scholarly journals Particle Swarm Optimization-Based Support Vector Regression for Tourist Arrivals Forecasting

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsiou-Hsiang Liu ◽  
Lung-Cheng Chang ◽  
Chien-Wei Li ◽  
Cheng-Hong Yang
Keyword(s):  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Particle Swarm ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Swarm Optimization

The tourism industry has become one of the most important economic sectors for governments worldwide. Accurately forecasting tourism demand is crucial because it provides useful information to related industries and governments, enabling stakeholders to adjust plans and policies. To develop a forecasting tool for the tourism industry, this study proposes a method that combines feature selection (FS) and support vector regression (SVR) with particle swarm optimization (PSO), named FS–PSOSVR. To ensure high forecast accuracy, FS and a PSO algorithm are employed to, respectively, select reliable input variables and to identify the optimal initial parameters of SVR. The proposed method was tested using a data set of monthly tourist arrivals to Taiwan from January 2006 to December 2016. The results reveal that the errors obtained using FS–PSOSVR are comparatively smaller than those obtained using other methods, indicating that FS–PSOSVR is an effective method for forecasting tourism demand.

scholarly journals Short-term power load forecasting based on support vector machine and particle swarm optimization

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 174830181879706 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song Qiang ◽  
Yang Pu
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Influencing Factors ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Particle Swarm ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Swarm Optimization

In this work, we summarized the characteristics and influencing factors of load forecasting based on its application status. The common methods of the short-term load forecasting were analyzed to derive their advantages and disadvantages. According to the historical load and meteorological data in a certain region of Taizhou, Zhejiang Province, a least squares support vector machine model was used to discuss the influencing factors of forecasting. The regularity of the load change was concluded to correct the “abnormal data” in the historical load data, thus normalizing the relevant factors in load forecasting. The two parameters are as follows Gauss kernel function and Eigen parameter C in LSSVM had a significant impact on the model, which was still solved by empirical methods. Therefore, the particle swarm optimization was used to optimize the model parameters. Taking the error of test set as the basis of judgment, the optimization of model parameters was achieved to improve forecast accuracy. The practical examples showed that the method in the work had good convergence, forecast accuracy, and training speed.

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