scholarly journals Research of Vulnerability for Fresh Agricultural-Food Supply Chain Based on Bayesian Network

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Yang ◽  
Haorui Liu
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Evaluation System ◽  
Operation Time ◽  
Weak Links ◽  
Agricultural Product ◽  
Accident Risk ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Dynamic Risk

Unbalanced supply and demand, bottleneck of transport capacity, seasonal cycle, and other factors lead to fragile supply chain of fresh agricultural products led by the platform, impeding smooth operation of the supply chain and even causing disruption risk. This paper studies the short-term and long-term vulnerability of the platform leading fresh agricultural product supply chain under the influence of logistics capital flow and information flow, defines its structure and the meaning of its vulnerability, analyzes the vulnerability of each link, and finds out the existing weak links in the supply chain through empirical research. The probability of accident is quantitatively analyzed by using the Bayesian Network. Firstly, the bow-tie model is used to identify the cause and consequence of the accident, and then it is transformed into the Bayesian Network model; then, the “Precursor Incident” information and prior probability are introduced to derive the posterior accident occurrence probability, and the probability of accident occurrence changing with time is quantitatively analyzed; finally, the dynamic risk calculation of fresh agricultural product trading center dominated by a certain platform was carried out. The results show that, with the increase of supply chain operation time and Precursor Incident, the probability of short-term supply chain vulnerability and accident risk present a significant increase trend, while the probability of long-term supply chain vulnerability and accident risk present a significant decrease trend. Therefore, it is suggested that enterprises should establish a dynamic risk evaluation system to monitor and predict the probability of event vulnerability, pay attention to “Precursor Incident,” and take measures to reduce it, such as effective integration of supply chain principal information, timely improvement of information integrated technologies, and comprehensive training on food safety and moral credibility.

scholarly journals Short-term and long-term outcomes of robotic, laparoscopic and open radical gastrectomy in gastric cancer: A single-center retrospective study

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Weifan Zhang ◽  
Xinhui Zhao ◽  
Zhao Liu ◽  
Hui Dang ◽  
Lei Meng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gastric Cancer ◽  
Lymph Nodes ◽  
Learning Curve ◽  
Operation Time ◽  
Open Gastrectomy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Outcome ◽  
Long Term Outcome ◽  
Estimated Blood Loss

Abstract Background: Few studies on the comparison among robotic, laparoscopic, and open gastrectomy had been reported in gastric cancer . The goal of this study was to evaluate the advantages of robotic-assisted gastrectomy (RAG) by comparing with laparoscopic-assisted gastrectomy(LAG) and open gastrectomy (OG). Methods: 147 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy were enrolled and retrospectively analyzed between January 2017 and July 2019. Short-term outcomes such as operation time, intraoperative estimated blood loss(EBL),number of retrieved lymph nodes, postoperative recovery, learning curve, and long-term outcome such as overall survival(OS) was compared among RAG, LAG and OG groups. Results: RAG group included 47 patients, 44 in the LAG, and 61 in the OG. Basic information such as gender, age, BMI, ASA degree were similar among three groups, and there were no statistically significances in pathological TNM staging, tumor resection extent, resection margin, methods of reconstruction( P ＞0.05). The cumulative sum(CUSUM) method showed that learning curve of RAG reached stability after 17 cases . For short-term outcomes, the RAG group had the shortest EBL( P =0.033), the shortest time to first flatus( P ＜0.001), shortest time to first intake liquid diet ( P =0.004),shortest postoperative hospital stay ( P =0.023)and the largest number of retrieved lymph nodes( P =0.044),the longest operation time( P ＜0.001), the most expensive treatment cost( P ＜0.001),however, there were no significant differences in postoperative drainage, postoperative white blood cell(WBC)count and early complications among three group( P ＞0.05). In addition to long-term outcome, similar OS was observed in three groups. Conclusion: Compared with LAG and OG, RAG has certain advantages in short-term outcomes and is a safe and reliable surgical method. But still need further prospective, multi-center research to confirm this.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON SUPPLY CHAIN AND LOGISTICS

