scholarly journals Coverage of China New Generation Weather Radar Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chao Min ◽  
Sheng Chen ◽  
Jonathan J. Gourley ◽  
Haonan Chen ◽  
Asi Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Weather Radar ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Western China ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
China Meteorological Administration ◽  
New Generation

The China Meteorological Administration has deployed the China New Generation Weather Radar (CINRAD) network for severe weather detection and to improve initial conditions for numerical weather prediction models. The CINRAD network consists of 217 radars comprising 123 S-band and 94 C-band radars over mainland China. In this paper, a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) and beam propagation simulations are used to compute radar beam blockage and evaluate the effective radar coverage over China. Results show that the radar coverage at a height of 1 km above ground level (AGL) is restricted in complex terrain regions. The effective coverage maps at heights of 2 km and 3 km AGL indicate that the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and North China Plain have more overlapping radar coverage than other regions in China. Over eastern China, almost all areas can be sampled by more than 2 radars within 5 km above mean sea level (MSL), but the radars operating in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau still suffer from serious beam blockage caused by intervening terrain. Overall, the radars installed in western China suffer from much more severe beam blockage than those deployed in eastern China. Maps generated in this study will inform users of the CINRAD data of their limitations for use in precipitation estimation, as inputs to other weather and hydrological models, and for satellite validation studies.

scholarly journals Processing of 3D Weather Radar Data with Application for Assimilation in the NWP Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 31-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarzyna Ośródka ◽  
Jan Szturc ◽  
Bogumił Jakubiak ◽  
Anna Jurczyk
Keyword(s):  
Quality Control ◽  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Weather Radar ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Field Pattern ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Radar Data Assimilation

Abstract The paper is focused on the processing of 3D weather radar data to minimize the impact of a number of errors from different sources, both meteorological and non-meteorological. The data is also quantitatively characterized in terms of its quality. A set of dedicated algorithms based on analysis of the reflectivity field pattern is described. All the developed algorithms were tested on data from the Polish radar network POLRAD. Quality control plays a key role in avoiding the introduction of incorrect information into applications using radar data. One of the quality control methods is radar data assimilation in numerical weather prediction models to estimate initial conditions of the atmosphere. The study shows an experiment with quality controlled radar data assimilation in the COAMPS model using the ensemble Kalman filter technique. The analysis proved the potential of radar data for such applications; however, further investigations will be indispensable.

scholarly journals Model error in weather forecasting

2001 ◽  
Vol 8 (6) ◽  
pp. 357-371 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Orrell ◽  
L. Smith ◽  
J. Barkmeijer ◽  
T. N. Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Model Error ◽  
Local Model ◽  
State Dependent ◽  
Rapid Divergence ◽  
Dependent Model

Abstract. Operational forecasting is hampered both by the rapid divergence of nearby initial conditions and by error in the underlying model. Interest in chaos has fuelled much work on the first of these two issues; this paper focuses on the second. A new approach to quantifying state-dependent model error, the local model drift, is derived and deployed both in examples and in operational numerical weather prediction models. A simple law is derived to relate model error to likely shadowing performance (how long the model can stay close to the observations). Imperfect model experiments are used to contrast the performance of truncated models relative to a high resolution run, and the operational model relative to the analysis. In both cases the component of forecast error due to state-dependent model error tends to grow as the square-root of forecast time, and provides a major source of error out to three days. These initial results suggest that model error plays a major role and calls for further research in quantifying both the local model drift and expected shadowing times.

scholarly journals Development of a hybrid variational-ensemble data assimilation technique for observed lightning tested in a mesoscale model

