scholarly journals Forecasting Confirmed Cases, Deaths, and Recoveries from COVID-19 in China during the Early Stage

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Lianyi Liu ◽  
Yan Chen ◽  
Lifeng Wu
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Basis ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
And Control

To provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of COVID-19 in China, confirmed cases, deaths, and recoveries from COVID-19 in China were predicted using a fractional grey model. The results indicated that the grey model has high forecasting accuracy in the prediction of disease spread.

scholarly journals CSC Expert Consensus on Principles of Clinical Management of Patients With Severe Emergent Cardiovascular Diseases During the COVID-19 Epidemic

Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 141 (20) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaling Han ◽  
Hesong Zeng ◽  
Hong Jiang ◽  
Yuejin Yang ◽  
Zuyi Yuan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Interventional Procedures ◽  
Consensus Statement ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Chinese Society ◽  
Local Health ◽  
Therapeutic Approaches ◽  
Control Department ◽  
And Control ◽  
Self Protection

In response to the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, the Chinese Society of Cardiology (CSC) issued this consensus statement after consulting with 125 medical experts in the fields of cardiovascular disease and infectious disease. The over-arching principles laid out here are the following: 1) Consider the prevention and control of COVID-19 transmission as the highest priority, including self-protection of medical staff; 2) Patient risk assessment of both infection and cardiovascular issues. Where appropriate, preferential use of conservative medical therapeutic approaches to minimize disease spread; 3) At all times, medical practices and interventional procedures should be conducted in accordance with the directives of the infection control department of local hospitals and local health commissions.

scholarly journals Bifurcation Analysis of an SIR Epidemic Model with the Contact Transmission Function

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Guihua Li ◽  
Gaofeng Li
Keyword(s):  
Theoretical Basis ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Transmission Function ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Sir Epidemic Model ◽  
Sir Epidemic ◽  
Contact Transmission ◽  
Disease Spreading ◽  
Intervention Policy ◽  
And Control

We consider an SIR endemic model in which the contact transmission function is related to the number of infected population. By theoretical analysis, it is shown that the model exhibits the bistability and undergoes saddle-node bifurcation, the Hopf bifurcation, and the Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation. Furthermore, we find that the threshold value of disease spreading will be increased, when the half-saturation coefficient is more than zero, which means that it is an effective intervention policy adopted for disease spreading. However, when the endemic equilibria exist, we find that the disease can be controlled as long as we let the initial values lie in the certain range by intervention policy. This will provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of disease.

scholarly journals The effect of control measures on COVID-19 transmission in Italy: Comparison with Guangdong province in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pei-Yu Liu ◽  
Sha He ◽  
Li-Bin Rong ◽  
San-Yi Tang
Keyword(s):  
Media Coverage ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Guangdong Province ◽  
Individual Behavior ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
And Control ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background COVID-19 has spread all around the world. Italy is one of the worst affected countries in Europe. Although there is a trend of relief, the epidemic situation hasn’t stabilized yet. This study aims to investigate the dynamics of the disease spread in Italy and provide some suggestions on containing the epidemic. Methods We compared Italy’s status at the outbreak stage and control measures with Guangdong Province in China by data observation and analysis. A modified autonomous SEIR model was used to study the COVID-19 epidemic and transmission potential during the early stage of the outbreak in Italy. We also utilized a time-dependent dynamic model to study the future disease dynamics in Italy. The impact of various non-pharmaceutical control measures on epidemic was investigated through uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. Results The comparison of specific measures implemented in the two places and the time when the measures were initiated shows that the initial prevention and control actions in Italy were not sufficiently timely and effective. We estimated parameter values based on available cumulative data and calculated the basic reproduction number to be 4.32 before the national lockdown in Italy. Based on the estimated parameter values, we performed numerical simulations to predict the epidemic trend and evaluate the impact of contact limitation, detection and diagnosis, and individual behavior change due to media coverage on the epidemic. Conclusions Italy was in a severe epidemic status and the control measures were not sufficiently timely and effective in the beginning. Non-pharmaceutical interventions, including contact restrictions and improvement of case recognition, play an important role in containing the COVID-19 epidemic. The effect of individual behavior changes due to media update of the outbreak cannot be ignored. For policy-makers, early and strict blockade measures, fast detection and improving media publicity are key to containing the epidemic.

scholarly journals The spatial transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in China under the prevention and control measures at the early outbreak

2021 ◽  
Vol 79 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianli Liu ◽  
Yuan Zhou ◽  
Chuanyu Ye ◽  
Guangming Zhang ◽  
Feng Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Chinese Mainland ◽  
Hubei Province ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Provincial Level ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