2021 ◽  
Vol 57 (9) ◽  
pp. 7118-7124
Author(s):  
Mrs. Aparna Lalitkumar Patil Et. al.
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Supply Chain System ◽  
Production Logistics ◽  
Chain System ◽  
Entire World ◽  
Supply Chain Risks ◽  
The City

In early January 2020, coronavirus outbreak started to build up as a pandemic in the city of Wuhan in China, leading to social, human as well as economic disturbance, leaving no life untouched. COVID-19, the coronavirus pandemic impacted the production, logistics as well as the supply chain system in the entire world.  As companies, around the globe are trying to repair their shattered value chains in the short-term and reduce their supply chain risks in the long-term, India also has an exclusive chance to emerge as a business terminus during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

scholarly journals How to Bail Out a Defense Contractor: Cases on Securing a Supply Chain in extremis

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (96) ◽  
pp. 166-189
Author(s):  
James Hasik
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supplier Management ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Defense Contractors ◽  
The Past ◽  
Defense Contractor ◽  
Necessary And Sufficient ◽  
Industry Structures ◽  
Bail Out

How can governments effectively bail out faltering defense contractors? While the idea may seem politically distasteful, any defense ministry with domestic suppliers may view the problem as supplier management in extremis. Reviewing nine prominent bailouts of defense contractors from the past 50 years, the author draws two conclusions. Providing long-term demand is very likely necessary and sufficient to maintain industry structures. Providing short-term infusions of cash may be necessary to maintain programs, but it is not always sufficient. If legislators and defense officials wish to consider either approach for short-term or long-term objectives, they should also consider the historical lessons of the financial and information asymmetries between government and industry, and the general uncertainty over how technologies will evolve.

scholarly journals A Bayesian Network-Based Information Fusion Combined with DNNs for Robust Video Fire Detection

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 7624
Author(s):  
Byoungjun Kim ◽  
Joonwhoan Lee
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Visual Information ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Fire Detection ◽  
Majority Voting ◽  
Detection Accuracy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Bounding Boxes ◽  
Types Of Information

Fire is an abnormal event that can cause significant damage to lives and property. Deep learning approach has made large progress in vision-based fire detection. However, there is still the problem of false detections due to the objects which have similar fire-like visual properties such as colors or textures. In the previous video-based approach, Faster Region-based Convolutional Neural Network (R-CNN) is used to detect the suspected regions of fire (SRoFs), and long short-term memory (LSTM) accumulates the local features within the bounding boxes to decide a fire in a short-term period. Then, majority voting of the short-term decisions is taken to make the decision reliable in a long-term period. To ensure that the final fire decision is more robust, however, this paper proposes to use a Bayesian network to fuse various types of information. Because there are so many types of Bayesian network according to the situations or domains where the fire detection is needed, we construct a simple Bayesian network as an example which combines environmental information (e.g., humidity) with visual information including the results of location recognition and smoke detection, and long-term video-based majority voting. Our experiments show that the Bayesian network successfully improves the fire detection accuracy when compared against the previous video-based method and the state of art performance has been achieved with a public dataset. The proposed method also reduces the latency for perfect fire decisions, as compared with the previous video-based method.

scholarly journals The effect and long-term outcome of Partial Anterior Myometrial Resection and Reconstruction under tourniquet and/or prophylactic abdominal aorta balloon occlusion on the patients with placenta percreta 