2014 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 1027-1041 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Apodaca ◽  
M. Zupanski ◽  
M. DeMaria ◽  
J. A. Knaff ◽  
L. D. Grasso
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
New Information ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Lightning measurements from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that will be aboard the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite – R Series will bring new information that can have the potential for improving the initialization of numerical weather prediction models by assisting in the detection of clouds and convection through data assimilation. In this study we focus on investigating the utility of lightning observations in mesoscale and regional applications suitable for current operational environments, in which convection cannot be explicitly resolved. Therefore, we examine the impact of lightning observations on storm environment. Preliminary steps in developing a lightning data assimilation capability suitable for mesoscale modeling are presented in this paper. World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) data was utilized as a proxy for GLM measurements and was assimilated with the Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter, interfaced with the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model core of the Weather Research and Forecasting system (WRF-NMM). In order to test this methodology, regional data assimilation experiments were conducted. Results indicate that lightning data assimilation had a positive impact on the following: information content, influencing several dynamical variables in the model (e.g., moisture, temperature, and winds), and improving initial conditions during several data assimilation cycles. However, the 6 h forecast after the assimilation did not show a clear improvement in terms of root mean square (RMS) errors.

scholarly journals A Similarity-Based Implementation of the Schaake Shuffle

2016 ◽  
Vol 144 (5) ◽  
pp. 1909-1921 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Schefzik
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Similarity Criterion ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Prediction Horizon ◽  
Prediction Systems ◽  
Specific Implementation

Contemporary weather forecasts are typically based on ensemble prediction systems, which consist of multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models that vary with respect to the initial conditions and/or the parameterization of the atmosphere. Ensemble forecasts are frequently biased and show dispersion errors and thus need to be statistically postprocessed. However, current postprocessing approaches are often univariate and apply to a single weather quantity at a single location and for a single prediction horizon only, thereby failing to account for potentially crucial dependence structures. Nonparametric multivariate postprocessing methods based on empirical copulas, such as ensemble copula coupling or the Schaake shuffle, can address this shortcoming. A specific implementation of the Schaake shuffle, called the SimSchaake approach, is introduced. The SimSchaake method aggregates univariately postprocessed ensemble forecasts using dependence patterns from past observations. Specifically, the observations are taken from historical dates at which the ensemble forecasts resembled the current ensemble prediction with respect to a specific similarity criterion. The SimSchaake ensemble outperforms all reference ensembles in an application to ensemble forecasts for 2-m temperature from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

scholarly journals Patterns and trends of high-impact weather in China during 1959–2014

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 855-869 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Shi ◽  
Kangmin Wen ◽  
Linli Cui
Keyword(s):  
Southern China ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
High Impact ◽  
Northeastern China ◽  
Central China ◽  
Western China ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
High Impact Weather

Abstract. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the frequencies of four types of high-impact weather (HIW), i.e. snowfall, thunderstorms, fog and hailstorms, were analysed in China during 1959–2014. Results indicate a significant decrease in the number of snowfall days, thunderstorm days and thunderstorm spells in all six regions of China, with regional decreasing rates of 0.1–3.4 days, 1.6–5.1 days and 0.23–0.77 times per decade respectively. The number of foggy days, hailstorm days and snowfall spells decreased at rates of 0.2–1.8 days, 0.1–0.7 days and 0.14–0.44 times per decade respectively in almost all regions and fog and hailstorm spells decreased at rates of 0.06–0.17 and 0.001–0.043 times per decade respectively in most regions of China. Spatially, there was more snowfall in northeastern China and western China, and more thunderstorms in southern China and southwestern China. The number of fog events was larger in some high mountain stations, eastern China and central China. Hailstorms were concentrated on Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Over the past 56 years, snowfall days, thunderstorm days and thunderstorm spells decreased in most parts of China, and hailstorm days decreased in northeastern China, most parts of northern China and Tibet, southern Qinghai and western Sichuan. The spatial trends of foggy days, foggy spells, snowfall spells and hailstorm spells were not significant in most parts of China. With global warming, some types of HIW are likely to increase in their intensities, so more mitigation and adaptation strategies are still essential for local government and the public in China.

scholarly journals Hybrid variational-ensemble assimilation of lightning observations in a mesoscale model

