scholarly journals A Mathematical and Statistical Estimation of Potential Transmission and Severity of COVID-19: A Combined Study of Romania and Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ozair ◽  
Takasar Hussain ◽  
Mureed Hussain ◽  
Aziz Ullah Awan ◽  
Dumitru Baleanu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Estimation ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Constant Level ◽  
Drastic Condition ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Containment Measures

During the outbreak of an epidemic, it is of immense interest to monitor the effects of containment measures and forecast of outbreak including epidemic peak. To confront the epidemic, a simple SIR model is used to simulate the number of affected patients of coronavirus disease in Romania and Pakistan. The model captures the growth in case onsets, and the estimated results are almost compatible with the actual reported cases. Through the calibration of parameters, forecast for the appearance of new cases in Romania and Pakistan is reported till the end of this year by analysing the current situation. The constant level of number of patients and time to reach this level is also reported through the simulations. The drastic condition is also discussed which may occur if all the preventive restraints are removed.

scholarly journals Estimation of Transmission Potential and Severity of COVID–19 in Romania and Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ozair ◽  
Takasar Hussain ◽  
Mureed Hussain ◽  
Aziz Ullah Awan ◽  
Dumitru Baleanu
Keyword(s):  
Current Situation ◽  
Constant Level ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Drastic Condition ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Containment Measures

AbstractDuring the outbreak of an epidemic, it is of immense interest to monitor the effects of containment measures and forecast of outbreak including epidemic peak. To confront the epidemic, a simple SIR model is used to simulate the number of affected patients of Coronavirus disease in Romania and Pakistan. The model captures the growth in case onsets and the estimated results are almost compatible with the actual reported cases. Through the calibration of parameters, forecast for the appearance of new cases in Romania and Pakistan is reported till the end of this year by analysing the current situation. The constant level of number of patients and time-to-reach this level is also reported through the simulations. The drastic condition is also discussed which may occur if all the preventive restraints are removed.

scholarly journals Extension of a SIR model for modelling the propagation of Covid-19 in several countries.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Lavielle ◽  
Matthieu Faron ◽  
jeremie lefevre ◽  
Jean-David Zeitoun
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Early Evaluation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
High Level ◽  
Over Time

Background Several epidemiologic models have been published to forecast the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic yet there are still uncertainties regarding their accuracy. We report the main features of the development of a novel freely accessible model intended to urgently help researchers and decision makers to predict the evolution of the pandemic in their country. Methods and findings We built a SIR-type compartmental model with additional compartments and features. We made the hypothesis that the number of contagious individuals in the population was negligible as compared to the population size. We introduced a compartment D corresponding to the deceased patients and a compartment L representing the group of individuals who will die but who will not infect anybody (due to social or medical isolation). Our model integrated a time-dependent transmission rate, whose variations can be thought to be related to the public measures taken by each country and a cosine function to incorporate a periodic weekly component linked to the way in which numbers of cases and deaths are counted and reported, which can change from day to day. The model was able to accurately capture the different changes in the dynamics of the pandemic for nine different countries whatever the type of pandemic spread or containment measures. The model provided very accurate forecasts in the relatively short term (10 days). Conclusions In early evaluation of the performance of our model, we found a high level of accuracy between prediction and observed data, regardless of the country. The model should be used by the community to help public health decisions as we will refine it over time and further investigate its performance.

scholarly journals Impact of containment type on Covid-19 propagation in Morocco using the SIR model.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nada Lebkiri ◽  
Zakaria Abidli ◽  
Sara Jadda ◽  
Abdelrhani Mokhtari ◽  
Abdelmajid Soulaymani
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Study ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Medical Science ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Epidemiological Model ◽  
Sudden Increase ◽  
Risk Of Infection ◽  
First Case ◽  
Over Time

Objective and mehtods: Our objective is to determine the containment effect on the spread of Covid 19 in Morocco. The methodology is based on an epidemiological study whose objective is to take stock of the current situation and to estimate the future spread of Covid-19 over time in Morocco. Several conditions were considered using the SIR epidemiological model for a better reliability of the results. During the study period from the appearance of the first case until 19 June 2020, Morocco reported 9074 cases of infections, 213 deaths with a lethality of 2.35% and a mortality of 6.04 per million inhabitants. Results and Conclusion: The results of the SIR model show a sudden increase in infections. The peak would be 4.4 million inhabitants or 12% of the total population under confined conditions. Selon ces résultats,Containment is one of the most effective methods of reducing the risk of infection. Bangladesh Journal of Medical Science Vol.19(0) 2020 p. S 58-S 65

scholarly journals Validating a Phenomenological Mathematical Model for Public Health and Safety Interventions Influencing the Evolutionary Stages of Recent Outbreak for Long-Term and Short-Term Domains in Pakistan

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahsan Nawaz ◽  
Xing Su ◽  
Shahid Iqbal ◽  
Hafiz Zahoor ◽  
Ali Asad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The World ◽  
Recent Outbreak ◽  
Safety Interventions ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Right

