scholarly journals On Minimizing the Ultimate Ruin Probability of an Insurer by Reinsurance

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Kasumo ◽  
Juma Kasozi ◽  
Dmitry Kuznetsov
Keyword(s):  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Block Method ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
Volterra Integrodifferential Equation ◽  
Heavy Tailed Distributions ◽  
Heavy Tailed ◽  
Hamilton Jacobi Bellman ◽  
And Diffusion

We consider an insurance company whose reserves dynamics follow a diffusion-perturbed risk model. To reduce its risk, the company chooses to reinsure using proportional or excess-of-loss reinsurance. Using the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) approach, we derive a second-order Volterra integrodifferential equation (VIDE) which we transform into a linear Volterra integral equation (VIE) of the second kind. We then proceed to solve this linear VIE numerically using the block-by-block method for the optimal reinsurance policy that minimizes the ultimate ruin probability for the chosen parameters. Numerical examples with both light- and heavy-tailed distributions are given. The results show that proportional reinsurance increases the survival of the company in both light- and heavy-tailed distributions for the Cramér-Lundberg and diffusion-perturbed models.

scholarly journals Estimating Ruin Probability in an Insurance Risk Model with Stochastic Premium Income Based on the CFS Method

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 982
Author(s):  
Yujuan Huang ◽  
Jing Li ◽  
Hengyu Liu ◽  
Wenguang Yu
Keyword(s):  
Fourier Series ◽  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Expansion Method ◽  
Nonparametric Estimator ◽  
Insurance Risk ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
Complex Fourier Series ◽  
Premium Income ◽  
Insurance Risk Model

This paper considers the estimation of ruin probability in an insurance risk model with stochastic premium income. We first show that the ruin probability can be approximated by the complex Fourier series (CFS) expansion method. Then, we construct a nonparametric estimator of the ruin probability and analyze its convergence. Numerical examples are also provided to show the efficiency of our method when the sample size is finite.

scholarly journals Dynamic Proportional Reinsurance and Approximations for Ruin Probabilities in the Two-Dimensional Compound Poisson Risk Model

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yan Li ◽  
Guoxin Liu
Keyword(s):  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Proportional Reinsurance ◽  
Two Dimensional ◽  
Compound Poisson ◽  
Compound Poisson Risk Model ◽  
Optimal Value ◽  
Hamilton Jacobi Bellman ◽  
Poisson Risk Model

We consider the dynamic proportional reinsurance in a two-dimensional compound Poisson risk model. The optimization in the sense of minimizing the ruin probability which is defined by the sum of subportfolio is being ruined. Via the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman approach we find a candidate for the optimal value function and prove the verification theorem. In addition, we obtain the Lundberg bounds and the Cramér-Lundberg approximation for the ruin probability and show that as the capital tends to infinity, the optimal strategies converge to the asymptotically optimal constant strategies. The asymptotic value can be found by maximizing the adjustment coefficient.

scholarly journals Gerber–Shiu Function in a Class of Delayed and Perturbed Risk Model with Dependence

Risks ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franck Adékambi ◽  
Essodina Takouda
Keyword(s):  
Time Delay ◽  
Diffusion Process ◽  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Equilibrium Distribution ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
Renewal Equations ◽  
Generalized Mixed Equilibrium ◽  
Defective Renewal Equations ◽  
Occurrence Times

This paper considers the risk model perturbed by a diffusion process with a time delay in the arrival of the first two claims and takes into account dependence between claim amounts and the claim inter-occurrence times. Assuming that the time arrival of the first claim follows a generalized mixed equilibrium distribution, we derive the integro-differential Equations of the Gerber–Shiu function and its defective renewal equations. For the situation where claim amounts follow exponential distribution, we provide an explicit expression of the Gerber–Shiu function. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the ruin probability.

scholarly journals The Perturbed Dual Risk Model with Constant Interest and a Threshold Dividend Strategy

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fanzi Zeng ◽  
Jisheng Xu
Keyword(s):  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
Threshold Dividend Strategy ◽  
Absolute Ruin ◽  
Dual Risk Model ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Constant Interest

We consider the perturbed dual risk model with constant interest and a threshold dividend strategy. Firstly, we investigate the moment-generation function of the present value of total dividends until ruin. Integrodifferential equations with certain boundary conditions are derived for the present value of total dividends. Furthermore, using techniques of sinc numerical methods, we obtain the approximation results to the expected present value of total dividends. Finally, numerical examples are presented to show the impact of interest on the expected present value of total dividends and the absolute ruin probability.

scholarly journals Ruin Probabilities of a Discrete-time Multi-risk Model

2015 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 367-379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrius Grigutis ◽  
Agneška Korvel ◽  
Jonas Šiaulys
Keyword(s):  
Discrete Time ◽  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Arrival Time ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Recursive Formula ◽  
Ruin Probabilities ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
Premium Rate ◽  
Insurance Business ◽  
Independent Series

