scholarly journals Project Portfolio Resource Risk Assessment considering Project Interdependency by the Fuzzy Bayesian Network

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Libiao Bai ◽  
Kaimin Zhang ◽  
Huijing Shi ◽  
Min An ◽  
Xiao Han
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Resource Sharing ◽  
Resource Constraints ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Project Portfolio ◽  
Strategic Decisions

Resource risk caused by specific resource sharing or competition among projects due to resource constraints is a major issue in project portfolio management, which challenges the application of risk analysis methods effectively. This paper presents a methodology by using a fuzzy Bayesian network to assess the project portfolio resource risk, determine critical resource risk factors, and propose risk-reduction strategies. In this method, the project portfolio resource risk factors are first identified by taking project interdependency into consideration, and then the Bayesian network model is developed to analyze the risk level of the identified risk factors in which expert judgments and fuzzy set theory are integrated to determine the probabilities of all risk factors to deal with incomplete risk data and information. To reduce the subjectivity of expert judgments, the expert weights are determined by combining experts’ background and reliability degree of expert judgments. A numerical analysis is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed methodology. The results show that project portfolio resource risks can be analyzed effectively and efficiently. Furthermore, “poor communication and cooperation among projects,” “capital difficulty,” and “lack of sharing technology among projects” are considered the leading factors of the project portfolio resource risk. Risk-reduction strategic decisions based on the results of risk assessment can be made, which provide project managers with a useful method or tool to manage project risks.

scholarly journals MEVA - a new method of occupational health and safety risk assessment

2019 ◽  
Vol 290 ◽  
pp. 12008
Author(s):  
Doru-Costin Darabont ◽  
Eduard Smîdu ◽  
Alina Trifu ◽  
Vicențiu Ciocîrlea ◽  
Iulian Ivan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Occupational Health ◽  
Deductive Reasoning ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Occupational Health And Safety ◽  
New Method ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Safety Risk

The paper describes a new method of occupational health and safety risk assessment. This method, called MEVA, unlike the old ones, focuses more on reduce or eliminate subjective issues in determining the probability of manifestation of risk factors and is based on a deductive reasoning, with the help of which is studied the chain between two or more events. The novelty of the method consists in combining risk assessment techniques with evaluation of compliance with legal and other requirements, aiming to provide a more objective results of the risk assessment. In the MEVA method, the risk matrix is defined by 5 classes of severity and 5 probability classes, resulting in 5 levels of risk. After quantifying the risk factors, prevention measures are proposed for all the identified risk factors and each partial risk level is recalculated as a result of the proposed measures. The five levels of risk were grouped into three categories: acceptable, tolerable and unacceptable. The MEVA method is a simple method and it can be used for assessing various workplaces, with different characteristics of complexity, activity domain or occupational health and safety recordings.

scholarly journals A Dynamic Risk Assessment Method for Deep-Buried Tunnels Based on a Bayesian Network

Geofluids ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Wang ◽  
Jie Su ◽  
Sulei Zhang ◽  
Siyao Guo ◽  
Peng Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Risk Rating ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment

In view of the shortcomings in the risk assessment of deep-buried tunnels, a dynamic risk assessment method based on a Bayesian network is proposed. According to case statistics, a total of 12 specific risk rating factors are obtained and divided into three types: objective factors, subjective factors, and monitoring factors. The grading criteria of the risk rating factors are determined, and a dynamic risk rating system is established. A Bayesian network based on this system is constructed by expert knowledge and historical data. The nodes in the Bayesian network are in one-to-one correspondence with the three types of influencing factors, and the probability distribution is determined. Posterior probabilistic and sensitivity analyses are carried out, and the results show that the main influencing factors obtained by the two methods are basically the same. The constructed dynamic risk assessment model is most affected by the objective factor rating and monitoring factor rating, followed by the subjective factor rating. The dynamic risk rating is mainly affected by the surrounding rock level among the objective factors, construction management among the subjective factors, and arch crown convergence and side wall displacement among the monitoring factors. The dynamic risk assessment method based on the Bayesian network is applied to the No. 3 inclined shaft of the Humaling tunnel. According to the adjustment of the monitoring data and geological conditions, the dynamic risk rating probability of level I greatly decreased from 81.7% to 33.8%, the probability of level II significantly increased from 12.3% to 34.0%, and the probability of level III increased from 5.95% to 32.2%, which indicates that the risk level has risen sharply. The results show that this method can effectively predict the risk level during tunnel construction.

scholarly journals A Bayesian network model for personalised COVID19 risk assessment and contact tracing

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Norman E Fenton ◽  
Scott McLachlan ◽  
Peter Lucas ◽  
Kudakwashe Dube ◽  
Graham A Hitman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Personal Information ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Smartphone App ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
The Uk

