Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty Framework for Multiscale, Multiphysics Light Water Reactor Core Analysis

Tremendous work has been done in the Light Water Reactor (LWR) Modelling and Simulation (M&S) uncertainty quantification (UQ) within the framework of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)/Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) LWR Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (UAM) benchmark, which aims to investigate the uncertainty propagation in all M&S stages of the LWRs and to guide uncertainty and sensitivity analysis methodology development. The Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methodologies have been developed and implemented within the framework of the LWR UAM benchmark to provide a realistic predictive simulation capability without compromising the safety margins. This paper describes the current status of the methodological development, assessment, and integration of the BEPU methodology to facilitate the multiscale, multiphysics LWR core analysis. The comparative analysis of the results in the stand-alone multiscale neutronics phase (Phase I) is first reported for understanding the general trend of the uncertainty of core parameters due to the nuclear data uncertainty. It was found that the predicted uncertainty of the system eigenvalue is highly dependent on the choice of the covariance libraries used in the UQ process and is less sensitive to the solution method, nuclear data library, and UQ method. High-to-Low (Hi2Lo) model information approaches for multiscale M&S are introduced for the core single physics phase (Phase II). In this phase, the other physics (fuel and moderator), providing feedback to neutronics M&S in a LWR core, and time-dependent phenomena are considered. Phase II is focused on uncertainty propagation in single physics models which are components of the LWR core coupled multiphysics calculations. The paper discusses the link and interactions between Phase II to the multiphysics core and system phase (Phase III), that is, the link between uncertainty propagation in single physics on local scale and multiphysics uncertainty propagation on the core scale. Particularly, the consistency in uncertainty assessment between higher-fidelity models implemented in fuel performance codes and the rather simplified models implemented in thermal-hydraulics codes, to be used for coupling with neutronics in Phase III is presented. Similarly, the uncertainty quantification on thermal-hydraulic models is established on a relatively small scale, while these results will be used in Phase III at the core scale, sometimes with different codes or models. Lastly, the up-to-date UQ method for the coupled multiphysics core calculation in Phase III is presented, focusing on the core equilibrium cycle depletion calculation with associated uncertainties.