scholarly journals Wind Power Prediction Based on Nonlinear Partial Least Square

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Wang ◽  
Yang Lei ◽  
Hui Cao
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

Wind power prediction is important for the smart grid safe operation and scheduling, and it can improve the economic and technical penetration of wind energy. The intermittent and the randomness of wind would affect the accuracy of prediction. According to the sequence correlation between wind speed and wind power data, we propose a method for short-term wind power prediction. The proposed method adopts the wind speed in every sliding data window to obtain the continuous prediction of wind power. Then, the nonlinear partial least square is adopted to map the wind speed under the time series to wind power. The model carries the neural network as the nonlinear function to describe the inner relation, and the outputs of hidden layer nodes are the extension term of the original independent input matrix to partial least squares regression. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, the real data of wind power with different working conditions are adopted in experiments. The proposed method, backpropagation neural network, radial basis function neural network, support vector machine, and partial least square are performed on the real data and their effectiveness is compared. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm has higher precision, and the real power running curves also verify that the proposed method can predict the wind power in short-term effectively.

scholarly journals Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using GA-BP Neural Network Based on DBSCAN Algorithm Outlier Identification

Processes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pei Zhang ◽  
Yanling Wang ◽  
Likai Liang ◽  
Xing Li ◽  
Qingtian Duan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Bp Neural Network ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Outlier Identification ◽  
Dbscan Algorithm ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

Accurately predicting wind power plays a vital part in site selection, large-scale grid connection, and the safe and efficient operation of wind power generation equipment. In the stage of data pre-processing, density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) algorithm is used to identify the outliers in the wind power data and the collected wind speed data of a wind power plant in Shandong Province, and the linear regression method is used to correct the outliers to improve the prediction accuracy. Considering the important impact of wind speed on power, the average value, the maximum difference and the average change rate of daily wind speed of each historical day are used as the selection criteria to select similar days by using DBSCAN algorithm and Euclidean distance. The short-term wind power prediction is carried out by using the similar day data pre-processed and unprocessed, respectively, as the input of back propagation neural network optimized by genetic algorithm (GA-BP neural network). Analysis of the results proves the practicability and efficiency of the prediction model and the important role of outlier identification and correction in improving the accuracy of wind power prediction.

Short-term wind power prediction based on improved small-world neural network

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (7) ◽  
pp. 3173-3185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuang-Xin Wang ◽  
Meng Li ◽  
Long Zhao ◽  
Chen Jin
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Small World ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

Application of the Combination Prediction Model in Forecasting the Short-Term Wind Power

2015 ◽  
Vol 733 ◽  
pp. 893-897
Author(s):  
Peng Yu Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Pso Algorithm ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Generalized Regression Neural Network ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Combination Forecasting ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

The accuracy of short-term wind power forecast is important for the power system operation. Based on the real-time wind power data, a wind power prediction model using wavelet neural network (WNN) is proposed. In order to overcome such disadvantages of WNN as easily falling into local minimum, this paper put forward using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm to optimize the weight and threshold of WNN. It’s advisable to use Support Vector Machine (SVM) to comparatively do prediction and put two outcomes as input vector for Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN) to do nonlinear combination forecasting. Simulation shows that combination prediction model can improve the accuracy of the short-term wind power prediction.

scholarly journals Forecasting Models for Wind Power Using Extreme-Point Symmetric Mode Decomposition and Artificial Neural Networks

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 650 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianguo Zhou ◽  
Xiaolei Xu ◽  
Xuejing Huo ◽  
Yushuo Li
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Frequency Component ◽  
High Frequency Component ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Combined Model ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

The randomness and volatility of wind power poses a serious threat to the stability, continuity, and adjustability of the power system when it is connected to the grid. Accurate short-term wind power prediction methods have important practical value for achieving high-precision prediction of wind farm power generation and safety and economic dispatch. Therefore, this paper proposes a novel combined model to improve the accuracy of short-term wind power prediction, which involves grey correlation degree analysis, ESMD (extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition), sample entropy (SampEn) theory, and a hybrid prediction model based on three prediction algorithms. The meteorological data at different times and altitudes is firstly selected as the influencing factors of wind power. Then, the wind power sub-series obtained by the ESMD method is reconstructed into three wind power characteristic components, namely PHC (high frequency component of wind power), PMC (medium frequency component of wind power), and PLC (low frequency component of wind power). Similarly, the wind speed sub-series obtained by the ESMD method is reconstructed into three wind speed characteristic components, called SHC (high frequency component of wind speed), SMC (medium frequency component of wind speed), and SLC (low frequency component of wind speed). Subsequently, the Bat-BP model, Adaboost-ENN model, and ENN (Elman neural network), which have high forecasting accuracy, are selected to predict PHC, PMC, and PLC, respectively. Finally, the prediction results of three characteristic components are aggregated into the final prediction values of the original wind power series. To evaluate the prediction performance of the proposed combined model, 15-min wind power and meteorological data from the wind farm in China are adopted as case studies. The prediction results show that the combined model shows better performance in short-term wind power prediction compared with other models.

Wavelet Neural Network Model for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

2014 ◽  
Vol 543-547 ◽  
pp. 806-812 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ye Chen
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Optimization Algorithm ◽  
Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm ◽  
Wavelet Neural Network ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

The accuracy of short-term wind power forecast is important to the power system operation. Based on the real-time wind power data, a wind power prediction model using wavelet neural network is proposed. At the same time in order to overcome the disadvantages of the wavelet neural network for only use error reverse transmission as a fixed rule, this paper puts forward using Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm to replace the traditional gradient descent method training wavelet neural network. Through the analysis of the measured data of a wind farm, Shows that the forecasting method can improve the accuracy of the wind power prediction, so it has great practical value.

Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on SVM with Backstepping Wind Speed of Power Curve

2012 ◽  
Vol 224 ◽  
pp. 401-405
Author(s):  
Xi Yun Yang ◽  
Peng Wei ◽  
Huan Liu ◽  
Bao Jun Sun
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Wind Farm ◽  
Prediction Method ◽  
Power Curve ◽  
Power Prediction ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Wind Power Forecasting ◽  
Wind Power Prediction

Accurate wind farm power prediction can relieve the disadvantageous impact of wind power plants on power systems and reduce the difficulty of the scheduling of power dispatching department. Improving accuracy of short-term wind speed prediction is the key of wind power prediction. The authors have studied the short-term wind power forecasting of power plants and proposed a model prediction method based on SVM with backstepping wind speed of power curve. In this method, the sequence of wind speed that is calculated according to the average power of the wind farm operating units and the scene of the power curve is the input of the SVM model. The results show that this method can meet the real-time needs of the prediction system, but also has better prediction accuracy, is a very valuable short-term wind power prediction method.

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