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huidan Zhao ◽  
Chen Chen ◽  
Ya Tao ◽  
Zhuan Liu ◽  
Cai Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Blood Loss ◽  
Abdominal Aorta ◽  
Operation Time ◽  
Balloon Occlusion ◽  
Placenta Percreta ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Outcome ◽  
Long Term Outcome ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Background Patients with placenta accreta spectrum (PAS) disorders often experience overwhelming hemorrhage during cesarean. Placenta percreta is the most serious subtype. In this paper, we propose a new procedure in order to control intraoperative bleeding. We aimed to evaluate the effect and long-term outcome of Partial Anterior Myometrial Resection and Reconstruction under tourniquet and/or prophylactic abdominal aorta balloon occlusion on patients with placenta percreta. Methods In a retrospective study, data from patients with placenta percreta who delivered by cesarean section between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2019 were analyzed. Short-term and long-term outcomes were followed up by outpatient clinic and by phone. The quantity of estimated blood loss (EBL), operation time, urine tube time, hospital stay and short-term and long-term complications including fever, thrombosis, hematoma, breast feeding and menstruation problems, lower limb complaints, intrauterine adhesion and so on, were analyzed. Results For all cases, the mean EBL in the surgery was 1399 ± 948 mL, the mean operation time was 107 ± 35minutes, and the mean perioperative hospital stay was 9.6 ± 5.0 days. All the patients had a preserved uterus. Menstrual quantity decreased in 12 patients. Menstrual period prolonged in 11 cases. Uncomfortable abdomen symptoms happened in 9 cases after the surgery. Four cases got thrombosis and 3 got hematoma. Lower extremity discomfort was found in 6 patients. Conclusion Combined with prophylactic abdominal aorta balloon occlusion and/or tourniquet, Partial Anterior Myometrial Resection and Reconstruction is highly effective in reducing the intraoperative blood loss and hysterectomy in placenta percreta. But we should pay great attention to short-term and long-term complications, especially to the complications associated with aorta balloon occlusion.

scholarly journals Game—The Transportation Game

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Foroogh Abasian ◽  
Mikael Rönnqvist ◽  
Philippe Marier ◽  
Dag Fjeld
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Transportation Costs ◽  
Educational Game ◽  
Optimal Solutions ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Purchasing Cost ◽  
Hierarchical Decision ◽  
Individual Decisions ◽  
Forest Supply Chain

This paper presents an online educational game focusing on hierarchical procurement planning in a simulated forest supply chain with multiple companies. The purpose is to provide an understanding of the importance of individual decisions and their medium- to long-term impacts on the entire supply chain. The transportation game comprises three phases, each simulating hierarchical decision making when three competing companies (i.e., the game players) are making simultaneous decisions on the available resources. Each game phase also requires concurrent collaboration and competition. The phases represent different planning levels from long-term to short-term planning, considering the collaboration concept within the supply chain. The simulated supply chain objective is to minimize resource purchasing and transportation costs. The purchasing cost will be fixed after the first phase. The chance of decreasing transportation costs, however, is available until the end of the game. We develop three optimization models for each game phase. Once the game is finished, it compares the players’ results with optimal solutions prepared upfront. Finally, we present some comments about the game experience in various classrooms.

scholarly journals A New Bayesian Network-Based Risk Stratification Model for Prediction of Short-Term and Long-Term LVAD Mortality

ASAIO Journal ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 313-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natasha A. Loghmanpour ◽  
Manreet K. Kanwar ◽  
Marek J. Druzdzel ◽  
Raymond L. Benza ◽  
Srinivas Murali ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Stratification ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Risk Stratification Model

scholarly journals Terrorism and the global supply chain: where are your weak links?

2000 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-66
Author(s):  
Kathryn Dobie ◽  
L Milton Glisson ◽  
James Grant
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Global Supply Chain ◽  
Weak Links ◽  
Profound Impact ◽  
Terrorist Activity

For many years, managers have chosen to ignore the risks associated with acts of terrorism that can potentially and catastrophically affect the global supply chain. As producers and suppliers become more tightly tied through long term relationships, common communications and information technology, events affecting one member of the supply chain can have a profound impact on the ability of the rest of the network to operate. The purpose of this discourse is to highlight the linkages which leave a supply chain vulnerable in the case of direct or indirect disruption caused by unexpected terrorist activity.

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