scholarly journals An Advanced Hybrid Forecasting System for Wind Speed Point Forecasting and Interval Forecasting

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Haipeng Zhang ◽  
Hua Luo
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Wind Power Integration ◽  
Speed Prediction ◽  
Hybrid Forecasting ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Multiple Prediction ◽  
Combined Forecasting

Ultra-short-term wind speed prediction can assist the operation and scheduling of wind turbines in the short term and further reduce the adverse effects of wind power integration. However, as wind is irregular, nonlinear, and nonstationary, to accurately predict wind speed is a difficult task. To this end, researchers have made many attempts; however, they often use only point forecasting or interval forecasting, resulting in imperfect prediction results. Therefore, in this paper, we developed a prediction system integrating an advanced data preprocessing strategy, a novel optimization model, and multiple prediction algorithms. This combined forecasting system can overcome the inherent disadvantages of the traditional forecasting methods and further improve the prediction performance. To test the effectiveness of the forecasting system, the 10-min and one-hour wind speed sequences from the Sotavento wind farm in Spain were applied for conducting comparison experiments. The results of both the interval forecasting and point forecasting indicated that, in terms of the forecasting capability and stability, the proposed system was better than the compared models. Therefore, because of the minimum prediction error and excellent generalization ability, we consider this forecasting system to be an effective tool to assist smart grid programming.

scholarly journals Multi-time scale wind speed prediction based on WT-bi-LSTM

2020 ◽  
Vol 309 ◽  
pp. 05011
Author(s):  
Jinyong Xiang ◽  
Zhifeng Qiu ◽  
Qihan Hao ◽  
Huhui Cao
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wavelet Decomposition ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Speed Prediction ◽  
Long Short Term Memory ◽  
Auto Regression

The accurate and reliable wind speed prediction can benefit the wind power forecasting and its consumption. As a continuous signal with the high autocorrelation, wind speed is closely related to the past and future moments. Therefore, to fully use the information of two direction, an auto-regression model based on the bi-directional long short term memory neural network model with wavelet decomposition (WT-bi-LSTM) is built to predict the wind speed at multi-time scales. The proposed model are validated by using the actual wind speed series from a wind farm in China. The validation results demonstrated that, compared with other four traditional models, the proposed strategy can effectively improve the accuracy of wind speed prediction.

scholarly journals Sample Selection Based on Active Learning for Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 337 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Yang ◽  
Xin Zhao ◽  
Haikun Wei ◽  
Kanjian Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Active Learning ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Sample Selection ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Training Samples ◽  
Speed Prediction

Wind speed prediction is the key to wind power prediction, which is very important to guarantee the security and stability of the power system. Due to dramatic changes in wind speed, it needs high-frequency sampling to describe the wind. A large number of samples are generated and affect modeling time and accuracy. Therefore, two novel active learning methods with sample selection are proposed for short-term wind speed prediction. The main objective of active learning is to minimize the number of training samples and ensure the prediction accuracy. In order to verify the validity of the proposed methods, the results of support vector regression (SVR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models with different training sets are compared. The experimental data are from a wind farm in Jiangsu Province. The simulation results show that the two novel active learning methods can effectively select typical samples. While reducing the number of training samples, the prediction performance remains almost the same or slightly improved.

Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction on Base of Improved Least Squares Support Vector Machine

2014 ◽  
Vol 599-601 ◽  
pp. 1972-1975
Author(s):  
Zheng Zhao ◽  
Long Xin Zhang ◽  
Hai Tao Liu ◽  
Zi Rui Liu
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Neural Network Prediction ◽  
Speed Prediction

Accurate wind speed prediction is of significance to improve the ability to coordinate operation of a wind farm with a power system and ensure the safety of power grid operation. According to the randomness and volatility of wind speed, it is put forward that a WD_GA_LS_SVM short-term wind speed combination prediction model on basis of Wavelet decomposition (WD), Genetic alogorithms (GA) optimization and Least squares support vector machine (LS_SVM). Short-term wind speed prediction is carried out and compared with the neural network prediction model with use of the measured data of a wind farm. The results of error analysis indicate the combination prediction model selected is of higher prediction accuracy.

scholarly journals Accuracy of wind speed predictability with heights using Recurrent Neural networks

2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (4) ◽  
pp. 908-918
Author(s):  
M. Mohandes ◽  
S. Rehman ◽  
H. Nuha ◽  
M.S. Islam ◽  
F.H. Schulze
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Speed Prediction ◽  
Wind Power Integration ◽  
The Future ◽  
Speed Prediction ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Height Increase ◽  
Absolute Percent Error ◽  
Better Than

Accurate prediction of wind speed in future time domain is critical for wind power integration into the grid. Wind speed is usually measured at lower heights while the hub heights of modern wind turbines are much higher in the range of 80-120m. This study attempts to better understand the predictability of wind speed with height. To achieve this, wind data was collected using Laser Illuminated Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) system at 20m, 40m, 50m, 60m, 80m, 100m, 120m, 140m, 160m, and 180m heights. This hourly averaged data is used for training and testing a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) for the prediction of wind speed for each of the future 12 hours, using 48 previous values. Detailed analyses of short-term wind speed prediction at different heights and future hours show that wind speed is predicted more accurately at higher heights.For example, the mean absolute percent error decreases from 0.19 to 0.16as the height increase from 20m to 180m, respectively for the 12 th future hour prediction. The performance of the proposed method is compared with Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) method. Results show that RNN performed better than MLP for most of the cases presented here at the future 6th hour.

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