scholarly journals Study on Fractal Multistep Forecast for the Prediction of Driving Behavior

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Longhai Yang ◽  
Hong Xu ◽  
Xiqiao Zhang ◽  
Shuai Li ◽  
Wenchao Ji
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Vehicle Speed ◽  
Trajectory Data ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Characteristic Analysis ◽  
Real Time Data

The application and development of new technology make it possible to acquire real-time data of vehicles. Based on these real-time data, the behavior of vehicles can be analyzed. The prediction of vehicle behavior provides data support for the fine management of traffic. This paper proposes speed and acceleration have fractal features by R/S analysis of the time series data of speed and acceleration. Based on the characteristic analysis of microscopic parameters, the characteristic indexes of parameters are quantified, the fractal multistep prediction model of microparameters is established, and the BP (back propagation neural networks) model is established to estimate predictable step of fractal prediction model. The fractal multistep prediction model is used to predict speed acceleration in the predictable step. NGSIM trajectory data are used to test the multistep prediction model. The results show that the proposed fractal multistep prediction model can effectively realize the multistep prediction of vehicle speed.

A distributed real-time data prediction framework for large-scale time-series data using stream processing

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 145-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kehe Wu ◽  
Yayun Zhu ◽  
Quan Li ◽  
Ziwei Wu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Data Prediction ◽  
Real Time Data

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a data prediction framework for scenarios which require forecasting demand for large-scale data sources, e.g., sensor networks, securities exchange, electric power secondary system, etc. Concretely, the proposed framework should handle several difficult requirements including the management of gigantic data sources, the need for a fast self-adaptive algorithm, the relatively accurate prediction of multiple time series, and the real-time demand. Design/methodology/approach First, the autoregressive integrated moving average-based prediction algorithm is introduced. Second, the processing framework is designed, which includes a time-series data storage model based on the HBase, and a real-time distributed prediction platform based on Storm. Then, the work principle of this platform is described. Finally, a proof-of-concept testbed is illustrated to verify the proposed framework. Findings Several tests based on Power Grid monitoring data are provided for the proposed framework. The experimental results indicate that prediction data are basically consistent with actual data, processing efficiency is relatively high, and resources consumption is reasonable. Originality/value This paper provides a distributed real-time data prediction framework for large-scale time-series data, which can exactly achieve the requirement of the effective management, prediction efficiency, accuracy, and high concurrency for massive data sources.

scholarly journals PREDICTION MODEL OF AMMONIA CONCENTRATION IN YELLOW-FEATHER BROILERS HOUSE DURING WINTER BASED ON EEMD-GRU

2020 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 59-70
Author(s):  
Zeying Xu ◽  
Xiuguo Zou ◽  
Zhengling Yin ◽  
Shikai Zhang ◽  
Yuanyuan Song ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Ventilation System ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Ammonia Concentration ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Central System ◽  
Mean Square Errors ◽  
Broiler House

In winter, the poor ventilation conditions in broiler houses may lead to high ammonia concentration, which affects the health of yellow-feather broilers or even causes the death of many broilers. This research used a machine learning model to predict the ammonia concentration in a broiler house during winter. After analysis, it was found that the ammonia generation in the broiler house was a gradual accumulation featured by non-linear data. After the broilers entered the broiler house for several days, and the ammonia concentration reached a certain value, a ventilation system was used for regulating the concentration. Firstly, the back-propagation (BP) neural network model and gated recurrent unit (GRU) model were used for predicting the ammonia concentration, respectively. Then, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) was performed on the time series data of ammonia concentration in the broiler house. After that, the EEMD-GRU prediction model has been established for the intrinsic mode function (IMF) components and the temperature and humidity data in the broiler house. Finally, all component results were summarized to obtain the final prediction result. A comparison was conducted among the prediction results obtained by the above three models. The results show that the root mean square errors of the above three models are 6.2 ppm, 4.4 ppm, and 2.4 ppm, respectively, and the average absolute errors were 4.9 ppm, 2.8 ppm, and 1.6 ppm, respectively. It could be seen that the EEMD-GRU model had higher accuracy in predicting the ammonia concentration in the broiler house. The EEMD-GRU model can effectively predict the ammonia concentration in broiler houses, facilitating the feedback to the central system for timely adjustment.

scholarly journals PENGEMBANGAN MODEL PREDIKSI MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) BERBASIS PADA HASIL ANALISIS DATA REAL TIME MULTIVARIATE MJO (RMM1 DAN RMM2) (PREDICTION MODEL DEVELOPMENT MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) BASED ON THE RESULTS OF DATA ANALYSIS ...