During the outbreak of an epidemic, it becomes significantly essential to monitor the effects of containment measures and forecast the outbreak, including the epidemic peak. Many countries have either implemented strict lockdown to counter the spread of coronavirus disease or taken necessary preventive measures across the world to reduce the outbreak of this epidemic war. Several epidemic models have been presented across the world to examine the effects of public health-related strategies on mitigating the spread of current infectious disease, yet no reputable model has been presented for Pakistan as well as other South-Asian developing countries as per the authors’ knowledge. In this research, an actual coronavirus prediction in Pakistan is presented, which may guide the decision-makers as to how this pandemic has spread across the country and how it can be controlled. Furthermore, in the absence of targeted medicines, the analysis helps to develop a precise plan for the eradication of the outbreak by adopting the calculated steps at the right time. The mathematical phenomenological models have been adopted in this study to predict, project, and simulate the overall affected cases reflected due to the recent outbreak in Pakistan. These models predict the expected growth, and the estimated results are almost well matched with the real cases. Through the calibration of parameters and analyzing the current situation, forecast for the appearance of new cases in Pakistan is reported till the end of this year. The constant level of number of patients and time to reach specific levels are also reported through the simulations. The drastic conditions are also discussed which may occur if all the preventive restraints are removed. This research quantitatively describes the significant characteristics of the spread of corona cases. It acknowledges and provides an understanding of a short-term and long-term transmission of coronavirus outbreak in the country as three evolutionary phases. Therefore, this research provides a pathway to cope with the emerging threat of a severe outbreak in developing and nondeveloping countries.

Current Status on Treatments and Clinical Trials for COVID-19 (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guosheng Yin ◽  
Chenyang Zhang ◽  
Huaqing Jin
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Trials ◽  
Phase Ii ◽  
Developmental Process ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Current Status ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Fast Speed ◽  
Death Toll ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

UNSTRUCTURED With the worldwide rapidly growing number of patients infected with the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), the death toll has also been climbing up at a fast speed. There is an urgent need to search for cures for COVID-19 patients. A large number of clinical trials have been launched to test some existing or new antiviral therapeutics and vaccines. In contrast to starting from the scratch, many trials are initiated directly in phase II or III with the hope to expedite the developmental process. We summarize the information on the registered trials for the top ten COVID-19 drugs, and give an overview on the current situation and trend of treatments and clinical trials. In particular, we review those trials that have already been finished and discuss lessons that can be learned from them.

How would Widespread Community Transmission of Covid-19 in Sri Lanka look like? A Population-based Simulation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
NWANY Wijesekara ◽  
HDB Herath ◽  
KALC Kodituwakku ◽  
HMMNK Herath ◽  
BAMP Bulathsinghe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
State University ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Penn State ◽  
Community Transmission

Abstract Widespread community transmission of Covid-19 can overwhelm the capacity of health systems; Sri Lanka is no exception. We simulated the widespread community transmission of Covid-19 in Sri Lanka, using the Susceptibility, Infected and Removed (SIR) model through the Penn State University CHIME Model incorporated to ArcGIS Pro, by introducing one case of Covid-19 to the current population in each of the 26 health districts and running the model for 365 days. The simulation revealed that the number of patients requiring admissions, ICU care, and mechanical ventilation would peak at 1942, 583, and 388 per day, respectively, around 213 days from the onset. The cumulative number of cases needing admission, ICU care, and ventilation will be 245,916, 73,775, and 49,183 after 365 days. Colombo and Gampaha districts will report the highest number of daily total numbers of hospitalized cases over 1680. Health authorities can use the results of such simulations to prepare to face the worst-case scenarios of the Covid-19 outbreak to minimize morbidity and mortality. Keywords: Covid-19, Community Transmission, SIR Model, CHIME, Outbreak, Simulation, Prediction

scholarly journals Usage of clozapine and new neuroleptics

1999 ◽  
Vol 23 (12) ◽  
pp. 749-749
Author(s):  
Camilla Haw ◽  
Jean Stubbs
Keyword(s):  
Atypical Antipsychotics ◽  
Response Rate ◽  
Pharmaceutical Journal ◽  
Postal Questionnaire ◽  
First Line ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Line Treatment

Sir: Bristow (Psychiatric Bulletin, August 1999, 23, 478–480) found 9.5% of psychiatrists said their trust restricted clozapine funding. By contrast, the Maudsley National Schizophrenia Fellowship (1998) survey of health authority pharmaceutical advisors reported in the Pharmaceutical Journal found clozapine funding restricted by 45% of health authorities. We have recently carried out a postal questionnaire of members of the UK Psychiatric Pharmacists Group on the use and evaluation of atypical antipsychotics. We received 82 replies giving a response rate of 45%. Eleven per cent of pharmacists reported their trust capped the number of patients prescribed clozapine. However, there was widespread use of measures by trusts to try and limit expenditure on atypicals, restricting the prescribing of atypicals to consultants only and the use of guidelines in which atypicals are not first line treatment for schizophrenia. Only 12% of trusts, our hospital among them, used no cost-containment measures.