AbstractConcerns about the practicality and effectiveness of using Contact Tracing Apps (CTA) to reduce the spread of COVID19 have been well documented and, in the UK, led to the abandonment of the NHS CTA shortly after its release in May 2020. We present a causal probabilistic model (a Bayesian network) that provides the basis for a practical CTA solution that addresses some of the concerns and which has the advantage of minimal infringement of privacy. Users of the model can provide as much or little personal information as they wish about relevant risk factors, symptoms, and recent social interactions. The model then provides them feedback about the likelihood of the presence of asymptotic, mild or severe COVID19 (past, present and projected). When the model is embedded in a smartphone app, it can be used to detect new outbreaks in a monitored population and identify outbreak locations as early as possible. For this purpose, the only data needed to be centrally collected is the probability the user has COVID19 and the GPS location.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF COVID 19 PANDEMIC ON PROJECT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT-A CASE STUDY ON CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY IN SOUTHERN INDIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 168-178
Author(s):  
Ajay Krishnan ◽  
Ajithkumar S ◽  
Manishankar G ◽  
Upendra K ◽  
Kabilan A ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Project Portfolio ◽  
Project Portfolio Management ◽  
Management Tools ◽  
Real Estate Sector ◽  
The Impact

In India, Project Portfolio Management (PPM) is in practice as a tool for prioritizing and managing real estate projects in construction organizations. But due to insufficient funding, improper judgment of experts during the crisis situation, the selection of optimal project portfolio prototype can be viewed as a risk based decision making process involving various risk factors. The objective of this study is to analyze the importance of project portfolio management and the risks associated with it in the construction industry taking into account the impact of novel corona virus COVID 19. This research identifies the adoption of more consistent project governance, risk management techniques and way more careful project portfolio management as the core area of study. A conceptual framework for Project Portfolio Management is also designed after analyzing various parameters of Project Portfolio Management of construction industry with the help of Bayesian framework. The key motive for undertaking this part of examination on real estate sector of Indian construction industry in southern part of India to reduce the impacts and increase the return on investment from the projects by mitigating the effect of risk factors associated in the projects.  Project Portfolio Management tools and techniques are very useful for managing multiple construction projects.

scholarly journals Study on risk assessment of expressway nighttime maintenance construction: A Dynamic Bayesian Network model

2021 ◽  
Vol 257 ◽  
pp. 02047
Author(s):  
Zhen Tian ◽  
Jinhua Fan ◽  
Qianqian Chen ◽  
Huaichen Hu ◽  
Yanyang Shen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Network ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Bayesian Network Model ◽  
Change Curve ◽  
Or Gate

There are many risk factors and large uncertainties in expressway nighttime maintenance construction(ENMC), and the state of risk factors will change dynamically with time. In this study, a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model was proposed to investigate the dynamic characteristics of the time-varying probability of traffic accidents during expressway maintenance at night. Combined with Leaky Noisy-or gate extended model, the calculation method of conditional probability is determined . By setting evidences for DBN reasoning, the time series change curve of the probability of traffic accidents and other risk factors are obtained. The results show that DBN can be applied to risk assessment of ENMC.

scholarly journals ERGONOMIC RISK ASSESSMENT ON SELECTED HOT-WORK WORKERS AT COMPANY XXX

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (Special1) ◽  
pp. 176-185
Author(s):  
Sivabalan Sanmugum ◽  
Karmegam Karuppiah ◽  
Sivasankar
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Entire Body ◽  
Very High ◽  
Ergonomic Risk Assessment ◽  
Ergonomic Risk

Company XXX is a factory that involving manufacturing of offshore containers in where the hot works are one of the crucial activities in fabrication and structuring the framework of the containers. This study had been conducted at hot work section to conduct initial and advanced ergonomic risk assessment to identify ergonomic risk factors involved among hot-work workers which cause the significant number of reports on ergonomic related health issues at hot works area from the year 2011 to year 2017. The initial and advanced ergonomic risk assessment had been conducted based on DOSH latest release of guideline on ergonomic risk assessment 2017 and all findings had been tabulated and analysed. Based on the intial ergonomic assessment, total score achived is 17.7 with main risk factors identified through the hot work acticties are including awkward postures, repetitive motions, static and sustained work postures, vibration, insufficient ventilation, exposure of noise and working in extreme temperature. Based on Advanced ERA conducted on selected 3 workers, the study shows Muscle Fatigue Assessment (MFA) with average score for risk level shown ‘High’ and ‘Very High’ categories, Rapid Entire Body Assessment (REBA) with average total score more than 10 which categorized as ‘High Risk’ and Quick Exposure Check (QEC) which shown the workers have very high risk for back and shoulder or arm parts with score level are between 29 to 40 for back static and  41 to 56 for shoulder and arm parts. Based on results of the assessment, company XXX recommended had been to conduct further investigation for improvements to determine effective control measure for the work process in order to reduce that risk level towards the hot work workers.

scholarly journals Assessing Access Control Risk for mHealth: A Delphi Study to Categorize Security of Health Data and Provide Risk Assessment for Mobile Apps

