scholarly journals A Multivariate and Multistage Medium- and Long-Term Streamflow Prediction Based on an Ensemble of Signal Decomposition Techniques with a Deep Learning Network

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Muhammad Sibtain ◽  
Xianshan Li ◽  
Snoober Saleem
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Streamflow Prediction ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Decomposition Approach ◽  
Decomposition Stage ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Monthly Streamflow

The accuracy and consistency of streamflow prediction play a significant role in several applications involving the management of hydrological resources, such as power generation, water supply, and flood mitigation. However, the nonlinear dynamics of the climatic factors jeopardize the development of efficient prediction models. Therefore, to enhance the reliability and accuracy of streamflow prediction, this paper developed a three-stage hybrid model, namely, IVL (ICEEMDAN-VMD-LSTM), which integrated improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with additive noise (ICEEMDAN), variational mode decomposition (VMD), and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network. Monthly data series of streamflow, temperature, and precipitation in the Swat River Watershed, Pakistan, from January 1971 to December 2015 was used as a case study. Firstly, the correlation analysis and the two-stage decomposition approach were employed to select suitable inputs for the proposed model. ICEEMDAN was employed as a first decomposition stage, to decompose the three data series into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residual component. In the second decomposition stage, the component of high frequency (IMF1) was decomposed by VMD, as the second decomposition. Afterward, all the components obtained through the correction analysis and the two-stage decomposition approach were predicted by using the LSTM network. Finally, the predicted results of all components were aggregated, to formulate an ensemble prediction for the original monthly streamflow series. The predicted results showed that the performance of the proposed model was superior to the other developed models, in respect of several evaluation benchmarks, demonstrating the applicability of the proposed IVL model for monthly streamflow prediction.

scholarly journals An Ensemble Prediction Model for Potential Student Recommendation Using Machine Learning

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 728 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijuan Yan ◽  
Yanshen Liu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Student Performance ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Importance Analysis ◽  
Better Than

Student performance prediction has become a hot research topic. Most of the existing prediction models are built by a machine learning method. They are interested in prediction accuracy but pay less attention to interpretability. We propose a stacking ensemble model to predict and analyze student performance in academic competition. In this model, student performance is classified into two symmetrical categorical classes. To improve accuracy, three machine learning algorithms, including support vector machine (SVM), random forest, and AdaBoost are established in the first level and then integrated by logistic regression via stacking. A feature importance analysis was applied to identify important variables. The experimental data were collected from four academic years in Hankou University. According to comparative studies on five evaluation metrics (precision, recall, F1, error, and area   under   the   receiver   operating   characteristic   curve ( AUC ) in this analysis, the proposed model generally performs better than compared models. The important variables identified from the analysis are interpretable, they can be used as guidance to select potential students.

scholarly journals A Deep Learning Prediction Model Based on Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition and Cluster Analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guohui Li ◽  
Songling Zhang ◽  
Hong Yang
Keyword(s):  
Deep Learning ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Extreme Point ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Symmetric Mode ◽  
Intrinsic Mode Functions ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Proposed Model

Aiming at the irregularity of nonlinear signal and its predicting difficulty, a deep learning prediction model based on extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition (ESMD) and clustering analysis is proposed. Firstly, the original data is decomposed by ESMD to obtain the finite number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and residuals. Secondly, the fuzzy c-means is used to cluster the decomposed components, and then the deep belief network (DBN) is used to predict it. Finally, the reconstructed IMFs and residuals are the final prediction results. Six kinds of prediction models are compared, which are DBN prediction model, EMD-DBN prediction model, EEMD-DBN prediction model, CEEMD-DBN prediction model, ESMD-DBN prediction model, and the proposed model in this paper. The same sunspots time series are predicted with six kinds of prediction models. The experimental results show that the proposed model has better prediction accuracy and smaller error.

scholarly journals An Ensemble Model of Wind Speed Forecasting Based on Variational Mode Decomposition and Bare-Bones Fireworks Algorithm

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Jicheng Quan ◽  
Li Shang
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Prediction Accuracy ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Feature Reduction ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Wind Speed Forecasting ◽  
Proposed Model

Wind energy is one of the fastest growing renewable energy sources. Wind speed forecasting is essential to enhance the utilization of wind energy. Various prediction models have been developed to improve the prediction accuracy of wind speed. However, wind speed time series has nonlinearity, fluctuation, and intermittence, which makes the prediction difficult. Existing prediction models ignore data decomposition and feature reduction and suffer from the deficiency of individual models. This paper proposes a novel ensemble prediction model, which integrates data preprocessing, feature selection, parameter optimization, three intelligent prediction models, and an ensemble strategy. To improve prediction performance, a highly efficient optimization algorithm is applied to determine the individual models’ optimal parameters. Furthermore, partial least square regression is used to calculate combination weight. Additionally, two 10 min datasets from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are employed for one-step-ahead prediction. Among the involved models, the proposed model can obtain the best prediction accuracy. The experimental results indicate that the mean absolute percent errors of the proposed model are 7.97% and 9.99%, which are lower than the comparison methods. Pearson’s test reveals that the proposed approach can have the strongest association between the actual data and the prediction results.