scholarly journals Impacts of undetected and inadequately treated hypertension on incident stroke in China

BMJ Open ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. e016581 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thang S Han ◽  
Harry Hao-Xiang Wang ◽  
Li Wei ◽  
Yuesong Pan ◽  
Ying Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Standard Method ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Uncontrolled Hypertension ◽  
Number Of Patients

ObjectivesChina carries the greatest burden of stroke given its largest volume of people with hypertension. This study assessed the impacts of suboptimal controls of hypertension on incident stroke and projected the number of patients with stroke saved after the control of blood pressure improved in population.SettingAnhui, China.ParticipantsWe examined data from the Anhui cohort of 2001–2011, consisting of 3336 participants aged ≥60 years who were randomly recruited from the urban and rural Anhui. 2852 participants had hypertensive status measured and no stroke at baseline, and were followed up until 2011 in three surveys using a standard method of interview.ResultsAt baseline, 1646 participants (57.7%) were identified to have hypertension, among whom 912 (55.4%) were previously undetected, 115 (7.0%) detected but not treated, 452 (27.5%) treated but not controlled and only 127 (7.7%) controlled. During the 10-year follow-up, 211 incident stroke cases (12.8/1000 person-years) occurred. Compared with normotensive individuals at baseline, multivariate adjusted HR for having stroke increased in those with undetected hypertension by 1.63 (95%CI 1.15 to 2.32), untreated by 2.21 (1.26–3.85) and uncontrolled hypertension by 3.34 (2.28–4.88), but did not differ from those with controlled hypertension (1.34; 0.60–2.99). Based on a two-fold increase in the detection and management of current levels of hypertension and algorithms on the current situation in China, approximately 250 000 incident stroke cases could be prevented annually.ConclusionsIn China, hypertension is frequently undetected or inadequately treated. With appropriate management of hypertension, a substantial number of people could be saved form stroke.

scholarly journals Predicting the cumulative medical load of COVID-19 outbreaks after the peak in daily fatalities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudius Gros ◽  
Roser Valenti ◽  
Lukas Schneider ◽  
Benedikt Gutsche ◽  
Dimitrije Markovic
Keyword(s):  
Sir Model ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Hospitalised Patients ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Status ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Fixed Period

The distinct ways the COVID-19 pandemics has been unfolding in different countries and regions suggest that local societal and governmental structures play an essential role both for the baseline infection rate and the short-term and long-term reaction to the outbreak. Here we investigate how societies as a whole, and governments, in particular, modulate the dynamics of a novel epidemic using a generalisation of the SIR model, the controlled SIR model. We posit that containment measures correspond to feedback between the status of the outbreak (the daily or the cumulative number of cases and fatalities) and the reproduction factor. We present the exact phase space solution of the controlled SIR model and use it to quantify containment policies for a large number of countries in terms of short- and long-term control parameters. Furthermore, we identified for numerous countries a relationship between the number of fatalities within a fixed period before and after the peak in daily fatalities. As the number of fatalities corresponds to the number of hospitalised patients, the relationship can be used to predict the cumulative medical load, once the effectiveness of outbreak suppression policies is established with sufficient certainty.

scholarly journals Forecasting Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 Epidemic in India under Various Containment Measures- A Time-Dependent State-Space SIR Approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vishal Deo ◽  
Anuradha Rajkonwar Chetiya ◽  
Barnali Deka ◽  
Gurprit Grover
Keyword(s):  
State Space ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
Total Incidence ◽  
Comparison Results ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Impact

Objectives Our primary objective is to predict the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemic in India while adjusting for the effects of various progressively implemented containment measures. Apart from forecasting the major turning points and parameters associated with the epidemic, we intend to provide an epidemiological assessment of the impact of these containment measures in India. Methods We propose a method based on time-series SIR model to estimate time-dependent modifiers for transmission rate of the infection. These modifiers are used in state-space SIR model to estimate reproduction number R0, expected total incidence, and to forecast the daily prevalence till the end of the epidemic. We consider four different scenarios, two based on current developments and two based on hypothetical situations for the purpose of comparison. Results Assuming gradual relaxation in lockdown post 17 May 2020, we expect the prevalence of infecteds to cross 9 million, with at least 1 million severe cases, around the end of October 2020. For the same case, estimates of R0 for the phases no-intervention, partial-lockdown and lockdown are 4.46 (7.1), 1.47 (2.33), and 0.817 (1.29) respectively, assuming 14-day (24-day) infectious period. Conclusions Estimated modifiers give consistent estimates of unadjusted R0 across different scenarios, demonstrating precision. Results corroborate the effectiveness of lockdown measures in substantially reducing R0. Also, predictions are highly sensitive towards estimate of infectious period.

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