scholarly journals A New Method Based on Field Strength for Road Infrastructure Risk Assessment

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Yi Li ◽  
Yuren Chen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Field Strength ◽  
Driving Safety ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Strength Model ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
Driver Behaviour ◽  
Road Infrastructure ◽  
Strength Models ◽  
The Impact

Because road infrastructures have significant impact on driving safety, their risk levels need to be evaluated dynamically according to drivers’ perception. To achieve this, this paper proposes two field strength models to quantify the impact of road infrastructures on drivers. First, road infrastructures are classified into two types (continuous and discrete). Then, two field strength models for these types are proposed. Continuous field strength model describes the impact of long-belt-shape infrastructure by differential and integral methods. Discrete field strength model describes the static and dynamic characteristics of infrastructures. This model includes four parameters: mass of vehicles, mass of infrastructures, warning level, and kinetic energy of road infrastructures. The field strength is a relative concept, which changes with vehicle state. At the end of this paper, risk assessment principles are listed to clarify the nature of road infrastructure risk evaluation. A workflow of risk assessment and a case study are presented to illustrate the application of this novel method. The result of this study shows that ① the field strength is positively related to its risk level; ② the distribution of road infrastructure risks explains driver behaviour correctly; ③ drivers tend to keep driving in low-risk area. These findings help to explain the impact mechanism of road infrastructures on drivers, which can be applied in AI-based driving assistance system in the future.

Applying the risk principle to optimize accuracy and equity in correctional risk assessment: Results From a Simulation

2021 ◽  
pp. 0306624X2098652
Author(s):  
Grant Duwe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Ethnic Disparities ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Risk Principle ◽  
Changes In Risk ◽  
The Impact

As the use of risk assessments for correctional populations has grown, so has concern that these instruments exacerbate existing racial and ethnic disparities. While much of the attention arising from this concern has focused on how algorithms are designed, relatively little consideration has been given to how risk assessments are used. To this end, the present study tests whether application of the risk principle would help preserve predictive accuracy while, at the same time, mitigate disparities. Using a sample of 9,529 inmates released from Minnesota prisons who had been assessed multiple times during their confinement on a fully-automated risk assessment, this study relies on both actual and simulated data to examine the impact of program assignment decisions on changes in risk level from intake to release. The findings showed that while the risk principle was used in practice to some extent, the simulated results showed that greater adherence to the risk principle would increase reductions in risk levels and minimize the disparities observed at intake. The simulated data further revealed the most favorable outcomes would be achieved by not only applying the risk principle, but also by expanding program capacity for the higher-risk inmates in order to adequately reduce their risk.

scholarly journals Pollution Characteristics of Microplastics in Soils in Southeastern Suburbs of Baoding City, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 845 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuan Du ◽  
Handong Liang ◽  
Zhanping Li ◽  
Jie Gong
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry ◽  
Ferrous Metal ◽  
Reference Method ◽  
Negative Ion ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Environmental Media ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Water Ecosystems ◽  
The Impact

Microplastics (MPs) are emerging pollutants that exist in different environmental media. Because of their wide range and large potential environmental hazards, they have attracted widespread attention in recent years. At present, the research on MP is mostly concentrated on the water ecosystems, and the impact on soil ecosystems is less studied. In this study, 12 typical soil samples from southeastern suburbs of Baoding city were investigated and characterized by time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (TOF-SIMS) combined with mass high resolution mode and positive and negative ion imaging mode. Four types of MPs, poly (propylene) (PP), poly (vinyl chloride) (PVC), poly (ethylene terephthalate) (PET), and poly (amide 6) (PA6), were quickly identified, of which PET and PA6 accounted for the largest proportion of both up to 30.2%; the particle size of the obtained MPs ranged from 0 to 35 μm, of which the proportion of <10 μm MPs was more than 26.3%, while that of 20–25 μm and 25–35 μm MPs was relatively small (17.83% and 9.3%, respectively). Risk assessment results of the MP in the soil showed that the risk level of MPs in the non-ferrous metal industrial parks and in concentrated with small workshops areas is relatively high, and attention should be paid to such areas. In addition, the study provides a reference method for the investigation and risk assessment of MPs in terrestrial soils, coastal beaches, and sediments.

