scholarly journals The Diffusive Model for West Nile Virus on a Periodically Evolving Domain

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Abdelrazig K. Tarboush ◽  
Zhengdi Zhang

In this paper, we investigate the impact of a periodically evolving domain on the dynamics of the diffusive West Nile virus. A reaction-diffusion model on a periodically and isotropically evolving domain which describes the transmission of the West Nile virus is proposed. In addition to the classical basic reproduction number, the spatial-temporal basic reproduction number depending on the periodic evolution rate is introduced and its properties are discussed. Under some conditions, we explore the long-time behavior of the virus. The virus will go extinct if the spatial-temporal basic reproduction number is less than or equal to one. The persistence of the virus happens if the spatial-temporal basic reproduction number is greater than one. We consider special case when the periodic evolution rate is equivalent to one to better understand the impact of the periodic evolution rate on the persistence or extinction of the virus. Some numerical simulations are performed in order to illustrate our analytical results. Our theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that the periodic change of the habitat range plays an important role in the West Nile virus transmission, in particular, the increase of periodic evolution rate has positive effect on the spread of the virus.

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Junli Liu ◽  
Tailei Zhang ◽  
Qiaoling Chen

In this paper, we study an avian (host) stage-structured West Nile virus model, which incorporates seasonality as well as stage-specific mosquito biting rates. We first introduce the basic reproduction number R0 for this model and then show that the disease-free periodic solution is globally asymptotically stable when R0<1, while there exists at least one positive periodic solution and that the disease is uniformly persistent if R0>1. In the case where all coefficients are constants, for a special case, we obtain the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium, the uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium, and the permanence of the disease in terms of the basic reproduction number R0. Numerical simulations are carried out to verify the analytic result. Some sensitivity analysis of R0 is performed. Our finding shows that an increase in juvenile exposure will lead to more severe transmission. Moreover, we find that the ignorance of the seasonality may result in underestimation of the basic reproduction number R0.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shlomit Paz

Abstract One of the main impacts of climate change on health is the influence on vector-borne diseases (VBDs). During the last few years, yearly outbreaks of the West Nile virus (WNV) have occurred in many locations, providing evidence of ongoing transmission. Currently, it is the most widely distributed arbovirus in the world. Increases in ambient temperature have impacts on WNV transmission. Indeed, clear associations were found between warm conditions and WNV outbreaks in various areas. The impact of changes in rainfall patterns on the incidence of the disease is influenced by the amount of precipitation (increased rainfall, floods or droughts), depending on the local conditions and the differences in the ecology and sensitivity of the species of mosquito. Predictions indicate that for WNV, increased warming will result in latitudinal and altitudinal expansions of regions climatically suitable for transmission, particularly along the current edges of its transmission areas. Extension of the transmission season is also predicted. As models show that the current climate change trends are expected to continue, it is important to reinforce WNV control efforts and increase the resilience of population health. For a better preparedness, any assessment of future transmission of WNV should consider the impacts of the changing climate.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (07) ◽  
pp. 2050057
Author(s):  
Zhengdi Zhang ◽  
Abdelrazig K. Tarboush

In this paper, we investigate a reaction–diffusion–advection model with expanding fronts, which models the spatial transmission of West Nile virus (WNv) in a heterogeneous environment. A free boundary problem is formulated and the global existence and uniqueness of the solution is presented. In addition to a classical basic reproduction number, the spatial-temporal basic reproduction number for the model with null Dirichlet boundary condition is introduced and the risk index associated with the virus in spatial setting is defined, and their properties are discussed. Sufficient conditions for the WNv to vanish or spread are given, and the asymptotic behavior of the solution to the free boundary problem when the spreading occurs is established. Our results show that the initial number of infected populations and the expanding capability of the expanding fronts exhibit important impacts on the extinction or persistence of the virus.


RNA ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 22 (10) ◽  
pp. 1574-1591 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susann Friedrich ◽  
Tobias Schmidt ◽  
Angelika Schierhorn ◽  
Hauke Lilie ◽  
Grit Szczepankiewicz ◽  
...  

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 680-682 ◽  
Author(s):  
JASON L. RASGON ◽  
MEERA VENKATESAN ◽  
CATHERINE J. WESTBROOK ◽  
MARY CLAIRE HAUER

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