Agromet ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Evana ◽  
Sobri Effendy ◽  
Eddy Hermawan
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Model ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Outgoing Longwave Radiation ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Empirical Orthogonal Functions ◽  
Wave Radiation ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Coverage Area

Background of this research is the importance of study on the Madden Julian Oscillation, the dominant oscillation in the equator area. MJO cycle showed by cloud cluster growing in the Indian Ocean then moved to the east and form a cycle with a range of 40-50 days and the coverage area from 10N-10S. Method that used to predict RMM is Box-Jenkins based on ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) statistical analysis. The data used RMM daily data period 1 Maret 1979–1 Maret 2009 (30 years). RMM1 and RMM2 is an index for monitoring MJO. This is based on two empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) from the combined average zonal 850hPa wind, 200hPa zonal wind, and satellite-observed Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) data. The results in form of the Power Spectral Density (PSD) graph Real Time Multivariate MJO (RMM) and long wave radiation (OLR = Outgoing Longwave Radiation) at the position 100° BT, 120° BT, and 140°BT that show the wave pattern (spectrum pattern) and clearly shows the oscillation periods. There is a close relation between RMM1 with OLR at the position 100oBT that characterized the PSD value about 45 day. Through Box-Jenkins method, the prediction model that close to time series data of RMM1 and RMM2 is ARIMA (2,1,2), that mean the forecasts of RMM data for the future depending on one time previously and the error one time before. Prediction model for Zt = Zt = 1,681 Zt-1 – 0,722 Zt-2 - 0,02 at-1 - 0,05 at-2.. Prediction model for RMM2 is Zt = 1,714 Zt-1 – 0,764 Zt-2 - 0,109 at-1 - 0,05 at-2.. The flood case in Jakarta January-February 1996 and 2002 are one of real evidence that made the MJO prediction important. MJO with active phase dominant cover almost the entire Indonesia west area at that moment.

scholarly journals A Real-Time Data Analysis Platform for Short-Term Water Consumption Forecasting with Machine Learning

Forecasting ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 682-694
Author(s):  
Aida Boudhaouia ◽  
Patrice Wira
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Real Time Data ◽  
Analysis Platform

This article presents a real-time data analysis platform to forecast water consumption with Machine-Learning (ML) techniques. The strategy fully relies on a web-oriented architecture to ensure better management and optimized monitoring of water consumption. This monitoring is carried out through a communicating system for collecting data in the form of unevenly spaced time series. The platform is completed by learning capabilities to analyze and forecast water consumption. The analysis consists of checking the data integrity and inconsistency, in looking for missing data, and in detecting abnormal consumption. Forecasting is based on the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and the Back-Propagation Neural Network (BPNN). After evaluation, results show that the ML approaches can predict water consumption without having prior knowledge about the data and the users. The LSTM approach, by being able to grab the long-term dependencies between time steps of water consumption, allows the prediction of the amount of consumed water in the next hour with an error of some liters and the instants of the 5 next consumed liters in some milliseconds.

scholarly journals Study on real-time prediction model of railway passenger flow based on big data technology

2022 ◽  
Vol 355 ◽  
pp. 02025
Author(s):  
Yiyi Yin ◽  
Yong Zhang ◽  
Zhengzheng Wei ◽  
Xiang Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Big Data ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Message Queue ◽  
Passenger Flow ◽  
Time Prediction ◽  
Real Time Data ◽  
Railway Passenger ◽  
Big Data Technology

In order to solve the limitation of traditional offline forecasting application scenarios, the author uses a variety of big data open source frameworks and tools to combine with railway real-time data, and proposes a real-time prediction model of railway passenger flow. The model architecture is divided into four levels from bottom to top: data source layer, data transmission layer, prediction calculation layer and application layer. The main components of the model are data flow and prediction flow. Through message queue and ETL, the data process part realizes the synchronization of offline data and real-time data; through the big data technology frameworks such as Spark, Redis and Hive and the GBDT (Gradient Boosting Tree) algorithm, the prediction process partially realizes the real-time passenger flow of the train OD section prediction. The experimental results show that the model proposed by the author has certain practicability and accuracy both in performance and prediction accuracy.

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