Application of Gustav in Entertainment Places Fire Risk Assessment

2014 ◽  
Vol 668-669 ◽  
pp. 1413-1416
Author(s):  
Yun Tao Zhao ◽  
Jia Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Fire Risk ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Full Life Cycle ◽  
Fire Risk Assessment ◽  
The Impact

Entertainment places have special structure; large fire load, personnel-intensive features, and function layout often change in the process of operation, so the fire risk level will change frequently. The current fire risk assessment studies for only one stage in entertainment places without considering the impact of risk factors at different stages. For this situation, this paper presents a fire risk assessment method in entertainment places based on full life cycle, divides the entertainment places into different stages, analyzes risk factors at different stages, and then uses the method of Gustav to get the fire risk levels of different stages. The assessment results show that the level of fire risk in entertainment places are different at different stages, you can take the appropriate risk control measures against fire risk factors at different stages, which has important guiding significance for fire risk management in entertainment places.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Groundwater Pollution in a Mining Area Based on Physical Processes

2019 ◽  
Vol 98 ◽  
pp. 09025 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhiwei Qi ◽  
Changlai Xiao ◽  
Bo Zhang ◽  
Xiujuan Liang ◽  
Ge Wang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Groundwater Pollution ◽  
Single Point ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Aquifer Vulnerability ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
The Impact

At present, the study of groundwater pollution risk assessment is generally based on the study of groundwater vulnerability. The impact of the pollutants themselves has not been paid more attention. The assessment of the risk of groundwater pollution should include two aspects: one is the contaminated nature of the aquifer itself and the other is spatial distribution of the pollutant. The vulnerability of the aquifer is only the natural susceptibility of the aquifer to the contaminant. Therefore, the risk assessment of groundwater pollution should also reflect the distribution and transport of pollutants in an aquifer. This study takes a tailings area as an example, and puts forward the risk assessment method of groundwater pollution based on physical processes. Before aquifer contamination occurs, the experts determine spatial distribution of each risk level according to the surrounding economic and social sensitivity conditions and hydrogeological conditions; and then use the numerical model to invert the intensity of the pollution source corresponding to each risk level. The results show that this method can express the distribution in space and time of risk level. For a single point source of contamination, this method is better than the previous based on aquifer vulnerability risk assessment method.

scholarly journals A Study on Coastal Flooding and Risk Assessment under Climate Change in Mid-Western Coast of Taiwan

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tai-Wen Hsu ◽  
Dong-Sin Shih ◽  
Chi-Yu Li ◽  
Yuan-Jyh Lan ◽  
Yu-Chen Lin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Western Coast ◽  
Wave Condition ◽  
The Impact

This study integrated coastal-watershed models and combined a risk assessment method to develop a methodology to investigate the impact resulting from coastal disasters under climate change. The mid-western coast of Taiwan suffering from land subsidence was selected as the demonstrative area for the vulnerability analysis based on prediction of sea level rise (SLR), wave run-up, overtopping, and coastal flooding under the scenarios of 2020 to 2039. Database from tidal gauges and satellite images were used to analyze sea level rise using EEMD (Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition). Extreme wave condition and storm surge were estimated by numerical simulation using WWM (Wind Wave Model) and POM (Princeton Ocean Model). Coastal inundation was then simulated via WASH123D watershed model. The risk map of study areas based on the analyses of vulnerability and disaster were established using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) technique. Predictions of sea level rise, the maximum wave condition and storm surge under the scenarios of 2020 to 2039 are presented. The results indicate that the sea level at the mid-western coast of Taiwan will rise in an average of 5.8 cm, equivalent to a rising velocity of 2.8 mm/year. The analysis indicates that Wuqi, Lukang, Mailiao, and Taixi townships are susceptive, low resistant and low resilient, and reaches the high risk level. The assessment provides that important information for making adaption policy in the mid-western coast of Taiwan.

The analytical approach to ornithological collision risk assessment (the example of the «Boryspil» international airport)

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
I Horobtsov ◽  
◽  
M Radomska ◽  
L Cherniak ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Analytical Approach ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Flight Safety ◽  
Collision Risk ◽  
Synanthropic Species ◽  
The Family ◽  
Impact Area ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
The Impact

The paper considers issues of interaction between aviation and avifauna, relevant in terms of flight safety and safety of habitats for birds living in the impact area of ​​ airports. A number of parameters of aircraft and air traffic flow significantly affect the behavior and diversity of birds living in the respective areas. The analysis showed that species composition of avifauna at airports includes very few fully synanthropic species, while semi-synanthropes, such as members of the family Corvidae, are often found in airport areas and, due to their size and behavior, are of major hazard to aircrafts. A variety of methods for assessing the level of ornithological hazard are proposed by researchers and used in some countries. The authors presented a matrix method for assessing the risk of collisions between birds and aircraft, adapted to the conditions of Ukrainian airports. In particular, this method takes into account the peculiarities of avifauna monitoring carried out at the airports of Ukraine and the range of data on birds that may be available at these enterprises. The proposed analytical approach to ornithological risk assessment and ornithological management was tested on the example of Boryspil Airport, for which the attractiveness of the territory for birds, focal species of birds that need the most attention during ornithological observations by the airport staff, and the risk level were determined. It is necessary to expand the list of indicators according to which data should be collected during routine ornithological monitoring of airports.

scholarly journals Risk Area Identification Model of Bus Bay Stops Based on Distribution of Conflicts