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 917-952
Author(s):  
K. Apodaca ◽  
M. Zupanski ◽  
M. DeMaria ◽  
J. A. Knaff ◽  
L. D. Grasso
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
New Information ◽  
Forecasting System ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Lightning measurements from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that will be aboard the Goestationary Operational Environmental Satellite – R Series will bring new information that can have the potential for improving the initialization of numerical weather prediction models by assisting in the detection of clouds and convection through data assimilation. In this study we focus on investigating the utility of lightning observations in mesoscale and regional applications suitable for current operational environments, in which convection cannot be explicitly resolved. Therefore, we examine the impact of lightning observations on storm environment. Preliminary steps in developing a lightning data assimilation capability suitable for mesoscale modeling are presented in this paper. World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) data was utilized as a proxy for GLM measurements and was assimilated with the Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter, interfaced with the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model core of the Weather Research and Forecasting system (WRF-NMM). In order to test this methodology, regional data assimilation experiments were conducted. Results indicate that lightning data assimilation had a positive impact on the following: information content, influencing several dynamical variables in the model (e.g., moisture, temperature, and winds), improving initial conditions, and partially improving WRF-NMM forecasts during several data assimilation cycles.

scholarly journals Internal Coordinated Development of China's Urbanization and its Spatiotemporal Evolution

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liangzhen Zang ◽  
Yiqing Su
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Spatial Data Analysis ◽  
Western China ◽  
Spatiotemporal Evolution ◽  
Coordinated Development ◽  
Urbanization Development ◽  
Coordination Degree

High urbanization quality, predominantly determined by the degree of internal coordinated development, is the most important factor in promoting urbanization development. Based on the panel data of 283 Chinese cities from 2007 to 2016, this paper analysed the internal coordination degree, spatial distribution and spatiotemporal evolution of urbanization using the methods of range standardization, entropy, and coupling and coordination models, as well as exploratory spatial data analysis. We found the following results: (1) The internal coordination degree of China’s urbanization was at a low level for a long time, but it presented a gradually increasing trend; (2) The internal coordinated development of urbanization exhibited an obvious spatial agglomeration. Specifically, it displayed a stepped pattern with a higher internal coordination degree in eastern China, a lower degree in western China, and a spatial distribution with multi-centre agglomeration and diffusion. (3) The spatial distribution of the internal coordinated development of urbanization was stable in most regions of China, only changing in a few. (4) The growth rate of the internal coordination degree of China’s urbanization presented the pattern of a dotted distribution, while the growth rate in western China was higher than in central and eastern China. The spatiotemporal evolution relates to the policies changes of China’s urbanization. In particular, the urbanization in China transfers its focus from population transfer to the development of quality from 2007 to 2016. To promote the sustainable and healthy development of China's new urbanization, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta shall focus on accelerating the transformation of economic development mode; The provinces located around the above three regions shall strengthen the upgrading and promotion of basic public services. The northeast and central provinces shall speed up the innovation of systems and mechanisms and gradually release the potential of urbanization development by promoting the mobility of urban population, and the vast majority of provinces in Western China shall further improve the spatial development potential for urbanization.

 Evaluation of high resolution WRF forecasts for Extreme Rainfall Events over Karnataka against high density in-situ observations 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajay Bankar ◽  
Rakesh Vasudevan
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Distinct Advantage ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Synoptic Conditions