scholarly journals Developing an ANN Based Streamflow Forecast Model Utilizing Data-Mining Techniques to Improve Reservoir Streamflow Prediction Accuracy: A Case Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 1135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Zamanisabzi ◽  
James Phillip King ◽  
Naci Dilekli ◽  
Bahareh Shoghli ◽  
Shalamu Abudu
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Physical Parameters ◽  
Streamflow Prediction ◽  
Data Mining Techniques ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Data Extracting

This study illustrates the benefits of data pre-processing through supervised data-mining techniques and utilizing those processed data in an artificial neural networks (ANNs) for streamflow prediction. Two major categories of physical parameters such as snowpack data and time-dependent trend indices were utilized as predictors of streamflow values.  Correlation analysis of different models indicate that, for the period of January to June, using fewer predictors led to simpler modeling with equivalent accuracy on daily prediction models. This did not hold in all periods. For monthly prediction models, accuracy was improved compared to earlier works done to predict monthly streamflow for the same case of Elephant Butte Reservoir (EB), NM. Overall, superior prediction performance was achieved by utilizing data-mining techniques for pre-processing historical data, extracting the most effective predictors, correlation analysis, extracting and utilizing combined climate variability indices, physical indices, and employing several developed ANNs for different prediction periods of the year.

scholarly journals Multiscale nonlinear model for monthly streamflow forecasting: a wavelet-based approach

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 424-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maheswaran Rathinasamy ◽  
Rakesh Khosa
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Models ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Streamflow Forecasting ◽  
Volterra Models ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Streamflow Data ◽  
Flow Medium

The dynamics of the streamflow in rivers involve nonlinear and multiscale phenomena. An attempt is made to develop nonlinear models combining wavelet decomposition with Volterra models. This paper describes a methodology to develop one-month-ahead forecasts of streamflow using multiscale nonlinear models. The method uses the concept of multiresolution decomposition using wavelets in order to represent the underlying integrated streamflow dynamics and this information, across scales, is then linked together using the first- and second-order Volterra kernels. The model is applied to 30 river data series from the western USA. The mean monthly data series of 30 rivers are grouped under the categories low, medium and high. The study indicated the presence of multiscale phenomena and discernable nonlinear characteristics in the streamflow data. Detailed analyses and results are presented only for three stations, selected to represent the low-flow, medium-flow and high-flow categories, respectively. The proposed model performance is good for all the flow regimes when compared with both the ARMA-type models as well as nonlinear models based on chaos theory.

scholarly journals Forecasting Carbon Price with Secondary Decomposition Algorithm and Optimized Extreme Learning Machine

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 8413
Author(s):  
Jianguo Zhou ◽  
Qiqi Wang
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Learning Machine ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Carbon Price ◽  
Bald Eagle ◽  
Carbon Trading ◽  
Carbon Markets ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Learning Machine

Carbon trading is a significant mechanism created to control carbon emissions, and the increasing enthusiasm for participation in the carbon trading market has forced the emergence of higher-precision carbon price prediction models. Facing the complexity of carbon price time series, this paper proposes a carbon price forecasting hybrid model based on secondary decomposition and an improved extreme learning machine (ELM). First, the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) is utilized to decompose the carbon price several intrinsic modal functions to initially weaken the non-linearity of the original carbon price data. Secondly, the first intrinsic mode function (IMF1) with the strongest volatility is processed by the variational mode decomposition (VMD). Then, the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) is applied to obtain the model input variables for subsequences. Finally, the ELM improved by the bald eagle search (BES) algorithm is utilized to make predictions. In the empirical analysis, five actual datasets from three carbon markets are used to verify the prediction performance of the proposed model. Based on the six evaluation indicators of the predicted results, the proposed model is the best performer among all models, which suggests that CEEMDAN-VMD-BES-ELM is effective and stable in predicting carbon price.

scholarly journals Diversity Balancing for Two-Stage Collaborative Filtering in Recommender Systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liang Zhang ◽  
Quanshen Wei ◽  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Baojiao Wang ◽  
Wen-Hsien Ho
Keyword(s):  
Collaborative Filtering ◽  
Recommender Systems ◽  
Social Relationships ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The Social ◽  
Item List ◽  
Ranking Strategy ◽  
High Prediction ◽  
Optimization Mechanism

Conventional recommender systems are designed to achieve high prediction accuracy by recommending items expected to be the most relevant and interesting to users. Therefore, they tend to recommend only the most popular items. Studies agree that diversity of recommendations is as important as accuracy because it improves the customer experience by reducing monotony. However, increasing diversity reduces accuracy. Thus, a recommendation algorithm is needed to recommend less popular items while maintaining acceptable accuracy. This work proposes a two-stage collaborative filtering optimization mechanism that obtains a complete and diversified item list. The first stage of the model incorporates multiple interests to optimize neighbor selection. In addition to using conventional collaborative filtering to predict ratings by exploiting available ratings, the proposed model further considers the social relationships of the user. A novel ranking strategy is then used to rearrange the list of top-N items while maintaining accuracy by (1) rearranging the area controlled by the threshold and by (2) maximizing popularity while maintaining an acceptable reduction in accuracy. An extensive experimental evaluation performed in a real-world dataset confirmed that, for a given loss of accuracy, the proposed model achieves higher diversity compared to conventional approaches.

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