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Weiwei Qi ◽  
Lianjie Ruan ◽  
Yue Zhi ◽  
Bin Shen
Keyword(s):  
Traffic Flow ◽  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Flow Characteristics ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Risk Area ◽  
Potential Conflict ◽  
Bus Stop ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
The Impact

Effective identification of the risk area of the bus bay stop is a prerequisite for the enhancement of traffic safety. This study proposes a method of identifying the risk area based on the distribution of traffic conflicts. Firstly, the traffic flow data of the bus stop is collected by drones and video recognition software, and the traffic flow characteristics of the bus stop are analyzed by the mathematical and statistical methods. Secondly, using the gray clustering evaluation theory, on the basis of the rasterization of the functional area of the bus bay stop, a risk level model based on the index system of conflict rate, conflict severity, and potential conflict risk is proposed. Finally, take a bus stop in Guangzhou as an example to verify the solution. The results show that the constructed model can effectively identify the risk areas of bus bay stops. The risk areas of the bus bay stops are concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the bus stop, which proves that the impact of bus exiting the stop on the surrounding traffic is greater than the process of bus entering the stop; the traffic risk areas of lanes near the bus stop are concentrated, and the severity of conflicts is low. The traffic risk zone of the lane far away from the bus stop is widely distributed, and the severity of conflict is higher. The research results can provide a basis for the micro safety performance evaluation and safety optimization of bus bay stops, which has strong theoretical and practical significance.

How Tree Risk Assessment Methods Work: Sensitivity Analyses of Sixteen Methods Reveal the Value of Quantification and the Impact of Inputs on Risk Ratings

2020 ◽  
Vol 46 (6) ◽  
pp. 402-431
Author(s):  
M.B. Norris ◽  
G.M. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽  
Assessment Methods ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Group 2 ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risk Scale

Sixteen tree risk assessment methods were subjected to sensitivity analysis to determine which factors most influenced the output of each method. The analyses indicate the relative influence that the input variables exert on the final risk value. Excel was used to create a simple ± 25% or ± 1 rank change (depending on the method) for each criterion, with the change to the output recorded as a percentage. Palisade’s @Risk software was used to undertake a Monte Carlo (with Latin Hypercube sampling) simulation of 5000 iterations based on the input variables and output formula. From the simulation, multivariate stepwise regression was undertaken to determine the influence of each method’s input variables in determining the output values. Results from the sensitivity analysis indicate some clear and strong differences amongst the 16 methods, reflecting that the underlying mathematics, input categories, ranges, and scaling influence the way that different methods process and express risk. It is not surprising that methods perform differently in different circumstances and express risk level differently. The analyses demonstrated that most methods placed too great an emphasis on limited aspects of risk assessment. Most methods strongly focused on the hazard or defect aspects of assessment and the likelihood of failure rather than the consequence aspect of an assessment. While methods were uniquely different, they could be placed into 3 broad groups: Group 1 methods produced a normal distribution with most values around the mean; Group 2 methods produced outputs at the lower end of the risk scale; and Group 3 methods produced outputs evenly if not continuously across the risk scale. Users of tree risk assessment should understand the strengths and weaknesses of any method used, as it could be relatively simple to challenge the results of a risk assessment based on limitations inherent in the underlying methodology.

scholarly journals Traffic Accident Risk Assessment Framework for Qassim, Saudi Arabia: Evaluating the Impact of Speed Cameras

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (15) ◽  
pp. 6682
Author(s):  
Meshal Almoshaogeh ◽  
Radfan Abdulrehman ◽  
Husnain Haider ◽  
Fawaz Alharbi ◽  
Arshad Jamal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Road Safety ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Accident Risk ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Road Accidents ◽  
The Impact

Saudi Arabia is one of the countries with the highest number of road accidents and associated fatalities in the world. Speeding has been identified as an important cause of increased traffic accidents, which also aggravate their severity. Road safety improvement strategies are primarily based on the accurate identification of accident hotspots. Installing speed cameras at a network level is an expensive road safety measure, and its spatiotemporal effectiveness should be assessed. In this study, a traffic accident risk assessment framework has been developed and implemented on the 84 km long Buraydah Ring Road in the Qassim region of Saudi Arabia. The selected highway was divided into 42 (×2 km long) segments using the ArcGIS software. A risk scoring scheme was developed to incorporate both the frequency and severity of road accidents. Speed cameras installation at various segments showed a 70% decline in total accident counts, 53% in accidents with property damage, 84% decline in accidents causing injury, and complete absence of accidents with fatalities. The 48% segments were identified as hotspots with risk level ≥ medium, while the speed cameras installation completely eliminated the hotspots from the study area. The proposed framework can be implemented on major high-speed highways, accommodating high traffic volumes, for hotspot identification and evaluation of various road safety measures in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere.

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