project implementation. Assessment of risk using the impact and probability to measure the impact of risk occurrence. The impacts are more detailed by classified by time impact, cost impact, quality impact, safety and security impact, proximity. The result is there are 36 risk that may occur and mostly risks are associaated by quality and safety&security impact.

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

Financial Risks of the Bank: Assessment and Mechanism of Neutralization

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-12
Author(s):  
Nelia Volkova ◽  
◽  
Alina Mukhina ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Stable Operation ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Relevant Today ◽  
Banking Institution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Introduction. The issue of financial risk management of commercial banks is quite relevant today, because the activity of banks is the most risky of all. The presence of risks in banking can lead to unexpected losses, namely the loss of own resources. That’s why for the stable operation of the bank without loss the priority is to assess the financial risks, which is the basis for their further neutralization. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to develop conceptual provisions for assessment financial risks and justifying the need to neutralize them. Results. The article analyzes the impact of risks on the financial stability of a banking institution. The main methods of bank risk assessment are considered. All these include the statistical method, the analytical method, the expert method, the analogue method and the combined method. The necessity of neutralization of financial risks in order to avoid negative consequences is substantiated. Also the methods of bank risks neutralization are considered. It should be noted that these methods of neutralization can not only be used, but also supplement the list with new methods must be done, which in the future will protect the bank from the influence of undesirable factors. A conceptual approach to the assessment and neutralization of financial risks is proposed. This conceptual approach aims to ensure effective assessment of the level of risk with their subsequent neutralization Conclusions. Use of a conceptual approach will allow an effective risk assessment and decision-making to avoid or accept risk. Thanks to using this approach, the banking institution will be able to react swiftly to the presence of financial risks and to prevent the occurrence of negative consequences, which may lead to a violation of the financial stability of the bank.

Implementasi Probability Impact Matriks (PIM) Untuk Mengidentifikasi Kemungkinan dan Dampak Risiko Proyek

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-47
Author(s):  
Sufa'atin Sufa'atin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cumulative Effect ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Project Construction ◽  
Index Terms ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
The Impact

One of the obstacles in project construction is that the project is experiencing delays. The delay is influenced by several factors including the absence of risk recording, the unavoidability of the opportunities and the impact of risks that arise in the project and its handling, and the neglected risks that may disrupt the project. Project risk is the cumulative effect of an uncertain event opportunity, which affects the project objectives. Several methods can be used to handle the occurrence of project risk, one of the methods used to perform a risk assessment is the Probability Impact Matrix (PIM). PIM is a method that can be used to analyze risk qualitatively based on probability and its impact. By using the PIM method, some of the opportunities and impacts of risks that may arise in the project can be identified. In addition, the PIM method can minimize the risks that arise in the project and quickly resolve the risks. Index Terms— Project, Risk, PIM, Possibility, Impact

IMPACT ASSESSMENT ON STORM SURGE RISKS TO CONTAINERS CONSIDERING GLOBAL WARMING

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Rikito Hisamatsu ◽  
Kei Horie ◽  
Kei Horie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Risk Maps ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Vulnerability Functions

Container yards tend to be located along waterfronts that are exposed to high risk of storm surges. However, risk assessment tools such as vulnerability functions and risk maps for containers have not been sufficiently developed. In addition, damage due to storm surges is expected to increase owing to global warming. This paper aims to assess storm surge impact due to global warming for containers located at three major bays in Japan. First, we developed vulnerability functions for containers against storm surges using an engineering approach. Second, we simulated storm surges at three major bays using the SuWAT model and taking global warming into account. Finally, we developed storm surge risk maps for containers based on current and future situations using the vulnerability function and simulated inundation depth. As a result, we revealed the impact of global warming on storm surge risks for containers quantitatively.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

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