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Pedro Moura ◽  
Paulo Fazendeiro ◽  
Pedro R. M. Inácio ◽  
Pedro Vieira-Marques ◽  
Ana Ferreira
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Access Control ◽  
Delphi Study ◽  
Mobile Apps ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Health Data ◽  
Security And Privacy ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Healthcare Data

Background. Smartphones can tackle healthcare stakeholders’ diverse needs. Nonetheless, the risk of data disclosure/breach can be higher when using such devices, due to the lack of adequate security and the fact that a medical record has a significant higher financial value when compared with other records. Means to assess those risks are required for every mHealth application interaction, dependent and independent of its goals/content. Objective. To present a risk assessment feature integration into the SoTRAACE (Socio-Technical Risk-Adaptable Access Control) model, as well as the operationalization of the related mobile health decision policies. Methods. Since there is still a lack of a definition for health data security categorization, a Delphi study with security experts was performed for this purpose, to reflect the knowledge of security experts and to be closer to real-life situations and their associated risks. Results. The Delphi study allowed a consensus to be reached on eleven risk factors of information security related to mobile applications that can easily be adapted into the described SoTRAACE prototype. Within those risk factors, the most significant five, as assessed by the experts, and in descending order of risk level, are as follows: (1) security in the communication (e.g., used security protocols), (2) behavioural differences (e.g., different or outlier patterns of behaviour detected for a user), (3) type of wireless connection and respective encryption, (4) resource sensitivity, and (5) device threat level (e.g., known vulnerabilities associated to a device or its operating system). Conclusions. Building adaptable, risk-aware resilient access control models into the most generalized technology used nowadays (e.g., smartphones) is crucial to fulfil both the goals of users as well as security and privacy requirements for healthcare data.

Evaluating Violence Risk in Children and Adolescents

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randy Borum
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Children And Adolescents ◽  
Health Professionals ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Developmental Context ◽  
Emergency Workers ◽  
Behavioral Emergencies

Emergency workers and behavioral health professionals who work in crisis or emergency settings should understand the fundamentals of assessing and managing violence risk in children and adolescents, but violence potential must be considered in its developmental context. This chapter presents an approach for assessing violence risk among youth in the context of behavioral emergencies. It begins with a brief discussion of the developmental context for risk assessment and how to think about violent outcomes among children and adolescents. Then, it covers the information an evaluator would need to collect, how to collect it, and how to reach a sound decision about a youth’s risk level. It encourages evaluators in emergency or crisis settings to rely on evidence-based risk factors, while also applying individualized formulations to give texture to the assessments and to the subsequent forecasts about the nature and degree of risk for violence.

scholarly journals Investment Risk Assessment of Dispersed Wind Power in Low Wind Speed Area Using a Hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Lingyun Liu ◽  
Jianli Zhou ◽  
Haoxin Dong ◽  
Yao Tao ◽  
Yunna Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Low Wind Speed ◽  
Fuzzy Linguistic

Reducing the phenomenon of wind curtailment is essential to improve the level of wind power consumption. Wind power development in China has shifted to southeast region and dispersed wind power has developed rapidly and gradually become the new main force. However, various obstacles limit the smooth progress of dispersed wind power in low wind speed area. An important point is the absence of targeted risk analysis and evaluation methods. Therefore, the principal contribution of this paper is to find out the critical risk factors of such projects and propose the risk assessment model. First, 18 critical risk factors are identified using the constructed five-dimensional risk analysis model. Second, the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set with credibility is utilized to collect evaluation information on one hand and to improve the multicriteria decision-making methods involved on the other hand. Third, the risk evaluation and ranking for 10 provinces that mainly develop dispersed wind power is carried out. The evaluation results indicate that the risk level of dispersed wind power projects is “Relatively Low” in most study provinces and the risk levels of Guangdong and Fujian are higher. It is worth noting that the consistency between the evaluation results and the distribution of wind resources can be used to guide the formulation of stimulus policies. Besides, the ranking results show some preference for investment choice. Finally, dual sensitivity analysis tests the stability of the model and shows the ranking results under different decision preferences. Scenario analysis gives the possible risk scenarios and evaluation results in the future. This study can provide insightful inspiration to wind power investors, risk management practitioners, and policymakers.

Metro Construction Safety Risk Assessment of Xi'an Based on CIM Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 638-640 ◽  
pp. 804-808
Author(s):  
Bi Xue Zhang ◽  
Feng Hai Ma
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fuzzy Ahp ◽  
Construction Safety ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Geological Characteristics ◽  
Subway Construction

According to the geological characteristics of Xi'an, analyze the accidents may occur in metro construction. A metro construction safety risk assessment system should be built on the basis of the cause of the accident. Combined with the data of survey and design of Xi'an No.4 subway construction, using the fuzzy AHP to reach the parameters of risk assessment and build a CIM model. CIM model is applied to the risk assessment of Xi'an No.4 subway construction. The total metro construction safety risk can be gained through analyzing. In addition, risk events that may occur based on specific risk factors to determine the risk level. Lastly, control measures are put forward.

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