Abstract Background Since severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was firstly reported in Wuhan City, China in December 2019, Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) that is caused by SARS-CoV-2 is predominantly spread from person-to-person on worldwide scales. Now, COVID-19 is a non-traditional and major public health issue the world is facing, and the outbreak is a global pandemic. The strict prevention and control measures have mitigated the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and shown positive changes with important progress in China. But prevention and control tasks remain arduous for the world. The objective of this study is to discuss the difference of spatial transmission characteristics of COVID-19 in China at the early outbreak stage with resolute efforts. Simultaneously, the COVID-19 trend of China at the early time was described from the statistical perspective using a mathematical model to evaluate the effectiveness of the prevention and control measures. Methods In this study, the accumulated number of confirmed cases publicly reported by the National Health Committee of the People’s Republic of China (CNHC) from January 20 to February 11, 2020, were grouped into three partly overlapping regions: Chinese mainland including Hubei province, Hubei province alone, and the other 30 provincial-level regions on Chinese mainland excluding Hubei province, respectively. A generalized-growth model (GGM) was used to estimate the basic reproduction number to evaluate the transmissibility in different spatial locations. The prevention and control of COVID-19 in the early stage were analyzed based on the number of new cases of confirmed infections daily reported. Results Results indicated that the accumulated number of confirmed cases reported from January 20 to February 11, 2020, is well described by the GGM model with a larger correlation coefficient than 0.99. When the accumulated number of confirmed cases is well fitted by an exponential function, the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 of the 31 provincial-level regions on the Chinese mainland, Hubei province, and the other 30 provincial-level regions on the Chinese mainland excluding Hubei province, is 2.68, 6.46 and 2.18, respectively. The consecutive decline of the new confirmed cases indicated that the prevention and control measures taken by the Chinese government have contained the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in a short period. Conclusions The estimated basic reproduction number thorough GGM model can reflect the spatial difference of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China at the early stage. The strict prevention and control measures of SARS-CoV-2 taken at the early outbreak can effectively reduce the new confirmed cases outside Hubei and have mitigated the spread and yielded positive results since February 2, 2020. The research results indicated that the outbreak of COVID-19 in China was sustaining localized at the early outbreak stage and has been gradually curbed by China’s resolute efforts.

scholarly journals The effect of control measures on COVID-19 transmission in Italy: Comparison with Guangdong province in China

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pei-Yu Liu ◽  
Sha He ◽  
Li-Bin Rong ◽  
San-Yi Tang
Keyword(s):  
Media Coverage ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Guangdong Province ◽  
Individual Behavior ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
And Control ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: COVID-19 has spread all around the world. Italy is one of the worst affected countries in Europe. Although there is a trend of relief, the epidemic situation hasn’t stabilized yet. This study aims to investigate the dynamics of the disease spread in Italy and provide some suggestions on containing the epidemic. Methods: We compared Italy’s status at the outbreak stage and control measures with Guangdong Province in China by data observation and analysis. A modified autonomous SEIR model was used to study the COVID-19 epidemic and transmission potential during the early stage of the outbreak in Italy. We also utilized a time-dependent dynamic model to study the future disease dynamics in Italy. The impact of various non-pharmaceutical control measures on epidemic was investigated through uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. Results: The comparison of specific measures implemented in the two places and the time when the measures were initiated shows that the initial prevention and control actions in Italy were not sufficiently timely and effective. We estimated parameter values based on available cumulative data and calculated the basic reproduction number to be 4.32 before the national lockdown in Italy. Based on the estimated parameter values, we performed numerical simulations to predict the epidemic trend and evaluate the impact of contact limitation, detection and diagnosis, and individual behavior change due to media coverage on the epidemic. Conclusions: Italy was in a severe epidemic status and the control measures were not sufficiently timely and effective in the beginning. Non-pharmaceutical interventions, including contact restrictions and improvement of case recognition, play an important role in containing the COVID-19 epidemic. The effect of individual behavior changes due to media update of the outbreak cannot be ignored. For policy-makers, early and strict blockade measures, fast detection and improving media publicity are key to containing the epidemic.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Crisis in Jordan: Response, Scenarios, Strategies, and Recommendations

10.2196/19332 ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. e19332 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raeda Alqutob ◽  
Mohannad Al Nsour ◽  
Mohammed Rasoul Tarawneh ◽  
Musa Ajlouni ◽  
Yousef Khader ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health System ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Civil Society Organizations ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
Health Staff ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