<p><span>Extreme Rainfall Events (EREs) in India has increased many folds in recent decades. These severe weather events are generally destructive in nature causing flash floods, catastrophic loss of life and property over densely populated urban cities. Various cities in Karnataka, a southern state in India, witnessed many EREs recently. Appropriate advanced warning systems to predict these events are crucial for preparedness of mitigation strategy to reduce human casualty and socio economic loss. Mesoscale models are essential tools for developing an integrated platform for disaster warning and management. From a stakeholder/user pint of view, primary requirement to tackle ERE related damages is accurate prediction of the observed rainfall location, coverage and intensity in advance. Weather prediction models have inherent limitations imposed primarily by approximations in the model and inadequacies in data. Hence, it is important to evaluate the skill of these models for many cases under different synoptic conditions to quantify model skill before using them for operational applications. The objective of the study is to evaluate performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for several ERE cases in Karnataka at different model initial conditions. The EREs were identified from the distribution of rainfall events over different regions in Karnataka and those events comes under 1% probability were considered. We examined 38 ERE’s distributed over Karnataka for the period June to November for the years 2015-2019. WRF model is configured with 3 nested domains with outer, inner and innermost domains having resolution of 12 km, 9 km and 3 km respectively. Two sets of simulations are conducted in this study, i) staring at 12 hours prior to the ERE day (i.e. -1200 UTC) & ii) starting at 0000 UTC of the ERE day. Performance of the WRF model forecast is validated against 15 minutes rainfall observations from ~6000 rain gauge stations over Karnataka. During initial hours forecasts initiated at 1200 UTC has distinct advantage in terms of accuracy compared to those initiated at 0000 UTC for most of the cases. In general, model underpredict EREs and underprediction is relatively low for forecasts initiated at 12 00 UTC.</span></p>

scholarly journals Regionally Enhanced Global (REG) 4D-Var

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (12) ◽  
pp. 4015-4038
Author(s):  
Michael A. Herrera ◽  
Istvan Szunyogh ◽  
Adam Brainard ◽  
David D. Kuhl ◽  
Karl Hoppel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Computational Cost ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Atmospheric Flow ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Limited Area Model ◽  
Area Model

Abstract A regionally enhanced global (REG) data assimilation (DA) method is proposed. The technique blends high-resolution model information from a single or multiple limited-area model domains with global model and observational information to create a regionally enhanced analysis of the global atmospheric state. This single analysis provides initial conditions for both the global and limited-area model forecasts. The potential benefits of the approach for operational data assimilation are (i) reduced development cost, (ii) reduced overall computational cost, (iii) improved limited-area forecast performance from the use of global information about the atmospheric flow, and (iv) improved global forecast performance from the use of more accurate model information in the limited-area domains. The method is tested by an implementation on the U.S. Navy’s four-dimensional variational global data assimilation system and global and limited-area numerical weather prediction models. The results of the monthlong forecast experiments suggest that the REG DA approach has the potential to deliver the desired benefits.

Practical Uncertainties in the Limited Predictability of the Record-Breaking Intensification of Hurricane Patricia (2015)

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (10) ◽  
pp. 3535-3556 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert G. Nystrom ◽  
Fuqing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Doppler Radar ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Surface Drag ◽  
Maximum Wind ◽  
Peak Intensity ◽  
Secondary Circulations ◽  
Airborne Doppler Radar

Abstract Hurricane Patricia (2015) was a record-breaking tropical cyclone that was difficult to forecast in real time by both operational numerical weather prediction models and operational forecasters. The current study examines the potential for improving intensity prediction for extreme cases like Hurricane Patricia. We find that Patricia’s intensity predictability is potentially limited by both initial conditions, related to the data assimilation, and model errors. First, convection-permitting assimilation of airborne Doppler radar radial velocity observations with an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) demonstrates notable intensity forecast improvements over assimilation of conventional observations alone. Second, decreasing the model horizontal grid spacing to 1 km and reducing the surface drag coefficient at high wind speed in the parameterization of the sea surface–atmosphere exchanges is also shown to notably improve intensity forecasts. The practical predictability of Patricia, its peak intensity, rapid intensification, and the underlying dynamics are further investigated through a high-resolution 60-member ensemble initialized with realistic initial condition uncertainties represented by the EnKF posterior analysis perturbations. Most of the ensemble members are able to predict the peak intensity of Patricia, but with greater uncertainty in the timing and rate of intensification; some members fail to reach the ultimate peak intensity before making landfall. Ensemble sensitivity analysis shows that initial differences in the region beyond the radius of maximum wind contributes the most to the differences between ensemble members in Patricia’s intensification. Ensemble members with stronger initial primary and secondary circulations beyond the radius of maximum wind intensify earlier, are able to maintain the intensification process for longer, and thus reach a greater and earlier peak intensity.

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