In this work,  we investigate a  multi-risk model describing insurance business with  two or more independent series of claim amounts. Each series of claim amounts consists of independent nonnegative random variables. Claims of each series occur periodically with some fixed   inter-arrival time. Claim amounts occur until they   can be compensated by a common premium rate and the initial insurer's surplus.  In this article, wederive a recursive formula for calculation of finite-time ruin probabilities. In the case of bi-risk model, we present a procedure to calculate the ultimate ruin probability. We add several numerical examples illustrating application  of the derived formulas.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.itc.44.4.8635

scholarly journals Solution of Ruin Probability for Continuous Time Model Based on Block Trigonometric Exponential Neural Network

Symmetry ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 876
Author(s):  
Yinghao Chen ◽  
Chun Yi ◽  
Xiaoliang Xie ◽  
Muzhou Hou ◽  
Yangjin Cheng
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Classical Risk Model ◽  
Continuous Time Model ◽  
Time Model ◽  
Trial Solution ◽  
Premium Income

The ruin probability is used to determine the overall operating risk of an insurance company. Modeling risks through the characteristics of the historical data of an insurance business, such as premium income, dividends and reinvestments, can usually produce an integral differential equation that is satisfied by the ruin probability. However, the distribution function of the claim inter-arrival times is more complicated, which makes it difficult to find an analytical solution of the ruin probability. Therefore, based on the principles of artificial intelligence and machine learning, we propose a novel numerical method for solving the ruin probability equation. The initial asset u is used as the input vector and the ruin probability as the only output. A trigonometric exponential function is proposed as the projection mapping in the hidden layer, then a block trigonometric exponential neural network (BTENN) model with a symmetrical structure is established. Trial solution is set to meet the initial value condition, simultaneously, connection weights are optimized by solving a linear system using the extreme learning machine (ELM) algorithm. Three numerical experiments were carried out by Python. The results show that the BTENN model can obtain the approximate solution of the ruin probability under the classical risk model and the Erlang(2) risk model at any time point. Comparing with existing methods such as Legendre neural networks (LNN) and trigonometric neural networks (TNN), the proposed BTENN model has a higher stability and lower deviation, which proves that it is feasible and superior to use a BTENN model to estimate the ruin probability.

scholarly journals Estimates for the Finite-Time Ruin Probability of a Time-Dependent Risk Model with a Brownian Perturbation

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-5 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaiyong Wang ◽  
Yongfang Cui ◽  
Yanzhu Mao
Keyword(s):  
Finite Time ◽  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Finite Time Ruin Probability ◽  
Dependent Model ◽  
Heavy Tailed ◽  
Time Dependent Model ◽  
Asymptotic Upper Bound

In this paper, we consider a time-dependent risk model with a Brownian perturbation. In this model, there is a dependence structure between the claim sizes and their corresponding interarrival times. Assuming the claim sizes have subexponential distributions, we obtain the asymptotic lower bound of the finite-time ruin probability. When the claim sizes have distributions from the class L∩D, the asymptotic upper bound of the finite-time ruin probability has been presented. These results confirm that when the claim sizes are heavy-tailed, the asymptotics of the finite-time ruin probability of this time-dependent model are insensitive to the Brownian perturbation.

scholarly journals Threshold strategies for risk processes and their relation to queueing theory

2011 ◽  
Vol 48 (A) ◽  
pp. 29-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Onno J. Boxma ◽  
Andreas Löpker ◽  
David Perry
Keyword(s):  
Queueing Theory ◽  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
Threshold Strategy ◽  
Ruin Time ◽  
Risk Processes

We consider a risk model with threshold strategy, where the insurance company pays off a certain percentage of the income as dividend whenever the current surplus is larger than a given threshold. We investigate the ruin time, ruin probability, and the total dividend, using methods and results from queueing theory.

scholarly journals Asymptotic Ruin Probability of a Bidimensional Risk Model Based on Entrance Processes with Constant Interest Rate

Risks ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 135
Author(s):  
Hongmin Xiao ◽  
Lin Xie
Keyword(s):  
Ruin Probability ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Arrival Times ◽  
Interest Force ◽  
Heavy Tailed Distribution ◽  
Constant Interest Force ◽  
Heavy Tailed ◽  
Constant Interest Rate ◽  
Constant Interest

In this paper, the risk model with constant interest based on an entrance process is investigated. Under the assumptions that the entrance process is a renewal process and the claims sizes satisfy a certain dependence structure, which belong to the different heavy-tailed distribution classes, the finite-time asymptotic estimate of the bidimensional risk model with constant interest force is obtained. Particularly, when inter-arrival times also satisfy a certain dependence structure, these formulas still hold.

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