As of April 12, 2020, a total of 389 cases of coronavirus disease were confirmed in Jordan. To control this imminent threat, Jordan has enforced public health infection prevention and control measures, called for social distancing, seized all forms of inbound and outbound movement and international travel, and enacted the Defence Law that transferred the authority to the Minister of Defence to work and formulate orders according to the situation. In an effort to support the government in anticipating the requirements of the health system in the upcoming period, an in-depth reflection and examination of different scenarios of the disease spread were developed. This viewpoint suggests different strategies and measures for case detection and contact tracing, clinical management of cases, public health system functioning, and civil society organizations’ contribution. It is necessary to accelerate containment of the disease to protect the economy and to maintain the continuity of some activities to mitigate the subsequent social, economic, and financial impacts. This requires finding a coping mechanism for a period that may be prolonged until laboratories develop a vaccine. Specifically, it is strongly recommended to promote community health awareness toward public health prevention and control measures, increase the efficiency and comprehensiveness of the epidemiological investigation and active and passive surveillance, and employ technology and digital health solutions to track cases and contacts. It is also recommended to increase and expand resources of intensive care units including respirators, increase the capacity and the number of trained health staff in the area of public health and epidemiology, ensure continued provision of essential public health programs, and mobilize the resources of nongovernmental sectors and donors to provide services for refugees and vulnerable populations.

Monitoring of Campylobacter jejuni Contamination in Different Links of Broiler Production Chain in Qingdao

2015 ◽  
Vol 713-715 ◽  
pp. 548-551
Author(s):  
Hai Hua Zhai ◽  
Wei Shan Chang ◽  
Jun Wei Wang ◽  
Juan Wang
Keyword(s):  
Campylobacter Jejuni ◽  
Theoretical Basis ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Scientific Management ◽  
Production Chain ◽  
Microbial Monitoring ◽  
Animal Diseases ◽  
Broiler Production ◽  
Genotyping Method ◽  
And Control

Microbial monitoring of broiler production can provide an important theoretical basis for the prevention and control of animal diseases and reduce the pollution of the environment. In order to investigate the contamination and spread of Campylobacter jejuni in broiler production chain, we collected samples from the broiler farms, slaughterhouse and market of a big production chain in Qingdao, isolated and identified of Campylobacter jejuni. Then we used genotyping method to subtype the isolates. The result showed that C.jejuni were widespread in broiler pruduction chain, and the strains can spread during the production chain, so strengthen the scientific management of the production chain must be implemented. Control in the feeding, processing and preparation before eating of chicken are the important measures in reducing the Campylobacter jejuni infections caused by chicken.

scholarly journals Eurosurveillance comes of age and moves to ECDC

2007 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-2 ◽  
Author(s):  
H Therre ◽  
J C Desenclos ◽  
E Hoile ◽  
N Gill ◽  
J B Brunet
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Surveillance ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Large Network ◽  
Public Health Community ◽  
Infectious Disease Surveillance ◽  
Health Community ◽  
And Control

Eurosurveillance was created in 1995 to support exchange and dissemination of authoritative scientific information within the part of public health community involved in the field of infectious disease surveillance and control, at a time when European surveillance networks were at an early stage of growth. Now part of a large network, the publication is entering a new stage: the editorial function will now be hosted at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) in Stockholm. This will strengthen the platform for the next stage in Eurosurveillance’s development as the major home of peer-reviewed European information on infectious disease surveillance and control.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Crisis in Jordan: Response, Scenarios, Strategies, and Recommendations (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raeda Alqutob ◽  
Mohannad Al Nsour ◽  
Mohammed Rasoul Tarawneh ◽  
Musa Ajlouni ◽  
Yousef Khader ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health System ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Civil Society Organizations ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
Health Staff ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

UNSTRUCTURED As of April 12, 2020, a total of 389 cases of coronavirus disease were confirmed in Jordan. To control this imminent threat, Jordan has enforced public health infection prevention and control measures, called for social distancing, seized all forms of inbound and outbound movement and international travel, and enacted the Defence Law that transferred the authority to the Minister of Defence to work and formulate orders according to the situation. In an effort to support the government in anticipating the requirements of the health system in the upcoming period, an in-depth reflection and examination of different scenarios of the disease spread were developed. This viewpoint suggests different strategies and measures for case detection and contact tracing, clinical management of cases, public health system functioning, and civil society organizations’ contribution. It is necessary to accelerate containment of the disease to protect the economy and to maintain the continuity of some activities to mitigate the subsequent social, economic, and financial impacts. This requires finding a coping mechanism for a period that may be prolonged until laboratories develop a vaccine. Specifically, it is strongly recommended to promote community health awareness toward public health prevention and control measures, increase the efficiency and comprehensiveness of the epidemiological investigation and active and passive surveillance, and employ technology and digital health solutions to track cases and contacts. It is also recommended to increase and expand resources of intensive care units including respirators, increase the capacity and the number of trained health staff in the area of public health and epidemiology, ensure continued provision of essential public health programs, and mobilize the resources of nongovernmental sectors and donors to provide services for refugees and vulnerable populations.

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